Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Space Hog, "In The Meantime"

For about 2 weeks in 1996, I couldn't get this song out of my head. Then, for the next 11 years I forgot about it. Tonight, while trying to find a song to post tonight, I remembered it. So, here it is!

Fed Up

Here's the thing. I was going to start this post like this, "Well, it was another slow summer Fed day..." or something, but that's not really the case. There was a lot of stuff moving today. I mean, just check out my first trade of the day, in LVS.

WYNN reported good numbers and LVS just forgot about the law of gravity and ripped right off the open. Of course, I missed the rip but took a look at the daily and quickly made the decision that the stock was "overdone."

So I sold short at $106. Really nice. The only problem was that I covered at $105.30. Also, since I had convinced myself that "it's a Fed day and therefore slow" I only sold 200 shares.

What I'm getting at is this. I complain all the time about people on CNBC and other news outlets saying the same crap over and over again and it just being false. However, it gains momentum and people keep saying the same crap anyway, just because it's accepted... that doesn't make it true... I mean, just take the "conventional wisdom" that got us entrenched in Iraq... "greeted as liberators," "the insurgency is in it's last throes," etc... etc... etc...

Anyway, for a recent example from the financial world, how many times have you heard the following in the last few weeks on CNBC as a partial explanation for the increase in volatility? "Lots of traders are on vacation right now so it's 'thin trading' out there which leads to greater price swings." What crap! Volume has been huge these last few weeks.

Yes, traders may be on vacation but robots never vacation... anyway, I'm getting off on a tangent. Still, while I'm on the subject of robots I will note that if I'm driving with my wife and I ask her to listen to the lyrics of a song (I'm a lyric guy) so she can tell me what she thinks the song is about, she invariably will say, "Robots." Okay, moving on...

The point is, you can take yourself out of the game by telling yourself stories that may or may not be true. I took myself out of the game in March and April by telling myself that the market was going down when all it did was go up. So, if you look at today objectively and not through the lens of it being a Fed day, it was pretty volatile and there was loads of opportunity.

Lose the story and deal with what's there in front of you.

It's pretty late, and I can no longer access all of my trades so I can't go through them here. Basically, I made money in the first half hour, lost it all in the next hour and then made it all back after 2:15. I made a good chunk in ITU at the end of the day because I noticed that it was very weak in comparison to it's brethren, BBD and UBB and I assumed with the strength in the financials he would catch up. For a while he did and I got out at good prices when I had the chance.

Hope all is well with you.

Here's the stats:

Oh wait... I can't access them. Good night!

Virtual Office, $1932. Dow, +32.84, 13501.62.

Misstrade, $973 on 1000 shares traded.
Me, $588 on 35,600 shares traded.
HPT, $300 on 74 contracts traded.
OBAT, $89 on 7000 shares traded.
Bubs, on vacation
Evolution, no trades today.
Denarii, -$18 on 1000 shares traded.

I've never understood why traders avoid options expiration days and rebalancing days and things like that. Volatility is what the trader feeds on. However, in my 8 years of trading I have never had much success of Fed days. Sure they're volatile, but it's the kind of volatility that seems to kill me. Anyway, I digress... I'll put more of that in my daily post later which, for the record, will be late today. I apologize, but until you people start to pay me you have to live by my schedule...

So it was a Fed day. And Uncle Ben did a decent job of calming people down about the mess that has been the market recently. However, I have to say I expected the market to really sell off. Why? Because they said they're still more worried about inflation than they are about economic growth stagnating. But who knows... this market is freaky.

Anyway, you'll be happy to know that your favorite blog (btw, you can "fave" me by clicking that green technorati button up at the tippy-top of the blog) finally made a list of "Top Daytrading Blogs." Ahem... #62.

I mean, it's not like being bought out by CBS for $5 million, but it's a start.

Not Feeling The Market This Morning

Well, it's a Fed day so I have the feeling things may be choppy until we hear from Uncle Ben.

I made money right off the bat and gave it away again. Frustrating, so I'm going to step away and come back with a fresh look in a little while.

Meanwhile, let's have a laugh. If you haven't seen this one, check it out. I'm sure Stewie is a fan.

The Standells, "Sometimes Good Guys Don't Wear White"

In other words, don't judge a book by it's cover... let's see if this "rally" is the real deal.

FLASH: The first ever "poll" at Dinosaur Trader closes in only 22 hours. Right now, even after yesterday's jump, the bears are in the lead. Let's see if they win!