20 million views on Youtube... seriously, what the fuck is wrong with people? This is pure awful. I need to go through a good streak, I can't take having to post this shit.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
20 million views on Youtube... seriously, what the fuck is wrong with people? This is pure awful. I need to go through a good streak, I can't take having to post this shit.
My day was way too wild for a last day of the month "light day." I mean... you work all month, scraping together money here and there from the market and then you go and give a big chunk back on the last day? Always feels shitty.
I was down $1500 early and managed to trim my loss to commissions only. But it's not the way I like things to go down anymore.
The RO, naturally, kicked ass. Out of 27 traders, 22 finished positive. I was number 20 of 27... remember, that's a gross number. So I lost money today (and hence will post awful music later) but I was gross positive.
Here's the top 3:
1. $14,167 on 375k shares traded.
2. $12,444 on 174k shares traded.
3. $7,307 on 119k shares traded.
And the bottom:
1. -$4,301 on 101k shares traded.
2. -$1,829 on 700 shares traded.
3. -$317 on 35k shares traded.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Given that I was flat today, I had a hard time deciding what music to post. I didn't lose money, so I can't see punishing myself with something I totally hate, but then, everyone banked big and I didn't, so I can't reward myself either.
So I post a good song from a band that I generally think is very overrated. They had some good songs, but they all seemed to be ripoffs.
Umm... completely ridiculous. The RO is making too much money and I can't take it. I finished the day flat. I just couldn't get it together.
But when you see numbers like this, it gives you an idea of what kind of potential is out there right now.
Out of 26 traders, 23 were positive, or 88%. I was number 22 of 26 today, so yeah, I was just positive. Still, I won't be celebrating with good music, because I can only look at my performance today as failure. It was a good day and I should have made good money, especially after my confidence building day yesterday.
Here's the top 3:
And the bottom:
Also, 6 traders finished up over $10gs each, and 14 finished up over $1000. Crazy.
(I've decided to chop this post into 2 parts, since it's kind of long...)
This past weekend, Judy and I took a road trip to visit her brother, who lives in the "cradle of civilization," Staten Island, New York. Staten Island is a classic place, and worth visiting if you miss the 80s.
Bring your "wifebeater," sweat suit, and hair gel.
Anyway, on our way home, I decided to be a good son and stop at my mother's house. Shortly after we arrived, the skies darkened, winds turned the leaves on trees, and a bizarre light suffused the area. In a matter of minutes, the power was out and we were in the basement rummaging for candles.
All weekend long I felt very in touch with my mortality. Perhaps it was because we hadn't seen Judy's brother in a while and his hairline had receded a bit, or perhaps it was because when we sat down to play Risk we found tallies of games played years ago. I don't know exactly. But for whatever reason, I had this feeling that my daughter was growing quickly, and that people I love were getting old while I wasn't paying attention.
I felt the power of time.
And on another level, thoughts of my own mortality paid me a visit as I lay in bed unable to sleep at 2am on Saturday night. The bedroom window was open, and sitting on a concrete wall in front of the house, a girl spoke on her phone.
Her half of the conversation went something like this:
"He will be WASHED. I'm gonna WASH his ass!" Pause. "BITCH, I already been in jail so don't think I fucking care. He's gonna git WASHED."
I crept over to the window holding my breath, and looked down. She shone yellow under the streetlight, her back to the house, hand waving in the night, alone, yelling into her phone. I was waiting for a gunshot. I was hoping her mother would come and find her or something...
So the thing is, once the power went out at my mom's house, I suddenly felt the urge to "stock up" on supplies. To get stuff. I said to Judy, "Let's go shopping." I don't think I've said those three words, in that order, to Judy, ever. She looked at me as if I was about to die or something. She was seriously concerned.
"What's wrong with you?" she questioned.
"Nothing," I said. "Let's go get stuff."
"What stuff?" she wanted to know.
"I dunno. I just feel the need to get some stuff. I'll know what I need, when I see it."
And so 15 minutes later, my mom was flashing her "membership card" at some 90 year-old security guy, and we were strolling into a Costco.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
It was a good day for the RO. I only have approximate numbers, since there's a problem with the software that generates our report. I also don't have up/down percentage... and that sucks, because it's my favorite number.
I had my best day since January today. But I was way down on the office list, as many traders made good size.
Here's the top 3:
And the bottom:
As for the Costco post, I'm still working on it. Instead of editing it today, I got my haircut, where I witnessed two septuagenarians duke it out...
One guy was there just to get his mustache trimmed, and when the barber asked the other dude to just wait 1 minute for him to trim the dude's mustache (who arrived after the other dude, so he was technically behind him in line) a yelling match ensued. As you can imagine, I had great fun with this even though I pretended to be very interested in a 2003 issue of National Geographic. People are just silly.
As for the market, it's on crack.
I'm very happy with my trading performance today. Yesterday was my worst day of the month, and I started today in the red due to early losses in CAM and an ill conceived short in CQB.
CAM was an HCPG play that chopped around, and CQB was a short based on the weakness in FDP, which got "destructed" after it reported earnings.
So after getting "smokeled," I cut my size and made good decisions to get back to green and then make up my losses from yesterday and then some.
First, I caught a short in CF after he couldn't regain his high and made a little over a point.
Then, I bought some AKS on the strength in X and made a little over a point. Also, the whole time I was riding BEAV down. It was the first time in a while where I had a few trades all working out at the same time and it felt great.
Still, volume in the market is light today, so I'm not pressing my luck.
In the summer, when the volume is low, there's a different flow to the market. Trade the morning, take the middle of the day easy, and then see how things close.
Trade Mondays very lightly (volume is always very low on summer Mondays), get a little more aggressive Tues-Thurs, and then trade Friday morning and take off in the afternoon.
Save your energy for this fall and give your eyes a rest. Enjoy the summer weather while you can.
Monday, July 28, 2008
It was a crappy day for the RO. When's the last time I said that? Never. Oh, and check out that volume, below 1.2 billion... there's the correlation. Low volume=shitty trading environment.
Contrast that with the VO. Damn the VO is lame. You guys see what I did to that Jorge guy? I washed him. He's done.
Anyway, out of 26 traders, 13 were profitable, or 50%. I was #20 of 26... so if you're doing your math correctly, you know we have some bad music coming.
Here's how the top three finished:
And the bottom:
See you manana, with my "Costco post."
Good morning little bunnies.
-you, July 28th, 2008
I just called you a bunny, and you're helpless there, staring at the screen.
Anyway, I had an odd weekend that involved my first-ever trip to Costco, a semi-tornado, and the "cradle of civilization." I am processing all that happened and will have an appropriate post up about it all later today or tomorrow... or whenever I recover.
Posted by Dinosaur Trader at 8:45 AM
Friday, July 25, 2008
I have a nightmarish weekend ahead of me. Mainly because I will be forced to drive, twice, on what is perhaps the worst road in the United States.
Coincidence or not, the road leads to the region of the world in which "the Fly" abodes. It is littered with Dunkin Donuts and other "big box" retailers. It's also filled with "gypsy cabs" and the dreaded "female driver in large white SUV."
If I survive the ordeal, I will write a post about it.
The good news is that on the other side of the road, is my brother in law, who is a formidable Risk opponent. I love the game of Risk. Mostly because it allows me to proclaim my dominance over other people, in a friendly way.
Anyway, trade was wild early for me, as I played a retracement in CPHD.
Before I made money, I lost a lot. Clearly, not an HCPG type trade. Given the volume in the market and the ridiculous money being made by my office mates, I have decided to suspend my laser-like allegiance to the HCPG method. I'm still making trades according to it, but I've opened up my market strategy a bit, to take advantage of the volatility.
Anyway, I'm green again. I've had a good streak, and think I deserve a half day. So I'm outta here.
Enjoy your weekend.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
So far, no update... should the report come through, I'll update this link.
I had a wild day. I was actually having a bona fide "good day" and kind of fucked it all up. I still ended nice, but way off my highs.
Importantly, I've gotten a bit of a "taste" again, and am thinking more aggressively. Aggressive trading is what this current market is all about.
Check back in a bit...
Here we go. Out of 27 traders, 24 were positive, or 88%. I was #16 of 27.
Here's the top dogs.
And the bottom...
Good music drops with the sun.
-John McCain, pictured here enjoying a swim, in 1978
A day after John McCain says that George Bush deserves credit for causing the drop in crude (from $140 to $125... let's forget about that rise from $40 to $140) it seems that the cause may be just another failing company.
When it goes back up to $140 in a few weeks, who will we have to blame? Obama?
First the idiot SUV drivers in their monsters got their comeuppance via $5 gasoline... and now, annoying cell phone yakkers get theirs via brain cancer!
Okay, I kid... brain cancer isn't funny. Even if Dennis Kneale got it, it wouldn't be funny. Actually, that'd be tough to call.
Oh, and let's all shed a tear for Ford and their 1983 world outlook. Sorry about those truck sales, guys.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Another wild day. If you trade NYSE stocks, you have to love the volume. 1.7 billion shares traded on a balmy July day. Nice.
Out of 29 traders, 20 were positive, or 68%. I was 16 of 29. 14 traders finished up over $1000. I use $1000 as a benchmark... so the fact that half the traders in the office had good days, is meaningful, even if only 68% were green today. It was a good day to trade.
Here's the top 3:
And the bottom... a bit ugly today.
Truly, July and August seem to want to usurp October and November as the best months of the year to trade.
The moves are nothing short of ridiculous, day in and day out. Banks, coals, ferts, oils, natty gas... you name it, they're moving, points at a time.
The opportunities are enormous and the profits (and losses) can be huge.
Keep your head.
I made a decent amount today and am calling it quits until the afternoon. They're out cutting the trees again and I need my daily dose of perspective, via visiting the ocean.
Top trader in my office was up $34k at 11:00. Not me...
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Another amazing day for the RO. This time, it wasn't one or two guys making the cheese. The cheese was spread... (sorry)
Out of 25 traders, 21 were positive, or 84%. 18 traders made over $1000. I was 19 of 25.
Here's the top numbers.
And on the downside...
Some good music forthcoming. I know the posting has been spotty... the waves have been unreal. Believe me, when it's rainy and flat, I'll be writing more again.
Jon interviewed Richard Bitner, author of "Confessions Of A Subprime Lender." Ultimately, I think the blame for the subprime mortgage mess should fall on the nasty "oil speculators," but that's just me.
Monday, July 21, 2008
We're halfway through the summer here. My town and every surrounding town is inundated by idiots who don't know how to drive.
Still, despite my general feels of anger, I occasionally feel sympathy towards the people who come from "the city." Like yesterday for example. I was rinsing my daughter off at an outdoor shower by the beach when I overheard the smallest tidbit from a cell phone conversation. There it is, below, in its entirety.
"Oh my gawd! Like, grilled cheese? You're gonna get a grilled cheese? That's too funny! Eh! Eh! Eh! Eh! Eh! EEEEEEEWWWWW!"
Call me a "dick," but Labor Day couldn't come fast enough...
Friday, July 18, 2008
In a complete error of judgement, "the Fly" has seen fit to mock my post on perspective.
I assume this is some type of revenge for when I "gayed up" his site back in January, or for when I attempted to unionize the PG.
In time, he will pay.
However, that bit about the "War Board" was quite funny...
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Well, this is a special market for traders.
Out of 27 traders, 25 were profitable, or 93%.
Top 3 break down like this...
And the bottom...
I was 15 of 27.
Just a reminder, these numbers are gross. How'd you do? Brag a bit in the comment section... How about the VO? Chumps, right?
Oh, and NYSE volume was about 2 billion. That's what I'm talking about!
NOTE: My blog has been loading slow here... anyone else having that issue? I just removed a lot from my sidebar to see if that clears up the problem.
I'm not going to get into my day. I think I traded as many shares as I have in the last 2 months, today.
I'm exhausted and really, unable to write too much now. I'll have the RO report up later. It must have been a record day for the office... or at least close.
Posted by Dinosaur Trader at 4:25 PM
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
The numbers today are staggering...
Out of 26 traders, 23 were profitable, or 88%.
Top 3 break down like this...
The bottom 3 (the only negative numbers, in fact):
I was 18 of 26.
What's amazing about the numbers today is really how broadly the wealth was spread out... 17 traders were up at least $1000 today... I was the 18th... sigh....
Oh, and no surprise... it looks like the volume is back in the market. The NYSE traded over 1.7 billion shares today.
Last night, I caught the best wave of my life and it taught me a lesson.
The wave taught me the following, (I'm paraphrasing) it said, "DT, stop being such a dick."
All day, my head was full of fuzz because some poor Hispanic dudes were outside cutting down trees. All day I forgot that I have a healthy family, live in a beautiful spot in the world and altogether, have it pretty damn good.
I just forgot and I let some bullshit trump the larger picture.
I paddled out into uncomfortably large surf. The report put the swell at 5-7 feet but it was clean and deep (high tide) so it felt even larger. All of my close friends were on the beach as were my wife and daughter. We were all eating dinner when I decided to "go take a few."
Earlier, some kid in a pink ocean kayak tried paddling directly into the break. Within 2 minutes, he was separated from the kayak and getting sucked out by a strong rip current. On the shore, no one seemed to notice.
I was talking to a friend about nothing... he was there, talking about real estate, and I just started walking away, following the kid's head as it was pulled out deeper with the current. He was probably 20 yards out, past the main shorebreak, but getting rolled by the constant white water from the larger waves breaking further out. I watched, feeling pretty helpless, as I walked down the beach closer to where he was.
He started to flail his arms and panic.
Jesus Fucking Christ, I thought.
I bumped into a hot blond in a pink bikini taking pictures of the whole thing with a fancy camera. I couldn't take my eyes off of that head. I was just walking completely transfixed and terrified. I couldn't swim out there and get him, even though I surf, I'm just not the strongest swimmer. I mean I can swim well, but I didn't have a board, or any flotation device... it would have been a questionable procedure.
There were surfers out to the right. That's where the "takeoff" is. The wave rolls in and peels to the left (surfers right) and basically ends close to the where the rip current was pulling. So it was maddening to watch 3 or 4 surfers pull off of waves not 20 feet from the kid and not even notice him there.
Thank goodness for the fat longboarder.
Honestly, I had never seen this dude before. He was fat like a dumptruck and on a huge yellow and pink longboard. The thing must have been over 10 feet long, wide, and thick. The first thing he did after splashing off the wave, was to go over to the kid and let him grab onto his board. Then the two of them proceeded to kick together out of the rip and towards the shore. They got completely pummeled by the shorebreak... but made it to dry sand.
The kayak kid just bent over at his knees and heaved for about 30 seconds. The fat longboarder walked right by me. He had a face, wide, dark, and deeply carved, that had seen a lot of sun.
He came from the ocean and he saved the guy's life.
There was no applause. No one slapped him on the back. No one had even noticed. And I was lost in a state of bewilderment. I couldn't believe that someone could just die like that, so easily, on a perfect summer night, on a beach full of people eating grilled chicken and drinking white wine.
But man, people die all the time. And why should we deny it?
I couldn't stop talking about it for the rest of the evening.
"Did you see the dude on the pink kayak?" I'd say.
No one had.
So I had this all on my mind when I took that same rip current out to the lineup. I paddled right over the spot where that kid had flailed. The surf was big for me and my heart was beating faster than it really needed to.
Just then I heard a familiar voice. "Hey DT!" It was a relatively new friend of mine and he was paddling up next to me. "You look like you saw a ghost, man. What's up?"
"It's huge out here. I'm just a bit out of my league." I explained.
"Ah, you're fine. Enjoy this. It's not going to be here much longer." And off he paddled, the picture of insouciance.
As he said this, someone in the lineup yelled "Outside!" and the horizon seemed to lift. A huge set was feathering out there and was sure to break before it reached us. It did, heavily and with a rumble that gave the water some extra texture. With a deafening hiss, the white water rushed to where I straddled my board.
Now I have a longboard. It's thick and buoyant. When a large wave breaks over me, I have to "turtle roll" which means I paddled towards the white water, take a deep breath, and then grasp both rails of my board, and roll over with it into the wave, fin side of the board facing the sky.
Then, with my legs, I kick towards the wave for all I'm worth.
I rolled through that first wave and looked around. Heads were popping up here and there, many separated from their boards, and a foam was sizzling on the surface. Oddly, and I remember this exactly, it smelled of fresh laundry.
The second wall of white water rolled toward me with the same force and speed as the first and I "turtled" under it as well. Man, my heart was thumping. I saw my friend paddling further outside, i.e., away from the shore, towards the open ocean horizon. The third wave just swallowed him and I was forced to roll again.
After that huge set, a calm descended onto the scene.
In the setting sun, most surfers looked kind of yellow. Due to all the white water, the surface of the sea was soft and foamy and the rising air bubbles touching the face of the water made a cool "shhhhhhh" sound. In this peaceful moment, I began to paddle for the next wave.
After the last set, the wave didn't seem like much. But it was my perspective playing games with me. It was large enough. I paddled and the wave picked me up easily. I slid down the drop and just saw it stretch out ahead to my right. A slowly building wall of light green water, and white foam.
I didn't "work it" by tearing up and down it like a maniac. I managed a couple of turns up and down the face of the wave but quickly realized I needed more speed if I was to continue along the line without getting "closed out" on. So I stepped up on my board, gained speed, and tore down the line.
The wave changed character as I moved closer to shore. What really happened, is that I had reached the rip, and so the water rushing out to the horizon from the shore met the wall of water that I was on, which was racing towards the shore. At this point, I got completely "destructed" as the wave picked right up and threw me down, hard.
Under the water, which was now, quite dark and gloomy, I searched for light to find the "top." It seemed like forever under there, always does, and I wondered if anyone was watching my drama unfold from the shore, as I had watched the pink kayak guy. But you know, it wasn't all that dramatic afterall, I quickly surfaced, in the rip of course, and was lucky enough to jump onto my board just before another avalanche of white water pushed me to shore.
That one wave was my entire session.
I pulled myself out of the water (which, given the circumstances of the shorebreak and the rip, was quite difficult) slid my board under my arm, and walked over to Judy.
"You see that?" I said, all excited.
"No. What?" She was brushing some sand off our daughter's butt.
"That wave I caught! It was massive! My best ride ever!"
"No, sorry... it's hard to watch all the time. By the way, Frank's birthday is gonna be this Saturday. Jill just told me."
And I thought then about that kid on the pink kayak again. And about perspective. And the difference between being out in the rip, in the waves, and standing on the shore. And the horizon, and how even it changes and is inconstant.
And just writing this now, I think about my best friend, who died almost 9 years ago, suddenly, and I wish that he could've been there tonight, standing on the shore with his kid and Judy, not watching me catch the ride of my life.
And I figured that most of the time I'm a selfish fuck, but every now and then, you catch a glimpse of light. And how important it is to remember what the light looks like when things go dark so that you know how to find your way back up to the "top."
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Seriously, I just spent 10 minutes trying to find a lid to match a bowl. And the whole time, as I knelt on the floor wading through our Tupperware collection (which has now been infiltrated by Gladware and shit like that), the sink was running.
But I couldn't tear myself away to turn it off.
I had to find the lid. Had to.
In the end, I didn't find the lid.
Instead, I had to use a piece of Tupperware that was really far too large for my needs and has now stressed out the refrigerator situation.
I hate the shit, and tomorrow, purely out of revenge, I plan on selling short 100,000 shares of the company.
UPDATE: Had I sold that 100,000 shares, I would have made $77,000. Ah well...
Not so much my trading (although I'm down a little today while the RO rips it...) but my neighbor clear-cutting the half acre behind my house.
The local government is corrupt, I'm sure of it... they have all sorts of "review boards" and shit that are not supposed to let this stuff happen. After all, if people want to live in suburbia with an above ground pool 20 feet from their house, they can do that... just about everywhere. It's these last spots that have a somewhat rural nature that should really be preserved.
I feel very dark today after I had a great start to the day at the beach.
The sound of chainsaws 30 feet from my office is getting a little old, so I'm getting out of here. I'll have an RO post up later this evening...
I will be putting all my spare energy going forward into selling my house. It's been a long time coming.
Monday, July 14, 2008
I gave up a lot when I tossed the VO onto the Internet trash heap. Lots of traffic, apparently lots of commenters... but you know what I gained?
Anyway, whenever I have access to the data and the time, I'll do an RO report. This could happen nightly. Thing is, I started the VO because I didn't have an office to compare myself to... and now I do. So here you have it, the first RO report. Each report will be tagged under "proprietary trading." All numbers are gross.
Out of 29 traders today, 15 were positive, or 52%. The top 3 traders made the following:
The bottom 3 looked like this...
I was 14 of 29 today, or, in other words, barely positive.
It's possible that in time I will be able to at least associate nicknames with these traders so that it's easier to follow along... we will see.
First of all, kudos to "the Fly" for not only minting coin in this market, but for "getting it" as well.
I'd love to buy that guy a beer. However, I'd be fearful the whole while for my eyebrows... not to mention, my mustache. Actually, my entire beard would be terrified.
So wow... everything is going straight to hell, including my neighbor, who was out with powertools at 9pm last night. You go to hell, Mr. Neighbor.
Where's the nice place to move in the Canadian Maritime Provinces? Anyone? I'm serious.
Okay, I digress.
Today, for all the freakiness of the market, and for all the bank runs, and fear, I had a relaxed and uneventful day. Profitable. Boring. Stable. What I'm after.
I didn't trade well. My best stock of the day, BIDU, was difficult, and I left a number of points on the table. However, since it was the first time I've ever traded this monster, I was happy to get in and out with profits.
My first trade was a little premature, and I lost a quick point. However, minutes later, the stock based again, and I sold at $305.02 and then added to the short at $303.50. So I was short 200 shares which I thought was nicely aggressive on my part.
The stock dropped nicely through the HCPG target of $303, but then bounced hard at $302, all the way back up to $307. I covered my shares at an average price of $303, so I managed to make a little over a point on the 200 shares.
After the stock bounced, it crept lower again. I debated getting involved at $302, but decided against it, because I thought $300 could be supportive and the market was actually bouncing at 10:20 or so, when $302 traded. In retrospect... but anyway... I made some money there.
I also had a decent trade in the morning in CSIQ, but I was ultra cautious on the trade since the stock was up so much early...
Finally, I took choppy losses in ENER and V. Also, I took a stab at a long in FCL through $80, which ultimately worked, but not before stopping me out for a small loss.
So, altogether, it was a green day for me. However, I left a lot of money on the table.
I will report on the RO, in a separate post.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
That's why the blogging tailed off there. We also had a very busy week here.
However, I did lose money on Friday, for the first time in over 2 weeks. Just a little... Anyway, because of that, I feel compelled to post some bad music.
So here you have it.
Now I know a lot of you are like, "But I like that song... the Counting Crows rock!" and that's exactly my point. See, that's what happened when I posted my last two bad music videos, by U2 and INXS.
Bad music is distributed and burned into our heads by excessive airplay. It's actually not good... you've just become inured to it.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Well, the votes have been tallied and the world agrees, Dennis Kneale is a bigger dick than Larry "pink tie" Kudlow.
I think they're both dicks, so I was surprised at the landslide "victory" that Kneale enjoyed.
Here's how it went down... 83 of you voted. 53 or 63% thought Dennis Kneale was a bigger dick, and 30 or 36% of you thought that Kudlow was the bigger dick.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
A bullish chart, no?
Compare it to last month's chart and it looks like progress has been made.
I'm happy with a number of developments from June. While I missed my monthly profit target of $300 a day, or $6000 for the month, by a wide margin, I made significant progress in other areas.
First of all, I was positive for 14 of the 21 trading days, or 2 out of every 3 days. That's getting close to my 75% win rate target. Also, considering that I only had 2 days where I lost over $100 bucks, those 7 loss days weren't that bad overall. In fact, 3 of those loss days were for under $25.
I limited my losses nicely and I'm happy about that.
I also had a setback midmonth and I successfully put it behind me, as I finished the month at my highs.
Finally, I passed the goddamn Series 55 and started trading Nasdaq stocks... in short, I made a little money, but made a lot of progress.
Going forward, I feel good setting the same profit goal of $300 a day for July with the 75% win rate. I'm lowering my max loss day to $400 from $500 and actually, hope I don't even get close to it.
Here's the full stats. Next month, I'll include "shares traded" in the stats... I'm pretty sure my average shares traded per day went down again from May to June.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Today was kind of lame... one dude in my office made bank, but a few others are currently getting clipped... hard.
Anyway, for me, it was a day full of small losses, with one redeeming winner to keep me green. The winner was a short on X. However, this trade doesn't fit into my recent HCPG type style. As I've improved my win-rate and P&L of late, I've also opened myself up to taking more risk again, which is essential on some level. So when I saw X running all morning and then print huge volume on a spike, I took a shot on a short.
It wasn't without any type of merit as far as "daily spots" goes... here, I was taking a bet that $169 would hold as resistance, at least for the short term, and it worked.
When it was turned back at $169, I short 100 shares at $168.23, but my buy stop up at the fig, and went downstairs to make myself a cup of green tea.
Lo and behold, the trade worked.
I also made a few trades in VRTX, from the HCPG list.
So I ended up slightly positive. Which I'll take, because I thought today was rather muddy. Plus, that means I get to continue with the string of good music that I, of course, drop with the sun.
Tomorrow I will not be trading. Good luck. If you happen to be at the Fleet Foxes concert tonight, I'll be wearing a t-shirt that says "No One Knows I'm A Lesbian."
I saw my mother last night. Her father was a printer for the New York Times back in the 40s thru the 70s. I was born in 1974, and for my birth, I received a miniaturized cover of the NYT from that day. Since she's cleaning out her attic, she gave me the copy.
Anyway, I thought it was interesting. Here's the big headline. How depressing.
ARAB DECISION TO END EMBARGO
ON OIL SALES TO U.S. IS REPORTED;
LEVEL OF OUTPUT UNDER STUDY
Quick Results On Gasoline Are Expected
Can't we move on already? What a tragedy that we're still discussing the same shit, 34 years later. We owe it to our children (and grandchildren) to not make this an issue for the next generation.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
NOV is my best, followed by shorts in RIG, V and a nice long in ACI. Biggest loser is for $25. This will have to stand as my daily post, as I have to leave now to go take my continuing education exam.
Later tonight I'll report back with my RO numbers.
And, as always, good music drops with the sun.
UPDATE: The RO had a ridiculous day, with top dog checking in at $42 grand. There was also a trader in the high 30s, a dude in the teens, and 6 other guys up over 3 grand each. Only 2 guys were negative, with the "dirt eater" in at -$3250. I was #16 of 23 traders today... insane.
I'll really be in and out the next couple of days, but I have a lot of fun shit set to autopost in my absence.
I won't be here to police comments, but since the "comment box" has been quieter than a hooker bound and gagged in a closet, I think it's okay to step out for a bit.
Posted by Dinosaur Trader at 2:18 PM
Monday, July 7, 2008
This has been the theme of my last few weeks. I come in, make a few hundred in the first few minutes and then, I churn a little away...
It happened again today, as my first trade of the day, in SLB, was also my best.
In the first minute of the trading day, SLB dropped from $101 to $100. Since it was a perfect "touch" at $100, I felt pretty good to enter after he bounced up to $100.25 and then dropped straight back down. So I got 400 shares off at $100. I covered at $99.65, $99.50, $99.43 and $99.29. I'm not throwing a graph up, since this all happened in the first 3 minutes of the day... the graph doesn't show much.
Anyway, after that, I made many messy little trades. But the good news is, I limited my losses on them all. My largest loser of the day was APA, for $65. I jumped the gun on this short soon after I covered my SLB and paid a small price. I paid a larger price when I missed the actual drop through $130 about 2 hours later... I need to work on continuing to pay attention to stocks after I feel I "missed" the trade, because often, I've just been early.
I also caught a nice short on ME through $32 that helped eat up almost all of my losers.
All in all, another green day. I still have static going on, but it's definitely lessening, and I feel it when I make the bad trades. I think this will continue to improve.
Anyway, it'll be a hard week for me to blog very actively. Tomorrow, I have to take my Series 7 "continuing education" requirement, and then I have some family matters to attend to the next couple of days after the close. Also, on Wednesday night, I'll be seeing the Fleet Foxes.
But man, I don't mind slowing down in all this heat and humidity... and who wants to be staring at a computer screen anyway? Can't you just feel the heat emanating from it, frying your face?
Good music drops with the sun.
UPDATE: Oh, and for those interested in the RO, it was a pretty good day... however, also a very stressful one. Most of the traders took heavy losses early and then came back in the afternoon for some relatively modest gains. I was #14 of 23 today.
How nice that they've named a hurricane after a good song.
Anyway, I pay attention to hurricanes for a few reasons.
First of all, I'm a homeowner, and uncomfortably close to some water.
Second, I'm a trader, and when the next Cat 5 ruins the Gulf Of Mexico, I want to be all over it, mostly so I can laugh at Cajun.
Finally, I'm a surfer, and so I track Atlantic storms to see if they'll produce groundswell.
Anyway, for all these reasons, I'm including a seasonal link to The Storm Track.
Hopefully, they all stay way out in the Atlantic... close enough to produce some surf, but far enough away so that they don't ruin my house.
Bertha is out there brewing as we speak. While it won't threaten the oil rigs (or Cajun's trailer), it should produce some waves!
Sunday, July 6, 2008
I'm in the middle of editing my blogroll... I'm considering changing it to sort by time... I'm also gonna delete all the dormant blogs in an effort to clean things up. If any of you who have dormant blogs start blogging again, just email me.
Anyway, it'll be sloppy until I work out the kinks.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Dude made $82 grand in my office today... on a half day... same guy who made $30 grand yesterday.
Sadly, I made a fraction of that. Still, I made money.
My first trade of the day was also my best and most profitable.
I also caught shorts in PCU through $100 and V through $78. However, it should be noted, that V was trading like a dick. I had one small loss in RIG. Sadly, I just missed a big trade in the fucker, but he stopped me out right before a good drop.
The reason I'm so optimistic about my trading recently is because, well, first of all, I haven't been losing money. Second, I still see loads of room for improvement. Third, I'm still trading small size. I just need to tighten up a bit more, add some shares now that I'm making good consistent decisions and things should be okay.
Of course, the market could change at any moment...
Anyway, I'm keeping this post short. My glass of Pernod calls.
Enjoy the long weekend.
Good music drops with the sun.
I think I'm finally putting fear to rest.
After only 4 losing days last month and a good start to this month, I'm seeing real signs of confidence come back into my trading.
Think of Dinosaur Trader as an airplane. I make the same flights whether or not my plane has 2 passengers, or 200 passengers. The way I build profits again, is by adding passengers.
I'm flying there, might as well fill the plane, right?
And now, for Fugazi's take on Greed.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
My goodness... the moves in the coal, steel and ag names were epic. I didn't trade those moves...
Instead, I caught a nice move in SWN early, and pretty much scratched after that.
For whatever reason, I can't save esiggy charts to blogger right now, so I'll just describe the situation.
I was watching SWN to crest $50. This has been on the HCPG watchlist for the last couple of weeks. The stock opened at $49.75 and then based around that level for a few minutes. At 9:34, the stock traded $50, I entered at $50.10 and the thing just went vertical. I exited a couple hundred shares at $50.43 and then a few hundred more just over $51.
It was 9:36 and I was up nicely.
I got a little greedy though, and decided to try to play the short side of oils when they started to roll. I was early to the trade though, and barely missed huge moves.
So I gave a little back from my early morning highs, no big deal, and chalked up another win.
Again, the RO had a gigantic day.
Two guys in the RO were up over $25 grand, and a number of other players traded into the mid-thousands.
However, I want to share a little tidbit from some of the chat today. I know a lot of people are thinking, "Geez, idiot... these guys in your office are making such huge money, why don't you just do what they do?" It's because I can't deal with the huge drawdowns that are necessary to trade like they do...
Here they are talking about their P&L swings today...
Trader A: my pnl went from -20 to +15 to -4 to +26 here. what was the biggest drawdown for u?
Trader B: was up 8 then went flat.
They're talking thousands of dollars...
If I think of this job as a career, it's all about the slow build back right now... while it's tempting to doubt myself after days like yesterday and today, I'm thinking 5 years out, when I'm not burnt out and stacking coin every day, just like the good ole days.
I'm not saying those guys will be burnt out... I'm just saying I can't take those swings anymore. So I'm gonna keep trying to make a few hundred a day, and slowly build it up to a few thousand a day...
If I can do that, in 5 years, I won't give a damn about missing the coal shorts today.
Good music will drop with the sun.
Normally, if you're standing on the shore and you can't see the waves breaking, you don't paddle out.
However, last night we were at the beach, so I had a pretty good idea what I was paddling into this morning. That said, I was pretty unprepared for the thickness of the fog once I got out to what I presumed to be "the lineup."
I was out with 2 friends and after I caught one wave, lost them. Now and then through the white I'd briefly see a silhouette of a surfer, but the conditions were a little wild, and it was hard to stay close together. I could hear dogs barking on the shore through the sound of the distant shorebreak and the terns above me, but I could see nothing other than the white walls of fog that were about 25 feet away from me on all sides.
It was lonely and quiet in that white room. You can really get some thoughts going in your head when you're out there like that.
The night before, a very good surfer paddled in and was talking about "huge whirls" that were coming to the surface. With a large swell, sometimes fat sea bass come and feed close to the shore, chasing the little bait fish into the rock shallows. So people laughed him off, talking about the "Great White Sea Bass" and stuff, but it definitely felt "sharky" out there this morning, in the fog. So when a fairly large fish jumped clear out of the water about 10 feet from where I sat on my board, I could only wonder was was swimming beneath him, chasing him to the surface like that.
I took a wave, a long right, and as the wave petered out, found myself among boulders. Where the hell was I? As it turned out, I was two beaches over from where I originally paddled out. I managed to get out of the water, unharmed, and began stepping among the huge boulders on shore to get back to the break. I walked by a parking area where a few surfers where standing staring out into the fog.
"Anything out there?" one asked.
"Yeah, if you can find it." I said.
I paddled back out and remarkably, found one of my friends. "We're over at Boulders, man!" I yelled over.
"No fuck! Let's paddle back over to where the car is."
And so we paddled, silently, through the fog while the waves passed under us on their way towards shore. We found our other friend. He was out of breath and disoriented.
"Where the hell are we?" he shouted.
We told him, and now three of us paddled west, through the white, through the quiet. After some time, we got to a place where the waves seemed to be breaking in a coherent way, and we stopped, exhausted, assuming we were back at our original break.
I took a wave, and as I neared the shore, I saw a couple of lifeguard chairs and a few houses dotting the dunes. Once again, I hadn't the slightest idea where we were. I paddled in to shore and stood on the beach staring out into the solid white mist looking for signs of my friends.
After a couple of minutes, a dog heaved past me, all wild-eyes and hanging tongue, chasing after a ball. That was reassuring and brought me back to land. Moments later, my friends washed in, rather loosely, on their boards.
As it turns out, we had overshot the original break by a half mile. All told, we'd only been in the water for an hour but probably traveled over a mile back and forth, from one break to another, parallel to the shore. We couldn't see how strong the drift was through the fog...
When you're confused about your surroundings, time really slows down... it felt like we were out there for hours, lost and paddling. It taught me an important lesson... you have to keep your cool... I mean, we were never more than a couple hundred meters from shore, but it felt like we were in the middle of the ocean since we couldn't see anything. I let that perception trump the reality of the situation, and the rollercoaster my mind went on, ended up exhausting my body.
Anyway, we were able to laugh about it over egg sandwiches and coffee 20 minutes later, but I don't think I'll be paddling into fog again anytime soon.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Sometimes it doesn't pay to anticipate anything when you're trading.
I mean, here we are July 4th week and the market chooses to freak out a bit. It's like last summer... I remember being caught entirely off guard by the late-July and early-August lunacy.
The market volatility is not on that level yet, but neither does it appear the market wants to go quietly into the summer night.
Looking at my RO today hurt a little. Guys made bank, pure and simple. Top dog was up over $15k... 8 traders were up over a grand and 3 of those were up over 3 grand each.
However, I have to remind myself that I changed up my trading style not because I wasn't making money with it (even last year, my shittiest year ever, I cleared 6 digits) but because it was driving me crazy. I need a system where I can be profitable more and have fewer drawdowns. I need to remind myself that most of my profits from last year came on a handful of big days... the rest of the year was painful churn.
When I was single, had no financial obligations and had a sliver of the responsibility I have today, drawdowns didn't effect me as much as they do now... now however, I really hate them. Drawdowns freak me out, and post Hybrid, I just haven't been able to avoid them using my old methods.
These days where the market freaks out are not the norm... so I'm catering my trading style to be able to make money on the "normal" days... not the odd volatile day.
Anyway, I had a good day again, and it was all one trade. Then, I head out to the beach for a midday surf session. BID was trading with good volume and showing relative weakness off the open, and within striking distance of $25, which has been a support level since mid May.
See? I don't want to be rich... I want to be rich AND happy. I don't want to be stressed out all the time, waiting for the market to change and "be good." I want to take my money out of the market each morning, with a consistent, tried and true method, and get on with life.
Okay, that was really a pep talk to myself, to keep myself on "the path" as it were, and to remind myself that I have a plan and I'm in the middle of executing it...
If it would just rain for an entire day, I could post my June recap... but it looks like we'll be spending another evening at the beach, so NO RECAP FOR YOU!
As for the tone of the general market, despite the volume, I can only view today as a big short squeeze. Even I was squeezed, as I covered my LEH short. I short at over $40 in my LT account and covered today around $21... not bad. I think with my extra funds, I'll just buy more HCBK.
Indeed, slow and steady wins the race...
BTW, don't forget to check Tokyo's site for the VO... Meanwhile, I see he's now posting what he considers "good music" on days when he makes money and "bad music" on days he loses... Surely, mimicry is the sincerest form of flattery, but I won't be asking Tokyo to be my roommate anytime soon. If he takes up surfing, I will change my address and buy a big gun.
Good music dropping with the sun.
Man, I love the way they've been all over the oil issue.
As we get closer to the election, I will rely on The Daily Show more and more for things like, truth, and accuracy in reporting.