For "Noisy," who provided me with the live clip from the Conan show yesterday.
Thursday, August 30, 2007
For "Noisy," who provided me with the live clip from the Conan show yesterday.
HPT, $1500 on 130 contracts traded.
Evolution, $450 on 49,100 shares traded.
OBAT, $260 on 3000 shares traded.
Bubs, $106 on 300 shares traded.
Misstrade, no trades.
Me, no trades.
Denarii, -$10 on 400 shares traded.
Tapeworm, -$276 on 40 contracts traded.
Welcome to the "I just turned my computer on at 6pm" edition of the Virtual Office.
I've been at the beach for the last 12 hours. It's been wonderful. Also, I splurged on a (used) Robert August longboard. The last couple of days the surf here has been small and the waves have been dominated by old dudes with long white hair on longboards. It's time I got me a piece.
Anyway, people made money again! This bodes very well for the market in September. The market has been good to trade the entire month of August, a month that is typically very slow for traders.
Meanwhile, volume was lighter today than it was yesterday. 1,279,614,000 shares traded today on the NYSE.
Tomorrow I will probably post only the VO again. I appreciate your patience as I take some time off to chill out and get ready for the maelstrom which will be the stock market this fall.
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
I was reading Attitude Trader's blog tonight and he put up a bunch of new links that have to do with "luck." He always has interesting stuff over there (especially his "attitude index"), so you should check it out.
Anyway, one of the links he has up is for a site where a guy invests money he finds. Like, he'll find 12 cents a day but he invests it all and keep track of it. Just a lot of fun to read. Here's the link. It's called "Found Money Jar."
Misstrade, $2100 on 10,200 shares traded.
Evolution, $1652 on 65,600 shares traded.
OBAT, $236 on 5400 shares traded.
Tapeworm, $144 on 24 contracts traded.
Bubs, -$280 on 1600 shares traded.
Me, -$398 on 14,800 shares traded.
This market is so wacked out.
However, apparently if you're in the right frame of mind, it's worth trading. Me, I'm on vacation mentally and so I'm not even going to mess around anymore until Tuesday. However it's great to see Misstrade and Evolution making some hay.
Especially Evolution. Check his blog to see how he went through a mini-slump and has busted out of it. That kind of performance should be inspiring to all new or struggling traders.
Misstrade, well if you've been following this blog long enough you know he's kind of like a machine. He'll be off for the next 10 days. That should give some of us other slobs a chance to shine here in the VO.
It's good to see OBAT in the green, he's had a few rough ones recently.
And hats off to Tapeworm. On his first day in the VO he showed us stock traders that he has some chops.
Me and Bubs should have just stayed asleep today.
Anyway... my only market commentary is the following (and excuse me for sounding like a broken record)...Yes, the market rallied today but yesterday it sold off on higher volume... you'd rather see it sell off on light volume and rally on strong volume. Still, 250 points is 250 points... whatever.
We welcome "tapeworm" of Wallstreak and MovetheMarkets fame over to our Virtual Office today.
This worm contacted me a couple of weeks ago about joining the VO. At first, I turned him down because he is a lowly futures trader. I said we already had a "token" futures trader, HPT. However, after watching him post his numbers all alone everyday over at MtM, and after exchanging a few emails, I took pity on him.
Will the VO ever be the same? I doubt it. If I ever start talking about "R" on my site, you'll know the end is nigh.
Meanwhile you may be asking, why sign up another futures trader isn't your site about stock trading? Well, the answer to this question goes something like this... I keep these future traders on a short leash. Should we get a few more stock traders posting their stats here everyday, they will be the first to go. I think I can handle up to 10 traders total... Plus, I charge futures traders 10% of their daily take...
Every site needs a whipping boy. "The Fly" has Slope of Hope, Ducati has "the Fly" and I have futures traders.
NOTE: The Virtual Office post may be late today. Again, everything will be back to normal here after Labor Day. Until then, expect "service disruptions."
NOTE #2: You will no longer see the MtM link under my links. It is now listed under the name "Tapeworm" by the Virtual Office.
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Misstrade, $2610 on 24,000 shares traded.
Evolution, $2017 on 20,000 shares traded.
Me, $253 on 11,200 shares traded.
OBAT, -$33 on 3200 shares traded.
Denarii, -$136 on 4400 shares traded.
Wow, well, maybe I picked the wrong week to "take off." But you know, I'm just recharging the batteries.
The market got killed today. And while it got killed on relatively light volume, one should notice that while light, the volume was still stronger than it has been on our most recent up days. That means only one thing, the market is still going through bouts of distribution. It's ugly out there.
Volatility should continue into September. Thank the trading gods.
NOTE: No daily post tonight. I made my money shorting BBD...
I planned on trading this morning, but the surf was just too clean and pretty to pass up.
So instead I barely traded this afternoon. Clearly with the market down 245 points I'm missing some opportunities. However, everyone needs a vacation.
Here's another nice and mellow song to go with my nice and mellow day.
Monday, August 27, 2007
HPT, $1800 on 103 contracts traded.
Evolution, $1223 on 30,400 shares traded.
Misstrade, $960 on 12,000 shares traded.
Denarii, $86 on 800 shares traded.
Bubs, $46 on 400 shares traded.
Me, no trades.
OBAT, -$200 on 5000 shares traded.
Damn! What'd I miss?
Out of nowhere... on a beautiful summer Monday the week before Labor Day, the VO turns out a sweet day.
I'm upset I missed the action but it's great to see the market is still moving well for traders as we head into September.
I'll be back trading tomorrow. Let's hope I can find as much as the VO did today.
Saturday, August 25, 2007
I don't watch a lot of movies but most people seem to love them. The movies I do like, most people don't. So, for my entire life if I'm hanging out with 2 other people and they start talking about movies I've been forced to do something silly like, say something completely random or pretend to care.
Anyway, so we just watched this movie "Hannah Takes The Stairs" that I thought was really impressive. We knew nothing about it, we just picked it off of the "On Demand" menu because the trailer looked interesting.
The writing was great and the acting was almost so real that it made me feel like a voyeur (it helps that people are dressing and undressing throughout the movie and that they're very normal looking bodies). It was completely different than anything I've seen. Just make sure you get through the first 10 minutes or so... or whenever the first break-up scene is. That's when it hooked me.
So anyway, I'm not going to say you should see it or anything because I have the feeling that it may not suit most people. However, here's the trailer. If you're in the mood for a slightly serious minded movie and you don't want to see beautiful people or things blow up or blood, check it out.
This is one of the more interesting videos I've seen in awhile.
I mean, I guess this guy was going to perform a song. But the "host" of the show starts off reading poetry or more like, yelling poetry. I don't know... I guess you'll just have to watch it.
Oh, and look for my guest appearance in the video.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Evolution, $1315 on 30,400 shares traded.
Denarii, $95 on 1400 shares traded.
Me, $19 on 2400 shares traded.
Bubs, $13 on 800 shares traded.
OBAT, -$240 on 5094 shares traded.
My goodness! I can't believe the Dow was up so big.
The Bulls apparently are not the ones vacationing in the Hamptons this summer. They are at work bidding up stocks on no volume while the Bears are sipping Corona's on the beach.
I tell you what... I think the Bears are getting good and rested. Once the volume comes back into this market I don't think it will be to the upside.
Anyway, Evolution decided he wanted to make some money today. He's been on a great streak and it's great to see because for a while he was on the rocks. Congrats ET.
Meanwhile, since I barely traded today I won't be posting a daily. See you Monday!
Mellow song for a summer Friday. As the traffic in my neighborhood shoots to a peak during the next week, I'll think often of this song.
Words of wisdom all around
But no one ever seems to listen
They're talking about their plans on paper
Building up from the pavement
There are shadows from the scrapers on the pavement
It's enough to make me sigh
But that don't seem like it would make it feel better
The words are still around
But the words are only sounds
And no one ever seems to listen
Instead they'll say
Well how could we have known?
I'll tell them it's not so hard to tell
If you keep on adding stones
Soon the water will be lost in the well
So we're off to a really slow start today.
10:00 yesterday: 204,379,000 shares traded on the NYSE.
10:00 today: 149,017,000 shares traded on the NYSE.
Things will slow further as this summer Friday rolls on.
People are already gone. Preserve your trading capital. If you have one or two good trades, call it a day. I'm out of here. I'll post the VO later but it may be late again.
Here's a slow motion video. Some of this stuff is really cool.
Okay, today I've actually made plans in the middle of the day so that I'll be forced to only trade a half day.
Meanwhile, not sure if anyone has noticed, but I removed the Stockalicious thing from my site. Really... who was checking it? I'm awful at the long-term stuff. However, that said, I'm very happy with how my GAIA has held up during this period of market turmoil.
Also, yesterday I purchased a little HCBK. I feel very responsible purchasing a bank stock in my long term portfolio. Banks aren't a fad.
Anyway, here's what I like about it. Check out all that volume that has come into the stock in the last 5 weeks. Basically, it is being accumulated by institutions. That's what volume like that tells you. Your run of the mill retail investor isn't purchasing bank stocks in the middle of the media frenzy over sub-prime. The stock is pennies away from an all-time high. However, look at a monthly graph and you'll see this stock isn't a "growth" vehicle. This is a safety play.
The stock was featured yesterday on CNBC. However, a friend of mine who is very successful in real-estate mentioned it to me a few days earlier. He said that it was the only bank he knew of that didn't sell it's mortgages.
So, if the polar ice caps don't melt and sink the US in the next 100 years, I plan on passing this stock onto my great-great-great grandchildren... that is assuming all of my children don't turn out to be gay.
DISCLAIMER: This post should not be taken as a recommendation for you to purchase any securities mentioned within. And, unfortunately, the polar ice caps are going to melt and all of my children will all turn out to be gay so I will not have any financial responsibility in 30 years. Therefore I can throw my money around purchasing "risky" stocks like HCBK.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
I woke this morning a little depressed that I wouldn't be surfing. Getting up early to go surfing has been a great routine. Wake before the sun, drive to my friend's house, and then drive east to the break as the sun rises. I've seen many colorful sunrises these last few weeks.
So I crawled out of bed a little later and did some extra research. With the CFC and BAC news, I knew the market would be gapping up. I hate trading the open when the market gaps up. Why? Because I often feel all bullish and buy a bunch of stuff pre-open and then lose 25 cents over and over again.
Perhaps it's because I feel fairly strongly that this recent move up is a bull trap, I don't know, I decided to fade the gap up. It worked pretty well. There were two exceptions, I got long FED and DSL at the open because I knew both have large short interests and so I figured they would squeeze on the CFC news. Great logic right? FED worked like a charm but DSL spanked me. So much for logic.
Anyway, after those plays I started looking for shorts. My best of the day was in LDK, a solar company.
The rest of the solars were down or weaker than LDK, so I threw in a short for 500 shares and was filled at $45.20. That was the best part of the trade. My covers were bad. I took 200 off at $45.10 (I was nervous, okay?) 100 at $44.60, 100 at $44.03 and the final hundred at $43.39. I think when things heat up again I'm going to increase my position size a bit so that I can cover a chunk of my positions early and let more ride.
Anyway, I had a bunch of other good shorts too. RWT, AGU, BID and OMG. The problem with all of these positions was that I only threw a few hundred shares of each out there so I didn't really capitalize like I could have. But I wanted to take it easy... heck, I should be on vacation right now!
So by 10:45 I was done trading. I went with my wife and daughter to a natural history museum, a puppet show and out to lunch. After lunch I got a call from my friend saying that the winds had shifted in our favor and I went out to surf for the afternoon. Then, when I got home we had a good friend over for dinner. All in all, it was as great day.
Again, sorry for the lazy and infrequent posting. All will be back to normal here after Labor Day.
Here's the stats:
Best, LDK, $397
Worst, DSL, -$197
13,400 shares traded.
14 stocks traded, 9 winners, 5 losers.
Me, $1008 on 13,400 shares traded.
OBAT, $248 on 12,800 shares traded.
Misstrade, $118 on 600 shares traded.
HPT, $100 on 305 contracts traded.
Evolution, $43 on 28,000 shares traded.
Denarii, $30 on 400 shares traded.
Bubs, $20 on 900 shares traded.
Wow, look at all of that green! Everyone reported and everyone made money. Always nice.
The big news of the day was the Bank Of America investment in Countrywide. However, equally newsworthy has to be the way the stock reversed off of its highs to close at its lows.
Volume continues to be low. On the NYSE today we traded 1,375,722,000 shares. Since I think volume is so important, I'll start posting it here everyday.
Anyway, sorry for the late post. I was in the water...
NOTE: Daily post will also be late as we're having dinner guests.
Winds are just messing up the waves right now. I actually wrote a fairly long post last night about the waves and currents but it's not ready for the blog yet. Too sloppy... like the surf.
So this was the first morning in a week where I didn't wake at 5am to go to the beach. While I missed getting in the water first thing, I feel I benefited greatly from the extra sleep. Winds will shift tonight and I'll be back in the water tomorrow.
As for trade, that BAC investment in CFC is huge. If we can close today with good gains on strong volume, I may have to change my tune about the direction of the market.
Meanwhile, the video below should act as a warning to those of you who pay too much attention to the market and not enough attention to the world around you. Kind of... not really actually. It's just a Monty Python thing.
Enjoy "The Dull Life Of A City Stockbroker."
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
A lot of you may not like this song. However, it's important for you to realize that that doesn't mean it's a bad song... it just means you don't "get it."
Anyway, it's the first "real" video from the upcoming Animal Collective album "Strawberry Jam." I can't wait for it to be released. However, despite my anticipation, the record company probably won't release it any earlier, just to be nice to me.
Anyway, this video features a love story between a girl with some "mouth" issues and a space alien. They go to a carnival, engage in some high-school type pranks, hook up, get caught by the cops and then blast off to space together.
If you don't cry when you watch this beautiful story unfold, you're one cold fucker.
Find a new Animal Collective mp3, at I Guess I'm Floating. The guy who runs that blog, incidentally, has almost my exact musical taste.
NOTE: Tonight my daughter should go to sleep early. That raises the probability of me writing a non-stock market related post later tonight.
Not really a half day. I traded very lightly from 9:30 to 10:30 and then from 3 to 4pm. I think that will be my modus operandi for awhile.
I had more important things to do... like, go to a vacuum repair store.
Surf has been rough lately. Need the winds to shift.
Now, back to the market.
I got really lucky with LNN right off the open. I bought 200 shares at the open and sold it about 3 minutes later for a point. Silly, I know. But whatever, it was my best stock of the day. I made $180 in it.
On the other hand, I took a little smack in AVB today.
The REITS were rallying early and so I bought some AVB around $118.45. It immediately dropped. Ugly. Anyway, I didn't get crazy or anything, I just sold. Meanwhile, I've decided this stock trades like shit and so I'll be avoiding it from now on. I mean, if the stock is doing one thing while the REIT index is doing something entirely different I don't want to watch it.
So it looks like there was good money to be made today. The solar stocks were strong, the metals were very strong, and... well, most everything was strong.
Still, I'm happy to watch this market largely from the sidelines right now. If I can manage to make a little bit of money each day from here until Labor Day while also enjoying time away from the screens I'll be ready for the "real sell off" in September.
To me, this feels like a bull trap. However, time will tell.
Here's the stats:
Best, LNN, $180
Worst, AVB, -$140
shares traded, 12,800.
11 stocks traded, 6 winners, 5 losers.
Evolution, $459 on 24,900 shares traded.
Me, $108 on 12,800 shares traded.
HPT, $100 on 74 contracts traded.
Misstrade, $0 on 600 shares traded.
Bubs, no trades... becoming a suburbanite.
Denarii, -$42 on 1000 shares traded.
OBAT, -$312 on 17,200 shares traded.
Well I guess anyone can look at the Dow and think the witch is dead and all that but they'd be forgetting something really important about witches. Witches eat children.
And that's important, because if children are the future then this market is in trouble.
I mean, yeah, we've bounced from the "bottom" but on really low volume. I think the price action is great, especially in the metal stocks, but I wouldn't be out there buying this "rally" with both hands just yet. But that's me. I'm just a daytrader and therefore I suffer from chronic myopia.
However, I have to say the late-day rallies are encouraging.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Yeah, it's feeling more like August now. In the market at least... what's with this weather? 57 degrees? Damn!
Anyway, I lost some money today. I never explained yesterday either, so I'll start with that.
See that second 5-minute bar? Well I got short around $104.50. The stock spiked up to $105 on like 300 shares. I was pissed and so I doubled my short. Then, it spiked up to $106.
So I hit my $1000 loss limit for the day. I called my company and asked for $500 more. They obliged. I got short again... initially, it worked, but then it ran to a new high and stopped me out up there. So, I lost another $500 and then the stock tanked.
Anyway, I basically did all the wrong things on the trade. It set off all kind of alarms here and I came into today confident that I wouldn't do anything stupid again. However...
See how AG ran up to $40? Well the other stocks in the sector were weak (and AG is no leader) so I got short at $40. I covered at $40.30. I was pissed and then pulled a revenge trade and got long. I got out at $39.80. Ugly all around folks. I lost almost $500 in the stock.
Basically, my head is out of the game. I was supposed to leave for vacation on Sunday but cancelled and hung around in case Hurricane Dean hit the oil rigs and the US. Meanwhile, it didn't. So while I'm here physically, mentally I think I'm on vacation. Instead of beating myself up over these last 2 days, I'm going to focus on the last few weeks and take some time. Perhaps I'll try a few swing trades or take only a couple of longer term trades each day. We'll see.
Here's the stats:
Best, UBB, $241
Worst, AG, -$464
shares traded, 38,000
24 stocks traded, 11 winners, 13 losers.
Evolution, $548 on 37,400 shares traded.
HPT, $400 on 75 contracts traded.
Bubs, $241 on 1800 shares traded.
Denarii, -$2 on 1600 shares traded.
OBAT, -$375 on 13,000 shares traded.
MT, -$615 on 3000 shares traded.
Me, -$640 on 38,000 shares traded.
Another red day for the VO marking our second in as many days.
Once the FED cut that discount window rate the volatility dried right up. So for the time being, it's smart to be more careful with your trades. You can't expect the big moves that we had last week and the week before. You have to pick your spots better... and probably pick fewer spots.
Like I mentioned in my previous post, I'll be taking it very easy from here until after Labor Day barring anything insane happening. That said, I'll still post the VO every day. I'll also probably take one or two trades a day just to keep myself in the game a little bit.
So while posting will dry up with the market volume here, it won't be completely dead.
Yesterday, according to the IBD, the volume on the NYSE declined 38% from Friday's level. Today, I think we'll probably decline another 20% from yesterday's light levels... it's slow and choppy and time to either trade extremely lightly or just take off until after Labor Day.
That little piece of wisdom cost me $2500 over the last 2 days. Stocks are dead.
So here's the deal. I'll continue to post the VO each day however, don't expect much more stock news from my site for the next couple of weeks. I don't plan on trading much unless something wacky happens.
Instead, I'll be outside. I'll be surfing a lot and spending a lot of time with my daughter. She's starting nursery school in the middle of September. She's my first child and in a way, I'm a little sad that she's already off to "school." More to the point, I'm downright bothered by it.
Imagine how I'll be when she gets her first boyfriend.
Anyway, so if I post anything here it will be more like, "around the house" or "my history" posts.
Please don't let my feelings on the market effect your trade. Evolution and HPT are on a nice little streak and OBAT continues being quietly green on most days. I'm sure there is money to be made. I think that after the last few weeks I'm just a little burnt out. In fact, I was burnt out before the last few weeks. The last few weeks I was simply on overdrive.
I'm happy that in the midst of all my money-making in the last few weeks that I didn't lose clarity and think:
a) I'm a genius
b) The Hybrid Market isn't so bad after all...
Basically, I'm still an idiot and I still think the Hybrid Market sucks. Sure, maybe it's okay when everyone thinks the financial system is going to collapse, but when people relax, it sucks.
Anyway, after yesterday I'm taking it much easier today. The mistake I made was trading like it was last week. However, things have chilled significantly. I can forget about the multi point trades with size and get back to hoping for and taking smaller pieces of pie.
Back to the grind in other words...
Monday, August 20, 2007
HPT, $1000 on 49 contracts.
Evolution, $289 on 52,600 shares traded.
OBAT, $170 on 3600 shares traded.
Denarii, $70 on 1800 shares traded.
Misstrade, no stock trades.
Bubs, -$638 on 3400 shares traded.
Me, -$1704 on 7400 shares traded.
Well, our overall number was pretty crappy today, but it's mainly because Bubs and I, especially "I", turned in crapper days.
I'd love to comment on the market, but the truth is, I split when I hit my limit and enjoyed the rest of the day. It looks like we had a nice rally between 2 and 3 though and I'm sure some money was made there.
And while we finish in the green for the second day in a row, the volume really lagged. I'm guessing that the start of vacation season is finally hitting Wall Street now that the drama of the last few weeks has begun to subside.
Let's see what tomorrow brings. Sorry for the lack of posting today. That may happen more until we hit Labor Day. While I cancelled my vacation, if the market isn't in the giving mode, I'll be more than happy to spend a day or two on the beach.
NOTE: I think Blogger is going down at 7pm... not sure if I'll have my daily post up in time.
Yep, I was done trading by 10:00am today, courtesy of the Risk Management team at my company.
I hereby curse Brazil and all of its banks.
I will elaborate on this later.
For now, I'll be Mr. Mom and go grocery shopping with my 2.5 year old daughter. This is my punishment for getting thick headed today. Good luck, it looks choppy out there.
Friday, August 17, 2007
I took it really easy today. So easy in fact, that I don't have too much to report here.
I was long 200 (UBB) overnight. It gapped up 7 points. I sold in the high $104s.
Problem was that I started to buy it back at around $99. It wanted to go down to $96. I lost about half of my gains getting in and out as it dropped those 3 points. What's worse however, is that I had about 800 shares again from around $96.20 and sold out at $96.50.
I was conditioned by all of my bad trades in the stock to think he was going lower again and I just sold when I had a quick profit. Basically, he ran up the rest of the day as you can see. That really pissed me off. However, instead of getting all vengeful and chasing it I let it go and walked away from trading for a couple of hours.
Before I took off though I got short some (MOS) and rode it down for a decent profit.
I didn't trade at all between 11:00 and 3pm. I just chilled, added some features to the blog and watched the idiots on CNBC.
At 3pm, I noticed that (MLM) looked like it might pop out of the base it had been forming all day.
It didn't make it... however, that didn't stop me from believing that it WOULD make it eventually... this was stupid and it led to my worse loss on the day as I stubbornly held expecting the stock to bust higher.
Anyway, thanks all for reading along this week. It's been lots of fun. Unfortunately, I had to cancel my vacation for next week because of all the volatility. I'm keeping a close eye on Hurricane Dean and the oil stocks for next week. If nothing develops there, it may be vacation time until after Labor Day. I'll keep you posted.
Here's the stats:
Best, UBB, $593
Worst, MLM, -$621
shares traded, 39,000
23 stocks traded, 16 winners, 7 losers
NOTE: Be sure to check out the new "Feed" options I have placed on the blog and let me know what you think.
Me, $2667 on 37,000 shares traded.
HPT, $1000 on 84 contracts.
Evolution, $632 on 13,500 shares traded.
Bubs, no trades.
Misstrade, no stock trades.
OBAT, -$315 on 3400 shares traded.
Well, for a summer Friday this one was fairly wild. The FED cut the discount window rate by 50 basis points and put at least a short term bottom into the market.
After we spiked up in the morning we lost half the gains in the futures and then basically got them all back by the close.
On tap for Monday is a greater understanding of how Hurricane Dean is going to effect this market, if at all.
Have a great weekend everyone. Enjoy the perfect weather on the East Coast. If you go into the water, watch out for the sharks.
Watch how he rips our friend Erin Burnett apart at the end. Note too that I highlighted her stupidity in this post a few days before it got to the Daily Show.
Mr. Stewart? Please... if you're reading I would much rather write some good, ass-kicking comedy than trade. Just don't plagiarize me or I'll sue you. Shoot me an email.
NOTE: Screw Maria and her Junior Park Ranger pin....
UPDATE: Subaru has responded to this post, so I've bumped it. See their response in the comments section. I still say the ads suck and are misleading. However, I give them props for stopping the "Dinosaur Trader public relations nightmare blitzkreig" from having a chance to develop.
I've been waiting to find this damn commercial on Youtube for awhile. They play it over and over again on CNBC.
A guy, with a little stubble, wearing "natural fiber" clothing standing among trees talking about how nice Subaru is to the environment. Ah yes! The air is so crisp and clean at the Subaru auto plant! LOL!
Here's the real deal.
If Subaru is so damned friendly to the environment, why did they raise the clearance of the Outback so that it could be classified as a small truck? Was it to help the little bunnies, deer and trees at their "environmentally friendly plant" in Indiana?
Nope. It was to exploit a loophole that would allow the Outback to get WORSE FUEL ECONOMY.
Now, if you totalled the extra carbon emitted from the millions of the very popular Outbacks on the road today that now get fewer miles per gallon due to the exploitation of this loophole, I'd venture a guess that it dwarfs the carbon saved from their little "green plant" in Indiana that they tout so highly.
So to Subaru I say, "Fuck you!" for lying to the consumers.
To you, the consumer, I say, beware "greenwash" and let Subaru know that they aren't duping you.
Hey, I don't know a damn thing about feeds, I'll admit it. However, after watching today's Wallstrip, I was inspired to set up a blog feed since I thought the Sphere idea was very interesting.
So now there is a little link along the right sidebar where you can subscribe to the Dinosaur Trader "feed."
If this has caused problems for people who were subscribed in some other way, let me know. I'm just trying out some new stuff here.
NOTE: Meanwhile, let me know if the site is acting funny or anything.
I'm never really good at morning gap-ups so I've been taking it easy.
However, I still managed to make a bunch of good trades mostly on the short side. I caught nice shorts in both MOS and AGU.
One exception was a gap-up long in UBB. I had 200 shares and watched it gap close to 7 points. I took profits but then gave half back trying to buy it again. I just missed catching a really great long in it but I sold for no good reason in the $96s... that's when I decided it was time to step away.
Anyway, there was loads of opportunity out there. If you're into short scalping, as "Streetsmack" over at Wallstreak is, then this has been your type of day.
For me, I'm a little mentally exhausted from yesterday. For now, I'm taking my nice gains on the day and chilling out until further notice. If my buddy is able to hit the water again, I'll be doing that this afternoon instead of trading. We'll see.
I'll leave the "Rs" to Prospectus and Richard today...
Meanwhile, "the Fly" has a bunch of speculative hurricane plays... that is, if you feel Hurricane Dean will "mushroom cloud" the Gulf Coast, as he apparently does.
Anyway, I can't answer them all because it's going to be another very busy morning but I just wanted to say thanks.
It made a nice day even better.
Anyway, so I found a nice punk cover of "Wind Beneath My Wings" that features an animation of an evil Bette Midler for you.
I mean, this would have been nicer if we had a chance to get long on the day first!
Anyway, the futures went from being down to shooting higher. Check the 5-minute.
The Dow is set to open up over 250 points.
This may make trading very difficult today. I mean, we'll just have to see how stocks open. My only overnight long is 200 shares of UBB. Sigh...
Great waves this morning.
UPDATE: Art Cashin (one of the only voices of reason) on CNBC has this to say about the rate cut and the ensuing market action.
"It's a massive short-covering rally. It's unusual that they chose to cut the "discount window rate" instead of the Fed Funds rate but they're saying, 'look we're on top of this' and it shows they may do more down the road. Meanwhile, Art says that the Yen is still critical and that he's watching it closely.
When asked by Joe Kernan, Art said an "intermediate term low" was reached in the market yesterday but said he didn't think it was the final capitulation.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Okay... I've put the trading behind me. I mean, I made so many trades that it's hard to remember each one specifically.
I remember more the mood of the moment... like, "The market is going to zero, why aren't I short?" And then later, "The market is going unched... this stock looks overbought but, I'll buy more!"
Let's start at the beginning.
I woke at 4:45 to go surfing. I picked up my friend at 5:10 and drove the 25 minutes to the break. When we got there, the sky was gray, it was misty and cold and the surf was sloppy. There was an old guy in the parking lot waxing his long board. I've seen him at least 10 times before. I said "Good morning!" to him and he didn't even bother to look up. We decided not to get in the water.
To be honest, I'm developing an irrational fear of sharks. If conditions aren't perfect, I don't go in. My friend just thinks I'm picky about the surf, but really, I'm afraid of sharks. Now that I've gone and admitted that to the blogosphere, I'm bound to be eaten by a Great White soon. The story is too perfect. Perhaps I should just delete that line... no. It's too late. It's fated to happen.
"Obscure Blogger With Irrational Fear Of Sharks Eaten By Great White." Sigh...
So we went and got breakfast. Egg sandwiches and coffee and then we headed back to his place to eat them out on the porch. His wife and children were just waking up. I asked his 3 year old daughter if I could have one of her ears since she has two. She said no.
We ate our sandwiches and I said that I would have to put off my vacation for next week. The market had finally been giving me opportunity and I had to take advantage. He said, "Yeah, when it's quiet again, you can just fly somewhere."
Little did my friend know that I have an irrational fear of flying. However, this I shared with him. I told them that I never flew when I was younger. The first time I ever flew anywhere was just a few years ago and that was to Japan. I didn't realize that I didn't like to fly until we were halfway across Canada.
They had that map up that showed where you were in relation to where you were going. A little dotted line showed the route the plane was taking. For some reason, I was looking at that map and seeing that we were going to fly over the Bering Sea I immediately developed an irrational fear of the Bering Sea. I told my wife, "I think the plane is going to go down into the Bering Sea... it's going to be cold." She told me I was nuts and that I should listen to some music, drink some water, and apply some chapstick.
Long story short, we made it over the Bering Sea. However, on the return trip home when we were directly over the Bering Sea, I had a panic attack. This is all true. Anyway, so I don't like to fly.
Wow. I'm tired. I had other plans for this post, I promise. Need to sleep though.
At around 2:30pm, I thought it was 11:00am... no joke.
It's hard to begin this post. As you can imagine, I feel a little light-headed right now... almost shellshocked.
Look at the above graph of the Dow. I was long between 15k and 20k of stock at that point right when it decided to drop 200 points. I mean, I was in a bunch of stocks... I had no choice but to sell, because trust me, at 3:00pm, it certainly looked like we were going to test the lows of the day, we were only 50 points away on the Dow...
I liquidated every single one of my positions. And I called my wife up to ask her if I had enough "buffer" to trade the rest of the day. She gave me a big smile and said that I was doing fine.
I now know that I was up about $11,000 when she checked at 3pm. I'm pretty sure I lost close to $10,000 between 2pm and 3pm... with all of those positions, it was hard not to.
Anyway, I'm not sure if I should do this chronologically or what. Here's my best stock of the day, HXM.
Here are my trades from the last hour of the day in this stock:
15:17 Buy 500 @ 45.97 (500)
15:22 Buy 300 @ 46 (800)
15:24 Sell 100 @ 45.89 (700)
15:24 Sell 200 @ 45.88 (500)
15:27 Buy 300 @ 46.14 (800)
15:28 Buy 400 @ 46.26 (1200)
15:28 Buy 300 @ 46.41 (1500)
15:33 Buy 300 @ 46.56 (1800)
15:35 Sell 300 @ 47.13 (1500)
15:38 Sell 300 @ 46.82 (1200)
15:45 Sell 500 @ 46.86 (700)
15:57 Sell 200 @ 48.35 (500)
15:58 Sell 200 @ 49.14 (300)
15:59 Sell 300 @ 50 (flat)
This is less skill and more like, being in the right place at the right time. In fact, I'd love to have those 500 shares I sold at $46.86 back...
My second best stock of the day was PCP. I made $3900 in him. Again, mostly in the last hour. I had 500 shares for the entire move.
And then, there's UBB...
I traded 26,000 shares of UBB alone today. I basically built up a really nice position for the run from $92 to $100. Of course, I didn't hold it all... I was selling on the way up. But here's the part that sucked. I never saw it trade $100... and really, the next thing I know it was trading $96 again. 4 points gone in less than 5 minutes. I added at around the $96 level and had over 2000 shares when it plummeted down to $94. I got out, cursing. I had just given between $5,000 and $10,000 away in the stock in very short order.
However, I did buy back, quite aggressively, though not until it traded back up to $96. I was too battered in the stock to be buying when it was $93... at that point, I was sure it was headed back to the lows. That's about the same time that I called Judy in to check my P&L. I was really dejected at that point because I knew I had just thrown thousands away. In fact, and I know this may seem crazy now, but I asked her to check because I thought I might be close to negative on the day.
Anyway, while these were my 3 big winners of the day the real deal is that I had 12 winners for over $1000 today while my biggest loser of the day was $761. That's how the numbers added up like they did.
So TBSI was my worst. The reason? It just didn't bounce! I mean, it did have a move from $26 to $28... but I didn't catch it. Luckily, I never had more than 400 shares of the stock. I got chopped multiple times in him.
Sorry this post is lame but I'm shot. I'm walking away from the computer now and going to get dinner with friends. Perhaps after dinner I'll be able to reflect some more. Right now, my head is still spinning.
Here's the stats:
Best, HXM, $4239
Worst, TBSI, -$761
shares traded, 211,400
49 stocks traded, 33 winners, 16 losers
NOTE: If you haven't already, please vote in my poll. Thanks!
Me, $28,077 on 211,400 shares traded.
HPT, $2200 on 175 contracts traded.
Bubs, $1057 on 2900 shares traded.
OBAT, $723 on 12,200 shares traded.
Evolution, $524 on 58,200 shares traded.
Misstrade, no stock trades.
I'm not sure if anyone else noticed this, but the Dow rallied 300 points in the last hour of the day.
Needless to say, the market is freaking crazy right now.
Well, hey, why should the fun stop now? Just because the market ripped here doesn't mean "sub-prime" goes away.
We could get rate cuts, hurricanes, who the heck knows?
The VO kicked ass today. Bubs had his best day ever and I had my best day since the heady days of the year 2000.
NOTE: Oh, and for those who voted the Dow would hit 12,500 before 14,000 you can't declare victory just yet... the low of the day was 12,518...
Blogger not allowing me to post pictures right now... but Dow is down over 300.
I have no shorts. Instead, I've chosen to nibble at longs and I keep getting slaughtered. It's a bloodbath. Thank goodness for the risk manager.
We'll see how this ends. I'm just trying to stay in the game long enough today so I can catch the bounce.
The entire market is getting flushed.
Somehow, he eluded our traps and is back, scampering around on the floor of the exchange.
Check out the VIX. It's a traders market. However, that said, there's a good chance I'm a little smoked right now. I got wildly bullish just after 10 and took some losses. It'll be a day of big gains and big losses. It's gonna be tough.
At least not in the ocean. A swell is suppossed to come in for the weekend, but the water will be too crowded for me then.
So we went down, looked at the water, watched a couple of guys paddling around, sipped coffee and swapped 9/11 stories. Fun!
Anyway, more bad news this morning. Just about everything on my screen looks to be gapping down. However, if I were a betting man, I'd bet on a bounce at some point today.
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
I figured it was a good idea to post that weekly graph of the futures. As you can see, we're just about where we were on January 1st, 2007.
It's a different story for the Dow. It's still up a few hundred points for the year.
Anyway, it was a wild day for stock trading yet again. With Hurricane Dean looming in the Caribbean and huge companies like CFC having serious trouble, this volatility shows no sign of ending. I'll say that at least in my mind, it feels like our entire financial system is about to collapse. So far, I don't think stocks have fully priced in that type of fear. I think it will take that type of fear induced capitulation plus some financial companies opening up their books and letting people know how deep the sub-slime is to hit some type of bottom... that, or some type of FED bailout in the form of a deep rate cut. But whatever, I'm a trader.
Here's my best stock of the day, UBB.
Ironically enough, I missed the short that melted the stock from 2pm into the close. I made my money on the long side, between 9:45 and 10:00. I actually think that's a really good thing because it tells me that I'm very open-minded about the market right now. I got crippled for a couple of months after the February panic because I could only see shorts. So I'm happy that while the tone of the market is overwhelmingly bearish right now I managed to pull good money from the long side.
At the same time that I caught the UBB long, I also made good money on corresponding longs in AB and CNS. It was all about the financials rallying at that point of the day due to some Fed action. Again, I'm not an economist so I really don't know what they did. But, I don't care. As a trader my job is to react to movement in the market, not to necessarily understand what's causing the movement.
In fact, often the more you know as a trader, the worse off you can be. Because when you know too much, you can start telling yourself stories. And when you start believing your stories you can get stuck in bad trades. The only story you pay attention to is the price and volume action.
Another thing I didn't understand was the movement in AMG today. And wow, my timing was also awful in this stock. Basically, it was spiking up and down a point at the time as you can see on the 5-minute graph below.
I really got sucked into him today and made bad trades over and over. All of them were on the short side. The stock was just choppy today and I shouldn't have been trading it. I think I was watching it because it's my best stock on the month. However, I need to remember that the past is gone forever. Just because I made money in him a week ago means nothing about my ability to make money in him today, or tomorrow.
Anyway, the futures are down a bit again overnight. FXY is trading $86... it doesn't look like we're close to going down just yet. However, I'd expect some type of little rally attempt soon.
Here's the stats:
Best, UBB, $1131
Worst, AMG, -$998
shares traded, 39,600
27 stocks traded, 20 winners, 7 losers
I'm not talking about NYSE "ticks", here, I'm referring to the tiny disease ridden parasites that thrive where I live.
This past weekend, I filled up my daughter's inflatable pool and placed it on the back patio. She was splashing around, talking about farm animals and puppets and generally having a blast.
That's when I noticed a small black dot under her right armpit.
"What's that under your armpit?"
Immediately, she scowled at me and tucked her arm tight against her body. Taking a look at the "black dot" let alone prying it off, would not be easy. She sensed trouble... "I want Mommy!"
Thus summoned, Judy came outside and in her sing-songy voice said, "Let me see what's under your arm, honey!" My daughter tersely replied, "No! You will not look under my arm!"
We stepped into the house. Extreme cajoling and perhaps force would be required here. I quietly closed all the windows.
In the next 45 minutes, the myth of the "tick fairy" was created. This particular fairy collects dead, blood swollen ticks and in return, gives little children gifts. What does she do with the dead ticks? She collects them in jars and juices them. This juice, in turn, powers her little fairy-mobile with which she delivers her presents.
While we improvised this rather disturbing story, my daughter looked at us with a face that more or less said, "Wow... that's completely messed up" but importantly, let us remove the tick.
The tick fairy brought her a little doll, that of course, was made in China.
NOTE: Daily post will be late.
Me, $2509 on 39,600 shares traded.
HPT, $2100 on 109 contracts traded.
Evolution, $343 on 10,000 shares traded.
OBAT, $180 on 5800 shares traded.
Denarii, $32 on 1000 shares traded.
Bubs, -$342 on 2600 shares traded.
Despite the fact that Maria Bartiromo must have said 10 times today... I'm sorry, must have shrieked 10 times today that the "smart money is buying the market here" the market dropped almost 200 points. Ah, Maria...
But, perhaps it's true. We really don't know. I mean, I don't have friends in high places like Ms. Bartiromo does, but I do have stock software. What that software shows over and over again, is that this market sells off in high volume. When it goes up, it goes up in light volume. That's not a sign of strength.
I guess there are lots of idiots out there selling this great market.
Anyway, the VO continues to show strength... the majority of traders in the VO keeps making money in the face of all this volatility. It's a traders market to be sure. I certainly don't want too much overnight risk.
We'll see what tomorrow brings. The headline risk to this market is gigantic.
NOTE: My daily post will be late tonight. For now, I'll bump my first post of the day, "The Tick Fairy."
I just did this comparison out of curiousity. I really want to go on vacation next week but I'm afraid oil is going to freak out. In the next few days this picture should become clearer.
Anything can happen at this point.
We wake up today and hear that the FED is doing "repo action" or something like that. I'm not an economist... I don't know what they're doing.
But take a look at the futures! You see that spike up? That's when CNBC reports that the FED "cancelled their repo action."
Everyone thinks, YAY! The FED doesn't see the need for more liquidity, everything must be "okay!"
Ah... but what about that spike down? That's 5 minutes later when CNBC says that the FED cancelled the "repo action" because of "technical difficulties" and that they'll be doing it, but just a little later.
Makes for an exciting morning.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Erin interviewed the CEO of Thornburg Mortgage on Kudlow and Company today.
As you can see from the above graph, TMA hasn't been on a hot streak lately. In fact, it looks like the company is blowing up. It was halted just before the market closed today and they came out and said that they'd be paying their dividend late in response to "significant disruptions in the mortgage market which resulted in the sudden and unprecedented decline in the market prices of its AAA-rated mortgage securities that began on August 9, 2007 and subsequent increase in margin calls related to its repurchase agreement financings on those securities."
Sounds great! Well, for whatever reason, the stock is bid up a dollar after hours. Perhaps everyone thought they were going to announce bankruptcy. The graph sure looks that way.
So Larry Goldstone, CEO was interviewed by Erin. I have to give her props, she asked him hard questions.
She asked him, "So, is Chapter 11 next?" No, he said... Chapter 11 doesn't solve our problem.
She said there were a bunch of rumors out there that mentioned they were going under. He said that "80% of the rumors are untrue." He continued, "We have been able to meet all of our obligations. We are navigating our way through this process."
Goldstone said that "companies are not funding their loans" and that we are in the midst of "a severe credit crisis."
Erin asked him if his lenders were "forcing them to liquidate" to which he replied in part, "They are making it difficult for us to rollover financing."
Perhaps the most important quote I took away from the interview was Goldstone stating that they "cannot finance mortgages using any of the vehicles they've used over the last 14 years."
Erin pressed, "So how can you continue as a going concern?" to which Goldstone replied, "We have been selling securities in our portfolio. If we had to sell all of our securities, even at these 'bear market prices' we'd still have $14.28. So we're coming back, we just have to rebuild."
Erin asked, "But what if there is no buyer? Then the value is zero!" to which Mr. Goldstone replied, "That's just not true. There are buyers of mortgages."
I'm not sure how the interview concluded, because I had to split. A friend with a boat, took us out to enjoy the good weather. The market could melt, but still, I'll take boat drinks.
TMA closed at $7.61. After hours it's trading up at $9.48. Not spectacular, but still, quite a bounce.
Perhaps it was my lack of sleep but today I just missed out on the volatility.
I mean, when the Dow is down 200 points, you expect to be able to find and execute some decent trades. Today, I saw a lot of choppiness and I just wasn't convinced that my positions would follow through for me.
So, I lightened up my position sizes and played defense.
I mean, really, you have to be playing offense in this market. You need to be aggressive with your positions if you want to make decent money. However, there are times when you may not be feeling it for whatever reason (like you slept in a tent in your daughter's playroom) and you just need to be smart about it. You can't force trades.
So here's my best stock of the day, TFX.
I got short at $74.25 and added all the way down to $73.50. I actually thought this trade would work out much better, but the stock ran into some buyers and I was forced to cover. I missed the second short of the day around noon because I was in full on defensive mode at that point. I stood by my rule of not trading between 12 and 2 today because I just saw lots of chop with little follow-through.
My worst trade of the day was in FED.
I was short when he decided to rally from 11 to 11:30. He basically tore my face off. Now, I'm short overnight. I fully expect to lose money in my overnight short. I am not allowed to make money in overnight trades. God won't allow it.
Anyway, these last 2 days of trading make me really want to take that vacation I've been planning on. However, Tropical Storm Dean may make that an impossibility. Not because I was planning on going to Puerto Rico or anything but because this hurricane could really mess with the price of oil.
We'll see. For now, I've updated the sidebar with a website that is tracking the storm's progress.
Here's the stats:
Best, TFX, $493
Worst, FED, -$543
shares traded, 24,800
19 stocks traded, 9 winners, 10 losers
NOTE: The CEO of TMA will be on CNBC soon. I'll post a synopsis... of sorts.
HPT, $500 on 26 contracts traded.
OBAT, $401 on 3600 shares traded.
Bubs, $304 on 1100 shares traded.
Me, $117 on 24,800 shares traded.
Denarii, no trades.
Misstrade, no trades.
Evolution, -$574 on 38,400 shares traded.
Well, volume was a little higher than the totals for yesterday, but still light compared to last week.
Bad news is still hitting this market. Today, Sentinel made a request to halt redemptions from it's fund. As I type, Thornburg Mortgage, TMA, is halted for trading due to pending news. Perhaps it's good news! HAHAHAH! Right. Anyway, it's tough out there...
It was a really wishy-washy day in the VO... no one really made or lost too much.
Let's see what tomorrow brings. Will the Dow hold 13,000? Will those who voted in my "poll" that the Dow would hit 12,500 before 14,000 "win?" We shall see.
NOTE: Meanwhile, if anyone subscribes to the WSJ online and wants to fill me in on the link made to my site from a comment made on this article I'd appreciate it. I'm not a subscriber... You can either email me or place a comment here. Thanks.
UPDATE: I just figured it out... The Wall Street Journal was probably just fishing for a link from my site. Pikers. Still, my request for information stands.
That's right. Trish Regan of CNBC just used the words "bank run" to describe what's going on in the credit markets.
Responsible financial journalism at its best.
Perhaps she should start yelling again...
Rumor has it that she also enjoys going to movie theaters and yelling "FIRE!"
First of all, I monitored the weather channel all day and didn't see one prediction for a thunderstorm.
Nonetheless, as we were setting up our tent, wondering about all the clouds, a thunderstorm, with lots of lightning cancelled our excursion.
In the end, we got home, wet, and pitched the tent in the playroom.
I didn't sleep well.
Monday, August 13, 2007
First of all, the day started out on a high note when I read that Karl Rove was resigning. I've dispatched an email to him to see if he'll guest blog while I'm on vacation, but so far I haven't heard from him. Surely, he is an avid reader of "Dinosaur Trader," so I'm hopeful.
Anyway, my take on today is that I was lulled to sleep early because of the "low volume" and thus, I fell into the trap of telling myself a "story" and took myself out of the game mentally. It pays to be mentally aggressive when trading... today I was not.
I started off getting smoked in my over-weekend short in TFX.
As you can see, it traded straight up 5 points. I was short 400 shares. Of course, I covered before $80, but still, it was unpleasant. Luckily, I stayed with this one and got short again in the $79s after it topped out. I ended up making all of my money back and then some, closing up $339 on the stock.
Another early trade was a long in CNS. I noticed on his daily graph that he was breaking above a downtrend line that I drew.
So, I bought and caught a nice 80-cent rip from $32.70 to $33.50.
On the downside, I screwed up BEN today... big time.
I started getting short around $124. My final cover of the day was up at $126.67... just before it collapsed. Frustrating. Luckily, I was trading it with only 200 shares at a time and thus limited huge damage. Still, losing almost $500 on a stock when you're trading with such small size means you messed up.
Besides that, I traded quietly today. I say that it felt slower than it was because there was a lot moving. I got stuck telling myself a "story" again, based on how I "felt" rather than looking at stocks "as they were." What I mean, simply, is that there were a lot of opportunities that I missed today because I lost my aggressive edge. I got lulled to sleep.
But take a look at any financial, at LZ, FLR or DSL and you'll see that many stocks had multiple-point ranges today. If you were awake, there were lots of trades to be made. If today meets the new definition of a "slow day" I'm happy to be trading.
Anyway, it's good to start the week with a gain especially since the day dawned on a down note. Happily, I have no overnight exposure and I can wake up tomorrow going into the market flat.
One word about tonight... I'm camping out on the beach to catch the tail end of the Perseid meteor shower. Camping with a toddler... this may end up working itself into a post.
Here's the stats:
Best, CNS, $366
Worst, BEN, -$490
shares traded, 14,000
11 stocks traded, 7 winners, 4 losers