Hey Jonathan?

FUCK YOU!

Facialmorph Slideshow Of The 44 Presidents

Slow morning. I'm thinking we have a consolidation day. I'm not going to trade much until the afternoon.

Cool video. (h/t CrooksandLiars)

More From The Good 'Ole Days

Laurie Anderson, "O Superman"

This is going to be "too much" for most of you.

The RO Report, "Epic Battle" Edition

There are some key levels right now that the bulls are defending and I have to say, after months of washouts, it's inspiring to watch.

The fact that we've had strong rallies two days in a row after the bears tried to kill strong morning moves to the upside is very good for the bulls. If I may be so bold, I'd say we have a shot at visiting the Dow 50dma sometime in the near future. Currently, that number is 9082... I'd expect heavy resistance between 8900 and 9000 though. After that, I'd be neutral until we could break higher on volume.

Anyway, enough about what I think. Opinions are fairly worthless in this market and I haven't forgotten Monday's disaster. I just like what I'm seeing and wanted to let you know, mostly because I was so bearish for so long. It's just rare for me to be positive about anything.

By nature, I'm a bit of a hater.

The RO had a solid day. It wasn't an easy day, however. It felt choppy out there and there wasn't a lot of strong conviction about what the market was going to do. I mean, I had strong conviction but my execution has been awful, so I don't count.

Out of 16 traders* today, 11 finished gross positive, or 69%. 7 traders finished up over $1,000 gross and only 2 lost more than $1,000 gross. I was #7 of 16.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader A, $18,583 on 395k shares traded.

2. Trader Z, $15,763 on 214k shares traded.
3. Trader N, $4,243 on 62,400 shares traded.
4. Trader 7, $1,596 on 14,000 shares traded.
5. Trader C, $1,441 on 120k shares traded.

"Chambermaid" - Trader R, -$2,092 on 72,600 shares traded.

2. Trader V, -$1,021 on 71,200 shares traded.
3. Trader B, -$311 on 526k shares traded.
4. Trader D, -$173 on 395k shares traded.
5. Trader 11, -$163 on 5,800 shares traded.

*Due to a technical glitch, I don't have stats for some of the traders today.

The "D-Word"

Chrysler guy gets a fail for even mentioning this...

A top Chrysler executive warned Wednesday that a carmaker collapse could send the economy spiraling into a depression, while the United Auto Workers agreed to new concessions for their companies. Jim Press, Chrysler's vice chairman, said the U.S. automakers were "down to months left," as industry officials ratcheted up a fierce lobbying push to persuade Congress to approve as much as $34 billion in emergency aid. "We're on the brink with the U.S. auto manufacturing industry," Press told The Associated Press in an interview. "If we have a catastrophic failure of one of these car companies, in this tender environment for the economy, it's a huge blow. It could trigger a depression.

Meanwhile, Ken Lewis of BAC said he sees a "ray of sunshine" shining on the economy 6 months out.

I ask you this... is it obvious who already drank from the bailout bucket and who hasn't?

The Great Depression Visits DT's House

Two years ago had I walked into the middle of my town with a bloodied Pomeranian and thrown it, I probably would have ruined a real estate broker's shirt. People who I drank with at grungy bars during my "dart phase," who were previously unkempt and dirty, suddenly cleaned themselves up and were handing me business cards and asking for referrals.

They were pretending to be "positive" and healthy. "Fuck them all," I often thought. "Fuck them all..."

Anyway, fast forward to yesterday. I'm still unkempt and dirty and trading from the spare room of my house. And, despite my attempts to follow the thoughtful advice from my therapist to "be aware of my breath," I haven't changed much. I'm staring intently at my screens and cursing myself for purchasing DLR "too early." I'm doubling my position to an uncomfortable 1200 shares when I hear a knock at the front door. No one I know comes to the front door, but we're having a new countertop installed so I figure I should answer it. One last glance at my screen tells me my most recent purchase is already unprofitable. Cursing, I turn away from my desk and walk downstairs to open the door.

I didn't recognize the woman immediately but she looked vaguely familiar. In fact, the first thing I noticed was her very expensive set of glasses (definitely 2 or 3 years old). She stammered, "Hi, DT! I know it's been awhile, but I'm cleaning houses now!" She was straining to sound positive. "I just wanted to give you my card and ask for any referrals if you know anyone in the area" (and here she turned around and looked at the house across the street and spread her arms out) "who needs their house cleaned!"

I felt immediately uncomfortable by the situation, especially once I realized that 3 years ago, this same woman had sold the house across the street for a couple million. She had been known all around my area as "the one" to call if you needed to get your house sold. And here she was trying to make $20 an hour scrubbing my toilet. But I couldn't get all empathetic, and "human" with her, I had 1200 shares of DLR working against me. I told her I'd "keep my ears open" and I closed the door to rush back to my turret.

DLR had dropped further and I sold out for a loss.

Now I had time to think about the woman some more. I wondered how she must have felt walking across my front lawn and getting into her car. I remembered a conversation I had with her a couple of years back. She had adopted a daughter from China and was asking me about saving for college. People sometimes think that because I trade stock everyday that I have some kind of knowledge about how to invest; they're wrong. I told her I hadn't the slightest idea... I just traded. She laughed and said, "Well, as long as the housing market keeps this up, I won't have to worry about it anyway!"

Things can change quickly... I thought about how desperate she must be, to be looking for a job cleaning houses from which she once made huge commissions. Then I thought with some humor about my cleaning lady, an "illegal" from Poland who had a son. I wondered if she ever thought an ex-real estate broker would be her competition.

I thought, and admittedly, this wasn't a nice thought, "Looks like Dominika is due for a pay cut." I smiled.

Suddenly, the drop in DLR made sense to me.

Where Will The Stock Market Bottom?

The results are in and 146 of you voted. Nearly 50% of you feel the market is headed to at least 6000 before we ultimately bottom.

I feel pretty good about our recent low, just around 7500. However, days like Monday make me very nervous.

Anyway, here's how you voted:

7500 16 votes or 10%.
7250 14 votes or 9%.
7000 6 votes or 4%.
6750 13 votes or 8%.
6500 17 votes or 11%.
6250 4 votes or 2%.
6000 9 votes or 13%.
sub 6000 57 votes or 39%.

Wire, "Ex-Lion Tamer"

The RO Report, "Solid Rebound" Edition

Man today's rally made me feel good. Sure, we got back less than half what we lost yesterday, but the fact that we rallied, tested "unched," and then had the power to go to new highs speaks of a new-found confidence exhibited by the bulls.

Also, volume was impressive, beating yesterday's total.

I'm a little busy tonight, so let's just get to the numbers...

Out of 24 traders today, 19 finished gross positive, or 79%. 12 traders made over $1,000 gross while 2 traders lost over $1,000 gross. Good numbers. The Bosses came roaring back today. I was #9 of 24, happy enough, but feeling as if I need to step up my game.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader Z, $30,856 on 456k shares traded.

2. Trader A, $29,259 on 381k shares traded.
3. Trader D, $22,117 on 207k shares traded.
4. Trader C, $17,627 on 251k shares traded.
5. Trader P, $17,173 on 349k shares traded.

"Chambermaid" - Trader E, -$5,479 on 68,800 shares traded.

2. Trader J, -$1,747 on 70,800 shares traded.
3. Trader 3, -$575 on 10,000 shares traded.
4. Trader H*, -$520 on 2,100 shares traded.
5. Trader N, -$102 on 1,800 shares traded.

Here is today's "heatmap."

40% Bear Market Rally In The Works?

This guy thinks so... (h/t "Trader P")

Mr. Chappy

Melamine In Baby Formula

BUMP: More is coming to light about the awful situation in China. So again, FDA, why allow ANY melamine in baby formula? This shit isn't supposed to happen here.

How about 0 parts?

I don't know a thing about baby formula or melamine (other than it kills babies or makes them sick if they get too much) but why is it acceptable to have any in baby formula?

Probably another case of industry lobbying for loose standards. But should profitability stand above the health of babies?

Anyway, here's the article about the FDA setting limits... kind of.

They're not worthy of your trust. Eat healthy and breastfeed.

So Much For "Drill Baby Drill"

Babbletron, "The Clock Song (Prod. RjD2)

Trader Z spray pick.

The RO Report, "1955" Edition

After watching that ten year plummet today to 1955 levels, I find myself getting a little obsessed with 1955. I mean, do I have to start putting grease in my hair? Is it not cool to surf? Will I never get laid again? Should I become a Dodgers fan?

Anyway, I found this interesting, although I fully admit that I'm not quite sure what it is. It seems to put a dollar amount to the Dow. In 1955, the Dow was worth $451. In November it was worth $7,997. (Perhaps he's averaging what the Dow was worth over the entire month.)

I dunno... point is, we're not yet really poor, but we're getting there.

For the majority of the trading day, the RO was really poor. And in fact, the Manservants had a great day. But I didn't even know they were dominating because I was mesmerized by the performance of "Trader Z" in the afternoon. Here's a guy who lost pretty big the last two days, came in this morning, had a massive loss, and was able to put it behind him, think clearly and execute a brilliant end of day strategy that saw him swing from -$16k to up over $30k. It's rare to see that kind of dominance over emotion in the face of such numbers.

Also, I just want to say a word concerning the large losses posted today by Trader B and Trader D. Don't just blow them off... those are big losses and I tend to think people have become somewhat immune to some of the numbers I post here. Don't get blind to the pitfalls of this job... Yes, people have made massive money these last few months, but that's because they're taking massive risk. You always have to respect the money.

Luckily, B and D are two of the best traders I know, so by the end of the month, today will probably be a footnote for them.

Anyway, out of 21 traders, 10 finished gross positive, or 48%. 8 traders made over $1,000 gross, but 10 lost over $1,000 gross. It was a tough day for counter-trend trading. I was #8 of 21.

For such an outlandish move, the volume was mediocre, although it really picked up into the close. The Manservants take it today.

"Chambermaid" - Trader D, -$74,938 on 468k shares traded.

2. Trader B, -$67,567 on 782k shares traded.
3. Trader 10*, -$8,871 on 2,200 shares traded.
4. Trader 4*, -$6,525 on 0 shares traded.
5. Trader 9*, -$6,089 on 500 shares traded.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader Z, $34,445 on 191k shares traded.

2. Trader P, $12,678 on 80,200 shares traded.
3. Trader V, $11,167 on 51,900 shares traded.
4. Trader J, $8,197 on 57,700 shares traded.
5. Trader A, $7,698 on 204k shares traded.

Here is today's final "heat map." UGLY.

Ten Year Yield Lowest Since 1955

Remarkable...



Here's some other shit that happened in 1955!

Winston Churchill resigned...

The polio vaccine was introduced...

McDonald's opened its 9th restaurant...

The Warsaw Pact was signed...

Disneyland opened...

Lolita was published...

Rosa Parks was arrested for refusing to give up her seat on the bus to a white person...

Don't Invest In Stocks

This collectible plate is where it's at, my friend.



There's a strict limit of only 2 victory plates per caller! And the entire issue has been limited to 65 "firing" days... after that, they're breaking the mold and NO MORE PLATES!

So ask yourself... if you're lucky enough to have $20 to spend, would you rather have 3 shares of Citigroup, or a collectible plate?

BTW: LOFL @ 0:12-0:13....

Quiet Monday For DT

After Friday's "ass-blasting," I came in this morning a much-humbled trader. But you know, it's a good thing.

I spent the weekend reorganizing all of my sector lists thanks to my new favorite site, "Finviz." They really have a great screener. I highly recommend it.

The whole experience reminded me how often you need to re-start with this occupation. It's like none other. Everyday the market changes and you need to constantly adapt and remake yourself. You will be humbled and you need to learn from those experiences, or else you will fail.

Anyway, so I missed the morning carnage and have been trading very lightly. We've given back roughly a third of our run from last week. At 1:30, "Beardo" will be talking. The volume is light. In other words, there's really no reason for me to trade until the close at this point. See you then.

Meanwhile, get a load of the morning "heat map."



UPDATE: Also, nice post from Clusterstock comparing bad bear markets.

Another Interesting Search

Here's a good one. Some poor soul out there was trying to search Yahoo for "scrotum" but misspelled it "scotrum" and found my illustrious site...

Clearly, my guerilla marketing campaign is working.



NOTE: "the Fly" has added a new tabbed blogger. Go welcome "Chart Addict" to the site. As I quipped yesterday, iBC has so many tabs now it's "too big to fail."