You know, I asked him to do a presentation and he just couldn't get it done. Notice he's now in the cemetery (check the right toolbar), with the rest of the VO has-beens.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Let's just forget about the whole first part of the day. I traded very lightly and was up about $200.
Then, the FED cut rates and the market freaked out.
I generally trade FED days very lightly. While I like to trade when the market is volatile, the FED days typically have this "the market is going to the moon/the market is going straight to hell" type of feel to them that I just can't trade.
Mostly because the market takes the round trip from the moon and back to hell in under 5 minutes.
The fills are often horrible.
So, even after the cut, I traded with small size. I'll detail my trades in one stock, SKF. Readers of "the Fly's" blog know that yesterday I bought some in my LT account at $100.04. I figured, if I lost in the trade I could harass "the Fly" about it forever, and if I made money in the trade, it was its own reward. A win-win situation if you will...
Anyway, these were daytrades though. Completely separate from my LT account. I'll hold that position until the end of the bear market... or 2010.
2:20 Buy 100 @ $97.24
2:26 Sell 100 @ $96.01 (the low of the move on a sell-stop @ $96.50... some fill!)
2:37 Short 200 @ $99.76
2:39 Buy 200 @ $98.77
3:08 Buy 200 @ $95.25
3:09 Sell 100 @ $95.47
3:13 Sell 100 @ $96.83
So as you can see, I left dollars and dollars on the table on both sides of most of these trades. Still, I managed to make $250 in the stock. But man, if only I wasn't so damned skittish.
The reason why I didn't catch the move from 3:20 on was simply because I was waiting for a pullback to enter. This is also why I missed a lot of short opportunities in other stocks. I looked at the SPY and thought we'd maybe form a Head and Shoulders formation before heading lower. Instead, the market traded lower violently and quickly, chopping off the dudes arm.
And like they say in Afghanistan, no arm, no shoulder. Okay, that was in poor taste... let's move on.
So I missed the move. It's too bad, but I didn't want to chase. I knew that it was very possible that the market could moonshot again and I wasn't looking to get squeezed.
After this move, I think it's safe to start trading again with some size. The volatility appears to be back. Since Thursday of last week I've been taking it easy. Hopefully now the volume will come back to the market and trading will be good.
I'm going to get a lot of sleep tonight (after watching the Republican debate) and be at the desk early.
Here's the stats:
Best, SKF, $251
Worst, CBI, -$97
15,600 shares traded.
16 stocks traded. 10 winners, 6 losers.
NOTE: Expect an "around the house" post about me and a valet parking dictator named "Romeo" to drop today or tomorrow.
Sanglucci, $1425 on 47,200 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $1035 on 2100 shares traded.
Evolution, $679 on 55,400 shares traded.
OBAT, $550 on 4800 shares traded.
Me, $421 on 15,600 shares traded.
Denarii, $52 on 1000 shares traded.
Wincity, $38 on 200 shares traded.
Well it was a wild one.
Ben "the beard" Bernanke did not disappoint the markets, cutting 50bp in the FED funds rate and another 50 at the discount window. And the market completely ripped on the good news.
Until it sold off like a motherfucker.
Volume was dead all day but took off after 2:15. The close today was amazing... financial stocks got completely crushed.
The VO did well. Not one red trader today... always a nice way to end the day.
I, for one, am very happy the FED is now behind us. Time to start trading again!
Ex-Senator, John Edwards
I'm guessing this helps BO, as Edwards was an anti-establishment type of candidate.
UPDATE: Just gave his "drop out" speech. Surprisingly, he conceded that he "fucking hates poor people."
This morning, Joe Kernan and a guest questioned Art on a few topics. Below you'll find the questions and his responses paraphrased.
On the FED action today:
The rate of destruction in the GDP was stunning and it bakes a half point into the cake.
On the bond market:
They're overdoing it and they may be setting up for a turn, they're overbought.
Do we test the lows?
I think we have to retest the lows. It takes a few weeks for that to happen, not a day or two. It's a pass/fail type of test.
Are we in a cyclical bear?
Well, Goldilocks is getting a manicure and a complete makeover, but I'm afraid she'll be left standing on the porch when the limo pulls away.
Has the elimination of the plus tick rule increased volatility?
Yes. In the past, shorts were able to weigh on a stock in the same manner that piling rocks on a guys chest will eventually cause him to stop breathing. Now, they sell 'em right down and then they spike right back up, so the elimination of that rule does add to increased volatility.
- McCain Defeats Romney In Florida
- Hey Look! Our Mortgage Brokers Ruined Europe's Banks Too. UBS Writes Down $14B.
- FED Looking To Make People Spend More, Create Bubbles.
- Thank You NYT For Your Biased Article... Sigh.
- Not A Myth: Hot Tap Water Is Bad For You.
- I Found This Yesterday Over At Wall Street Fighter. 40 Great Business Quotes.
- Go Feed The Bull! It's Like Digg For The Stock Market, Only My Stories Actually Have A Chance To Get Published.
Finally, a video. Hillary is going to have to cheat if she wants the nomination and she has no problem with that. The Democratic candidates were not suppossed to actively campaign in Florida due to DNC rules that she ignored. Just another reason for me not to support her.