Friday, May 30, 2008

The Libertines, "Can't Stand Me Now"

Green=good music.

Trading MDR On An Otherwise Quiet Day

My day was really dominated by one stock. I traded several stocks on the day, but all with 100 shares, since I didn't have any confidence in their setups... I was just taking small gambles.

I liked MDR though, and so I watched it very closely, mostly because I didn't feel there was much else happening. Volume today, was pathetic (until the close, that is) and as it was the last trading day of the month, I planned on taking it easy no matter what.

MDR was on the HCPG watchlist last night for a move up to $62. However, they added a caveat that they thought the stock needed "more time." Apparently, the stock didn't want to wait. It spiked nearly 2 points in the first 15 minutes of trade before taking a breath, at around $61. At this juncture, the stock needed to base before it could move much higher, and so it was time to chill and watch.

About a half hour later, the stock worked its way back up to $61 and I bought a few hundred shares with an average price of $61.05. He moved up and so I bought 100 more at $61.20. Now, I threw some sell limits out there up in the $61.80-$61.90 area, but they weren't hit.

Instead, the fucker reversed.

I wish I had sold out of all my shares, but I wasn't quick enough. This is a problem I have with the target system... if I'm expecting the stock to trade higher, and it fails, I'm not quite sure how aggressively I should be moving my stops up. I probably shouldn't have held my position as the stock dipped below $61, but I did.

In fact, I bought a little more at $60.89 and $60.90. So I had 600 shares, which lately, is a large position for me.

But man... that's when "the stand-off" began. For the next 20 minutes or so, the dude traded in a dime range. My "out" was $60.80, and so having "the toad" (Wincity's technical term) trade pennies above this level for such an extended period of time wore out my nerves. I flaked and sold 300 shares at an average price of $60.86. The remaining 300 I left stopped at $60.80.

I noticed on the 15 minute graph that MDR was making some NRIBs, or something... I went over to Jamie's site to see what I could find... some answer or something. From what I could figure out, he liked the setup (meanwhile, Jamie, if you're reading, am I right to think those are NRIBs on the 15 minute graph from 11:00-11:30 today?). So when the stock cleared the top of the first 15 minute bar in the "set" I bought 200 more, at $61.17. So I had 500 again and the stock began to move in my favor. I actually felt confident that I was going to be right with this one.

Still, I flaked and sold 100 at $61.34 and another near the morning highs, at $61.42.

But with my last 300, I held, and I was fairly satisfied with the results. I limited 200 of the 300 out at $61.90 expecting resistance at the old high of $62. So far, so good. The last 100 shares, I really wanted to hold, so I set my stop low, at $61.25, giving the stock plenty of room. As it traded up, I moved the stop below the previous 15 minute bar.

After the stock cleared $62 with some "brio," I decided to move my stop just below the most recent price level. The low of the move, at 12:55, was $61.86, so I put my stop at $61.85.

Well guess what? The motherfucker came down and stopped me out, filling me at $61.78, the low of the fucking move. After that, it sailed back up over $62, reaching a high of $62.72 before reversing lower to close at around $62. So I was pissed. A good trade, but I still managed to get myself stopped out at the low of a move for some shares.

I finished the month with a green day, and so, I'll take it. But man, I'm itching to start sizing into these positions more. I felt confident with this trade after it cleared $61.17 the second time around... perhaps I'll start getting that feeling more.

Also, the fact that my worst trades of the day were made with small size I also take as a good sign.

Tomorrow I'll post a "monthly review" since I set some monthly goals for myself in May, I want to assess how I did. Also, bloggerdotcom has been teasing me with some new post that he may or may not have written... that will drop, eventually.

Have a good weekend, stock market bitches.

Here's the stats:
Best, MDR,
Worst, RIG,

4200 shares traded.
9 stocks traded, 4 winners, 5 losers.

Virtual Office, $2. SPY, +0.24, $140.26.

Me, $122 on 4200 shares traded.
Tokyo, $60 on 793 shares traded.
OBAT, -$89 on 9000 shares traded.
Denarii, -$91 on 3400 shares traded.

Wow, we did 40% of today's volume in the last 20 minutes of trade. There were loads of imbalances... obscure, little stocks, with huge imbalances. Not sure what to make of it all. But it was a heavy volume, strange close. I lost $50 just playing around... normally, when there are that many imbalances, they work. Not today.

Anyway, speaking of imbalances, I'm looking forward to the upcoming Russell Rebalancing... guys in my office are already salivating over the possible gains and losses.

Until the close, we were on track to trade less than a billion shares on the day. So it was largely quiet out there. The VO was largely absent and not much of a force to be reckoned with in trading.

I have to say, that trading without the "aid" of CNBC is much nicer. It's quiet, unemotional, and fun. Turn off the TV and just watch the graphs... better for the blood pressure levels.

I'll have a daily post up later this evening and over the weekend, a monthly recap, of sorts.

QUESTION: Is my blog load time all fucked up? And can you see the "recent comments" widget? It seems to have disappeared...

Flaming Lips, "The Abandoned Hospital Ship"

I don't watch or listen to CNBC anymore... I just have my iPod on shuffle. I figure, if I'm not going to make money, at least I can listen to good music.

Anyway, this song came on today and seemed somewhat relevant to my situation. Despite the odd title, it seems to be about someone who has come through some ordeal, and is looking back on it from the other side. So perhaps it's not relevant just yet, but maybe soon, it will be.

Robots Set To Colonize Antarctica

So they've already taken over the stock market and now they're onto Antarctica.

I mean, I love the game of Risk. I always start in Indonesia and then creep my way into Asia and take over the world. I'm pretty sure that the robots are using Antarctica as a springboard to launch their global war of death and destruction.