Probably my favorite song from the Beatles.
Friday, August 17, 2007
Probably my favorite song from the Beatles.
I took it really easy today. So easy in fact, that I don't have too much to report here.
I was long 200 (UBB) overnight. It gapped up 7 points. I sold in the high $104s.
Problem was that I started to buy it back at around $99. It wanted to go down to $96. I lost about half of my gains getting in and out as it dropped those 3 points. What's worse however, is that I had about 800 shares again from around $96.20 and sold out at $96.50.
I was conditioned by all of my bad trades in the stock to think he was going lower again and I just sold when I had a quick profit. Basically, he ran up the rest of the day as you can see. That really pissed me off. However, instead of getting all vengeful and chasing it I let it go and walked away from trading for a couple of hours.
Before I took off though I got short some (MOS) and rode it down for a decent profit.
I didn't trade at all between 11:00 and 3pm. I just chilled, added some features to the blog and watched the idiots on CNBC.
At 3pm, I noticed that (MLM) looked like it might pop out of the base it had been forming all day.
It didn't make it... however, that didn't stop me from believing that it WOULD make it eventually... this was stupid and it led to my worse loss on the day as I stubbornly held expecting the stock to bust higher.
Anyway, thanks all for reading along this week. It's been lots of fun. Unfortunately, I had to cancel my vacation for next week because of all the volatility. I'm keeping a close eye on Hurricane Dean and the oil stocks for next week. If nothing develops there, it may be vacation time until after Labor Day. I'll keep you posted.
Here's the stats:
Best, UBB, $593
Worst, MLM, -$621
shares traded, 39,000
23 stocks traded, 16 winners, 7 losers
NOTE: Be sure to check out the new "Feed" options I have placed on the blog and let me know what you think.
Me, $2667 on 37,000 shares traded.
HPT, $1000 on 84 contracts.
Evolution, $632 on 13,500 shares traded.
Bubs, no trades.
Misstrade, no stock trades.
OBAT, -$315 on 3400 shares traded.
Well, for a summer Friday this one was fairly wild. The FED cut the discount window rate by 50 basis points and put at least a short term bottom into the market.
After we spiked up in the morning we lost half the gains in the futures and then basically got them all back by the close.
On tap for Monday is a greater understanding of how Hurricane Dean is going to effect this market, if at all.
Have a great weekend everyone. Enjoy the perfect weather on the East Coast. If you go into the water, watch out for the sharks.
Watch how he rips our friend Erin Burnett apart at the end. Note too that I highlighted her stupidity in this post a few days before it got to the Daily Show.
Mr. Stewart? Please... if you're reading I would much rather write some good, ass-kicking comedy than trade. Just don't plagiarize me or I'll sue you. Shoot me an email.
NOTE: Screw Maria and her Junior Park Ranger pin....
UPDATE: Subaru has responded to this post, so I've bumped it. See their response in the comments section. I still say the ads suck and are misleading. However, I give them props for stopping the "Dinosaur Trader public relations nightmare blitzkreig" from having a chance to develop.
I've been waiting to find this damn commercial on Youtube for awhile. They play it over and over again on CNBC.
A guy, with a little stubble, wearing "natural fiber" clothing standing among trees talking about how nice Subaru is to the environment. Ah yes! The air is so crisp and clean at the Subaru auto plant! LOL!
Here's the real deal.
If Subaru is so damned friendly to the environment, why did they raise the clearance of the Outback so that it could be classified as a small truck? Was it to help the little bunnies, deer and trees at their "environmentally friendly plant" in Indiana?
Nope. It was to exploit a loophole that would allow the Outback to get WORSE FUEL ECONOMY.
Now, if you totalled the extra carbon emitted from the millions of the very popular Outbacks on the road today that now get fewer miles per gallon due to the exploitation of this loophole, I'd venture a guess that it dwarfs the carbon saved from their little "green plant" in Indiana that they tout so highly.
So to Subaru I say, "Fuck you!" for lying to the consumers.
To you, the consumer, I say, beware "greenwash" and let Subaru know that they aren't duping you.
Hey, I don't know a damn thing about feeds, I'll admit it. However, after watching today's Wallstrip, I was inspired to set up a blog feed since I thought the Sphere idea was very interesting.
So now there is a little link along the right sidebar where you can subscribe to the Dinosaur Trader "feed."
If this has caused problems for people who were subscribed in some other way, let me know. I'm just trying out some new stuff here.
NOTE: Meanwhile, let me know if the site is acting funny or anything.
I'm never really good at morning gap-ups so I've been taking it easy.
However, I still managed to make a bunch of good trades mostly on the short side. I caught nice shorts in both MOS and AGU.
One exception was a gap-up long in UBB. I had 200 shares and watched it gap close to 7 points. I took profits but then gave half back trying to buy it again. I just missed catching a really great long in it but I sold for no good reason in the $96s... that's when I decided it was time to step away.
Anyway, there was loads of opportunity out there. If you're into short scalping, as "Streetsmack" over at Wallstreak is, then this has been your type of day.
For me, I'm a little mentally exhausted from yesterday. For now, I'm taking my nice gains on the day and chilling out until further notice. If my buddy is able to hit the water again, I'll be doing that this afternoon instead of trading. We'll see.
I'll leave the "Rs" to Prospectus and Richard today...
Meanwhile, "the Fly" has a bunch of speculative hurricane plays... that is, if you feel Hurricane Dean will "mushroom cloud" the Gulf Coast, as he apparently does.
Anyway, I can't answer them all because it's going to be another very busy morning but I just wanted to say thanks.
It made a nice day even better.
Anyway, so I found a nice punk cover of "Wind Beneath My Wings" that features an animation of an evil Bette Midler for you.
I mean, this would have been nicer if we had a chance to get long on the day first!
Anyway, the futures went from being down to shooting higher. Check the 5-minute.
The Dow is set to open up over 250 points.
This may make trading very difficult today. I mean, we'll just have to see how stocks open. My only overnight long is 200 shares of UBB. Sigh...
Great waves this morning.
UPDATE: Art Cashin (one of the only voices of reason) on CNBC has this to say about the rate cut and the ensuing market action.
"It's a massive short-covering rally. It's unusual that they chose to cut the "discount window rate" instead of the Fed Funds rate but they're saying, 'look we're on top of this' and it shows they may do more down the road. Meanwhile, Art says that the Yen is still critical and that he's watching it closely.
When asked by Joe Kernan, Art said an "intermediate term low" was reached in the market yesterday but said he didn't think it was the final capitulation.