Friday, November 21, 2008

The Congos, "Fisherman"

The RO Report, "That's Not The Bottom" Edition

Call it the "Obama rally," or, more specifically, the "Geithner rally" since it began when word was leaked that Obama had chosen him as Treasury Secretary. 500 Dow points when you're in the mid 7000s is nothing to ignore... that's a substantial rally.

Depending on what happens with Citigroup over the weekend this rally could have turkey legs.

It would be nice, but I'd be seriously surprised.

I just wanted to relay the topic of a conversation I was having with "Trader P" last night... how hard it is to be satisfied with your job performance as a trader. If you do well, someone has done better, or you let a good trade go too soon. If you do poorly, you just feel like shit no matter what. Really, the only way to feel good, is to be the "Lucky Pierre" day in and day out. Easier said than done.

Anyway, after my 4am drive home from the city last night, I'm shot. The RO did well that last hour and the Bosses finished out the week on top. I'm just getting straight to the numbers.

Out of 24 traders today, 20 were gross positive, or 83%, a nice number. Better yet, 16 traders finished over $1,000 gross, while only 2 traders lost over $1,000 gross. I was #7 of 24, good for no sleep, but man did I mook out of that last move...

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader B, $53,371 on 770k shares traded.

2. Trader A, $41,601 on 908k shares traded.
3. Trader Z, $21,078 on 391k shares traded.
4. Trader F, $12,822 on 192k shares traded.
5. Trader J, $12,746 on 156k shares traded.

And the Manservants...

"Chambermaid" - Trader C, -$6,425 on 222k shares traded.

2. Trader E, -$3,659 on 266k shares traded.
3. Trader 8, -$626 on 8,600 shares traded.
4. Trader 9*, -$231 on 4,400 shares traded.
5. Trader K, $45 on 1,000 shares traded.

Where's The Bottom?

Simple enough. Let's see what you people think.

1. 7500
2. 7250
3. 7000
4. 6750
5. 6500
6. 6250
7. sub 6000

Do The Regionals Benefit?

With the largest US Bank looking very much like it's going under, I was wondering where all those deposits will go. As an investor in HCBK, I'm hoping there. But do you think that other smaller banks will benefit?

It's going to be a scary weekend if C goes under. Look for a press release to be put out before Asian markets open Sunday night. I wanted to take off next week, but just can't with the markets at their lows. Like I said a couple of days ago, we're gonna get one of those monster short-squeezes soon and I want to be massively long for it when it comes.

Also, this weekend I'll work on a post to describe my evening last night. I dined with Traders B, D, E, K, N, P, and Z. I'm hoping to begin a series of interviews with each trader in the office. Developing...

Clusterfuck To The Poor House - The Auto Industry

On point as always, The Daily Show has their way with the auto mess...

Also, speaking of being poor, "the Fly" has a wistful post on bok choy.