Monday, May 12, 2008

Pavement, "Perfume V"

A Good Trade

I'll have you know, I don't enjoy being the "trainwreck of the stock blogging Internets" day in and day out.

What other shithead is out there currently struggling like I am? Who has fallen as far as I have? The story doesn't end with me in the gutter, by the way. I figure this shit out and this little stretch is a blip I laugh about in 2016.

So tonight, I share a good trade I enjoyed today... I'll ignore the sad fact that I only had 200 shares on...

HCPG mentioned EXM in their weekend newsletter. This one has been showing up on their watchlist for the last couple of weeks. $47 was the number to watch. The stock gapped open, dropped a quick 80 cents or so, but then strongly bounced back to the highs.

I bought 200 shares up near the opening highs, which actually was a mistake. The stock was overextended, and needed time to digest the bounce. So it began to base. Now, what happened is that the stock headed back down to $46, where I had my stop and, assuming defeat, I gave up on the trade... I was pissed for buying before the stock based, and I walked downstairs to make myself a cup of tea. After last week, you understand, my confidence is at lows, and I almost expect every trade I enter to fail...

Of course, when I came back upstairs, only a few minutes later, I realized that I had just made myself a very expensive cup of tea. The stock vaulted through my buy point (actually providing me with a great chance to add to my position, which I was unable to do from the comfort of my kitchen while brewing tea) and straight to $47.

It's hard to add to a 200 share position... so I chose not to add any more at the breakout number. Instead, I threw in a sell limit, 1% above the breakout point. This number was easily taken out, so I added my second sell limit about a point higher from the breakout, at $47.90.

That was actually the high of the move. For about an hour, I was able to feel like a hero, selling at the high and all... problem is, the stock ran all day...

So, while my first trade worked out (even if I was a bit lucky) I left a lot of money on the table. The problem was not in selling... the problem was not watching the stock as it tested the original base that it emerged from. I could have had a nice, low-risk reentry down at $46.50... of course, this is a little 20/20 hindsight, but still... the stock was printing great volume... and was relatively strong. Other stocks in its sector were also strong... so, here is yet another aspect of trading that I need to work on, continuing to watch stocks that are behaving well even if I don't have a position for second opportunities.

Anyway, I was happy to finish green. I'm pissed I didn't have more shares, but after the carnage I suffered last week, it would have been somewhat irresponsible for me to trade heavy today. I need to up my win rate before I size up... it's frustrating, but true.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $190
Best, EXM, $222
Worst, MUR, -$45

2400 shares traded.
6 stocks traded, 3 winners, 3 losers.

Virtual Office, $148. SPY, +1.58, $140.46.

Me, $190 on 2400 shares traded.
OBAT, $10 on 3400 shares traded.
Tokyo, no trades.
Denarii, -$2 on 1400 shares traded.
Ainkurn, -$50 on 500 shares traded.

We just barely inched over the billion share traded mark today on the NYSE. Just for perspective, the last time we traded so little was on December 27th, Christmas week. Also, for fun, I checked the volume on this day last year... we traded 1.4 billion on May 11th last year (May 12 was a weekend).

So, about 40% less than a year ago... not great.

But who gives a fuck? I made money today, breaking my 5 day loss streak. I'll get into that all later, in my daily post as I describe how YOU TOO can make $200 a day in the market.

"How I Make $200 A Day In The Stock Market," by Dinosaur Trader... imagine how that would fly off the shelves of bookstores everywhere? It'd be an instant investment classic... fuck An American Hedge Fund. My book would be the "Catcher in the Rye" of the stock market world... while Mr. Sykes's book would collect dust.

Ah well... my real office clocked in at 50/50 winners to losers which, unfortunately, is also an improvement on last week. Still, perhaps it signals a better tone to trading this week, despite the volume.

Anyway, we know this market is in a weird place right now. How weird, we'll only know in a few months, when today is history.

Or instead, maybe things are just normal, and normal is boring.

Overemotional Wrestling Fan

Just to lighten things up a bit...

First of all, I'm green today, and staying that way. The streak is broken.

Second, I always find it hilarious when anyone gets too wrapped up in any particular hobby, movie, celebrity or whatever. Check this clip below... it's of a guy who is at an even with wrestlers from the WWF or something... he apparently, is a REALLY big fan.

Classic Clip - Wrestlings Biggest Loser - Watch more free videos

May Sucks

Not because of Mother's Day... although that doesn't help.

Mostly because every weekend we have some bullshit event to go to... Baptisms, Communions. Seriously, as an "atheistic Buddhist," I can only hurt these children's chances of ever getting to heaven. However, I'm not going to veer off into religion here. I have enough trouble with the trading and politics.

Guess what? Volume is tracking lower than even on Friday. Folks, the summer doldrums have arrived a few weeks early this year. Barring any beautiful event like a new subprime contagion, trading may well be over until October, or perhaps, even after the election.

In short, I'm doomed to poverty. Expect advertisements to grace this blog in some form or another in short order. The $11.83 I earn monthly from adsense will actually account for a fairly high percentage of our family income.

Ironic coming from a one-time millionaire, no?