Friday, October 10, 2008

2Pac, "Keep Ya Head Up"

If I was playing strictly by the rules, I would have picked today's song because Trader B didn't double the #2 guy, Trader D. However, since the dude made such sick money, I decided to give him today's song. But then he skipped out of the office and didn't choose. Instead, Trader D picked this tune. Enjoy it.

The RO Report, "Historic" Edition

I'm assuming you know what happened in the market today, but just in case you got drunk early, here's a quick rundown.

We drop 800 points in the first 5 minutes of trade. In the next half hour, we rip, and take back 600. By noon, we've dropped 700 off our highs. For the next 3 hours, we trade in a relatively tame 400 point range. Then, at 3pm, we're off to the races, jumping an amazing 900 points in 40 minutes. At 3:40, the MOCs come out predominately to the downside, and we drop a quick 500.

I won't say it was a "rollercoaster ride," because that implies it was fun. It was sick, and it was historic. If you traded today, you can say that you traded the single most volatile day ever recorded in stock market history. The high on the VIX was 76.94.

In short, it wasn't a day for the light-hearted... not even close.

The volume was big. 3 billion on the NYSE. I think it would have been even larger, but to make the day even more beleaguering, in the last 20 minutes, there were some street-wide data problems. A number of traders in my office got really, really screwed because of computer and data feed issues. On a day like today, that kind of goes with the territory, but it still sucks.

The morning felt very much like a bottom, but it came too early. The fact that we drifted back to the lows and then had that ridiculous rally at the end of the day, is a good sign. The one problem, was that nauseating 500 point drop in the last 20 minutes.

That shouldn't be overlooked and it's quite possible we need to go lower before this is over.

So going into next week, I have no strong feel. Given the close, I think that perhaps the best way to make this stick, would be to drop a few hundred points below Dow 7882, today's low, and then snap back to close at the high of the day. However, it's also possible that 7882 was the bottom afterall... sorry, but at this point, only time will tell.

Some good news over the weekend could help to clarify the situation.

Anyway, it was an excellent day for the RO, especially for Traders B and D, who sprayed, massively, all over the entire office. Out of 27 traders today, 17 finished gross positive, or 63%. 9 traders finished up over $10,000 gross, however, 9 traders also lost more than $1,000 gross. I'll take that ratio any day.

I was #5 of 27, or, a motherfucking boss.

Here are today's Bosses:

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader B, $299,723 on 1.5 million shares traded.

2. Trader D, $175,271 on 1 million shares traded.
3. Trader A, $61,677 on 558k shares traded.
4. Trader F, $41,831 on 315k shares traded.
5. Trader S, $23,140 on 120k shares traded.

And the Manservants:

"Chambermaid" - Trader V, -$5,526 on 95,600 shares traded.

2. Trader N, -$3,046 on 23,200 shares traded.
3. Trader Z, -$2,651 on 671k shares traded.
4. Trader I, -$2,083 on 53,200 shares traded.
5. Trader 6, -$2,022 on 100 shares traded.

Get some rest.

A View From The NYSE

Over on Ray's blog, (he's a big fan of Dinosister, btw) I asked him what the feeling has been like on the exchange in the last few days. He offered this very eloquent response.

I'm usually there for the open and the close, and the faces I see at those times are driven, intently watching and working the news stocks. There's a sense that the news is huge every day, and that it's all around us, from the feds, from the companies, from overseas, all at the same time. People are walking a little faster and talking both a little faster and a little louder. The sound of a broker tapping a stylus on his wireless order-management device is a little more staccato. Brokers seem like they've got a lot more orders to work, or bigger orders. There are more and bigger crowds around specialists. It feels like people are in overdrive.

The Crash Of 2008 Versus 1987

Here's a link to the intraday chart of the Dow when it crashed in 1987.

We'll see how today ends. My guess is that we're not done yet, but it's hard to position aggressively one way or the other right now.

Hey Larry Kudlow... Where's Goldilocks Now?


Fire this idiot, CNBC. He has only succeeded at muddying the conversation for the last year.

Seriously people, let's start a campaign. Let CNBC know you don't appreciate the bullshit.


John Lennon, "Nobody Told Me"