One night we were having drinks with friends. There were ten of us around a large, round, candlelit table at a local restaurant. We were the last patrons that evening and it was pretty obvious that the waitstaff wanted to go home, but since we all had procured babysitters on the same night, we were taking advantage of the situation.
The waiters would have to do just that... wait.
Discussion was wide-ranging and eventually, because we were all drinking, someone brought up "the supernatural." My friend Sal looked at me and said, "You've never seen anything fucked-up at your house, have you?"
The table went suddenly quiet. "What do you mean?" I asked, somewhat defensively. "Like a ghost? No."
Another friend chimed in. "Yeah, I've heard stuff about your place. Actually, we used to not walk by your house because we were freaked out about it."
Normally, a conversation like this would be funny, however, I was immediately pissed because Judy really believes in this stuff. I glanced over at her and she was "whited."
At this moment, the restaurant manager walked over to the table and informed us that they were closing up for the night and that we had to get going. With this, the conversation ended and we all headed home.
In bed that night, Judy couldn't sleep. Every time I woke I'd look over at her and see her eyes wide open, staring at the ceiling. Something would have to be done. I had to find out what was up and then make up some story to tell to Judy. If the truth was that our house was controlled by the supernatural and that the supernatural wanted to rape our cats, well, then... I would have to somehow thwart this truth from getting to Judy.
So the next night we went to Sal's house for dinner. He took me outside to show me some masonry work he'd had done. I decided to bring up our conversation from the night before, "Dude, you completely freaked Judy out with that talk about our house..."
"Oh, that! Yeah, well, I'd be freaked out too!" he said. A little bit too nonchalantly for my taste.
"Why? What did you hear?"
"I heard there's something there... like, not a ghost, but more like some malevolent power. An entity or something."
"Sal, this sounds like a bad movie."
"Yeah, well, I'm just telling you what I heard. Like, I heard this 'entity' pulled a young girl across the floor by her hair."
At this point, I was pretty sure he was just trying to fuck with me and I told him as much. But the next day, I saw my other friend and I asked him the same question.
He was more evasive. "I dunno. I just heard stuff, some of it bad. I dunno. I don't really believe in stuff like that."
"Stuff like what?" I pressed.
"You know. Ghosts and shit."
"So you heard our house is haunted?"
"Yeah, more or less."
Anyway, weeks went by. Awful weeks. Weeks where I held this "secret" about our house that I wouldn't tell Judy because I knew it would just freak her out. But, truth be told, I was a little freaked out too. Moreover, I didn't even know "the whole story" I had just been fed insinuations and my imagination did the rest. Like I thought about my daughter being dragged around by her hair... by some "force." I thought of the movie Poltergeist. I was freaked out.
So anyway, we were doing some work on our house and the village building inspector had to come and approve the work we wanted done. I had met the inspector before because I do some volunteer work for the town. One night after a meeting, while everyone was shuffling out, he whispered me aside and invited me to have a drink of some of his homemade moonshine with him. He was a strange dude but our house had to be inspected so he had to stop by.
The day of our appointment he came to our front door and just stood there, looking past me into the house.
I greeted him, "Hey, Jay. What's up?"
"I haven't been in this house in... years... Ever see anything here?" He had this spaced out look on his face.
"Are you kidding me? I mean, we've been here for 5 years and suddenly in the last month everyone is telling us the house is haunted. What gives?"
Jay walked past me and into the house and stood at the base of the stairwell. He looked up the stairs. "That's where she used to be," he said. "And she also used to hang out in the basement... in the workroom. You know? The oil burner room?"
"Yeah, that's my 'man room'" I'm very protective of my man room.
"Yeah, well, that's where she showed up."
"Who?" I asked.
"The Indian Princess," he said as if I should have known.
Over a beer, Jay went on the explain everything in detail. The man who lived in the house before us was a big fisherman and he had a huge freezer in the basement. He would clean and gut fish down there, sometimes for hours at a time. Well anyway, apparently he was down there, cleaning a fish when he "went cold" and felt a strange presence in the room with him. He turned around and saw what appeared to be a young Native American girl. She was dressed in brown rags but was wearing a crown made of flowers and bird feathers. He looked at her, she gasped, ran into a dark corner and disappeared. The man went upstairs and told his family but no one believed him. Apparently, that was the first of many sightings that he had.
Meanwhile, the father had a son but they had a prickly relationship. But when the father was dying, (right before we bought the house) the son admitted that he too had seen the "Indian Princess" and that he hadn't told the father because he wanted his mother to think his father was nuts. He told the father that "the Princess" was jealous of the girlfriends the boy brought home and would act up at the most awkward times.
I mean, what do you do when everyone is telling you that your house is haunted?
I decided to call the old people who live on my block. Surely, if a little girl had been dragged around by her hair in my house by some "entity," someone would have heard about it. I first spoke to the guy who lives directly across the street.
He told me he'd never heard anything like that but went on to say, "I did hear once that someone spotted a whole pack of 'braves' running through the woods over by Village Hall."
Mrs. Murphy, "the witch" told me she hadn't heard anything about my house either but that her mother once woke up in the middle of the night and claimed that she was being attacked by a soldier. She said that some famous battle had been fought here during the Revolutionary War and that she thought it could have been because of that... but she also told me that her mom was really old and probably a little crazy.
Everyone, it seemed, had a ghost story, but none of them knew ours.
Finally, one neighbor, the big gossip on the block, told me that she had heard about the "Indian Princess." She had heard the same stories that Jay had told us, directly from the homeowners. But she also told me that the father was a raging alcoholic and that the son was addicted to drugs. "I mean, you're talking about a teenage boy in the late 70s... they all saw ghosts back then. And the father... I don't think he was ever sober. Always catching fish or drinking like one."
This was enough for me to go back to Judy with and calm her down. "The people who lived here before us were alcoholic, drug-addled freaks," I said. "They saw ghosts all the time... big deal!" I tried to sound unconcerned about it all.
Meanwhile, it's been 6 years since we've lived here and no sign of "the Princess" yet. However, every once in a while when my daughter wakes up screaming, like out of a nightmare or something, I jump right out of bed because I think I have to get into the next room before the "Indian Princess" gets to her first.
Even if she just wants to put a bird feather in her hair...
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
One night we were having drinks with friends. There were ten of us around a large, round, candlelit table at a local restaurant. We were the last patrons that evening and it was pretty obvious that the waitstaff wanted to go home, but since we all had procured babysitters on the same night, we were taking advantage of the situation.
Akalawoo, $204 on 3 contracts traded.
OBAT, $24 on 14,800 shares traded.
Misstrade, $0 on 500 shares traded.
Stewie, no trades, vacation for 1-2 weeks.
Tapeworm, -$15 on 6 contracts traded.
Me, -$429 on 39,800 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$1426 on 1600 shares traded.
I dunno, FED days generally suck for trading and today was no exception to that rule. When was the last time the VO was down? It's been awhile.
Uncle Ben cut 25bp and also cut the discount rate window 25bp. The market hated the news before it completely loved the news. Since the market is made up of a mixture of humans and robots programmed by introverted weirdos, it tends to freak out when news hits. Today was no disappointment in that regard either.
In the end, the market closed up nicely on impressive volume of 1.6 billion shares, most of it coming after the announcement.
I'm happy today is behind us. Now I have to go trick or treat with a bunch of kids. Immediately after I will probably drink too much. That said, I wouldn't expect a daily post. However, if I come home a little buzzed and in the correct mood I will finish the post about my haunted house, titled "Indian Princess."
Again, there's a bunch.
I'll be watching the following:
LFG, BWLD, LNC, RNR, RTI, WLL, WYNN, GRMN, LAZ, MA and SPW
However, I plan on trading extremely lightly ahead of the FED announcement at 2:15.
NOTE: I know I said I'd have a Halloween post up today. Something about an "Indian Princess." However, I (stupidly) watched the Democratic debate last night and didn't get a chance to finish the post. If I have a slow morning I'll get it done. Maybe it's better if I post it when the sun goes down anyway...
Back to some lighter fare...
I mean if you're old like me and can't stay up to watch the show, this is the best way to see it now. Just click "play" on the large video screen to watch the previous night's show.
Also, they have a bunch of classic Daily Show clips.
Here's something scary for you on Halloween.
Exxon is having their day in court... they think their fine for the Exxon Valdez spill is excessive and our Supreme Court is going to hear the case. Are you kidding me? (But anyway, does the Court even have credibility anymore?)
What kind of values does Exxon Mobil support? Clearly, they care only about one thing, the bottom line. And that's fine, they're a business and I guess that's what they're all about. But when we end up having to pay for their mistakes, that's where you have to draw the line.
They argue that the fine is a "punishment" to them? Yeah, no fucking doubt it is. Do they not deserve to be punished for running a tanker filled with oil aground? When you earn close to $11 billion a quarter you still want to fight a $2.5 billion fine for creating the worst environmental disaster in history? They say it's the responsibility of the captain... well they were employing that captain. They hired him. He's their responsibility.
They are fighting having to pay less than a month's worth of net profits out after creating the single largest man made environmental disaster at sea... ever.
You pay them money everyday at the pump. What are they doing with those profits? Perhaps they should clean up the environment they are doing so much to foul. Right now there's an even larger spill that Exxon is responsible for in Brooklyn, NY. And guess what, they're fighting that too.
Fuck Exxon. How about stepping up and taking responsibility? Pay up and shut up. Fighting this for ten years is an insult to every American who drops coins in your coffer everyday.
Now back to your regularly scheduled good natured blogging. Oh, and good morning.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
First of all, let's give it up for WCG. It's not often that you get to see a stock go from $125 to $22 in 4 trading days.
And yes, I lost a little money in it today.
Today was an odd day. For the first time in a long while, I didn't mess with the open. I had no feelings about which way stocks "should" be going and I had no confidence that if I bought something it would go up or that if I sold something, it would go down. So I just sat around, getting "yellow."
I finally made some trades and promptly lost money. The main culprit was CF. I lost good money on both the long side and the short side.
After blowing through $500 in him, I decided to trade with only 100 and 200 share lots for the rest of the day. Everyone on Wallstreak was complaining about the day and it just felt mushy out there. So I made a bunch of small trades and basically churned water.
The most exciting thing that happened during the day was when I brought my lunch up to my desk. I made myself a big bowl of pasta. Just as I went to put it on my desk, it slipped out of my hand and the whole damn thing landed on my tatami rug. Marinara sauce and tatami does not mix. Now I need to buy a rug to put over my other rug. Cleaning up kept me busy for the middle of the day.
Then, finally some action as DRYS seriously, "shit the shower."
I made a couple of unprofitable long trades in DRYS. However, because of it's weakness I short both DSX and ANW. I covered both early but made enough in both trades to completely turn my day around. At 3pm I was down $400 or so. In that last hour I managed to make back all my losses and turn a profit.
Tomorrow will be interesting. Everyone seems to think they're going to cut 25bp and that will make the market rally. Normally, when everyone thinks the same thing the market chooses to do something different. Remember, the market loves to disappoint.
It's late. Here's the stats:
Best, DSX, $810
Worst, CF, -$485
35,400 shares traded.
21 stocks traded, 9 winners, 12 losers.
Akalawoo, $1288 on 19 contracts traded.
Me, $583 on 35,400 shares traded.
OBAT, -$18 on 19,400 shares traded.
Denarii, -$37 on 1400 shares traded.
Tapeworm, -$130 on 4 contracts traded.
Wow... the day was boring... boring... boring... and then WHAMMO! Look out below! A selloff sparked by the recently hot shipping sector sunk the market late in the day.
Volume was like yesterday, shitty. We traded just over 1.2 billion shares on the NYSE.
I mean, what's to say? We're all waiting on the FED now. Tomorrow has the potential to be a wild day however, it may be the kind of "wild" that is not good for trading. What we need is a strong move in one direction or the other. FED days generally feature strong moves in both directions in quick succession. Makes it tough.
Anyway, we'll see. Sleep well tonight!
Meanwhile, it looks like half the VO took off today...
And in time they will realize that 1x1 bids and asks that update 10 times per second isn't a good idea either... here's the article from the WSJ.
And Mr. Neiderhaur, this quote kind of bugged me... "The market structure we've ended up with is great for trading, but it's not great for investing." I don't know one trader who prefers the hybrid to the old way of trading.
So I'd like to change your quote to "The market structure we've ended up with isn't great for trading, and it's not great for investing.... so we kind of fucked up there."
I haven't posted a vocabulary word in awhile... This from Webster's New World Dictionary.
Panspermia n. a theory holding that the seeds of life diffuse naturally through outer space.
I'm not quite sure how to use it in a sentence. Perhaps something like the following would work:
"I don't know where Dick Cheney came from. But maybe the theory of "panspermia" is true and he flew in on some asteroid from some far off galaxy where the people suck."
There are a lot of good ones today.
Here's a short list of the ones I'll be watching.
AXS, CF, SOHU, SPN, VMC, AG, BEC, MGM, PMI, X, UA, VNO
Still, like I said yesterday, I think action will be crimped ahead of the looming FED meeting tomorrow and the jobs data on Friday.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Let's come up with some fun nicknames for SWC now that it's over $11 again.
In trading rooms, it goes like this. You substitute a word for each letter of the symbol. So, taking a stab, SWC could be "Sucking Wookie Cock" or something like that (stock nicknames often err on the side of offensive).
I got a flat tire this weekend. The market got a flat tire today. We barely nudged over 1.2 billion shares traded on the NYSE.
It was quiet out there in most stocks. However, the leadership of this market continued to motor along as the solars, shippers and fertilizers all ran higher.
My best stock of the day was DE, which I shorted around 10:00am. Funny that I managed to make money on the short side today in this stock when it closed up over 5 points.
My other best stock was WCG which I bought 100 shares of right after the open and sold about 3 minutes later after it ran up almost 2 points.
Other than that, nada.
I took my car into the garage to patch the tire, took a walk in town with my daughter and then read her a bunch of books while Judy argued with "customer service" idiots all day.
Hopefully tomorrow will be more interesting although I kind of doubt it. After the FED surprised everyone in September I think people are being very cautious ahead of this meeting.
Here's the stats:
Best, DE, $184
Worst, POT, -$80
8400 shares traded.
10 stocks traded, 8 winners, 2 losers.
Stewie, $3300 on 9000 shares traded.
Evolution, $427 on 32,000 shares traded.
Me, $372 on 8400 shares traded.
OBAT, -$12 on 13,200 shares traded.
Denarii, -$48 on 3200 shares traded.
Tapeworm, -$110 on 4 contracts traded.
Akalawoo, -$174 on 7 contracts traded.
Dehtrader, -$310 on 2900 shares traded.
After a string of days where we traded decent volume on the NYSE, we're back to quiet times. A lot of that has to do with the FED meeting on Wednesday, but still, we may not even see 1.2 billion shares traded today.
I've been talking here about the dwindling volume on the NYSE for months. Apparently, the NY Post finally took notice. And if the Post took notice, you can expect the new FOX Business Network to take notice as well... once they get involved, CNBC will too. This story will only grow.
Dinosaur Trader had it first... way back in March. The new price on this blog is $3 million.
Anyway, it was a quiet day for me but as "Sloth" over at Wallstreak said, there were still lots of stocks moving. The solars, the shippers, the fertilizers... check those sectors if you want to see some impressive strength.
Meanwhile, crude oil is up at $93.54. Wow.
I expect tomorrow will be slow as well. It's all about Wednesday at this point.
UPDATE: Blood on Bubs Street. See what happens when you quit the VO? And I bet he hasn't gotten laid either.
"Yes," according to this article in the NY Post this weekend.
Rapidly losing market share doesn't seem to be a recipe for success. Perhaps the NYSE will listen more to traders next time and less to their institutional interests. I've never been able to figure out who the Hybrid system benefits.
Clearly, not traders... the people who use the system, so no big surprise that it's failing.
What say you, Ray?
Also... thanks to "Chris" for bringing this to my attention. I appreciate it very much when readers point out items like this. I'm a one-man show here and often, things slip through the cracks. My email is located in my profile page and you're always welcome to contact me with things you think I might find interesting.
(Meanwhile, my criticism of the hybrid model has been consistent from the beginning. In fact, it's why I even began this blog. You can real all of my posts dealing with the hybrid market here and here.)
Not much fun out there today. Click here for a full list. (Meanwhile, if anyone knows a blogger who reports exhaustive lists of stocks reporting earnings, let me know. I'd much rather link to a blogger than to Briefing.)
I think what I'll be doing is watching CF and AG pretty intensely. They both report earnings tomorrow and they're both in hot, volatile sectors. They could be fun to trade before they report.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
I was listening to a song today in which the singer describes a golden ring sinking in a river. He looks into the river and watches as the ring gets stuck in the "murk" at the bottom.
At that moment, all I could think was how odd it is that "Merck" named themselves "Murk." Didn't the marketing department catch that? You'd think they'd look out for negative homonyms... Another one is the Nissan Murano. I always think "Morono" when I see someone driving one. What kind of name is that?
Can you think of any others?
UPDATE: I just thought of another... The Gap. I only thought of them after reading this disturbing article about 10 year olds in India making their clothes for no pay. Trading Goddess should like that one.
Friday, October 26, 2007
I was going to take the wind out of Ragin's sails by posting the picture that I'll be using as my avatar next week, but it's just too awful. So it's Halloween weekend, I figured I'd post a topical picture instead.
Bats are amazing creatures that deserve your respect and protection. Perhaps I'll write a post about them in the future. For now, enjoy that "grade-schoolesque" picture of that brown bat and click the link to learn more.
Okay, so you know the drill. Comment away. Spam me with your blog address whatever... just leave something interesting in the comment section for all to enjoy. Did you have a really good week? Tell us, we're all ears. Maybe your neighborhood caught fire... give us some idea of what that's like. Evacuee? Have a lot of time on your hands? Have at it...
Enjoy the weekend.
UPDATE: For "Noisy" trapped in some warehouse, here's my favorite Yo La Tengo song of all time.
Seriously, you'd think that after trading for 9 years that I could hold some bigger positions. Normally, when I get involved with a larger position I mess it up. Case in point today, DSX.
I learned that this stock wasn't going to go down with the rest of the shippers the hard way, by shorting it and losing money. This gave me a new idea... "hey, maybe there's strength in this stock." Clearly, it didn't want to go down. So I started buying at around $41. I bought 2500 shares.
I held the stock as it dropped below my purchase price. Each time it did this, my P&L would dip below $1000, making it impossible for me to place new trades because of my self-imposed loss limit. So basically, if I wanted to continue trading, it was all about DSX going up.
The problem is that once the stock got up to $41.25, I was down only $500 on the day and decided to sell most of my position so that I wouldn't have to be dependent on only it for the rest of my day. I sold 2000 of my 2500 shares and watched as the stock went up another point.
So I need to work on this... holding winners. Unique problem, right?
I had a nice turn around though. I caught the moves in PMI, FED and ABK though with small positions and managed to bring myself back positive on the day. At one point, I got all the way up to $1400 but then I started giving back and decided to call it a day.
My worst stock of the day was WCG. What can I say, I'm an idiot.
However, I did do something different today which definitely showed a little "growth" or "discipline" or something. Remember last week when the market gapped higher I got smoked and I said I always lose money when the market gaps up at the open? Well, I remembered that today and didn't screw it up too badly. Lesson learned.
Anyway, considering that I was down a bunch today and clawed back into the green, after my huge giveback yesterday, would look kind of like a "V" bottom on a graph. That's bullish and I'll take it.
Enjoy the weekend.
Here's the stats:
Best, PMI, $537
Worst, WCG, -$393
63,000 shares traded.
28 stocks traded. 12 winners, 16 losers.
Stewie, $1000 on 22,000 shares traded.
Me, $796 on 63,000 shares traded.
Tapeworm, $180 on 6 contracts traded.
Akalawoo, $158 on 1 contract traded.
Denarii, $117 on 2200 shares traded.
Evolution, $29 on 75,600 shares traded.
OBAT, -$165 on 12,400 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$400 on 4300 shares traded.
So the Dow closes up over 100 points and I lose a minor bet. No big deal. As I explained to Ragin Gayjun, losing a bet to a deep fry chef who lives in a FEMA trailer in New Orleans is really the least of my troubles.
And besides, my revenge, when it comes, will be sweet.
Meanwhile, it was a pretty good day for the VO. Nearly everyone cashed in and those who finished red didn't get slaughtered or anything. Not a bad way to go into the weekend.
While I'm upset that volatility dropped significantly today, at least we had some decent volume. We managed to trade 1,406,124,000 shares on the NYSE today.
It's hard to know what people expect to happen next week. Clearly, everyone expects a cut... whether we get 25 or 50 seems to be the main debate. This run up into the meeting could create some volatility for next week as well. Very welcome indeed. Let's close the month strong.
Enjoy your weekend. I'll have an open thread up with a surprise photo. Please stop by to share stories of your weekend escapades. Really, I want to know.
That's right... it's Halloween... big holiday when you have a kid.
So everything will be late. My apologies... whatever.
Don't forget to stop by this weekend and get involved in some conversation. Also, if you haven't already, go take the personality test. Let us know what type of psychopath you are.
Meanwhile, as for the "deathmatch," as I type this, the Dow is up 119 so I would lose.
Time will tell.
Still, feel free to provide me with some possible pictures to use as Ragin's icon.
UPDATE: As I'm getting ready to leave I see the Dow is back below 100... it's 3:23 and up 93.64. Nice. Get those picture ideas in the comment section. I need one for Ragin and one for Sloth.
Posted by Dinosaur Trader at 2:31 PM
Should the market close up over 100 points, he can change my icon over at Wallstreak for one week. Should the market close up less than 100 points up, I can change his icon.
When asked why he thinks the market is going higher today he said something about "a woman's intuition."
One out of three people believe in ghosts.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that these are the same people who think Iraq had something to do with 9/11.
Actually, I have an interesting post about ghosts, specifically an "Indian Princess" that I will try to unleash on Halloween.
Not that I believe in ghosts...
Here's an article from Businessweek that pretty much says that fine blogs like this one are bound to be scooped up by the MSM soon. (h/t artha)
Let it be known that I will never sell out. Except for $2million USD and health benefits.
Meanwhile, "4th-tier blogs" will never be purchased.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
I don't even really want to write about my day right now but I'm forcing myself to because it's important to not let little things like losing massive amounts of money effect you too much.
I'll start by saying that when ANW traded $43.50 today, I had 2000 shares long and was up over $4000. I guess that was around 10:15 or so... so I was feeling pretty good. I mean, I made good money yesterday and surfed. Then, I woke up this morning, surfed, got to my desk at 9:25 and in less than an hour had made $4000 more. What's better than that?
That it closed down below $38 means that my day could have been much worse had I held it or bought more but that doesn't make me feel much better.
It's easy to look at the graph now and kick myself for being a little stubborn. I mean, the stock was down over 4 points with oil rallying like mad and the other shippers turning positive. I figured it had more to retrace. I at least thought that if it didn't retrace fully that $43 was a "safe area" for the stock to chill out at for awhile.
Wrong. I exited most of my position around $42. I had gains in the stock, but a fraction of where I was. Most of my "giveback" came in not realizing profits in this name. Probably $3000 of the $5000 I gave back.
Then, I started to play around with WCG. (To borrow a phrase from "the Fly," "Odd, no?") And yes, that graph is scaled properly... the stock gapped down 70 points or so...
So, mistake #2. After giving back loads of paper gains in one stock, I began dabbling in a stock that may be engaged in fraud. And I lost 2.5 points faster than you can say "Lester, The Wombat Of Stock Market Volatility." I bought at $50 and sold at $47.50.
I bought back at $55. I sold some at $59.50 and the rest at $50. Later, I churned the stock with 100 and 200 share positions and lost a couple hundred dollars more. It wasn't my worst stock of the day, but I lost a good amount it him, $550.
What else happened? My day had so many twists and turns that it's hard to remember... oh yes, the 1pm POT conference call bonanza.
First I short POT, up near $111 and quickly lost a point or so...
And then MOS, only I lost more here because I traded it with larger size because it felt "safer." It wasn't.
Basically, I didn't make many good trades at all after the ANW reversed on me. I stopped trading for awhile when my P&L was around $600 and I thought of calling it a day. However, I didn't because ANW called to me again. Needless to say, I lost more there.
All told, I ended about $5000 lower than where I was at 10:15 when I was at my "highs," both mental and financial. I have to say that a day like this is a very interesting case study in something psychological, though I'm not sure what exactly. I experienced many different feelings today. One thing that I can learn from today is this...
When you make a lot of money, don't get too happy about it. And when you lose a lot of money, don't get too upset about it. Don't form an emotional relationship with money.
Look upon gains and losses in the market with equanimity.
That said, I still feel like jumping out the window into my rhododendrons...
Here's the damn stats:
Best, MTG, $555
Worst, RDN, -$578
80,200 shares traded.
24 stocks traded. 9 winners, 15 losers.
NOTE: I have to get my stock link code back on my website. When I was screwing with the template the other day, I accidentally erased it. Deal!
UPDATE: It's 4:50 and still no word from Stewie. Until I hear from him, Stewie and his blog suck.
Momojuicing, $4832 on 21,600 shares traded.
Evolution, $2303 on 60,000 shares traded.
Stewie, $1200 on 35,000 shares traded.
OBAT, $572 on 8400 shares traded.
Akalawoo, $276 on 3 contracts traded.
Denarii, -$8 on 2200 shares traded.
Tapeworm, -$155 on 6 contracts traded.
Me, -$772 on 80,200 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$931 on 11,300 shares traded.
Wow, what a day! The Wombat Of Stock Market Volatility was out in full force today as individual stocks jumped around like an innocent college student getting tasered.
Okay, that was in poor taste but I'm in a horrid mood.
And, with the volatility came some volume again. While it's still not great, I've come to appreciate any day we trade over 1.5 billion shares on the NYSE. Actually, it's amazing given some of the news out there that we only traded that much. But this is the new reality at the NYSE.
So the big news in the VO is that we added a fresh face, Stewie, into the mix. While Stewie is more of a swing trader than a daytrader he'll be posting his numbers here daily. Why anyone throws themselves willingly into the "pressure cooker" otherwise known as the VO is beyond me.
I'm trying to be in a good mood right now but the fact of the matter is that I feel like jumping out my second story window and landing in my deer-eaten rhododendron patch below... I guess it's time to get working of my daily post to purge myself of my pent up anger.
UPDATE: It's 4:10 and I have yet to hear from Stewie... this does not bode well for our "VO relationship."
UPDATE II: Evidently and "email issue." I take back what I said about Stewie. He's a great guy and his blog is "engrossing."
Will this chart...
Look like this chart soon?
Could be. However I won't be profiting from the move since I GOT STOPPED OUT OF MY FED SHORT AT $55!!!! I suck at "swing trading." Perhaps Stewie can teach me something.
That's right. Just when you thought the VO couldn't get any "bigger" there we go with another expansion.
While some of you may not know Stewie, he's famous over at Wallstreak where he routinely makes gobs of money while scaring bears out of the market. And I'd link to Wallstreak, but that would probably crash it's servers...
He has a no-frills type blog where he discusses his trades, discusses what it's like to have a football-shaped head, and explains that the market will continue to go up, forever.
Go check it out.
Meanwhile, I also want to extend the invitation to any traders out there who want to share their P&L via the comments section. I know there's that idiotic P&L thread over at "elitetrader" (where I refuse to link) but really, who wants to read through that crap!
It's much more fun here. Tell all your friends.
I had such a great morning surfing, and was feeling so "amped" (to use the slang that "the kids" use) that I came in planning to post this song right away.
Then, I started trading and I realized the song was perfect for today's trade as well. As Momo said over on his site, today is "one of those days" where you can either make a lot, or lose a lot. And already, at 11:13, I've done both.
I'm not particularly happy about it by the way, as I'm currently at the low end of my range. And I'm also "out of the market" suddenly. Like, I've lost the "electricity" needed to trade right now.
When you're in a fast market and then get out, it's sometimes hard to get back in.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
He will never be elected in our wonderful country. 54% of 37 readers of this fine blog think him unworthy.
So again, it's a landslide. Hopefully he finds this poll and drops out before things get too embarrassing for him down in S.C.
For the record, I would vote for him.
Today was not without it's dark moments, but in the end everything was great.
It started well, as I caught some nice short moves in the shipping stocks, most notably, DSX and ANW. I also made some money on the long side, in BEN.
But my favorite trade of the day came around 11:00 when MER ripped off the lows and I shorted it, right in front of a price I had written down this morning, $64.58.
I rode it down below $63 and covered, pulling in a little over $400 in the stock. What made me happy about the trade is that I almost felt like I had a "plan" when I made the trade. I don't normally trade with a "plan." In fact, I'm not really sure exactly how I trade, I think I've said that before.
Anyway, so I was up around $2,000 around 11 and I just really chilled out. I barely traded.
However, just after 2pm, it was very obvious that a real big buyer stepped into the market.
Normally, I'm pretty cautious when it comes to buying a market that I'm pretty bearish about when it's down close to 200 points, but not today. I stepped in and started buying stocks left and right. There was just a "feel" to the move in the futures that let me know it was the real deal. This is when things got interesting.
On Wednesday's, Judy teaches a "toddler yoga" class. As you know, our daughter has an ear infection and she was up ALL NIGHT last night. Normally, that's bad, but today it kind of worked in our favor because it meant that she would take an "intraday nap." (If you recall, last week on Wednesday I was watching Mary Poppins with my daughter and mother-in-law while trading... that was tough.) So today, I thought I was in the clear.
But she woke up around 2:15, just when I had loaded up and was carrying close to 10k shares of positions. Judy wasn't due home for another 20 minutes.
Normally, my daughter loves me. But when she's sick, she hates everyone except Judy.
So when I ran into her room and scooped her up out of bed, she was screaming for "MAMA! MAMA!" Since you can't really explain to a sick 3 year old that "Daddy is up to his neck in longs so you need to chill out" I didn't even bother. Instead, she sat on my lap screaming while I watched the market chop down... those 2 red bars at around 2:20 were unbelievably stressful for me.
Luckily, the market turned north again and I didn't have to do too much with my positions. Unfortunately, I couldn't do much to please my daughter either so she screamed until Judy came home while the market ripped higher.
Since today was bound to be a good day, the lord of the seas also graced us with some nice waves and a mild offshore breeze. Surf was better than it's been in weeks. I split right after work and head for the beach where I surfed until it was dark out. I will be there for sunrise as well... if it's really good, I may just stay there. We'll see.
Anyway, here's the stats:
Best, ANW, $1707
Worst, BIDU, -$344
92,000 shares traded.
39 stocks traded. 22 winners, 17 losers.
Me, $4302 on 92,000 shares traded.
Evolution, $2485 on 49,200 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $645 on 7700 shares traded.
Akalawoo, $442 on 4 contracts traded.
OBAT, $300 on 10,200 shares traded.
Momojuicing, $119 on 11,000 shares traded.
Tapeworm, no trades.
Denarii, -$1486 on 3400 shares traded.
Well, it was a wild one. We got the VIX back over 24 at one point today (though it closed below 21) and we finally got some respectable volume as we nearly traded 1.6 billion shares today on the NYSE.
Overall for the VO it was a good day, although Denarii pulled a Dinosaur and got a little smoked when everyone else did well. It really sucks, and I feel for him. I mean that seriously too, despite the fact that I'm almost always sarcastic.
Meanwhile, I want to point out one of the newer members of the VO, Akalawoo and his consistency. I don't know what the heck he's doing over there in Singapore, something with "strangles" I dunno, but he makes money everyday. Go visit his site. If you can figure it out, please tell me what it is. The most disturbing thing about Akalawoo is that I don't even think this is a full time job for him. I think he's a freaking student somewhere. Damn youth.
I also want to point out that Momojuicing blew chunks today.
Moving on, I can only hope that this type of crazy trading continues. We have a few days left in October and a few days left until the next FED meeting. Let's hope those days are filled with unsettling news and mini-panics, punctuated by rumors of the "Goldilocks economy" lasting forever.
Meanwhile, sorry that the "stats" are so late. Apparently for many of you the VO is the highlight of your day. All I have to say is I love it when "the masses" get all desperate. Remember, only 1% of you are more dominant than me... it only makes me stronger to have a bunch of submissives begging me to do something.
Finally, tomorrow we will have a new member of the VO. Someone who many of you know and love.
Since we're in the midst of a midday churn, I'll share a little story with you people... this happened about a week ago. Just when we were getting ready to have that garage sale I whined about.
Anyway, after getting smoked a couple of Fridays ago, I decided to go surfing, bad back and all.
The waves were still of decent size, maybe a 3 foot swell, but crosswinds were making them messy and very difficult to read. It was one of those days where it was hard to look good out there. The good news is that somehow, my back held up and has been 90% okay since. Perhaps all the surfing has strengthened it and my back problems will be less chronic now.
So when I got home, I had no excuse but to start bringing stuff out to the garage for the garage sale.
While I was doing so a mini-van slowly passed my house. The driver just stared at me, while rolling by at 5 mph. That was odd, I thought. A minute later, the same van rolled up (coming from the other direction) and parked at the base of my driveway.
A small man with thick, round eyeglasses hopped out of the van. He began speaking the moment his shoes hit my driveway.
"Got any antiques?" he chirped.
"No, and the garage sale isn't until tomorrow."
"Yeah, I figured... didn't see any mention of antiques in your ad. Sorry to come a day early, it's just my wife is really aggressive with these things."
I looked past him towards the van. I didn't see his wife there. The next thing I knew he was saying, "Dan Myers" and holding out his hand to be shaken. He then said, "Well, let me give you one of these" and gave me a very ornate business card.
Then he was gone... back into the minivan, speeding down the street.
I threw out his business card and went back to arranging the piles of crap we had in the garage. Judy pulled into the driveway. She opened the door and before she even got out said, "Mrs. Murphy has a dead possum. I told her you'd go over and get rid of it."
"What the hell? Can't she call animal control or something?"
"She's afraid of everyone... you know that. Just go over there."
I threw a pink stuffed rabbit onto a pile of other pink stuffed animals and walked down the driveway towards our neighbor's house, shovel in hand.
Mrs. Murphy has lived in our development for over 50 years. Her house was one of the first built here. As she has needed money, she's slowly sold off some of the land that surrounds her house and more houses filled with younger families have sprung up all around hers. Her house is in a state of disrepair but even though she's in her 80s, she refuses to hire landscaping people to come and cut her lawn or take her leaves. I rarely see her and her car never moves. One day she's going to die and no one will know for weeks. Anyway, Judy has gotten to know her because she routinely walks with our daughter past her house and I guess Mrs. Murphy found some comfort in their routine.
Before I even had a chance to knock, Mrs Murphy's front door swung open. The odor of moth balls collided with the fresh air I had been breathing and I had to catch myself in order not to wince.
"I heard this racket last night..." she started, "and then I woke this morning and found a dead possum on my lawn. His belly is ripped open. He's right over there."
Sure enough, a dead possum lay 30 feet away it's face locked in an awful grimace. Whatever killed it (another possum, a raccoon?) had done so with great brutality.
I tried to scoop the thing up on my shovel but it wouldn't sit right. A school bus pulled up across the street. Two young kids, the Harvey boys, got off and were immediately attracted to the dead animal, "Cooool!" one of them exclaimed. Now I had an audience. Although Mrs. Murphy skulked back into her home and closed the door.
The Harvey's had moved in recently into one of the new houses built on Mrs, Murphy's old property. Their parents let the boys wander all around the neighborhood unattended. Once, the kids came to our house to try and sell us a broken guitar. When I refused on account of it being broken, they told me it would make a nice decoration. They were persistent little kids and I knew they weren't going to leave me alone to bury the possum.
"I want the skull!" one of them said.
"Well, you're not getting the skull. I'm burying this thing whole" I snapped back.
I tried again to scoop the possum up onto the shovel so I could move it to a good location for burial. When I moved it, a whiff of death wafted from the moist underparts of the animal. The boys screamed. "NASTY! That's SO NASTY!" But the possum still wouldn't rest on the shovel.
"Get a stick or something and help me push the possum onto the shovel," I instructed.
The braver of the two brothers picked up a stick and poked and the animal. "Oh, NASTY! Check out it's tongue!" he said and tried to mash the stick into the possums mouth.
"Seriously, man... let's not play with this thing. I just want to get it buried." But the kid wasn't listening to me. He was now poking the possum's eyes. This was getting gruesome.
Just then, Mrs. Murphy swung open one of her heavy drapes and peered her bug eyes out a dirty window at the boys on the lawn who were busy probing the possum. She was wearing this crazy looking afghan. When they saw her looking out at them, they ran off, throwing their bejuiced sticks down on the lawn. I looked back towards Mrs. Murphy and she gave me a wink.
I got the possum on a shovel and buried it in her backyard. Head intact.
Okay, now the market can go back to the lows...
NOTE: Everything will be late tonight... the VO, the daily post. I'm going surfing.
Apparently, he doesn't fuck around.
NOTE: This "segment" on CNBC, the "White House Summit with Dylan Ratigan" has to be one of the worst examples of "journalism" I've seen in a long time. How many times have they said that we shouldn't raise taxes? Hey! Let's just broadcast the entire channel out of the White House CNBC! Way to challenge those guys, Dylan! If I wanted to be spun all day, I'd start taking drugs.
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Not really, it's an external link to "the Spark" or something like that.
Look, I'm feeling introspective tonight after my staggering market loss. I want to know more about "you people." Also, I'll be surfing early and won't have a morning post up. This will have to do.
So take the test and tell the world what your personality "flaw" is, in the comment section.
It takes about 7 or 8 minutes to take the test. First, you have to sign up for an account... they want your email but you can opt out of getting bothered. The thing is, if you take the test and complete it, you can check at the end to see how compatible you are with other people who took it. So, if you want other people here to know how compatible they are with you, write the email address that you gave to "the Spark" in the comment section along with your test results.
Most of the time, I hate people... let's see if I hate you too.
Just follow along with the first comment... which I will post.
Click here to take the test.
UPDATE: I'm 35% greedy.
UPDATE II: I'll live to age 73.
With only 20 hours left to vote, my poll is showing it to be a dead heat.
Maybe you think having a poll about Stephen Colbert's chances at winning the presidency is stupid. Maybe you're thinking to yourself, "Man, that DT is a nitwit."
Fine, but is THE WASHINGTON POST a "nitwit" too then?
They ran a poll to see what his chances really were. Currently, among Democratic voters, he's at around 2%. Republican voters favor him less, at only about 1%. However, I think that the Republicans probably just don't know who the heck he is.
As you know, Republicans are old and out of touch.
Anyway, here's a link to the Washington Post poll.
With that said, go vote on our poll now. "Would You Vote For Stephen Colbert For President?"
Wow, I really, really, sucked today.
I trade actively in the first hour of trade. When that first hour is without good action, it normally means my whole day will blow. Today is the perfect example of the type of morning I should avoid trading the open though. A gap up morning.
More often than not, I find when the market gaps up a lot that it tends to flatline for awhile in order to digest its gains. So if you buy a lot of stuff at the open, you lose 10 cents, 25 cents, over and over again. I think in the future I'll try to have a little more discipline on these mornings, let the market gap up, digest and then try to buy when stocks break out after digestion.
So I lost a lot early. I knew my day was over at 10:45 when I made a nasty revenge trade in RDN.
It was actually one of my better stocks of the morning as I caught the short. But then I got short again, around $14. I short 1000 shares and got stopped out at $14.20 or, the high of the move. Next thing I know, it's back to $14. So what do I do? I short 2000 shares. When it dropped below the figure, I added, forgetting that the stock was worth only $14... I mean, how much did I think it was going to drop? Why add? So many mistakes. Anyway, It bounced and came up to $14 again, where I added more shares. I got out of all of the shares for a nasty loss at around 11:30 or, the high of the move and managed to lose $200 in a stock that I was up close to $1000 in earlier in the day.
I'm not even going to get into the latino banks. They all got me.
Anyway, my daughter just woke from her nap with a fever and a stuffed nose. Most likely an ear infection. Needless to say, I'm suddenly very busy.
Here's the stats:
Best, DSX, $352
Worst, TBSI, -$345
71,800 shares traded.
32 stocks traded, 10 winners, 22 losers.
Momojuicing, $5199 on 21,000 shares traded.
Akalawoo, $1496 on 17 contracts traded.
Dehtrader, $1112 on 9300 shares traded.
Evolution, $608 on 48,600 shares traded.
OBAT, $95 on 5800 shares traded.
Misstrade, $0 on 1000 shares traded.
Denarii, -$25 on 2400 shares traded.
Tapeworm, -$255 on 6 contracts traded.
Me, -$2115 on 71,800 shares traded.
Well, look at that, Momo saved the VO. I was all set to sink the ship today and the mofo makes a trade in RIMM to salvage some respectability for the "office." Well done. In fact, most of the office did quite well today. A bunch of very nice numbers. You know how it feels to be on the bottom of the VO when everyone else "banks coin?" It feels like shit.
Anyway, so much for the goddamn Wombat. While there was a small pickup in volatility between 10:30 and 11:00 it quickly died and fizzled out. Volume blew today... but I mean, I guess nowadays I'm happy if it's over 1.3 billion. That's what we do now on the NYSE.
Another huge earnings day tomorrow. FCX reports. That could be fun.
I'm in a bad mood and my daughter has an ear infection. All hell is breaking loose.
Specifically, the stock market.
Even more specifically, the latin bank stocks, ITU, BBD, BBV and UBB. I've lost over $1000 trading these fuckers today. About $250 in each, so they suck equally.
Currently, I'm in liquidation-only mode as this market has been chopping me up all day.
Tomorrow there's suppossed to be beautiful surf. I may just take a mental health day.
There are loads today. You can check this link for the whole list.
I'll be focusing on ALB, RE, PRE, CNH and PCP.
Also, I got an interesting email from "bloggerdotcom" today about profiting from the huge fire that is melting southern California. Considering that Bluedog and Danny are from SoCal, perhaps they can give us some information on which insurers we should be shorting here.
Or is that completely tasteless?
Meanwhile, R.I.P Clarence.
How does the "Lester, the Hairy-Nosed Wombat of Stock Market Volatility" roll off the tongue?
Monday, October 22, 2007
I was all ready today to short the shit out of the market... luckily for me, I didn't. Otherwise I would have been demolished.
Still, I tried. For my efforts I lost $1000 between 2pm and 3pm, when the market was actually going down... that's when I decided to stop trading for the day, so I missed the rally from 3pm to 4pm. Frustrating way to end the day...
Anyway, I made almost all of my money getting long the shippers today. EXM, DSX, ANW. I mean, it's hard to be happy about it though. Take a look at DRYS. I feel like I let my bearishness really mess with my trading today... I didn't size up at all in these trades.
The stock bounced from $103 up to $120. Moves like that are "month-makers." Instead, I pulled $200 out of the stock. Depressing.
I'm not going to whine about how much money I should have made today. That's bad form. I'll take my gains and keep trying for another big day soon. My confidence is building again... that's normally a good thing.
Anyway, AAPL just reported and the stock is surging afterhours. Is this market going to go right back up again? What about the SIVs? Turkey and Iraq? Bob Dylan doing a Cadillac advertisement... doesn't this stuff bode poorly for the overall health of the world?
Looks like stock market stability for now.
Here's the stats:
Best, EXM, $545
Worst, UBB, -$552
64,000 shares traded.
30 stocks traded, 18 winners, 12 losers.
Bubs, $2,312,454 on 872,300 shares traded.
Me, $1533 on 64,000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $1359 on 7800 shares traded.
Evolution, $1116 on 57,600 shares traded.
Momojuicing, $488 on 3000 shares traded.
Denarii, $215 on 4000 shares traded.
Tapeworm, $140 on 4 contracts traded.
Akalawoo, no trades... lots of "staring."
OBAT, -$335 on 7600 shares traded.
Clearly, the veracity of Bubs final posting here in the VO will be some manner of controversy until the end of time... or at least until this blog ceases to be. As he put it when he was leaving, "I'm going out on top, bitch!"
Meanwhile, after the much talked about volatility didn't show up today at the open, I had a difficult conversation with Clarence, "the rodent of stock market volatility." I was like, "What's up? Where the hell is the volume, the volatility?" But it was clear that Clarence was already far away...
Rumors are swirling here at the VO. I've heard from a good source, OBAT, that Bubs got Clarence addicted to Macadamia nuts. Next thing I know, the stock market volatility is gone and with it, Clarence and Bubs... his dealer.
However, as sad as this is we welcome back an old friend to the VO, Dehtrader.
Dehtrader actually emailed me with a tip about the Macadamia nut thing a few weeks back after a post I wrote discussing the lack of volume in the market. He said that he wanted to be back in the VO but couldn't be "part of an organization that felt it was okay to addict impressionable young rodents to Macadamia nuts."
With the departure of Bubs and Clarence, the door was open to invite Dehtrader back in... he "gleefully" accepted.
But back to business. The VO had a pretty darn good day. Almost everyone made money. The one outlier, OBAT, was apparently so distraught by the shake-ups in the VO that he had a hard time focusing on the market. He took a half day.
Should be a very interesting week. I need to find a new mascot of volatility because days like today just aren't going to cut it long term...
Maria Bartiromo: (with a real sense of urgency in her voice...)"Dylan, looks what's crossing the wires right now (3:40)... we have some imbalances... we'll tell you all about them when we come back."
Again. Will someone please explain to Mrs. Bartiromo that everyday there are (gasp!) imbalances that cross the wires at 3:40 and that they're not newsworthy unless you want to overuse the word "imbalance" to throw the newbies off.
UPDATE: Art Cashin diplomatically explained that the MOC imbalances really had nothing to do with the end of the day move. Instead, he said the market rallied simply because the bears couldn't take it any lower. AC is one of the only worthwhile commentators on CNBC.
It involves Bubs... and Clarence, "the rodent of stock market volatility." They have disappeared together.
UPDATE: I found a letter from Bubs. It looks like he is leaving the VO. He is moving with Clarence to "Appalachia" where their "way of life" will not be "placed under a microscope."
Folks, this is as shocking to me as it must be for you... frankly, I'm a little speechless.
Phone ringing... it's Dehtrader. I'll be back shortly.
UPDATE II: Dehtrader is back in the VO. He said after hearing about Bubs and Clarence that he "had to do something."
Also, Clarence "the rodent of stock market volatility" has been fired as he failed to produce the necessary volatility this morning. I will find a new mascot for market volatility. Please submit your ideas via the comment section.
No stocks I love to trade are reporting today.
Here's a list of some that could move.
ASTE, AUO, BOH, CHKP, ECL, GNTX, HAL, HAS, JAKK, KMB, MRK, PVTB, RGS, RCL, SGP, VECO, WFT.
By the way... enjoy all those links. Once I started, I just couldn't stop. Love that new widget!
Also, things heating up on the Turkish-Iraqi border.
Basically, I think the weakness in the US on Friday, the weakness overseas, the strength of the Yen (6-week high) and the Turkey-Iraqi tension will be more important than earnings reports today.
Oh, and don't forget the "Credit Crunch." Shouldn't that be the name of a cereal?