Friday, May 9, 2008
After last week, where I gained 5 successive green days, this week, I've been smacked 5 times, digging myself a deep and cold hole to start the month off.
Special note to mother market: You win. I've been permanently humbled. Should you ever see fit to let me be a profitable trader again, I promise always to show you the proper respect.
I'm down a little today, instead of taking the day off, as planned, I decided to come in and trade small.
Here are the two trades that "broke my heart" today.
First off, in OII. I liked the base under $70, a key level, the high volume, and the relative strength versus the market. I entered 400 shares at an average price of $69.85. The stock shot up, with convincing volume through $70 and hit a high of $70.47 before reversing back to the $70 level. I did not lighten my shares during the move up, because frankly, I was expecting at least a 1% gain on the breakout. I had a limit to get out of 200 shares up at $70.67.
When the stock reversed, I expected $70 to hold, so I added 200 more shares at $70.08. Alas, the stock broke $70 and I was forced to exit my entire position, all above $69.85. So, not a big loss, but depressing, because I really felt good about the trade.
Later in the day, I reentered this stock at $70, got shaken out at $70.44 and watched it run over $72. Truly, I am due to catch one of these moves soon...
And then there was CAM. Here's I missed the original entry, but bought on a pullback to the entry level, at $51.12. I held while the stock moved up to a half, and adjusted my sell stop up to $51.15 where it came back to take me out of the trade, before ripping up to $52.
I can point to many more examples like this today. Seriously, I feel as if I'm jinxed lately, getting stopped out of positions at the lows of their moves (or highs when I'm short.) I'm extremely frustrated right now.
Oh, and fuck "TraderMD"for having so much success using this HCPG stuff while I struggle like some refugee in a third world country. To make matters worse, the dude isn't even a trader... he's gonna be a doctor. He's just doing this shit for fun.
Anyway, I doubt the weekend will do much to clear my head. I'm that pissed. I'm just gonna come in Monday and keep my size small, until I start catching good moves.
Off to kill bugs and mutilate cute furry animals.
Here's the stats:
Best, OII, $130
Worst, JEC, -$190
10,600 shares traded.
11 stocks traded, 3 winners, 8 losers.
Sanglucci, $1920 on 46,000 shares traded.
Tokyo, $394 on 1312 shares traded.
OBAT, $263 on 5800 shares traded.
Denarii, -$16 on 4600 shares traded.
Ainkurn, -$160 on 500 shares traded.
Me, -$178 on 10,600 shares traded.
Hey, you notice that? There's a new trader in the VO, Tokyo Trader. Ultimately, his entrance may "top tick" the VO, as I'm extremely close to canning it in it's current formation and starting it over again, in a different way. I also have another new member all ready to go... we will see.
If you're wondering why those two poor souls didn't get the normal VO welcome, it's because I'm in a horrendous mood. Even my terrific sense of humor is failing me... sigh.
I have many reasons to hate the VO right now, but not enough time to really elaborate. Just know that soon, it may disappear, or radically change. I feel like it's become a sort of "special olympics" of the stock blogging world. Not that there's anything wrong with people who participate in the special olympics.
Anyway... guess what, we set a new record for the lowest volume day of the year. What a fucked up week. My real office suffered some true damage... not "special olympics" damage either... I'm talking significant losses.
Enjoy your weekend. Don't light yourself on fire or anything... that's for me to do.
SPECIAL MESSAGE TO PARANOID PEOPLE: You're right.
Bush was on the television the other day discussing his desire to make the tax cuts permanent. That would be wonderful... I can't stand taxes.
But how do you make up for those lost revenues? Here's an idea, and it would also make gasoline cheaper... Cut the income tax, like Bush wants (and I want) and supplement the lost money with a higher gasoline tax. Simple.
Encourage people to work harder by allowing them to keep more of their income while discouraging them from purchasing gas guzzling vehicles that are not only bad for the environment, but for our overall foreign policy as well.
We don't need to drill in Alaska, like they were discussing on CNBC today. That's just another short-term solution. (I agree with most of what Vince Farrell was saying, BTW.)
We need bigger, longer term initiatives that will end our dependence on oil and gasoline, not increase it. The oil guy was saying we'd get 10 billion barrels (potentially...) from ANWAR... that amounts to an extra 1 million barrels of oil a day. We're currently using 20 million barrels a day, so that'd give us a potential 5% increase in supply.
So what kind of savings can you really expect at the pump? To be generous, 5%? Or, 20 cents on $4 a gallon of gasoline?
Is that really the best we can do? Is it worth continuing to ruin the environment? Absolutely not. We need to show leadership and develop new technologies. Imagine America exercising some positive leadership in the world again? That would be nice, and it would also provide jobs.
A decade ago, we produced 40% of the solar panels made in the world... now we produce 8%. Look, you don't have to be a genius, or even a liberal democrat, to see that oil and gasoline production is not the future... so why are we heading backwards?