Monday, August 13, 2007

Jack Kerouac, "On The Road (passage)"

Music is lagging in the poll. Let's try some spoken word stuff.

NOTE: This isn't a "passage" out of On The Road. Instead, it seems like a bit he wrote about why he wrote On The Road.

Felt Slower Than It Was

First of all, the day started out on a high note when I read that Karl Rove was resigning. I've dispatched an email to him to see if he'll guest blog while I'm on vacation, but so far I haven't heard from him. Surely, he is an avid reader of "Dinosaur Trader," so I'm hopeful.

Anyway, my take on today is that I was lulled to sleep early because of the "low volume" and thus, I fell into the trap of telling myself a "story" and took myself out of the game mentally. It pays to be mentally aggressive when trading... today I was not.

I started off getting smoked in my over-weekend short in TFX.

As you can see, it traded straight up 5 points. I was short 400 shares. Of course, I covered before $80, but still, it was unpleasant. Luckily, I stayed with this one and got short again in the $79s after it topped out. I ended up making all of my money back and then some, closing up $339 on the stock.

Another early trade was a long in CNS. I noticed on his daily graph that he was breaking above a downtrend line that I drew.

So, I bought and caught a nice 80-cent rip from $32.70 to $33.50.

On the downside, I screwed up BEN today... big time.

I started getting short around $124. My final cover of the day was up at $126.67... just before it collapsed. Frustrating. Luckily, I was trading it with only 200 shares at a time and thus limited huge damage. Still, losing almost $500 on a stock when you're trading with such small size means you messed up.

Besides that, I traded quietly today. I say that it felt slower than it was because there was a lot moving. I got stuck telling myself a "story" again, based on how I "felt" rather than looking at stocks "as they were." What I mean, simply, is that there were a lot of opportunities that I missed today because I lost my aggressive edge. I got lulled to sleep.

But take a look at any financial, at LZ, FLR or DSL and you'll see that many stocks had multiple-point ranges today. If you were awake, there were lots of trades to be made. If today meets the new definition of a "slow day" I'm happy to be trading.

Anyway, it's good to start the week with a gain especially since the day dawned on a down note. Happily, I have no overnight exposure and I can wake up tomorrow going into the market flat.

One word about tonight... I'm camping out on the beach to catch the tail end of the Perseid meteor shower. Camping with a toddler... this may end up working itself into a post.

Here's the stats:

Best, CNS,
Worst, BEN, -$490

shares traded, 14,000
11 stocks traded, 7 winners, 4 losers
86 trades

Virtual Office, $819. Dow, -3.01, 13,236.53.

HPT, $700 on 28 contracts traded.
Me, $637 on 14,000 shares traded.
Bubs, $148 on 200 shares traded.
OBAT, $136 on 10,404 shares traded.
Misstrade, -$155 on 1200 shares traded.

Evolution, -$647 on 24,000 shares traded.

I may be completely wrong, but I think volume was the lightest it's been in a couple of weeks. There was still a lot moving, but with all the clamor of the last few sessions, it "felt slow."

I was lulled to sleep as well, however check out a few charts and you'll see there was plenty to trade.

Anyway, we've traded up for like, the last 7 Mondays or something silly like that. With low volume, I wouldn't exactly call today a huge success for those bullish on the market. The market simply inhaled and exhaled today... it took a breath.

I expect this week will "give more." Stay tuned.

NOTE: Thanks to all who have already voted in the new poll.

Vetiver, "Angel's Share"

Okay, so music isn't getting the most votes over there on the "poll" to the right but that's cool. Like I said, this site is about getting you to listen to good music and to get everyone you know to stop spraying pesticides despite the fact that it looks like "just another stock blog." I'm a Jedi.

Slowly your old, decaying thought patterns are changing and you will conform to my ways.

Anyway, mellow summer day. Mellow song. Enjoy it.

Freaky Hybrid Trade Of The Day! LNN!

I mean, yeah, the open is always more volatile, but this shit ain't right!

The stock opened at $44.86 on a 1500 share print. Next trade? 100 shares, over a point higher up at $45.95. So, yes, you're reading that correctly. A big buyer moved in with 100 shares and moved the stock over a point.


In the next 10 minutes, the stock traded a little over 6000 shares and dropped 3 points. Most of these trades were for 100 shares each. In other words, the stock freefalled on no trade volume.

Further, after the stock bottomed out at $42.85, it took only 1000 shares to jolt it back up to $44.48. In fact, that analysis is generous. It took 900 shares to move the stock from $42.85 to $43.55 (absurd in itself) and then 100 shares to move the stock from $43.55 to $44.48 (completely freaky).

So another full point on a 100 share trade.

Gaps in liquidity anyone?

Please, visit Ray's blog and let your voice be heard. If you're an old NYSE trader his site may be the only good outlet for you to voice criticism about the Hybrid and have any hope it's being heard.


Not that we could sustain the volatility forever, but today's stock action is markedly slower.

Volume has dropped significantly from Friday's levels. Today's "bounce" has all the markings of an "oversold rally," "short covering," or a "dead-cat bounce." Take your pick.

My guess is that unless the bears come out in force in the afternoon session that we'll just slowly grind into the close. But of course, anything is possible. We could have another 3:30 buy program rally that drives the market back to 13,500. Expect the unexpected.

As for me, I got a little smoked in the TFX short that I held over the weekend. I think I've covered most of the loss elsewhere, but I'm having a pretty dull day overall. I'm taking it easy here during the "lunch hours" and I'll keep an eye on things in the afternoon.

Overall however, I'm more than happy to have a chill day of trading to just catch my breath.

New Poll

My new poll is a practical one.

Readership here has been rising steadily since I began the blog in March. The Virtual Office and my Daily Trading Statistics have been the staple posts of the site. However, I try to sprinkle some other chunks of my life here from time to time.... toddler stuff, surfing, anti-pesticide information, birds...

If all goes according to plan (i.e. volatility dries up allowing me to take a vacation soon) I wanted to take some time to "improve" this site. I'm going to clean up the labels, come up with some new post ideas, etc.

So, since I should have some free time soon to improve your experience here, I'm wondering what it is you like about the site and what you'd like to see more of.

NOTE: You can vote for as many items as you choose.

I couldn't fit an option for "other" on the poll. If there is something I'm missing from the poll choices, please let me know via the "comment" section on this post.

I'm Cursed

I will be a daytrader forever. Whenever I hold positions overnight, I get smacked.

Recall that last week I held AMG and LAZ long overnight after GS "cleared the air" late in the day Wednesday, only to come out Thursday morning and fuck it up again thereby smoking my longs.

This morning GS fucks me again, as I stayed short TFX over the weekend. Clearly, they knew this and decide to hold a conference call pre-open this morning to "calm the markets." Now the futures are gapping up 20 points... sigh.