Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Your Morning Propaganda Alert

"It has now been more than ten days since the New York Times exposed the Pentagon's domestic propaganda program involving retired generals and, still, not a single major news network has even mentioned the story to their viewers, let alone responded to the numerous questions surrounding their own behavior. This steadfast blackout occurs despite the fact that the Pentagon propaganda program almost certainly violates numerous federal laws; both Democratic presidential candidates sternly denounced the Pentagon's conduct; and Congressional inquiries are already underway, all of which forced the Pentagon to announce that it suspended its program."

Continue reading...

Los Campesinos, "We Throw Parties, You Throw Knives"

Some Thoughts On April And Moving Forward

I'm not really a guy who looks back on my earnings trends with any kind of regularity. Actually, I normally only check my "sheets" when I think an error has been made.

But tonight, since I barely traded today, I thought I would take the time to look back on the year and attempt to set a couple of goals for May.

Trading is about making money, yes, but I also am the head of a household here, so I need to think about my sanity. So, what kind of win/loss ratio would make me enjoy this job? Ideally, something like 90%. But, that's a little out of reach right now (I'm talking on a daily P&L basis).

In April, I was positive 68% of the time, roughly 2 out of every 3 days traded. That's okay. For May, I'm going to do something unprecedented for myself and set a GOAL. I'm going to shoot for a 75% win rate, that is, be positive 3 out of every 4 days traded.

Another thing I realized about April is that I had a couple of blowup days. You'll recall that one day, I lost $1889. That was awful. In the last two months, since I started trying a new way of trading, I'm averaging about $200 a day... so I wiped out about 10 days of work with that there blowup... frigging awful.

Since I'm not trading nearly as much as I used to, and definitely with less emotion and spontaneity, I'm going to set myself a daily loss limit of $600. And I'm really going to try hard to stick to it... without any large blowups, my monthly P&L should improve.

Finally, I've averaged $200 a day with this new system trading in lots of 200 shares mostly. I'm going to try and average $300 a day in May and up my share size again. There are 21 trading days in May, so I'll just say my goal is to make $6000 for the month. That may be somewhat ambitious given the Memorial Day holiday, but we'll see.

I'm rebuilding. Honestly, I didn't think it would be so hard, but apparently, it's a slow process.

Finally, I'm still trying to reconcile how to deal with events like the S&P upgrade of Brazil today. I want to be in on those trades. Today, I missed the news, so I can't fault myself too much. The way I'm trading now, basing daytrades on daily chart price action coupled with intraday setups is a great way to trade day in and day out, but it will almost always miss the odd event. For as long as I've been trading, the "odd event," be it the California power crisis or the subprime news of last August, has been a reason to trade aggressively.

So ultimately, I want to keep my daily sanity by trading methodically, making the game profitable and boring, but leaving the door open to insanity... that is, not be too strict with myself that I don't jump on opportunity when the market is screaming. I'm still working on this...

Virtual Office, $5026. SPY, -0.63, $138.47.

Sanglucci, $4100 on 38,400 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $550 on 150 shares traded.
OBAT, $334 on 10,400 shares traded.
Me, $124 on 2400 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Denarii, -$82 on 4800 shares traded.

Well, apparently "cake city" is somewhere in Brazil.

If you're a prop trader and managed to hear the news about Brazil getting upgraded by S&P to "investment grade" status when it came out, you probably made A LOT of money.

That is, unless you got all smart and tried to fade the move... (Note: As I wrote this, UBB dropped 6 points from its high, so there was money made fading as well...)

Sanglucci, current "cake king" around here, is learning Portuguese and moving to Rio de Janeiro. Congrats, Sanglucci. But let's not overlook our boy down south, Ainkurn. He says FSLR is his "bitch." He's thinking of upgrading and moving to Jackson, MS.

Ah, to be young and trading in the spring...

Anyway, the FED cut 25 basis points. The market rallied hard on the news and then reversed, all on mediocre volume. I'm always happy when these days come and go. I really don't like news driven markets... makes me feel dependent.

Just give me graphs.

FED Cuts Another Quarter Point

The initial reaction was bullish. But these things often reverse.


The Daily Show "Does" Scalia...

Pretty much from 1:59 on is the reason why I love the Daily Show. Fucking perfect.

Taking A Bike Ride

It's a nice day, so I'm heading out to take a bike ride. No reason for me to fuck around pre-FED during lunch hour.


Biker Gets Hit By Speeding Car - Watch more free videos

I've made a couple of trades and I'm up $200. No matter what, given that it's the last day of the month, I won't go negative. So I may just be done for the day.

FOMC Meeting Day

I'm gonna be taking it very easy today. I figure it's a good day to surf the web until the FED, in all its bearded wisdom, throws us a bone. So here's some reading.

  • Take a look at that sea of plastic bottles... seriously, that shit's not going away. (h/t Wallstreet Fighter)
  • Mrs. Edwards has my vote. I agree 100% with this OpEd piece.
  • Iran says "fuck Barbie," but not literally, because that would be against the Koran.
  • I hate the war and I hate its architects, but it must completely suck to be over there. Last week, a kid from my town was killed by a roadside bomb. That shit ain't right. Send the troops some support, because they're not to blame for our government's bad policy.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Fleet Foxes, "English House"

Spend the $5 and go pick up this band's EP on iTunes. If you like 60s era rock, (think Crosby Stills and Nash), you should like this.

Virtual Office, -$704. SPY, -.55, $138.95.

Me, $250 on 6600 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $136 on 700 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Denarii, -$1 on 2600 shares traded.
OBAT, -$59 on 11,400 shares traded.
Timmay, -$265 on 500 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$765 on 23,400 shares traded.


So I only traded the first hour today. No color for you.

However, I'd just like to note that it seems "the Fly" effectively sold the bottom on his SMN. The ag stocks, recent darlings of the stock market, have been beaten down like Barack Obama getting beaten by Reverend Wright. And thus, SMN is rising faster than yeast. Fuck yeah! Yeast!

It's ugly and most likely, getting uglier.

I'm looking forward to getting tomorrow out of the way. May the FED, in all it's bearded wisdom free the market from these low volume doldrums.

Back to your regularly scheduled posting tomorrow.

Oh, and one last thing... may the Pittsburgh Penguins defeat the children of Satan, also known as The Rangers.

Vacation! Not Really....

I need to take a half day to attend to some "family business." I'm up $250. I will have the VO up later this evening. Enjoy trading.

Monday, April 28, 2008

Pulp, "Pencil Skirt"

If women "breast painting" bothers you, then don't watch this video. Great lyrics. The whole album is excellent, really...

Better Than It Looks

Longtime readers will notice that I'm trading far less shares, and that I'm trading fewer stocks, as well. This is all by design. I'm slowly gaining more confidence with this new style of trading (for me, anyway) and as I gain more, I will start upping my share size. Today, I had a good confidence day, even though I only pulled $245 out of the market.

Why? Well, because I'm starting to see trades correctly. My first trade of the day, in ARD, was well thought out and I even showed some patience. I was watching the $48 level on the daily graph. The stock opened and ripped right above the level. Instead of chasing, and getting caught in a nasty pullback, I waited and bid for the stock back down near the $48 level. I figured, if I got the shares, it was a low risk play, since I was going to stop just below $48. And if I didn't get the shares, I'd move on.



As you can see, I got the shares, and screwed up my exits. But I still like the trade because it shows I'm thinking right, even though I need to let my winners run.

My next trade was also okay, even though, once again, I didn't hold for the full move. I was watching NUE $76.50 on the daily, and liked it even more, since NUE was showing a little relative strength compared to the rest of the metals early today.



Then I dabbled in PCU for awhile, took some small losses and then made them back by finally catching the short I was looking for, down to the $116 level. This stock was showing good relative weakness for a short. He's just a dick...



Anyway, I haven't even gone over my best trades today... short BGC, long TEX and short AGU, but I'm doing a sunrise surf session (which now means 5:30am so I can get back to the desk by 8:45) and I need to get to bed.

I expect the market to be dead until after the FED decision on Wednesday, and will continue to trade tight and light until then. Also, looks like I'll be trading a half day tomorrow.

Here's the stats:

P&L,
$245
Best, BGC,
$161
Worst, RSG,
-$37

9 stocks traded, 5 winners for $328, 4 losers for -$83.
6400 shares traded.

Virtual Office, $1766. SPY, +.01, 139.61.

Sanglucci, $1601 on 46,200 shares traded.
Me, $245 on 6400 shares traded.
Timmay, $135 on 1000 shares traded.
Denarii, $104 on 400 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Dehtrader, vacation.
Ainkurn, -$120 on 500 shares traded.
OBAT, -$199 on 7000 shares traded.


Well, it was another low volume chopfest in the major indexes today. Today, it took until 3:50 to trade 1 billion shares on the NYSE... that's like a bad volume day back when I first began trading, in 1999...

At this pace, in mid August, we'll be trading 750 million shares a day on the NYSE. And NYX should be trading in the mid 40s... time will tell.

Anyway, after the close and into tomorrow morning there are a number of interesting companies reporting earnings, including V, MA, X, VLO and AG. Hopefully, this will give the market some "juice," however, I doubt it will. The big day (which too, I expect to be anticlimactic) will be Wednesday, when the FED, in all its bearded wisdom, releases its most recent policy statement.

Until then, I expect traders to keep their heads low. Be careful out there...

Oh, and someone is posting on Evolution's blog, although it doesn't seem to be him... the plot thickens.

Painful Fall

You couldn't give me enough money to do this... meanwhile, before the kid jumps, he says "this is for Burt's Bees." Is he talking about the chapstick maker? I mean, my wife uses that shit... I can't imagine this kid selling chapstick.


Crazy Kid Leaps Down Staircase - Watch more free videos

Blogroll Update

I've added a few new blogs to my blogroll and deleted a couple of others that have gone dormant. I try to keep the blogroll current, so if a blog I read stops updating, I'll remove it and add fresh blood.

First, here are the new blogs:

OONR7 This is a very informative blog with nice graphs and descriptions of trades. He also viciously attacked Jake Gint in my comment section... always a plus.

Dogwood Again, a nice blog with discussion of stocks and other random stuff. Also, I like Dogwood trees... and, he did a whole post about my trades... always a plus.

The removed blogs... mdawsz's old blog... Get Short! He turned this shit to invite only and had the audacity to not invite me. I'd link it, but you'll just get a page that says you're not invited... making you feel like a dick. He teased a few weeks ago about launching a new blog. When this happens, he will be reinstated.

Trade Like Mike... dude got a real job and has gone on permanent hiatus. If he follows through to turn this into a humor blog, it will be reinstated onto the blogroll... that is, if it's funny.

NOTE: Here's my Peanut Gallery post explaining the "work" I'll be doing for IBC during their election...

An Extraordinary Place, Dubai...

I found this incredible post about the growth of Dubai. I mean, the pictures were so amazing and the buildings so tall, that halfway through I started to think it was a big sarcastic joke... but it's not.

Sunday, April 27, 2008

DT Wins Again!

I'm fucking rich! And famous!

"The Fly" is paying me A LOT of "dirty Internet money" to "live blog" his elections this May 6th.

This will perhaps be the biggest event ever on the Internets... think 2 girls one cup, but looser.

Since I will be "live blogging" for 8 straight hours, I will be drinking plenty of Powerthirst. After I blog there, I will go light buildings on fire and win at "art."

Friday, April 25, 2008

Dark & Stormy

Okay, so yesterday when I was complaining about my neighbor's dog, Bluedog wrote in and told me to drink a Dark & Stormy and that I'd forget about the dog.

Well I'm on my third Dark & Stormy and that fucking mutt is still out there, barking like a fucking seal. I'm gonna kill it with my bare hands and a log. Ultimate Warrior style...

As for the Dark & Stormy, it's a good drink, but a little sweet for my taste. I mean, that hasn't stopped me from having a few. Still, in the summer, I suggest some Pernod with seltzer.

The Velvet Underground, "I'm Waiting For The Man"

Virtual Office, $1058. SPY, +1.37, 139.68.

Sanglucci, $1163 on 55,800 shares traded.
Denarii, $117 on 5600 shares traded.
OBAT, $112 on 6000 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Ainkurn, -$21 on 600 shares traded.
Me, -$313 on 13,200 shares traded.


I should have taken today off. The day started at 6:15 when my neighbor decided it was a good idea to start powerwashing his house... powerwashers aren't quiet... And it basically ended with Maria asking John fucking Travolta if... and this is a direct quote, he's "feeling the impact of the financial slowdown."

HAHAHAHAH! He could hardly suppress his laughter. Thank you, once again Maria Bartiromo, for being a beacon of light in the darkness that is financial journalism.

Today was a dicey day to trade. Even the guys from Mississippi were saying it was slow... always a disturbing sign. Some guys in my office made really good money, with the top dog comfortably over 5gs. But half the guys in the office were in the red too, so it wasn't exactly easy. On most days when it's good to trade, 80% of the office is green. I've done studies.

Anyway, as you might imagine, I was disappointed with my own performance. I hate red Fridays. At least the "pirate hooker" Sanglucci made back his losses from yesterday. Well done, ya hooker.

Tonight I will not have a daily post up, as I have a dinner and ice cream date with a certain 3 year old. Judy is going to a dance performance. I hate dance.

Racism Friday!

Since the NYPD was acquitted for shooting some innocent dude 50 times or so, racial tensions will be running high in the city for some time. I thought I'd fan the flames a bit with this gem from the british show, "Balls of Steel."


Balls Of Steel Militant Black Guy - Watch more free videos

Frank Black, "Czar"

Having a hard time getting started today... so how about a song? Play it loud.



UPDATE: Okay, if you want to do some good reading, go check out MWF's racy "history" posts over at The Trading Fraternity. These are nothing like my, PG rated, history posts. He's got crime, sex with fat chicks, lying, cheating... in other words, lots of fun.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

The Lemonheads, "Mrs. Robinson"

Score One For "Old DT"

(long, rambling, not properly edited post alert!)

So I've spoken in the last couple of months about the trader that I used to be versus the trader that I want to become. But just in case, for whatever reason, you somehow overlooked what's happening here, I'll briefly summarize.

"Old DT" was the DT of the last 9 years. I was a very aggressive prop trader, taking whatever the market would give me, whenever it would give it to me. My game was mostly one of managing risk and hoping for gains. And it worked, quite well, for a very long time. Even last year, my worst year, I averaged about ten grand a month. However, once I dug a little deeper into my year, I realized that more than half of my gains came within only a few weeks in August. For the rest of the year I was mostly churning, making a little money, and getting very frustrated.

I blamed the hybrid market for much of my trading distress and I think that's fair... the mechanics of the market completely changed and so adjustments were necessary. However, I was slow to change and I haven't really been able to adapt. In addition, with all the new NYSE fees, my commissions went up drastically. So why fight it? Why trade a billion shares a day when my margins have been squeezed?

I figured it was time for a real shift in my style. That whole process took about a year. I'm just too old to want to fight the market and adapt to its new focus on super-speed. I like making a little money each day... that I can handle. I don't like having the drawdowns. That was something I never had to deal with pre-hybrid with any kind of regularity.

I know some new traders who love the hybrid... but for the guys who learned trading with "teenies" and "bids stepping up" it's been difficult. Many "old school" traders have struggled with the changes.

Anyway (this post is already way too long) the thing is, today was just one of those days where it paid to take extra risk and not necessarily wait for perfect setups. Sure, they were out there, but it was a day to trade sector momentum. When whole sectors trade in lockstep, irrationally, as the agriculture and fertilizer stocks did today, it sometimes pays to just jump in and get dirty.

So my best trades today were catching the bottoms in CF and MOS. I made a few points in each. Now, since I don't trade like this anymore, I only had a couple hundred shares of each. So my feeling is, on days where there is wild shit happening, I still have to throw down "old DT" style with smaller size. For the rest of the time, I'm going to stick to the calmer, more calculating, "new DT."

The problem with the "old DT" trades is that there's not much to discuss... it's more a "feel" game. CF "felt" overdone this morning when he bladed down below $136... there was no setup. It was a matter of playing a change in momentum... of sellers getting exhausted and bottom pickers moving in.

So I'll just discuss one "new DT" trade that I took in GS. This was an HCPG watchlist play. They were looking for a run to the $185 level.



As you can see, the stock based a bit around $182.50 and broke out. I didn't get involved because there wasn't good volume trading. However, once he moved over $183, volume came in, so I bid and hoped for a pullback. The guy came in, just under $183 and then ripped for the rest of the day. So here there was a plan, based on the daily chart in conjunction with the intraday, that worked out. Very specific, very controlled.

So I have this love/hate relationship with the "old DT." Last Thursday, for example, "old DT" lost $1400 trying to catch a top in CLF. The difference is that last Thursday there was no "juice" in the market, and CLF was acting completely different from the rest of the metals. So what I need to do, is pick my spots better for when "old DT" is gonna come trade. The "new DT" is gonna trade every day, and try to get the consistency back. With the consistency (which is already improving drastically... I've had 11 green days this month, and 6 down days) will come confidence. Then I'll start throwing size into my trades again.

Rambling, I know, but I'm not going back to edit that shit. Apologies...

In other news, the summer people are already starting to show here. My "neighbor" (he hasn't been in his house since last August) showed up today with his goddamn dog. It's out there barking right now. I hate dogs. But really, I hate owners who let their dogs out in their yard to bark all night.

If any of you happen to have a dog, and you leave it outside at night, and it barks, just let me know what that's all about, so I can better understand my neighbor. Perhaps if I understand why people do that, I'll hate him less and not shoot his dog.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $932
Best, CF, $665
Worst, BG, -$96

14,600 shares traded.
11 stocks traded, 6 winners, 5 losers.

NOTE: I just went through and realize that I've had 3 big down days this month that account for about $4000 in losses. I've only had one day where I was down over $500 and came back... so maybe I should really just stick to a -$500 daily loss limit. If I'm having a good day, it normally starts good right away.

Virtual Office, -$135. SPY, +0.78, 138.50.

Me, $925 on 13,800 shares traded.
OBAT, $520 on 12,600 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Ainkurn, vacation.
Dehtrader, vacation.
Denarii, -$287 on 2800 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$1300 on 44,600 shares traded.


Here, let me sum up the last 3 weeks of trade.

Fertilizers.

The ag names were ridiculous again today... the oil stocks were dropping out of the sky. There seems to be some sector rotation going on. People like the financial stocks again... they hate anything related to basic materials.

All in all, if you're a trader, these are the days you live for. Of course, it helps when you're on top of your game. Because where there's opportunity to make a lot of money, there's also opportunity to get smoked.

I was trading 100 and 200 shares lots all day... because I'm still mindfucked with no confidence. If you were a confident trader today, you could have made tens of thousands... the opportunity and movement is there right now. It's all about being able to manage risk... always the tricky part.

Anyway, I have to say, it's tough to trade when Spring is outside, calling for me. But you know, Spring will always be there... these moves in the stock market will not. As for seasonality in the world of stocks, a lot of people will be saying "sell in May, go away... blah, blah" but don't forget what happened last August. Simply put, the market is a weird and fucked up place right now, and what's typical doesn't seem to be on the plate.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get surprised... or something, by the market over the summer.

Oh... and we traded over 1.4 billion today... could it be, that volume is going to return?

The Market Is Fucked Up And Weird

Remember the volatility mascot? Well, forget about all that. The market is no longer volatile, it's just fucked up. So please welcome our new mascot of "the market is fucked up and weird."

That's a little wordy... suggestions welcome.

Sheer Lunacy



The moves in the ag names today have been nothing short of insane. Lots of prop traders are cashing in... lots of prop traders taking pain.

Which side are you on?

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

The Orb, "Oxbow Lakes"

Virtual Office, -$66. SPY, -.22, $137.78.

Sanglucci, $722 on 51,200 shares traded.
Me, $659 on 7400 shares traded.
OBAT, $215 on 6800 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $128 on 400 shares traded.
Denarii, $3 on 6008 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Dehtrader, -$1793 on 2450 shares traded.


There were ridiculous moves in stocks today... again, the agriculture names, (specifically LNN, CF and POT) and the coal stocks were nuts. Oh, and the metals had their fun as well.

In this type of environment, traders should be stacking cheese. But the VO has been somewhat cursed of late. We haven't had any big gains in awhile. Hopefully, this will soon change.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the VO has gone all lame with the complete lack of volume that April has provided. I know I sound like a broken record, but it's just not normal. My only explanation is that volume must be shifting away from the NYSE. I guess since hybrid market inception the stock is down 40% or so... coincidence? I think not. They lost their niche.

The NYSE is nothing but an ECN now, and it's really sad.

I haven't posted any freaky hybrid trades in awhile, but check out the open on EDU or FCL today. Shit like that freaks traders out...

Anyway, enough about that. More dinner guests, so no daily post. I caught some LNN on the bounce and short BG off $120 resistance. Those were my best trades of the day. I had wonderful entries on many other trades, namely CF and AGU longs at around 10:00am, but only with small size. The best news, was that my biggest loser was $15.

Hillary is a pirate hooker. As is Sanglucci... top man again.

Where's Evolution???

Ali Velshi... Really, Really, Annoying

I know... it's odd that I'm not complaining about a CNBC anchor. But Dinosaur Trader blog is always looking for new opportunities to mock "news personalities" and Ali Velshi, the CNN "money honey," needs to catch some heat.



I mean, if I turn on CNN and I see that dude's shiny head and stylish eyewear, I immediately have to change the channel. Dennis Kneale is an idiot, no one would argue otherwise, but at least he knows he's an idiot.

This Velshi guy thinks he's the bee's knees...

Poop

What is it with 3 year olds and the word "poop?"

I can pretty much ask my daughter anything right now and be sure that at some point in her response, she'll say "poop" and die laughing.

Me: "What do you want for breakfast?"

Answer: "Poop!"

Me: "What are you going to do today?"

Answer: "Go to the park with Mommy... POOP! (laughter...)"

And on and on...

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Fuck The Earth Day

We have company, so I can't get a daily post up.  But this video is far more educational and funny.


Swim and eat rocks, bitches.



F*ck the Earth Day - Watch more free videos

Virtual Office, $1722. SPY, -.74, 137.80.

Sanglucci, $675 on 31,600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $633 on 1560 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $371 on 1000 shares traded.
Timmay, $257 on 1500 shares traded.
OBAT, $210 on 7000 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Denarii, -$90 on 2800 shares traded.
Me, -$334 on 17,000 shares traded.


I tell you what... I'd rather be really jaded and negative while I'm sinking the ship here, rather than be all positive. But for whatever reason, I have this misguided notion that "I'm about to get it" again and that I should "keep trying" and shit like that. I can't shake my positivity.

Ironic, no?

Anyway, score one for the drunken fools with rifles, or, Sanglucci, the "pirate hooker." He made money on the ag stocks, again... hopefully, when the world starves, he'll be rich from pushing fertilizer stocks higher. More food for him, I guess.

Volume EXPLODED higher today... we just got over 1.3 billion shares. Sigh... short NYX.

Meanwhile, it's true, the VO is going through a very lame stretch. However, today the guys did well.

No word from Evolution in weeks. He's not even returning emails. Feel free to speculate in the comment section about his whereabouts... perhaps, if you people come up with some offensive shit, he'll surface to defend himself.

So, where is Evolution? Discuss...

Food Rationing Hits The US



Here's an interesting article on food rationing...

I told my wife this morning that we're all probably going to die a lot sooner than we ever imagined and she told me I was being a dick. "Why be negative if we are all going to die next week?" she said. "Might as well die happy."

Okay.

Nonetheless, just in case, here's some reading for you survivalists.

One That Got Away

I still really need to work on becoming a more patient trader. Take a look at my trade in XTO. I was watching for a run to $69 at least. When the stock rose out of its base (where I bought) there was no volume, and I got caught in a choppy move that cost me $100.



10 minutes later, volume came in and the stock made a nice, easy 80 cent move.

Note to self: trade only when volume comes into a stock.

Barack Obama On Daily Show

Watch as he describes his plans to "enslave the white people" should he be elected. Today is the Pennsylvania Primary. Let us hope that the "politics of fear" fails.

Part 1.

Part 2.

Is Dennis Kneale Worth $1500?



The question: How should DT spend his stimulus package?

Here's how 62 of you voted:

29% Dennis Kneale
25% On a 2 diamond girl
22% Invest in GE
12% Buy a flat screen TV
9% Get some new hubcaps

I guess that on many levels I find it disturbing that so many of you wish I took the $1500 to purchase Dennis Kneale. However, perhaps you were thinking that for $1500, I would buy Dennis Kneale, sprinkle him with some lighter fluid, and light him and his idiot opinions on fire.

That makes sense and would be well worth $1500. Score one for mob mentality.

Note to law enforcement officials: Should Dennis Kneale's charred and beaten body be found in a landfill in NJ, I had NOTHING to do with it. However, I would check this guy out. He has a history of Dennis Kneale abuse.


Note II: Richard has enabled comments over on his blog again. In other words, go abuse him.

Monday, April 21, 2008

The Cure, "Jumping Someone Else's Train"

Tough Day To Be Aggressive

I really wanted to buy WLT today. With the strong ACI earnings, I thought this could be a good sleeper play, as they have some coal operations (along with some metal production and, oddly enough, mortgage financing). But I couldn't find a good spot. In fact, the one time it would have been a good trade is just after 2:45, when it enjoyed a smooth run til the close.



But the thing is, I gave up on the stock at just after 2:30, when I lost 20 cents in it for like, the 3rd or 4th time. I highlight this stock first because this is how low volume days typically trade... with choppiness.

The good thing is that even my bad trades today were well thought out, and not disastrous.

I liked this trade in NEM today. I was looking for the stock to run to $45 support on the daily. He made a decent base around $45.50 and so I got short. The problem was that I got squeezed from my first entry for a loss and so was trigger shy for the second run.



Many of the stocks I was watching today just didn't have good enough volume for me to want to trade them aggressively or with any type of size. So basically, I made many 100 and 200 share trades. My best stock of the day was FCX. But even though I made a couple of 30 and 40 cent trades here, I only made $200 in the stock. No volume, no conviction, no size.



And then, at the very end of the day, a near miss in PX. Here, I was watching for the stock to break $93. And it did, but it pulled back and I lost a little. Since I kept getting caught in these little chop moves, I decided my day was over. At around 3:50 I looked up and saw the stock printing over $94... frustrating.



So I didn't make any money today. But I felt my ideas were good. It was a tough market to execute them though...

Hopefully tomorrow is more interesting.

NOTE: In case you missed it, check Dogwood's post here about my trades on Friday and how pivot points might have helped my exits. However, only read that post... because after that, he posted a Guns 'n' Roses video...

Here's the stats:

P$L, $85
Best, FCX, $204
Worst, WLT, -$114

13,800 shares traded.
11 stocks traded. 4 winners, 7 losers.

Virtual Office, $884. SPY, +.21, 138.72.

Dehtrader, $682 on 3100 shares traded.
Me, $85 on 13,800 shares traded.
OBAT, $70 on 5800 shares traded.
Denarii, $39 on 1200 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $8 on 650 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.


Yeah, that's right... the VO is full of big swingers. We're taking stock trading to a new level right now... a new level of boredom. But hey, kudos to Dehtrader for making lemonade out of lemons.

If you're wondering if it's typical to trade just over 1.1 billion shares during the heart of earnings season, no, it's not typical. In fact, in downright sucks cherries. Indeed, today was the lowest volume day of the year. Fuck.

The stock market is a big fat cherry sucker.

I don't know what else to say... shit is dead. The VIX is back to 20, there is no volume... see you in September, I guess. Oh but wait... September will suck too, because everyone will be waiting for the election.

Okay, see you at Christmas. Be good.

Lowest Volume Of The Year?

It will be close... we're tracking for under 1.2 billion on the NYSE. In other words, there's not a whole lotta "juice" out there.

DT Wins Again!

So happy this fad is done... okay, now what the hell do they do with all that plastic waste?

It took a year of hating, but victory is mine. I hope TG abandoned her long position!

Ron Burgandy Burrito Baxter Scene

I have an unnatural obsession with the scene described below... I finally found a low quality version of it posted on Youtube, so I made it into a paraphrasology post that you all can enjoy!

Man driving car over a bridge while eating burrito. His dog, "Baxter" is in the passenger seat.

"This burrito is delicious but it is filling!"

He throws the burrito out the window, slamming a motorcycle guy who is driving alongside his car, in the face. The motorcycle guy wipes out.

"Anthony and Cleopatra!"

The motorcycle guy recovers from his fall and approaches the car. Below is the ensuing conversation.

Motorcycle Guy: "What the hell, bro?"

Ron Burgandy: "Hello neighbor..."

MG: "Did you just... throw a burrito out your window?"

RB: "I believe I did..."

MG: "What are you high or something??? Did you see what happened?"

RB: "I did see! That was a terrific little spill... that's quite a raspberry."

MG: "That's my chopper you just thrashed, broseph!"

RB: "Easy compadre... I'm your friend out here, all right?"

MG: "I want you to fix my chopper before I stomp your goofy ass!"

RB: "If you want to throw down fisticuffs, fine. I've got Jack Johnson and Tom O'Leary waiting for you... right here!"

MG: "You destroyed the only thing I love. All right? There it is... what do you love?"

RB: "Mmmm.... I love poetry, Dinosaur Trader's blog, a glass of scotch... And of course, my friend Baxter here.

MG: "Well guess what? Now this is happening!"

The motorcycle guy picks up "Baxter" the dog, and walks him over to the edge of the bridge.

RB: "Excuse me... excuse me... what are you doing?"

He punts the dog off the bridge, and into the water.

MG: "That's how I roll."

RB: "Baxter..... NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!"

For poor quality reference material, click below.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

What's With IBC?

It's been down this weekend and now it says you need a password to get in... I guess "the Fly" couldn't pay his server bills, or something.

UPDATE: Dogwood gets the scoop... the site will be up by midnight.

I just finished doing my research for the coming week. Should be very interesting as many coals and fertilizer companies report earnings. Stay nimble.

Saturday, April 19, 2008

The Stock Market Is A Blessed Place

On Friday morning, there was strength everywhere in the market. On CNBC, they talked about the great earnings from GOOG, and the upside movement in C (despite their rather hideous earnings) as the main causes of the rally.

Surprisingly, they overlooked the Pope. As my readers know, the Pope was responsible for Friday's rally. Fuck the heathen at CNBC.

Anyway, so the first trade I made was in KEY. I was looking for a break of $25 on the daily graph. Since this is a rather slow-moving bank stock, I wasn't looking for too much of a move, so I had 800 shares to start and would have added.



The stock broke $25, I entered, but exited shortly after as it couldn't find the "juice" necessary for any kind of upward advance. The stock, while perhaps not committing any really bad sins in the past, clearly had angered the Pope somehow... perhaps it was a simple case of surfing porn on the Internet, who knows? Whatever the case, the Pope wouldn't let the stock move, and so I exited with a small loss.

For my second trade of the day, I looked to HON.



I was watching the $60 level on the daily graph, and the stock reported earnings as well, so I was expecting good movement. The stock gapped higher, and consolidated right under $60, in a somewhat convincing way. So when it traded $60, I bought and was filled at $60.05. The stock immediately reversed and dropped a half point in the next 2 minutes.

Now I'm sure there are many of you who read this blog to get some sadistic type of pleasure from my failings. That's fine. If I knew who you were, I'd laugh at you too. But anyway, here's an actual case where I can prove that I learned something... You'll recall that on Thursday, I entered MTL and was "ass-raped" and got all tilty because of it. I entered the position and failed to take my loss quickly, so it blossomed into a large loss, which then led to many, many, bad trades.

In HON, I entered at $60.05 and immediately placed a stop at $59.90. I figured if it worked, it would work, and if not, I'd get out for a quick loss and maybe revisit the trade later. In this instance, the stock reversed and stopped me out at $59.86, for a 20 cent loss, my worst of the day.

Now, had I been all stubborn, this trade could have been much worse. The stock dropped straight down to $59, (clearly, HON slept with his neighbor's wife, or something, causing the Pope to hate it) and didn't recover to my original entry price for another hour and a half, at which point, it WAS a buy, but I was already out in the sun, surfing. Fuck you, HON.

I highlighted the first two trades of my day because I thought it was important that I took the losses and moved on. No revenge, no anger... just let 'em go.

Next, came FLR, a pissy stock if there ever was one.



Here, I was watching $159 on the daily. The stock opened strong and played with that level in the first few moments of trade. When it pulled back, I bid for and received 100 shares of stock at $158.69 and placed my stop at $158. I thought the stock would base for a few moments, allowing me to pick up a little more before $159, but instead, after a quick test of $158, volume moved into the stock, and ran it straight up over $160.

I got stopped out on a choppy move down below $159.50. I was trailing a stop below the previous 5-min candle. Perhaps I need to work on finding better exits while the stock is running, because in this case, the stock ultimately ran to $161, so I left some movement on the table. Still, I took 80 cents out, and that brought me back to feeling good about the day's opportunity.

The next trade I took ended up being my big winner of the day, CMI. I was watching $54 on the daily. So when the stock opened up strong on good volume and then based for a few minutes, I watched closely and began to enter at $53.11. By the time it got up to $53.37, I had 500 shares. As it ran to $54, volume decreased, and so I exited the position around $53.80 or so.

The stock then pulled back, in a fairly orderly way, back to the original breakout area, of $53.25. So I bid for and received some at $53.33 and then picked up a few hundred more at .45. I had 600 shares. This time, I exited most of the position over $54 and then trailed a stop for 200, hoping for a larger move. Unfortunately, I was stopped out just after 11, thus missing the run to $56. Clearly, CMI has been tithing. The stock has been blessed.



Okay, and the last trade I'll highlight is in the lunatic known as MTL. This stock has been on the HCPG watchlist for a run to $152. Indeed, that's why I bothered with it on Thursday when I took a big loss in the fucker. On Friday, however, victory was mine. He had better volume than he had on Thursday, and a long, tight base.

So I entered, (only 100 shares this time, because I was scared) when he emerged from his base on decent volume, at $150.55. The stock ran right up to $152, but instead of showing any signs of stopping, huge volume moved in and the stock vaulted right up to $154.



Kind of as a joke, I put in a sell limit at $153.70 when it traded $152. Given the volatility in the stock I thought he could get there, but I really wasn't expecting it. However, due to an egregious contribution to the Catholic Charities Fund and plenty of volunteer work at its local Children's Hospital, MTL found the power (from the Pope) to power higher and hit my target. As it turned out, it was a pretty good exit.

So that's when I packed it in and hit the beach. And surf was great... there were old guys out in the water hooting like kids and beautiful, long rides on perfect clean waves. I tell you, I don't know if there's anything better that the first days of spring.

Note: no stats because I can't get into my execution system on the weekends...

Trapped For 41 Hours In An Elevator

Poor guy.


Trapped in an Elevator for 41 Hours - Watch more free videos

Friday, April 18, 2008

Virtual Office, $1607. SPY, +1.76, 138.82.

Me, $814 on 7600 shares traded.
OBAT, $395 on 5000 shares traded.
Timmay, $180 on 2000 shares traded.
Denarii, $107 on 2800 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $89 on 3500 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $22 on 650 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.


The pope rules. He blessed the entire VO... not one red (reporting... AHEM!) member.

Seriously, today was insane. I traded the first hour or so and then went surfing for the rest of the day. I just can't get into the market going up everyday on this ridiculous volume.

The good news is that my company's execution system went down midday and stayed down, so I didn't miss anything by not being here anyway.

My house is currently surrounded by 3 year olds... I see them outside, bitter and clinging to their sippy cups and mothers, just waiting to destroy my house. We're hosting playgroup...

Yes, I will be drinking tonight.

I will definitely have a daily post up for this weekend, perhaps up very late tonight. Stop by.

What's Really Driving Stocks Higher....



"Howdy folks, buy stocks!" Pope Benedict XXIVCXXIII, April 2008

A Disappointed Reader?

Last night, some poor soul searched for "up the ass with a candlestick" in Google. Their first option was this post... something tells me they left my blog disappointed.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Death Cab For Cutie, "The New Year"

Virtual Office, $270. SPX, +2.60, 1373.50.

Sanglucci, $2212 on 52,600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $216 on 6698 shares traded.
Denarii, $29 on 4800 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.

OBAT, -$48 on 15,000 shares traded.
Ainkurn, -$250 on 750 shares traded.
Me, -$1889 on 21,200 shares traded.


What a fucking mess...

Not sure what to think when it takes us until 3:40 to hit a billion shares traded on the NYSE smack dab in the middle of earnings season... an anticipated earnings season at that.

Are people throwing in the towel on investing in the stock market? Where is the money flowing? Not into stocks, despite the recent runs in the indexes.

It's waaay too fucking quiet out there and it's freaking me out.

I got my clock cleaned. I won't have a daily post up tonight, but I can break it down for you in this way... "new DT" lost $500 and then the "old DT" took over and lost the rest. $1300 courtesy of CLF.

Needless to say, "old DT" is not allowed in my office anymore.

GOOG looks like it blew out earnings... over $500 afterhours... I guess the rally continues.

Props to Sanglucci, for keeping the VO respectable. He "juiced" the ag stocks, I believe.

Tilt Session

I started the day well, with a few controlled trades in a shitty tape that had me up a few hundred bucks. Then, I ran into SLB and started giving money away. So I lost my gains and was down a few hundred. No disaster, but I should have read the warning signs.

Going from positive to negative is just never a good thing. My next trade, set me up for a real tilt.



So now I was just angry at myself. Yes, it was a complete fuckjob in that stock, but more importantly, I was down big and should have walked away to take a breath or something. Instead, I found CLF... all the metals stocks are down except for him.

I got short, stubborn, and smoked... doubling my losses.



So I'm done for the day and walking away from the computer.

Paraphrasology


"Tomorrow night they would be outside the Escorial in the dark along the road; the long lines of trucks loading the infantry in the darkness; the men, heavy loaded, climbing up into the trucks; the tanks being run up the skids onto the long-bodied tank trucks; pulling the Division out to move them in the night for the attack on the pass. Dinosaur Trader would not think about that. That was not his business. That was Golz's business. He had only one thing to do and that was what he should think about and he must think it out clearly and take everything as it came along, and not worry. To worry was as bad as to be afraid. It simply made things more difficult."

A Disappointed Reader

Last night, some poor soul searched for "up the ass with a candlestick" in Google. Their first option was this post... something tells me they left my blog disappointed.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Shade Sheist ft. Nate Dogg & Kurupt - Where I Wanna Be!!!

Dedicated to "the Fly," who died earlier today... RIP.



NOTE: "I love scotch. I love scotch. Scotchy! Scotch! Scotch! Here it goes down, down into my belly."

Entries and Exits

There have been so many times when I thought I was "on the verge" of getting my game back, only to get "deballed" shortly after. In the last couple of weeks, I've had that feeling, but then have days like yesterday, that set me back. Then there are days like today, where I manage to make money, but feel "deballed" nonetheless.

It's a tough game we play.

So here are my exits in OXY, my best stock of the day. While I made some money in it, the action highlights how much I can improve. I had 700 shares of this stock at an average price below $80 and made about $425 total, or about 60 cents... it ran over 3 points.



My next trade was in SID, another HCPG watchlist play. Here, I had 1000 shares from around $41.85. Below are my exits.



So I made about 40 cents total, on my shares and left another 60 cents on the table. Very frustrating. Because really, while the stock dipped back down to 20 cents, it was no where near my entry. Maybe I should have sold half there... but I should have held on to some instead of exiting the full position. Indeed, that was a great buy spot...

My third "good entry" of the day came in PCU. I rather hate this stock... he always seems to kick my ass, but today I had the upper hand. I had 300 shares just ahead of $120.



I'm also okay with this trade... as he had a quick and nasty shakeout below $120 just after I sold.

On the downside, I lost $300 today in ICE. This guy is tough. There was no volume today in the stock (until the close), and I should have just let it be. The only positive is that I traded him with small size and didn't make any revenge trades.



So to tie this post up, despite my lackluster performance today, and this month, I'm beginning to have more confidence in my entries. Once I start feeling that every time I buy a stock I'm not going to get screwed, I think I'll be able to work on my exits. And then, I can worry about sizing up again.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $680
Best, OXY, $432
Worst, ICE, -$297

10,200 shares traded.
9 stocks traded, 4 winners, 5 losers.

Virtual Office, -$1613. SPX, +30.10, 1366.00

Me, $680 on 10,200 shares traded.
OBAT, $315 on 7400 shares traded.
Denarii, $88 on 3600 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Sanglucci, -$48 on 3000 shares traded.
Timmay, -$238 on 2800 shares traded.
Ainkurn, -$268 on 300 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$2142 on 4450 shares traded.


Look, I'm just as confused as you are... and if my "proprietary market research" on who you are is correct, that means I'm pretty fucking confused.

In the last year, we've witnessed a few instances of these completely low volume huge rallies... after last February, after last August, and now. It's like, for months at a time the sellers take off to go visit sex clubs in Thailand, or something.

We rip on low volume, and then the sellers come back and we tank on high volume... wash... rinse... repeat.

Could I pin this on the hybrid market somehow? The inverse ETFs? The uptick rule?

All I know, is that the derided "degenerate OTB guys" that "the Fly" bashes on, are eating his cake right now.

Also, and this is unrelated to the market, I did a little experiment today. Over on Timmay's blog, I linked my "The Bookstore Monster" post with the words, "hot, eager, naked college chicks" and got at least 11 hits.

Anyway, I'll have an extensive daily post up later tonight... I have some shit to go over, because I should have made ten grand today.

McCain Wants To Freeze Gasoline Tax

Idiot. Panderer. Hypocrite.

Actually, I finally agreed with Dennis Kneale! You cut the gasoline tax, and gas would be cheaper at the pump, thus creating more demand.

Note to John McCain and the other presidential candidates (they're all regular readers)... We need to use less gasoline, not more.

Gasoline is already cheap in our country, and with 44% all of our income taxes going to fund completely idiotic wars, we need some money to help support our ailing infrastructure. It makes sense to use any federal taxes that are on gasoline to fix bridges, before they fall on people.

We should fucking RAISE the tax on gasoline while at the same time LOWER the income tax... or, at least, reallocate the income tax for better uses.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

The Bookstore Monster

Despite our best efforts to not socialize our daughter in an overtly girly way, she's very girly indeed. As such, her favorite book at the tender age of 3 is "Fancy Nancy," which is about a girl who likes to accessorize and use French words. So recently, when we asked her which book she wanted to buy for our friend's 2 year old daughter, her immediate response was, "Fancy Nancy."

We entered the local book shop and walked into the children's section. In the middle of the section is a short table with tiny chairs on which you'll normally find a couple of toddlers paging through books while their parents browse the small store. Today however, the table was occupied by an 11 year old boy and his slightly younger sister. A well dressed, and oiled kind of man was sitting on a leather chair adjacent to the table, complaining loudly to his children.

"Why don't you choose something interesting to read?" he was whining to them.

I didn't recognize the guy, and since our town is small (much smaller in the winter) I knew he was one of the city people who grace us with their presence seasonally. We call them "city-ots" (rhymes with "idiots"). The boy huffed back, "But I only like books about MAAHNSTERS!"

The father's phone started ringing and he gave me a look that said, "Can you believe this shit?" But since I couldn't find one ounce of sympathy for the man, I shot him back a look that said, "The kid is a prick just like you." We walked by him and all his tension, to pick "Fancy Nancy" from the shelf.

As we were paying, the boy walked up to the "kind old lady" behind the counter and asked for a book. I didn't hear the title, but I heard him say, "It was released in Europe months ago, and you should have it." He added, "I'm only 11, but I read at an adult level."

The woman drew a breath, studied the boy for a moment, plunked a few keystrokes and quietly shook her head while staring at the screen. "Sorry, but we don't have anything listed for that author."

The boy walked behind the counter and tried looking under her arm at the screen, to double check her search.

"Excuse me..." the woman said.

Her disapproval didn't throw the boy off. "Try again," he ordered, "but type his first name first."

"Sorry, but the database doesn't work that way. If it didn't come up under his last name, it surely won't come up under his first." She was trying very hard to remain calm. "Listen," she said, "I can suggest something else in the genre. Have you read Anne Rice?"

"Yeah, yeah, I've read all her stuff. But I didn't even like it much."

"Okay... how about Stephen King? Have you tried him? He's written many, many books."

"Read 'em all," he dismissed with a wave of his hand.

The woman was growing flustered. This was the kind of kid who'd strain anyone's patience in a matter of seconds. Clearly, he'd been raised by someone who had been paid to raise him...

She took a peek into the back of the store where the boy's father was talking loudly on his cell phone. Something about her "kind old lady" look quickly changed. She asked the boy, "Oh, what about J.S Bach?" Perhaps you'd like him?"

"Nope read him... wasn't impressed."

The woman flashed a little smile and leaned over the counter. "Look kid," she growled. "Get the fuck away from me before I light you on fire with my laser beam eyes."

The boy stumbled backwards and fumbled his way back to the children's section, where he tried to tell his father what happened. But his father was too engaged in his phone conversation to care.

The old woman turned her attention back to us and purred, "Would you like anything else today?"

We paid and left the store, not entirely looking forward to the summer.

Cocorosie, "Good Friday"

I meant to do a daily post tonight, but a quick walk around the block turned into meeting the new neighbors, which turned into a house tour and drinks... so I won't have the time.  However, meeting new neighbors is always good for me, as it means I'll have plenty to write about in the future. Neighbors cause me all types of trouble typically...

Virtual Office, -$285. SPX, +4.90, 1336.20.

Dehtrader, $403 on 3062 shares traded.
Denarii, $116 on 2600 shares traded.
OBAT, $35 on 9400 shares traded.
Timmay, $0 on 2000 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Ainkurn, -$118 on 300 shares traded.
Me, -$721 on 23,400 shares traded.


Holy fucking shit... I just got so hosed on "imbalances" it's unbelievable.

At 3:40 every day, the NYSE publishes imbalances in stocks, that have built up through the day. Today, for example, huge imbalances were published, to the downside.

WMB came out with a -1,337,800 sell imbalance... TGT had a -2,109,700 sell imbalance, FRE had a -3,484,900 sell imbalance... and there were many more.

Now on a normal day, at 3:50 these numbers get adjusted. Normally, they get taken down a bit. So you would expect WMB to still have a sell imbalance, but maybe for 600,000 shares or so. Today, every imbalance SWITCHED at 3:50. Meaning all those massive sells became BUY imbalances. It feels like fraud, but really, what must have happened is that somebody, between 3:40 and 3:50, decided they wanted to buy today's close in a massive way.

Take from that what you will, but let's just say, today's close was not "normal..." there was some big money there, and it wanted to buy stock in the DOW companies. Could it have been the PPT? WSF? We'll probably never know...

But what it means to a "little guy" like me who was playing the imbalances "like a degenerate OTB guy" is that I got fucked.

Anyway, enough about me for now. Even with the excitement of the close, the volume today was awful again on the NYSE. Now, perhaps more and more volume is moving off the exchange... this is possible since the hybrid is still... well... the hybrid. If that's the case, then short NYX. But for all practical trading purposes, it makes things more difficult, because there's often less follow through.

Something was afoot today in the last half of the trading day. While I got smoked, it gives me hope that trading is about to become more active again... we'll see.

UPDATE: INTC up 10% afterhours... seriously, with that close, you gotta wonder who had that news early. I call bullshit on the stock market. Investigate... impeach, whatever...