Thursday, May 29, 2008

Arctic Monkeys, "I Bet That You Look Good On The Dancefloor"

From now on, if I'm "green" on the day, even on by $1, I'll allow myself to post good music. However, if I'm down, I'll post music I don't like, to punish myself.

This is a great song. The guy dancing is signing to it... pretty neat.

More Hope For The DT Fire

I made no money today, but nonetheless, it was a good day. I thought I showed a little growth in a couple of areas.

First of all, I made decent trades in HUM, ARD and had a good entry in BDC. While the trade ultimately worked, I wasn't involved for the run. He didn't make it easy.

Second, I really felt at the beginning of the day that I knew what I was going to look for, and what stocks I would be trading. So I had a bit of a plan.

Finally, I felt myself get angry with the MON trade and I just walked away instead of revenge trading.

So yeah, I'm still broke, and down on the month, but I'm searching for silver linings here. However, if I'm still at this point 8 years from now, wake me up from my trance and tell me to get a "real job." I mean, most people here on the Internets are like, "go get em buddy" and "you can do it" but everyone needs to face reality at some point.

So anyway, my best stock of the day was HUM. I bought 400 shares at $51.08 when it "broke out" at around 9:40. I was watching $51 on the daily... I don't think this was an HCPG pick, but I could be wrong. For now, I'll take credit. This was a pick from the highly secretive and sought after, "DT Watchlist."

It ran up on decent but by no means excellent volume. So I took a quick dime on 100 shares and 30 cents on another 100. So I had 200 left and ensured myself a winner. I moved my stop to $51 and watched. The stock ripped up to $51.85 but then had a nasty reversal. So I sold another 100 at $51.64.

You all know how I'm trying to work on holding my winners... since the stock had only gone up since my purchase, I decided to just put my last 100 shares at the buy point, $51 and try to wait it out. Well, the mofo came down to the fig and took me out. I thought it was a good idea even if I was stopped out. Again, it's uncanny to me how I often get stopped at the lows of moves, but that's just the way it's been going for months now... eventually, I'll get lucky.

This next trade was a bit of a heartbreaker for me... BDC $40. This has been on the watchlist for awhile. While HCPG hasn't discussed it recently, they put it on in early April I think, so I was still watching it.

It opened and was trading pretty poorly. It's really thin. So immediately, I knew I would be going with small size. After about a half hour of trade, it had chopped itself up to the $40 area and then chilled out for a few minutes. I bought on the break and was filled at $40.11. I wasn't thrilled with the fill, especially because the stock had an initial move up to $40.29 but then re-based, coming awfully close to my entry. The stock was so thin that I felt pretty sure that should it break $40, I would get an out below $39.90. I was nervous, even with my paltry 200 share position.

That nervousness caused me to fuck up a bit... because at 10:30 when the oil number came out, the market tanked and I sold 100 shares since I thought the general market weakness would bleed over into BDC. It didn't. The stock crept up to over $40.50 before reversing lower. By this time, I had moved my stop up to $40.25 and it was hit.

Meanwhile, the stock ultimately tested the $40 level and then ripped up to $41 on better volume. So I missed the bigger move.

My worst stock of the day was MON. With this guy, I was looking for a run to $126. He got there, but then reversed. I'm glad I walked away, because he never crested $126 like I felt he "surely would."

Anyway, so I only made $67, but I feel like I'm making progress. However, I need to sit down and come up with some realistic timelines for when I'll be forced to put this all to rest. Unless I get another bonanza August, or start making consistent (even if it's small) money, I'll be finding a new job by 2009.

I have a fancy "cocktail party" to attend this evening. As you can imagine, I'm not "good" at such events. Surely, I will say something awkward to offend some well-to-do female or get into some politically inspired debate with a powerbroker or something... in fact, as you read this, I am at the party... I'm just autoposting this shit.

Think a good thought for DT...

Here's the stats:
P&L, $67
Best, HUM,
Worst, MON,
3600 shares traded

6 stocks traded, 3 winners, 3 losers.

Virtual Office, $948. SPY, +0.84, $140.15.

Tokyo, $645 on 5009 shares traded.
Timmay, $105 on 600 shares traded.
OBAT, $88 on 5400 shares traded.
Me, $67 on 3600 shares traded.
Denarii, $21 on 8600 shares traded.
Tardo, nada.

Just take a look at the volume figures today for the VO. Surely times have changed when Denarii is the "big swinging dick" in terms of total volume traded. Meanwhile, Tokyo took a vacation from his vacation just to embarrass the rest of the VO with their inadequacy.

But hey, disparage the VO as a bunch of pikers, or whatever (fuck you if you do) but we've all been green for the last couple of days. I'm starting to feel that we've bottomed out. Naturally, that assessment is subject to change.

The market finished in the green on decent (1.2 billion... har, har) volume. However, that afternoon reversal is probably enough to give the bulls a little pause, especially with oil down nearly $5 on the day.

Oil was odd today... a huge drawdown and the price plummets... I didn't have CNBC on all day (perhaps why I'm in a good mood) but I imagine they were talking about "profit taking" and wondering whether "the top" has been made in crude.

Does anyone else find it really difficult to trade in the Spring? I just want to be outside. I'll have a daily post up later...

NOTE: Top dog in my real office today was up over $7,000.

Feeling Vengeful

So, I'm gonna walk away and enjoy the day. Just know this, MON will probably trade up today without me... I got in at $125.50, watched it run to $126 on huge volume and then got stopped out at $125.30 when it came back down.

So, I was pretty sure I was just getting fucked, so I bought back at $125.28 and then got stopped out again just below $125.

The whole thing made me kind of angry. I feel pretty confident that it's going over $126, but I guess I'll have to miss out on the bonanza.

I'll take my $200 and move on... I don't see too much else for me and I don't want to give all my money back today getting angry with MON.

Obama The "Magical Negro"

Here, the Daily Show, in their inimitable way, discusses possible VP candidates for Obama.