Tuesday, June 5, 2007
To be honest, I didn't know what to expect when I checked my P&L at 4 today.
I felt like I was getting smoked all day, but I think that's because I kept playing around with CMI and losing. The good news is that when I lost in him, I only lost with a few hundred shares at most. So it never got out of hand.
Volume on the NYSE really picked up today versus yesterday's levels, so it was a clear day of distribution for the Dow and S&P. But still, with the gains of the last couple of months, who really cares, right? If we see a couple of more days like today though, it will be time to start paying attention.
Anyway, I had a rather slow day. My best stock of the day was CF which, like TNH and POT makes fertilizers. The entire agricultural sector was the only place I found green stocks today. Every one that I have on my screen, DE, AG, CNH, LNN, POT, TNH, AGU, MON, CF and MOS were up for the day. The only other place where similar strength occurred was in the solar stocks.
Despite it's strength, CF was a choppy trade today. I really just got lucky by having a fairly large position in the stock when it spiked up just after 10:00. The good thing was that I recognized my luckiness and took profits near the top. Other than that trade, I lost in most of my other trades in the stock today.
The morning was crappy and the move in the market came midday. I miss a lot of midday moves because I trade very lightly, if at all, between 11:30 and 2. Ideally, I'm looking at charts and trying to find good ideas for the afternoon. Today, I mowed my lawn and got a haircut.
Anyway, I have to cut this short today because I have to be out of the house by 4:30.
Here's the stats:
Best, CF $289
Worst, CMI, -$260
shares traded, 29,800
stocks traded, 12, 6 positive, 6 negative
total trades, 198
Misstrade, $3520 on 14,800 shares traded.
Denarii, $76 on 2400 shares traded.
Me, $51 on 29,800 shares traded.
EvolutionTrader, $8 on 47,300 shares traded.
Well, it was a dull day for everyone except Misstrade today.
The market really just chopped around for the first hour-and-a-half and the real move downwards came at around 11:30. That's the time I typically chill so I had trouble gaining any momentum.
Today, I used the middle of the day to mow my lawn...the market used that time to mow down the longs.
So anyway, we'll try this again tomorrow.
Found a new site today called Short Da Bull by clicking one of "the Fly's" $75 advertisements... as if that dude needs more money right now.
Anyway, it's a fun site. Looks like it will only get better as new users find it and vote news stories up or down. Check it out.
Also, here's a link to an article by Van Tharp on "Getting Through The Tough Times".
Posted by Dinosaur Trader at 2:28 PM
Well, not sure if this was the right thing to do, but I covered the TNH short with some limit orders, some at 94.15 and some at 94.79. The rest I just bought back at market at 95.47.
The more I come to terms with the new reality of the hybrid market the more I realize that market orders are simply dead unless you are trading very liquid stocks.
For the first 8 years of this job I traded "thin" stocks (typically trading less than 750k per day) with market orders and I consistently made good money. Since the inception of the hybrid market I have learned that strategy is no longer viable.
The first big change in my trading is that, I now actively cover positions, long and short, with limit orders only. I still don't like it, but it seems to be what works now.
Going out to mow the lawn with my new Brill Lawnmower.
This isn't a lawn and garden site or anything, but if you have a fairly small, flat lawn I would highly recommend this mower. It's quiet, doesn't require gas and there's no dust. It has completely changed the way I think about mowing my lawn.
My "mowing the lawn" short position is in TNH...
Hopefully it gets back down near 94 where I will cover some of my short. The market feels like it's really weakening now so we'll see what happens. 2283 declining issues on the NYSE.
A choppy day thus far in the market. TNH is rocking and rolling again as is the entire AG sector which really, besides airlines, are the only stocks I have in the green right now.
Here's another great song. This girl has a sweet voice but the best part about this song is the way it just blows up.
From their new album.
Funny how PR works nowadays. Last night, I read an article in the New Yorker about the band's new album. I'm a longtime fan and it was a solid review. Then this morning, I wake up, check Pitchfork and they have this song posted.
And then I post it here. And the wheel keeps turning.