Thursday, November 20, 2008
I'm driving into the big city tonight so that the RO can take me out to dinner and buy me drinks and women.
Needless to say, the RO report will be egregiously late.
Also, the RO kicked ass...
UPDATE: Okay, here we go. I'm tired and drunk, so no analysis. I'm in Trader P's empty apartment, another victim of the "housing crisis."
Out of 27 traders today, 18 were gross positive, or 67%. 14 traders made over $1,000 gross and 6 lost over $1,000 gross. I was #12 of 27, simply okay.
The Bosses came back in a big way today, really taking it to the Manservants in an uncomfortable, "non-lubricated" sort of way.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader D, $54,547 on 813k shares traded.
2. Trader B, $45,347 on 995k shares traded.
3. Trader E, $22,261 on 191k shares traded.
4. Trader C, $21,475 on 272k shares traded.
5. Trader P, $13,965 on 259k shares traded.
And the Manservants...
"Chambermaid" - Trader H*, -$14,747 on 8,400 shares traded.
2. Trader 10*, -$2,358 on 8,400 shares traded.
3. Trader J, -$2,219 on 183k shares traded.
4. Trader 6*, -$1,555 on 0 shares traded.
5. Trader 3, -$1,176 on 14,400 shares traded.
I'll be trading from the physical RO tomorrow. I haven't traded in the big city for years. I haven't traded next to real people for years. I'm almost sure that means I'll get really smoked. Still, I'm looking forward to it.
As I puzzled over the cost of the dinner tonight, "Trader B" told me I need to stop thinking about money. Make a lot, spend a lot, lose a lot. If you're going to be a good trader, there's something to that...
The market can make you feel dirty. It's fucking awful out there today. Guys have had massive swings and if you haven't covered at perfect times, you're getting stomped.
When the market makes me feel bad, I now turn to the Neti-Pot. See below.
Sure it looks funny, but it'll clear your head out like nothing else. And sometimes, that's what you need to trade right.
UPDATE: Here's more info.
One of the signs of a bottom according to the IBD is when you start seeing bears on the covers of major news magazines. When the national media (not just CNBC and other 24-hour "news" outlets) become obsessed with the bear and the bottom, the fog will soon clear. So it actually made me feel pretty good this morning to read this article in The Times, that seemed to suggest we were screwed beyond repair.
Below is an excerpt.
But it was financial stocks that bore the brunt of the selling, and, for many analysts, seem the most worrisome. Financial shares are plunging far below the levels plumbed in October, when panic gripped the markets. On Wednesday, Citigroup, the hobbled financial giant, plunged 23.4 percent to a mere $6.40 in an avalanche of sell orders. Once the most valuable financial company in America, Citigroup is now worth less than U.S. Bancorp.Another newer sign that Mr. O'Neill and his group might be interested in, is the bearish commentary left on blogs. If you read "the Fly's" blog, you might have noticed that the "head bear" in the comment section, "DevilDog," has been particularly triumphant lately, explaining that he has the perspective of real pain, and therefore knows that we're screwed beyond belief and that this time it's different and that we're never going to bounce and that America is dead forever.
Big banks like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo & — all of which, like Citigroup, have received billions of dollars from the government — fell more than 10 percent.
Goldman Sachs, the former employer of Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary, sank to its lowest level since it went public in 1999. Analysts predicted that Goldman, the most profitable bank in Wall Street history, would suffer its first loss as a public company.
Even Warren E. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, which owns the Geico Corporation and recently invested in Goldman Sachs, fell 12 percent, its steepest decline in more than two decades. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 427.47 points or 5.07 percent, at 7,997.28. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index closed down 6.12 percent or 52.54 points at 806.58 while the technology-heavy Nasdaq ended down 6.53 percent at 1,386.42.
But even as markets tumbled, analysts saw few signs of capitulation, that final burst of panicked selling that typically marks a market bottom. If anything, Wednesday’s new lows are a sign that Wall Street has farther to fall.
I agree, in many ways we are "fuckified," but these bears assume fear is stronger than greed. It's not. The two are equal and they're what make the market work.
Remember the idiots in 2000 who were saying silly things like "Dow 30,000!" in just a few years? Well, they're cut from the same cloth as the idiots who are now saying Dow 4000 until 2040.
Greed just won't let that happen. This is short-term myopia. The market has been around for hundreds of years and human psychology hasn't changed much since then... why should it now?
And of course, the fact that once again I considered buying a gun and storing grains and water in my basement mean sometime in the next couple of days there's gonna be a massive spike. Hopefully, this time it will hold.
Anyway, the scariest outcome from a trading and investing perspective is what reader "Jawbone" mentioned last night in my comment section. That we could have an "L-shaped" bottom, whereas we decline and just stay there for an extended period of time. That truly scares me, because it would make trading nearly impossible on a short-term basis.
Anyway, for now, I'll take a bet that this time is bad, but no different from past panics we've had, because greed will soon rear its beautiful head again.
NOTE: However, shit like this gives me pause...