Tuesday, September 30, 2008

First Aid Kit, "Tiger Mountain Peasant Song" (Fleet Foxes Cover)

The RO Report, "Surf's Up" Edition

Not really, but nonetheless immediately after the close, I head to catch some waves. Spending all your time in front of screens is not healthy. Sorry for the late post.

Anyway, the market is bipolar. Have you ever hung out with a bipolar person? They suck. One day it's like, "The world is going to end" and you're like, "Cool, this is a person I can chill with." But then the next day, they love everything and they're really annoying. Everything is beautiful, people are great... blah, blah.

However, this bipolar market does suit the RO, which made massive size again today.

I'm shot, so let's just get right to the numbers, shall we? Out of 20 traders today, 17 finished positive, or 85%. I was #11 of 20. 8 traders finished up over $10,000 gross today. Truly amazing.

The top traders in the RO right now are on another level. As "Trader D" pointed out in the comment section yesterday, the swings have been wild. While the top 5 today finished with massive gains, most of them had massive losses at some juncture today also... bipolar indeed. This is a historic trading market. I'm pretty sure this year will be mark the top for many traders and their profits.

Here are today's Bosses:

1. Trader A, $105,473 on 645k shares traded.
2. Trader D, $96,092 on 555k shares traded.
3. Trader B, $93,743 on 982k shares traded.
4. Trader C, $49,939 on 390k shares traded.
5. Trader F, $47,417 on 209k shares traded.


And the Manservants:

1. Trader K, -$11,882 on 179k shares traded.
2. Trader T, -$1,301 on 5,400 shares traded.
3. Trader 3, -$46 on 6,800 shares traded.
4. Trader Q, $406 on 4,600 shares traded.
5. Trader R, $647 on 111k shares traded.

Judy's Trip To The Bank

After the almost reckless profits I've made in the last couple of weeks, it was time to get paid and deposit the money in the bank.

In normal times, I'd just take the full amount and throw it into my savings, or put a portion of it in a CD. I have enough market risk each day, so my daytrading profits go largely to cash, not back into the market.

Anyway, I told Judy to take about 10% of the money out, in cash. A decent sum. In addition, I told her to get a safe-deposit box, and put the lions-share of that money into the box.

She told me that as she instructed the teller of her plans that there was lots of murmuring behind the counter and that people were looking at her like she was "crazy."

Naturally, I wish I could have been there to get more detail.

Anyway, next week I'll discuss buying bars of gold. After that, I'll move the discussion over to purchasing firearms.

In other words, I think this bounce will fade eventually... maybe even by the end of the day.

Hot Habanero Cheddar Cheese Versus Brazen, Misbehaving Cat

Hot Habanero Cheddar Wins Again!



Yes the market is up 241 as I type, however volume is lame. The only thing that matters today is the close.

Some Real Perspective

It has been a rough week, and we're only at Tuesday.

How about some perspective. Not the life and death kind this time...

Anyway, I have lots of work to do. I'll be back later. I have many posts cooking, but given the conditions, it's been hard to finish them off.

Monday, September 29, 2008

How Do You Research Stocks?

When every single graph is completely busted?

Also, for you non-traders, this is what panic on Wall Street looks like. The Dow dropped 400 points in 5 minutes after the bailout failed.

Ministry, "Thieves"



No other song fits the feeling right now better than this... dedicated to the fine "leadership" in this country.

Thieves, thieves and liars, murderers
Hypocrites and bastards [in laughter]

Hey thanks for nothing!
Morals in the dust
Two-faced bastards and syncophants
No trust

Thieves! Liars!
Inside, outside, which side, you dont know
My side, your side, their side, we dont know
Which side are they? which side are they?
Which side of their mouth do you suppose that it came?
Which side are they? which side are they?
Which side of the grass is greener?
Inside, outside, which side, you dont know
My side, your side, their side, we dont know

Youre like a great big fucking gun,
Just waiting to get squeezed!

Breathe, forfeit erection!
Toxical injection
Geriatric fuck-fest
We still believe in lies

Thieves! Liars!
Inside, outside, which side, you dont know
My side, your side, their side, we dont know
Who started it? who started it?
Which side are they? which side are they?
Which side of their mouth do you suppose that it came?
Which side are they? which side are they?
Which side of the grass is greener?
Inside, outside, which side, you dont know
My side, your side, their side, no one knows

Youre like a great big hit of acid,
Waiting to be taken!

The RO Report, "Stock Market Crash" Edition

Well, not exactly. We were down 7% on the day, 777 points. Unlucky sevens.

For the RO, it was a bloodbath early, followed by good profits at the close.

This country has turned into a cartoon. You know, I respect all the "nay" votes today if those votes were speaking for their constituencies. However, I think it's posturing. If those fucking Congressmen really cared for their constituencies, this shit wouldn't have happened in the first place.

Voting for deregulation forever, this is what you get... so don't try to pretend suddenly that you're "saving" anything. There is nothing worse than hypocrisy.

I'm kind of speechless actually, so I'm gonna go get some dinner and clear my head.

Out of 20 traders, 17 finished positive. 16 traders finished up over $1,000 gross. I was #14 of 20.

Here are today's Bosses:

1. Trader Z, $85,146 on 378k shares traded.
2. Trader D, $81,178 on 902k shares traded.
3. Trader A, $55,406 on 732k shares traded.
4. Trader K, $22,995 on 130k shares traded.
5. Trader C, $22,727 on 210k shares traded.


And the Manservants:

1. Trader H, -$21,836 on 14,700 shares traded.
2. Trader 1, -$692 on 16,400 shares traded.
3. Trader T, -$252 on 5,700 shares traded.
4. Trader 3, $386 on 4,600 shares traded.
5. Trader O, $1,650 on 12,600 shares traded.

The Stock Market Crash Of 2008 (Game)

(BUMP) Since I was a few days early, I thought I'd revisit this post. Also, to clarify, we'll need a 10% drop intraday to meet the "crash criteria."

Okay, it's that time of year again...

All you have to do is name the date of this year's stock market crash.

Winner gets vodka with "Comrade Fly" at the Russian Tea Room, paid for (generously) by "Comrade Fly."

I'll start... September 24th.

HIGHLANDER IS VERY CLOSE TO "WINNING."

OMFG! The Market Is Crashing...

"Not a great time to make an ideological point."

Maybe the smartest thing Bob Pisani has ever said.

Art Cashin, September 29, 2008

"Never bet on the end of the world, it only happens once. But it may not be a bad idea to find a bomb shelter."

Short Sellers Ruin Wachovia

Or not... again, if they extend the short-selling ban past October 2nd, they're working with blinders on and just looking for scapegoats.

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Another Problem For The Economy




(h/t Complacent Panda, now a member of the blogroll)

Pailin & Couric On SNL

Sorry about all the Palin posts... but this is great.

I'd almost feel sorry for her at this point, being the laughingstock of the world and all, if it weren't for the utter hubris that got her into this position in the first place. The more I listen to her, the more I'm offended that she feels ready to lead our country. We, and our children, deserve much, much more.

Still, my fear right now is that barring a complete meltdown in her debate with Joe Biden this Thursday night that she'll "win" it, if only because the bar of expectation has been set so low for her. But please, let's be smarter than that.



UPDATE: Back to stocks for a moment, if this tax is passed, it would be very bad. (h/t "Renaissance Man" Jake Gint)

UPDATE II: That "tax" on securities transactions didn't get into the bill. According to the NYT:

Among the last sticking points was an unexpected and bitter fight over how to pay for any losses that taxpayers may experience after distressed debt has been purchased and resold.

Democrats had pushed for a fee on securities transactions, essentially a tax on financial firms, saying it was fitting that they contribute to the cost.

In the end, lawmakers and the administration opted to leave the decision to the next president, who must present a proposal to Congress to pay for any losses.

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Contestant # 8, Sarah Palin

It's a step up from being Client #9, but still...


Sarah Palin 1984 Beauty Pageant - Watch more free videos

Cumulative RO Trader Statistics



Reader Shortbus took the time to make a nice graph of the cumulative performance of the RO through September.

Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story, since I only publish the top 5 and bottom 5 each day, but it makes it very easy to see who the monthly "bosses" are, that's for sure.

Trader D, B, Z, A and F are leading the way and are all up over $200k for the month. Not too shabby, eh?

This may be a "third-tier" blog, but it's full of "first-tier" readers.

NOTE: R.I.P Paul Newman. We should all be so generous.

NOTE II: Oh, and here's your "left-wing media" at work again.

Friday, September 26, 2008

2008 Presidential Debate Open Thread

Barack Obama and John McCain duke it out in, what I'm calling, the "Thrississippi in Mississippi."


-John McCain, pictured here in a bathing "costume," circa 1907.



-Barack Obama. Not a smart guy; not an elitist. Just a regular guy who likes to bowl.

Here's one clip I found from the debate. I'll post more as they become available.

Belle & Sebastian, "The State I Am In"

The RO Report, "Fuck Politicians" Edition

Seriously... if something is so important... so necessary to rush through Congress with no oversight, etc. etc., you'd think the leaders we elect to represent us, could do better than bicker like little schoolchildren.

But they can't, because they suck.

Take them all to the woodshed the next chance you get. We need new blood in Washington.

Anyway, my time tonight is limited, so here's the stats. Out of 18 traders today, 13 were positive, or 72%. 9 traders finished over $1,000 gross. I was #4 of 18. In other words, I'm a boss.

Here are today's Bosses:

1. Trader B, $11,959 on 446k shares traded.
2. Trader P, $4,200 on 47,400 shares traded.
3. Trader F, $1,696 on 40,500 shares traded.
4. Trader S, $1,442 on 46,200 shares traded.
5. Trader J, $1,182 on 47,200 shares traded.


And the Manservants:

1. Trader H, -$4,683 on 3,100 shares traded.
2. Trader D, -$3,583 on 237k shares traded.
3. Trader T, -$1,575 on 4,200 shares traded.
4. Trader V, -$1,030 on 58,400 shares traded.
5. Trader N, -$503 on 57,600 shares traded.


Don't forget to drop by later to discuss the debate on the Open Thread. It'll be up by 8:30.

Have a good weekend.

Thank God They Banned Short Sellers

Otherwise they could take down fine upstanding American banks like Wachovia.

Oh, wait... it's getting slammed?

McCain Will Debate!

YAY! Now all we need is for Sarah Palin to speak with the "icky, non-deferential" media and they'll almost be a real ticket!


-John McCain, circa 256 B.C


-Sarah Palin, 9/26/2008

NOTE: I will have a debate open thread up this evening. The debate starts at 9pm. Please drop by and let everyone know why "your guy" is better than "the idiot."

FUNNY LINK: Chris Rock on Larry King.

Things To Do This Weekend

1. Buy a gun and a Bible.

2. Stock up on food and water.

3. Purchase bars of gold.

4. Stash wads of cash in safe deposit box.

The Daily Show- Clusterfuck To The Poor House

Cynicism Wins Again!

During the Great Depression, my grandfather walked 9 miles to shovel some snow to make money for a day.

That's when you know a bottom is near.

Meanwhile, speaking of depression, as you all know by now, the bailout plan is on the verge of collapse. Or, as our folksy but incredibly stupid president put it, "If money isn't loosened up, this sucker could go down."

Blame whomever you want. However, I do know that responsible parties to a negotiation do not get down on one knee and say something like, "Please don't let the Democrats blow it up."

This is theater. In fact, I thought things were very serious. Reading about the actions of the last few hours however makes me feel like it is all part of some lame political game.

Fuck every politician.

UPDATE: President Bush: "The legislative process is sometimes not very pretty, but we're going to get a package passed." (After we somehow make John McCain look like a hero for it.)

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Wolf Parade, "I'll Believe In Anything"

One of my favorite songs from 2007 and one of my favorite vids ever. It's perverse in all the right ways. My favorite part is from 2:01 to 2:30. Not only does it mark the climax of the song, but you get the "crazy eyes."

The RO Report, "Congress Wins" Edition

Well, it looks like we'll have a full-fledged bailout done by Monday.

No matter how I feel about the matter politically, as a trader I'll be happy when it's complete. That way, the market can get back to trading with some conviction. Volume was slightly ahead of yesterday's levels, but at 1.2 billion, still pretty poor.

The weak volume didn't matter much to the RO. Most traders stacked. I guess we had good price movement and that made up for the volume.

There was a somewhat fishy reversal at around 3:40 today, when the MOCs were published. Despite the bullish tone in today's trade, the MOCs were mostly to the sell side. The market got punched, only to bounce decently in the last few minutes. Who knows where it's going? "The Fly" says he hasn't been this bullish since 2006.

I'm not really feeling that, but then again, I don't have a time machine.

Anyway, out of 21 traders, 16 were positive, or 76%. 10 traders finished up over $1,000 gross. With the slight increase in volume today, and those RO stats, I feel better being a little more aggressive again tomorrow. I was #8 of 21. Still down on the week after my bout of "manservitude" two days ago, but within sight of the green.

I'm just happy I can post some good tunes this evening.

Here are today's Bosses.

1. Trader B, $14,661 on 277k shares traded.
2. Trader A, $10,790 on 219k shares traded.
3. Trader F, $5,462 on 85,ooo shares traded.
4. Trader H, $5,176 on 500 shares traded.
5. Trader Z, $4,471 on 93,600 shares traded.


And the Manservants.

1. Trader C, -$1,584 on 193k shares traded.
2. Trader D, -$349 on 204k shares traded.
3. Trader T, -$319 on 6,200 shares traded.
4. Trader 5, -$282 on 100 shares traded.
5. Trader 3, -$238 on 2,200 shares traded.

Volume Better On Market Rally

Nothing at all like last week, but if we can hold above 11,000 by 3pm, we could get a nice pop going into the close.



I fully expect Gasparino to come out after 3:30 with some sort of bullish news/rumor to cement the day in the green.

McCain Disses Letterman... But Letterman Wins Again



NOTE: Later today I will have a post about how much the Democrats suck... don't worry "my friends" (to borrow a phrase from Grandpa McCain).

Sarah Palin Interviewed By Katie Couric On CBS

Okay, listen... we've had the folksy dude who didn't know anything for 8 years. How'd that turn out for you? If you're one of those who have voted for McCain/Palin over there in my poll, I hope you watch this interview (you can change your vote, btw). I mean, she seems really nice... but she also seems really stupid. No thanks.

If you can't watch the whole thing, at least watch from 3:45 or so, when they discuss the "financial crisis." Sorry folks, but this woman is a loser. If McCain were elected and died, and she became President... PRESIDENT! I would move my entire family to some other country immediately. (h/t reader "Mark L.")



If any of you ever come across anything worth posting here, shoot me an email. I always appreciate tips.

UPDATE: The President of Pakistan thinks she's a hottie. In truth, no one wants a hot VP candidate. Gimme a saggy old smart person... PLEASE!

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Tina Turner, "Simply The Best"

Or the worst... However, I remember in the 80s my father always used to say that Tina Turner had "nice legs." God I hope I make money tomorrow. I really can't stand posting bad music.

The RO Report, "They Ruined The Market" Edition

Man, I saw that Duncan guy on CNBC today saying that he plans on getting that short selling ban extended and it made me very depressed. Being a trader and not being able to short stocks... it makes no sense. It'd be like... imagine the porn industry banned oral sex. It's stupid.

Here's a link to Mr. Niederauer, CEO of the NYSE talking about the ban from the NYSE website.

Anyway, more and more stocks are being added to the "ban list" which means fewer trading opportunities. And that is beginning to show in the volume number. Today, amidst all this market confusion, we barely edged our way over a billion shares on the NYSE.

Folks, short NYX. Oh wait, YOU CAN'T! Fuck these market manipulators! Let us trade again!

It was a very quiet day in the RO. Out of 22 traders, 9 were positive, or 41%. I was #12 of 22, or slightly negative. Only 4 traders finished up over $1,000 gross today.

Here are today's Bosses.

1. Trader B, $4,926 on 200k shares traded.
2. Trader D, $2,422 on 28,700 shares traded.
3. Trader K, $1,340 on 129k shares traded.
4. Trader H, $1,260 on 12,100 shares traded.
5. Trader R, $840 on 33,400 shares traded.


And the Manservants.

1. Trader A, -$7,635 on 161k shares traded.
2. Trader N, -$935 on 12,800 shares traded.
3. Trader J, -$878 on 24,000 shares traded.
4. Trader F, -$760 on 14,800 shares traded.
5. Trader Z, -$598 on 22,200 shares traded.

Is Andy Borowitz "Too Big To Fail?"

Well now that he's been linked by me, he's bigger than ever. Wait, sorry... I meant to say, "biggah than evah."

I love the The New Yorker magazine. Of course, that makes perfect sense since I'm not only a communist, but I'm also an elitist.

Be that as it may, I urge you to check out this funny piece by Mr. Borowitz entitled, "Too Big To Fail." If you're not an elitist, it's okay... it's short and there are lots of pictures.

Here's a snip.

How did I find myself in this hole? Like most financial crises, mine had its origins on a slippery slope. First of all, I made the mistake of logging on to iTunes when I was high and downloading every Electric Light Orchestra song ever recorded. Second, I created my own e-commerce site, the ill-fated DressYourBadger.com.


Admit it, that's funny. Read it, and enjoy communism. It's coming, why fight it?

Duncan Neiderauer On Short Sale Ban

"It's very likely that it will be pushed out a few weeks [past the current Oct. 2nd deadline] until we have a marketwide solution on how we should trade all stocks."

That sounds very bad from a trading perspective. They will extend the short-ban. Sigh.

I'll put up a link to the interview when it becomes available.

Here it is.

Ron Paul On "The Bailout"



And for some perspective, here's how Sweden dealt with a similar crisis in 1992. I don't think RP would be pleased...

Meanwhile, haven't we had enough secrecy from the White House in the last 8 years?

How cynical to think that just because there are now photos of Sarah Palin with a couple of "world leaders" that she has "foreign policy" experience. How condescending.

Debt To America!

The best thing about this crisis is seeing The Daily Show cover Wall Street more. Now if only they'd pick up the phone, and hire me on as a writer so I can get the fuck out of here already.

Breaking! Paulson Bans Warren Buffett's Death

The SEC and Hank Paulson have just issued an emergency order effectively banning the death of Warren Buffett.

As Paulson explained in a brief statement, "Warren Buffett is too important to the stability of the US Financial Markets to be allowed to pass. He will be kept alive at least until the next administration takes office, so that the "liberal media" doesn't have yet another awful event to blame on President Bush."

UPDATE: Here's Buffett on CNBC this morning discussing his purchase.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

The Weather Girls, "It's Raining Men"

The RO Report, "Smoked" "The Buffet Bottom" Edition

What a fucked up day. All day long, I'm buying a stock (ENER) that isn't oversold on its daily, has bad news, and isn't bouncing. Talk about a loss of focus. For that, I wear the label of "manservant." It was my worst day in a very, very long time. Perhaps my worst day of the year.

Anyway, the entire office got smoked. The funny thing is that everyone was trading different stuff today and nothing seemed to work. I mean, even today's "bosses" are lame.

In fact, today was so fucking feeble that I'll have to post an especially bad song this evening. (h/t to "Trader E" for the selection)

However, let's take a lesson from this, shall we? Last week the RO made a ridiculous amount of money. Today reminds us that losses are also part of this game. The market is a humbling place to work. It's important to respect its power. It giveth, and it taketh away.

Accordingly, with a look at today's RO smokefest and a glance at the lowest trading volume in weeks, I will change my trading strategy going forward until volume returns. You can't fight the market, you have to adapt to it.

Indeed, I may have to devote an entire day to the HCPG (the "G" is for gay) method again, as sort of punishment.

Trading like a "crackhead" in a low volume market is a good way to impoverish yourself.

Well, let's get this over with. Out of 21 traders today, only 5 were gross positive, or 24%. That may be a new low for the RO. 10 traders lost over $1,000 gross. I was number 17 of 21 today, or disgustingly red. Indeed, I am the "manservant" known as "Trader S."

Perhaps my old baby, the VO, did better... NAH!

Here are today's "bosses."

1. Trader C, $1,395 on 94,700 shares traded.
2. Trader P, $998 on 29,500 shares traded.
3. Trader K, $791 on 25,800 shares traded.
4. Trader T, $607 on 5,100 shares traded.
5. Trader 3, $50 on 2,200 shares traded.


And the "manservants."

1. Trader B, -$11,564 on 503k shares traded.
2. Trader H, -$9,383 on 14,000 shares traded.
3. Trader A, -$7,169 on 481k shares traded.
4. Trader D, -$5,243 on 90,300 shares traded.
5. Trader S, -$2,686 on 30,600 shares traded.


DT Versus The Market

The market is winning. Big time. I seem destined for "manservant" status right now.

Why Should The Media Want Access To A VP Candidate?

They probably want to ask her questions and shit...

Bravo to the Republicans and the McCain campaign for thwarting the "liberal media" (even those crazy left-wing WSJ reporters) once again.


However, the media is playing hard ball...

More here.

I Want To Surf Like This...

ReInflating My Blogroll

In the last couple of months, due to technical difficulties, my blogroll has been in a state of flux and decline. So in an effort to bailout my blogroll I am asking you, respected reader, to help me reinflate it.

Are there blogs that provide great daily content, preferably funny, because let's face it, the stock market is boring, that I'm missing? If you'd like to see something on my blogroll that isn't already there, add it to the comment section and I will run it by my "Blogroll Development Committee."

Thank you for your kind assistance.

Monday, September 22, 2008

The Pixies, "River Euphrates"

The Pixies were my favorite band in high school.  That makes me so much cooler than you that it's probably almost impossible for you to comprehend.  I saw them in concert at a place in NYC that doesn't even exist anymore... see?  And the thing is, at that concert, some drunk chick nearly broke my face with the back of her skull.  You get it yet?  Anyway, great song.

The RO Report, "Ban Oil Buyers" Edition

Seriously... the rip today in oil is unreal. Hank Paulson should immediately ban speculation. People should only be able to buy oil on a downtick. However, it would be better if people just couldn't bet on the upward price of oil at all. Why? Because people who are trying to force the price of oil higher are hurting America.

That is obvious.

Anyway, after a quiet morning, the RO heated up in the afternoon. The funny thing about not being able to short banks and insurers, is that everyone is looking for other things to short instead, since we all feel like the market is ultimately headed down, despite the government manipulation.

So the RO was short REITs, and the REITs tanked.

It was very un-American of us. Maybe in a few years, or perhaps a few short months, we'll be forced to do hard labor, for making money in the stock market in such an un-American way.

I also want to note the lack of volume today... after trading over 2 billion shares most days last week, trading 1.2 billion today felt really awful... perhaps all the shorts who were going to cover covered on Friday. And now, with no one who really wants to buy this market, the only thing people can do is "take profit."

Anyway, after two good days, I got complacent today and missed the really good money that was made between 3 and 3:30. I applaud the top of the RO for being able to maintain focus, after such ridiculously good days last week.

Out of 19 traders today, 15 were positive, or 79%. 4 traders finished up over $10,000 gross, and 11 finished up over $1,000 gross. I was #11 of 19.

Here are today's "bosses."

1. Trader D, $25,411 on 324k shares traded.
2. Trader Z, $18,381 on 93,400 shares traded.
3. Trader B, $12,644 on 567k shares traded.
4. Trader A, $10,462 on 420k shares traded.
5. Trader F, $4,445 on 74k shares traded.


And the "manservants."

1. Trader P, -$14,472 on 51k shares traded.
2. Trader C, -$3,525 on 131k shares traded.
3. Trader H, -$1,461 on 8,200 shares traded.
4. Trader I, -$886 on 17,800 shares traded.
5. Trader 3, $240 on 3,400 shares traded.

Down Goes The Dollar, Up Goes Oil

That's right... oil is up $14.50 on the DAY.



Thank you government bailout. Not only do you save the fucked up institutions that are costing taxpayers billions, but you're also helping to create a massive spike in the price of oil, since you're crushing the dollar.

Again, the little man is screwed.

Who Are You Voting For?

There's only 43 days left until election day... let's see if my readership gets this one right.

Who are you voting for?

1. McCain/Palin
2. Obama/Biden
3. Nader/Gonzalez

The Market Is Gay Again

Well, we were due for a letdown after last week's fun. Volume is down, stocks gapped all over the place, and it just feels were due for a day of death consolidation.

Sure the guys in the office are trading, but at this point, 70% of the office is down, and "Trader 3," up $66 on the day, is in the #7 position.

Perhaps we need to wait until Wednesday, when Bernanke and Paulson get "grilled" by Congress.

Will be back for the close.

NOTE: A few more companies were added to the "short ban" list. Ray has the details here.

They Might Be Giants, "Road Movie To Berlin"

I posted this song a few weeks ago, but here's the thing... listen to it NOW.

Obviously, it's not about the financial crisis... however, it's about some crisis, and I feel it makes a lot of sense to post it now, again. Lyrics below.



We're in a road movie to Berlin
Can't drive out the way we drove in
So sneak out this glass of bourbon
And we'll go.

We were once so close to heaven
Peter came out and gave us medals
Declaring us the nicest of the damned.

Time won't find the lost
It'll sweep up our skeleton bones
So take the wheel and I will take the pedals.

We're in a road movie to Berlin
Can't drive out the way we drove in
So sneak out this glass of bourbon
And we'll go.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

I'm Selling My Virginity

Sure I'm a Dad, but who cares?

 
Now, I don't think I'll get $1.5 mil, or be able to send myself to grad school with the proceeds, but it's cool, I just need a new surfboard. 

Developing...

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Interesting

Sure, if we're gonna spend a half trillion, I can think of better ways to spend it then on propping up companies that fucked up.

Friday, September 19, 2008

Bob Dylan, "A Hard Rain's A Gonna Fall"

The RO Report, "Fuck The Shorts" Edition

Well, it's been a memorable week. Actually, not. I can't remember yesterday. My head is abuzz, filled with nothing and everything at once. I'm just looking forward to walking out of this little office and entering the world again, if only for two days.

Who knows what Monday will bring?

Anyway, the open today was like no market I have ever witnessed in my nearly 10 years daytrading stocks. I'm not sure how many trades will be "busted," but there were so many prints at extreme prices, that I can't imagine they'll stand. But perhaps they will.

We've entered a bizarro market, where no one has any idea what anything is worth. The numbers on your screen mean less than they ever have before, and the rules can change at any moment. In other words, it's loads of fun, until everyone gets smoked and it's not anymore.

For now, we'll enjoy the volatility and pad our reserves for the next drought, which inevitably, will come.

So it was another amazing day for the RO. These guys take massive risk, but they're smart, and are currently enjoying the benefits of taking that risk. Out of 22 traders, 20 were gross positive, or 90%. 6 traders finished up over $100,000 and 9 traders finished up over $50,000. 14 of the 22 traders today finished over $10,000 gross. I was #10 of 22, or, nicely positive.

Also, I'd like to point out "Trader 3." If you look at these numbers and think everyone makes this money right out of the gate, you'd be mistaken. I believe (though I could be wrong) that "Trader 3" is a first time trader, so for you newbies, it could be interesting to watch his progress.

Here are today's "bosses."

1. Trader Z, $181,953 on 686k shares traded.
2. Trader D, $169,703 on 722k shares traded.
3. Trader P, $153,218 on 345k shares traded.
4. Trader B, $144,863 on 925k shares traded.
5. Trader A, $121,071 on 563k shares traded.


And the "manservants."

1. Trader N, -$3897 on 29,600 shares traded.
2. Trader 1, -$108 on 15,200 shares traded.
3. Trader 3, $120 on 3,800 shares traded.
4. Trader I, $1,387 on 13,000 shares traded.
5. Trader R, $2,649 on 76k shares traded.

Have a restful weekend.

Special Note To Larry Kudlow

Free market capitalism is DEAD, and Goldilocks is a crack whore.

All Trading Stories Here

This is a truly historic day. I won't be posting until I get the RO up at around 5pm. Until then, I leave it to you. Tell us what's going on where you're at.



QUICK NOTE: Hank Paulson broke the stock market. After that open, I'm surprised they're still letting stocks trade.

The SEC Institutes Ban On Short Selling 799 Financial Stocks

You can no longer sell the following companies short, at least until October 2nd. After that, they can extend the ban another 10 days.

There are 799 companies on the list. Think every financial.... if anyone knows where to find the list, please leave it in the comments.

Here are some of the big ones...

C, DB, WFC, MS, BCS, STI, WM, UBS, BAC, STT, etc.

I don't know how to explain this to those who don't trade stock. It is an unprecedented move. It's ultimately manipulative, and it's not how free markets work.

UPDATE: Here is the list.

The Government... Wrong Again

Look, they're coming after the wrong people.

Obviously, if people are spreading false rumors about a stock in order to send it down, that's wrong. However, it's just plain stupid to ban short selling.

How about this? Instead of focusing on the short sellers, try focusing on what made this mess possible in the first place. Companies being over-leveraged... how about the moral hazard created by our government? Let's ban moral hazard you fuckers!

I can think of a thousand different places to fix (financial media) before I tinker with the rules of the stock market, which have worked pretty well these last couple hundred years.

Oh, and lets not forget this. You take shorts out of stocks and kiss goodbye explosive short squeezes... those are some of the best rallies (like today's 400 point rally) that you can get!

UPDATE: The link on my blogroll called "Short Squeeze" will come in very handy today. For example, GHL... based on its average daily volume, it would take almost 35 days for all the shorts to cover.

Also, if you have a lot of long exposure to this market, today might be a good day to consider some off.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

How Could I Forget? It's "Porn Thursday!"

Fatboy Slim, "Praise You"

The RO Report, "RTC Bailouts RULE" Edition

This is the kind of day that traders will remember forever. They will either remember the money they made, or think about the money they could have made, or think about the money they lost.

The RO made... and it made BIG.

Odd shit started happening when the Dow dipped below 10,500. The selling in many stocks, STT, FII, and too many others to list, hit total panic levels.

Did you see GS drop below 100 and shoot down 15 points faster than you can say, "Regulation SHO?"

That, in case you didn't notice, was panic selling... it's the type of selling that makes bottoms. Indeed, shortly after that, JPM, WFC and USB starting showing strength and the market never turned back.

Two days ago I was telling my father to buy a gun to protect himself from the hordes of crazed people that were gonna scour the suburbs of NYC in search of food. But the disease of short-term traders is acute myopia. If you're not RIGHT THERE, stuck in the exact mood of the market, then you're really not able to do your job correctly. You have to feel extreme fear and you have to experience extreme greed.

Why? Because if you don't experience and feel it, you won't know it when you see it. Today we saw extreme fear. The flipside of panic selling, is always panic buying.

Anyway, I'm not ashamed to not have made the top 5 today. I did well. The fact is, the RO is home to some expert fucking traders who risk a shitload day in and day out. Again, props to "Trader D." Don't forget, 2 days ago, he lost $60,000. You think you could lose that much and come back like he has the last two days? Trust me, that's not normal. It takes a special personality type. Needless to say, today was the best day ever for everyone in the top 5.

So out of 21 traders today, 17 finished gross positive, or 81%. An astounding 5 traders finished up over $100,000 gross, 8 finished up over $50,000 gross, and 12 finished up over $10,000 gross. I was #9 of 21, and had my best day since starting this damned blog... just.

So here you have today's top 5 "bosses."

1. Trader D, $342,763 on 934k shares traded.
2. Trader B, $196,351 on 908k shares traded.
3. Trader A, $123,231 on 934k shares traded.
4. Trader F, $118,189 on 455k shares traded.
5. Trader Z, $107,472 on 473k shares traded.


And today's top 5 "manservants."

1. Trader H, -$2,791 on 9,400 shares traded.
2. Trader V, -$989 on 108k shares traded.
3. Trader I, -$817 on 41k shares traded.
4. Trader T, -$459 on 9,000 shares traded.
5. Trader 3, $233 on 3,000 shares traded.


Again, the RO is always looking for serious traders. If you have the Series 7, or don't mind studying a month to take it, email me for information.

The Bears Taking It Too Far?

Look, shouldn't they be happy with the 950 points in the last 2 days? They're not. Now they're going after our women.



Folks, this is war.

UPDATE: Apparently they have. My office was upset by that photo and put the bottom in. We have a couple guys up 6 digits at 2pm. Take a look at STT.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Pink Floyd, "Money"

If the keep printing money at the current rate, by the end of the year this song will be 42 minutes long. True story.

The End Of America?

Found this over at "the Fly's" place. Scary stuff.



He talks about hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic. Interesting.

People are getting angry. They will get even more angry before this is all over. They were just talking about it on Lou Dobbs... the first 5 months of taxes you pay each year goes to paying off the INTEREST on our national debt.

I just put my daughter to sleep. By the time she's paying taxes, it doesn't seem like there will be any funds left to pay for things like infrastructure, or education, or (gasp!) our War Machine. All of her taxes will go to paying off interest on a debt that can no longer be repaid.

She deserves better.

So let's do this right. Follow this link, find your representative, and tell them you're sick of this shit.

NOTE: Oh, and while I'm pissed off, I wanted to just remind everyone of something... remember when Dennis Kneale said stupid shit like we were "talking ourselves into a recession?" Seriously... let's get some real financial journalists please. Perhaps if our airwaves weren't filled with propaganda, regular people could get back involved in the process and take interest in the country.

The RO Report, "Short Sellers Are To Blame" Edition

Seriously, if these fucks think that short-sellers are to blame for the market malaise, then they have serious responsibility issues. I blame Danny.

Short sellers didn't cause these companies to over-leverage and take on shitty loans.

And nice timing, really, because after the market is down 900 points, in two days, we're due for a nice relief rally. So the regulators will look like geniuses, at least for a day.

Moving on... For those not actively trading the market, just know that the market ran 200 points from 2pm to 3pm, and then dropped 300 between 3pm and 4pm. That's not normal. The bulls tried... perhaps tomorrow they'll try harder.

Once again, the RO kicked ass. And once again, most of the gains came after 3:30. Out of 22 traders today, an astounding 21 finished gross positive, or 95%. 18 traders finished over $1,000 gross. I was #10 of 22, or nicely green.

If you're interested in joining the RO, shoot me an email. We're always looking for active traders with their Series 7 license. If you don't have the 7, or care to study for it (about a month) then don't bother writing.

Also, congrats to "Trader D" for his nice comeback after yesterday's smackdown... and also to "Trader V" for kicking ass and making the top 5.

Anyway, here are today's "bosses":

1. Trader D, $30,741 on 1.3 million shares traded.
2. Trader A, $22,264 on 244k shares traded.
3. Trader B, $20,413 on 857k shares traded.
4. Trader V, $13,168 on 109k shares traded.
5. Trader E, $9,262 on 284k shares traded.


And their manservants:

1. Trader N, -$3,716 on 35k shares traded.
2. Trader 3, $172 on 2,000 shares traded.
3. Trader L, $343 on 31k shares traded.
4. Trader G, $825 on 96k shares traded.
5. Trader O, $1,005 on 24,800 shares traded.

What If The Government Saved The World And No One Cared?

That seems to be the case today. With Goldman down 40%, MS looking like it's going to $10, what are they going to do now?

Is everyone hoping a big bank comes in and buys the remaining brokerages?

Really? Which big bank?

I wonder what would have happened if BSC was allowed to fail. Would we have seen serious deleveraging these last few months? Yes, it would have been painful, but would it have ended up saving more of these companies?

Bed, Bank of America, & Beyond

Inside The Emergency AIG Bailout Meeting

More on the bailout here.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Bob Marley, "Bad Card"

One of my favorite Marley tunes, excerpted...

The RO Report, "AIG Conservatorship" Edition

Well, today didn't turn out exactly how everyone planned, right? All the newspapers were talking about "panics" and "meltdowns" and then we rally. Oh, and this guy, who yesterday was nearly able to call the exact closing price of the Dow, said the world was going to end.

Apparently, the iBC machine caught a touch of "gay" overnight.

Moving forward... there were crazy rumors about AIG all day that were impossible to decipher... they're being bailed out by NY... no wait, they're only being bailed out if.... the FED is doing nothing for AIG... no wait, the FED is back at the table.

It made the day somewhat choppy. Oh, and we had an FOMC meeting to deal with.

Also, at first glance, you may look at the NYSE volume and be like, "Volume is BACK!" However, you'd be wrong. In fact, the volume was heavily concentrated in AIG... over 1 billion shares traded there. Insane.

Take a gander at CEG. That stock undressed traders and spanked them before buying them Fioravanti suits. In fact, word is that "Trader F" was down $70k in that stock alone before getting a "bailout" via a nice V bottom.

Despite the drama, it was a good day for the office minus one blow-up. Out of 22 traders, 14 finished gross positive, or 64%. 7 traders finished up over $5,000 gross and 12 finished over $1,000 gross. I was #14 of 22, but solidly in the green.

Anyway, here's the top 5:

1. Trader B, $24,217 on 882k shares traded.
2. Trader F, $17,379 on 234k shares traded.
3. Trader A, $13,057 on 120k shares traded.
4. Trader Z, $12,204 on 208k shares traded.
5. Trader E, $5,966 on 200k shares traded.


And the bottom:

1. Trader D, -$62,025 on 375k shares traded.
2. Trader N, -$6,946 on 23,000 shares traded.
3. Trader H, -$3,767 on 3,400 shares traded.
4. Trader P, -$1,841 on 157k shares traded.
5. Trader T, -$1,521 on 6,900 shares traded.


See you tomorrow. Oh, and if you enjoy reading this RO report each day, fucking link it or something... tell your friends. It's important for me to influence as many people as possible.

UPDATE: AIG may be placed under conservatorship. The shares are tanking after-hours. Here's a little Q&A on what a conservatorship is.

A Tough Hold Today For The Shorts

That was a beefy morning squeeze. Don't be surprised if/when we revisit the lows in the afternoon.

Getting Through A Tough Situation At Lehman

Monday, September 15, 2008

S&P Lowers AIG Credit Rating

S&P lowers their ratings on AIG and keeps them on watch negative. S&P lowered their long term counterparty rating to an A-2. Per CNBC.

Larry Fucking Kudlow just tried to spin it positively... I shit you not.

Hey Larry Kudlow... FUCK YOU!

This will increase the possibility of, and hasten the speed of an AIG bankruptcy.

They have a balance sheet of over a trillion dollars.

UPDATE: Maria just chirped in saying that over-regulation is exacerbating this problem. Note to Maria and all idiots everywhere.... had these firms been better regulated, perhaps they all wouldn't be over-leveraged. Listening to her and Larry love on each other because they agreed about over-regulation was just too much... CLICK!

They Might Be Giants, "Don't Let's Start"

The RO Report, "Monster MOCs" Edition

This is a very funny job. At 3:30, the market took traders down in my office. We were all short, naturally, into a legendary squeeze. Trader Z lost over $30 grand in that 5 minutes. Even me, your conservatively trading blogger, managed to lose a few thousand.

The bloodshed was real and widespread. People were freaked.

Who knew that only 30 minutes later, all of that money would be made back, with many thousands more tacked on? After a decade of trading, you see a lot... but I can tell you, that never have I seen stocks gap down like they did at today's close.

Check any REIT.

Anyway, I may write a post detailing the last 40 minutes of my day if I have time later this evening. I hope I do, if only so I can remember. Let me just say that at 3:30 I had lost over half my month and was feeling pretty sick about it. But by 4:15, I had tripled my month. Go figure.

Out of 22 traders today, 15 were positive, or 68%. I was #7 of 22. 12 traders finished over $1,000 gross, 10 over $5,000 gross. I had my best day of the year, by a long shot.

Meanwhile, if you're a little freaked out by the 500 point down move in the Dow, don't be. It could have been far, far worse. Indeed, the worst is still yet to come. However, ultimately, this is what needs to happen for the market to have solid footing yet again.

Here's the top 5:

1. Trader F, $95,989 on 228k shares traded.
2. Trader B, $70,782 on 1.2 million shares traded.
3. Trader D, $44,421 on 474k shares traded.
4. Trader E, $36,121 on 224k shares traded.
5. Trader P, $33,319 on 137k shares traded.


And the bottom:

1. Trader H, -$8,290 on 4,800 shares traded.
2. Trader Z, -$5,846 on 308k shares traded.
3. Trader T, -$1,894 on 9,000 shares traded.
4. Trader 1, -$1,405 on 7,200 shares traded.
5. Trader I, -$833 on 8,000 shares traded.