Tuesday, December 2, 2008

40% Bear Market Rally In The Works?

This guy thinks so... (h/t "Trader P")

5 comments:

OONR7 said...

how can you respect any exchange that's pronounced 'footsie'?

illmighty said...

Well that 40% rally from a possible "slump" of 6400 on the DOW would put us at 8960 by mid 2009...10% higher than today. Shit, I could buy that, but I was thinking around 9750-10250 if we close above 8700 this month (200mo. avg.). Just my guess. My dartboard (throwing blindfolded) showed DOW 4000, which I thought was waaay off...

Joe said...

What amazes me is that they are calling for this rally on a specific week. What tells them this, I am assuming, is a combination of tea-leaf reading and astrology.

Whisp said...

My personal view is Sandy Jadeja, of ODL Securities is throwing a hail mary with this call. Making an extreme market-directional call within a specific short-term timeframe is just the move a little known analyst would pull to gain attention to an even lesser known boutique firm. Not a bad play when many high net worth investors and funds are moving away from the major full-service brokerage houses to mid-level players, because really what do you have to lose? If you're right, you look like a genius and attract tons of new business, if you're wrong, by July nobody remembers this segment. That being said, I would definitely take the other side of a July '09 40% rally bet. Its interesting that this analyst is simultaneously calling for a further 30% + drop in the price of oil. The price of crude oil is representative of global growth, or lack thereof. If a deepening global recession is forecast by a further 30% drop in crude oil, this would likely be very bearish for equities.
Trading with a 6-month time horizon in this volatile market is incredibly difficult, I can imagine, and I have tons of respect for the folks that are able to do so profitably (I know I can't). Hopefully this cat is putting a trade on cuz its way too easy to make outlandish calls when nothing is on the line.

Dinosaur Trader said...

illmighty, I hope that dart was broken or something...

whisp, I agree with your read of this situation 100%. It makes perfect sense for this dude to throw a hail mary. And in this environment, making a crazy call doesn't even seem that crazy, so why not?

-DT