Just couldn't resist posting this.
intrade.com is now showing a 94% chance that Obama will be elected; McCain has a 6% chance.
BDC hijacking out.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
*sloppy, rushed and unedited post warning
I've been cautiously optimistic about this whole Obama thing since January 2nd, when I first declared him the victor of the Democratic Primary by way of Hillary Clinton blowing up.
Since that time I've gotten hundreds of comments here on the blog asking why I support Obama if he's going to raise taxes? I mean, I'm a trader, I make money, why do I want to give my money to the government?
I understand that thinking, but it's very limited and short-sighted. If all I cared about was money, and if all anyone cared about was money, wouldn't this country really really suck?
Aren't we a billion times better than that?
I've always been an idealist. It's painful. You expect the best and often you see the worst. I was downtown on 9/11 and saw the second plane fly 100 feet over my head and go directly into the WTC. I ran like a motherfucker, scared for my life (and for Judy's who also was downtown) thinking a third plane would be arriving soon. But I remember very well, in the midst of the panic, worrying to myself about the way the country would react. I feared we'd move in a very negative direction when we had a great opportunity to make huge positive changes. A once in a generation type opportunity.
In the weeks after 9/11, it was hard not to support Bush. But things quickly went south. He told people to shop else the terrorists would win, he alienated moderates everywhere, and he more or less turned the world into an awful black and white painting... you were with us, or against us.
Unfortunately, the world isn't as simple as he is.
He took an event that could have reaped us positive worldwide change and instead used it to turn Americans against each other. Patriot versus non-patriot, red versus blue, Joe the Plumber versus the elitists. For that, he will be remembered as the worst President we have ever had.
John McCain isn't President Bush, true, but in the last few years, he's done all he could to cater to the Bush supporters. I liked McCain in 2000. Had he won the Republican primary, I may have voted for him in the general election. However, his move towards the religious wing of the Republican party is scary. The Republicans should get back to fiscal conservatism and forget about the evangelical fringe... that's when they're at their best.
And God knows, we need some fiscal conservatism right now...
Anyway, this post is already way too long. Suffice it to say, I'm not only voting for Obama for the leader I think he will be, but also because I think our country is far worse off now than it was 8 years ago when the Republicans took over. Trust me, if the Democrats fuck this up, you'll hear it from me, I'm an Independent through and through. You've been reading this blog through the ass-end of a Republican administration that I hated.
I feel the 300 point rally today means the market thinks the election will be over by tomorrow morning. If the market was worried about a 2000 or 2004 type "nailbiter" situation, it wouldn't have had the conviction to rally so strongly.
In short, the market just predicted a convincing Obama win tonight. Hopefully it will be the first of many "Obama rallies."
Let's get to the numbers.... out of 23 traders today, 16 were gross positive, or 70%. The top 9 traders were up over $1,000 gross while the bottom 5 were down over $1,000 gross. I was #6 of 23, or happy with a solid low volume performance. Still, the Manservants took it to the Bosses today, due to a "Trader D" swan dive.
Here are today's Manservants:
"Chambermaid" - Trader D, -$15,383 on 153k shares traded.
2. Trader F, -$3,765 on 32,200 shares traded.
3. Trader A, -$2,262 on 42,904 shares traded.
4. Trader C, -$1,813 on 71,000 shares traded.
5. Trader P, -$1,215 on 118k shares traded.
And the Bosses:
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader N, $3,036 on 63,400 shares traded.
2. Trader 6*, $2,993 on 100 shares traded.
3. Trader J, $2,407 on 33,000 shares traded.
4. Trader Z, $1,882 on 45,400 shares traded.
5. Trader M*, $1,571 on 0 shares traded.
*denotes swing account.
UPDATE: Never have I felt so good about casting a vote.
I had my daughter in my arms when I went into the booth. She pulled down the proper switches.
I pulled the lever over and the curtains opened. We turned around and my daughter, unbelievably enough, shouted "YES WE CAN!" and the whole room erupted into laughter and applause. It was nuts.
Okay, that didn't happen. But still, it felt great.
Looking forward to the results later this evening.
I know it's early, but see, I ran a very scientific poll for the last couple of months. Due to the accurate nature of my polling, I can say without a doubt that Barack Obama will emerge victorious this evening in the race for the White House. Still, don't get complacent... go vote for him.
Anyway, here's how you voted:
Out of 632 total votes casted,
Obama 332 or 52%
McCain 238 or 37%
Nader 62 or 9%
Now, I tend to doubt that 9% of the electorate will vote for Nader, I just have a very independent-minded readership. So I'm going to chop that number a few percentage points. However, I also think that a fair number of my readers are Republicans, so I think the McCain number is probably fairly accurate.
Here is my final vote tally prediction. This is just the popular vote percentages.
Nader/Third-party candidates 5%
Whoever you choose to vote for today, go vote. I know there is a lot of cynicism about the system, but the fact remains that just sitting and watching TV will change absolutely nothing. More participation will make our democracy stronger.
And speaking of which... find your polling station here.