Deerhunter, "Strange Lights"

Note to "mdawsz:" What's with Get Short being private? Where's that new blog you were promising last week?

Stock Trades In Monsanto

I guess you can never have enough discipline, when trading.

I'm just going to focus on my trades in MON for this post. I made a little money in MON today, it was my best stock, but I also left a lot on the table. Also, I lost money in the stock first, with some not well thought out trades.



So first, the bad trades.

Right off the bat, at 9:34 I bought a couple hundred shares at $122. POT gapped higher, BG was ripping, MOS was running and so I figured MON was bound to run too. Unfortunately, the stock dropped a straight point immediately after my purchase. I sold 100 right away, at $121.85, but held the other 100 shares, because I "knew" the stock was going to trade with the other ferts eventually.

So after the stock dropped the point, it seemed to stabilize, and I added 200 shares down at $121.25, giving me a total of 300 shares. I limited 100 out right away a half point higher. I stopped the other 200 at $121, or the recent low. The stock bounced around for a few minutes (while the other ag plays consolidated their morning spikes) and then dipped below $121, stopping me out of my shares.

Naturally, after that, it had to rip. Man, I was pissed. And of course, I wanted to buy back right away, but I held off, because I was afraid it was just going to chop me again. So I waited for him to trade the morning high and pullback. I picked up 300 at around $122.10.

But, he was chopping around still and I got nervous. I sold 200 right away, at $122.30. Then, of course, the stock ripped. I sold my last 100 shares up at $123.60.

Okay, I made one last trade in the stock. $124, was an important number to watch for on the daily (as per HCPG) and so when the stock ran there, pulled back, and then went through, I bought 200 shares. The stock spiked up pretty hard, and I sold 100 at $124.60. I trailed the other 100 with a stop and was hit at $124.44.

So, what do I take from this? I need to be patient and wait for better chart patterns before I leap into stocks. Not that I was wrong on my first trades... I was ultimately right, and buying the laggard in a strong sector is often a great strategy. But my problem is I don't have the confidence right now to believe enough in my trades to take the pain to see them through. So for now, I need to keep sticking to tight rules.

But I see improvement in my trading, if only because I'm really beginning to notice my mistakes more... I've felt like this for some time though. Hopefully, I can continue to build on my small wins. You know, hit the singles and get my swing back... that whole thing.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $170
Best, MON, $192
Worst, DVN, -$134

6600 shares traded.
6 stocks traded, 4 winners, 2 losers.

Virtual Office, $178. SPX, -5.80, 1329.80.

Ainkurn, $290 on 250 shares traded.
Me, $170 on 6600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $146 on 2750 shares traded.
OBAT, $11 on 8400 shares traded.
Timmay, no trades.
Retardo, no trades.
Sanglucci, -$439 on 10,600 shares traded.

Shhhh! The VO is sleeping...

I can't remember the last time that volume was so low on the exchange. We traded just over 1.1 billion shares on the NYSE. My main office got killed today, I think they all got caught up in PBR somehow but I'm not sure exactly what happened.

I, for one, made some good trades in the morning, but wasn't aggressive enough. The carnage in my main office told me to trade lightly. Then, at 10:30 I went to the beach to surf for 3 hours. So I don't have loads of color... but based on the anemic volume and the numbers coming out of my main office, I don't think it was a happy day for active traders.

Anyway, hopefully we get some action now that earnings season is upon us. However, I feel oddly pessimistic about the whole thing... like it will be worse than ever or something. Clearly, the environment for prop traders has changed radically in just a few weeks and guys who aren't switching their game up are getting punished.

There's lots of opportunity out there though... a huge amount, in fact, in the same sectors that have been moving for weeks, the coals, ag names, oils, and financials.

Pick your spots. Don't overtrade this market.

What Is The VO? And Why?

I literally get thousands, no, tens of thousands of emails a week from people asking me questions about the Virtual Office, or VO. How much money do they need to send me to join? What is it? Is it true they'll get laid more as a member? etc... etc...

So I decided to make this quick post to explain the VO.

First, a little history... way back when, I started this blog due to my frustrations with the NYSE hybrid market.

I hated it.

At the time, I was trading at home, alone, with no contact from any office full of traders or Internet chatrooms. Indeed, this was before I took up surfing again, and sometimes I would go weeks at a time without seeing anyone other than my wife, daughter, and a small group of friends.

I was a mostly a hermit, and as far as work matters went, I was 100% a hermit.

Looking to bitch/learn about the hybrid market, I found Ray's blog, (where I learned that many people hated the hybrid) and from it, NYSE Scalper's blog. I noticed that each day, Scalper would post his P&L. He had an extensive blogroll, and from there, I found a few other traders who posted their daily numbers, most notably, OBAT and Evolution.

So to answer the trivia question, "who were the 4 original members of the VO?" the answer is myself, Scalper, OBAT and Evolution.

So why did I start the VO? To create a community where it would be easy to learn from the gains and losses of other traders. In a real prop office, at the end of the day, you find the guy who made the loot, and you ask him how the fuck he did it. The guy would point at a graph, show you where he bought and sold, etc.

And naturally, as the market giveth, it also taketh away, so you'd find the guy who lost a ton of money (you'd easily find him, because his desk was surrounded by tech guys who were busy installing a new keyboard and mouse while quietly removing the smashed plastic remains of his old ones) and offer him up some hollow platitudes, "You'll get em tomorrow!" etc. The trader would give you a quick sideways glance, canine in nature, and get back to looking at graphs.

You don't want to be the pile-up on the side of the road for too often in a prop office...

The VO was my attempt to regain some feeling of camaraderie about trading (while leading my otherwise hermetic existence), and also, to engender a friendly spirit of competition among the participants. And from a logistical standpoint, I found it somewhat annoying to run to each blog each night to check for stats. Most often, they were in a different spot on each blog, and I thought having them posted at the same time each day (between 4:00 and 4:15 EST) in one central standardized spot for them would be a good thing for the stock blogging community.

And speaking of community, each member of the VO blogs daily about their trading day. So you come to the VO at 4:15, see who made the loot, and then click the link to their blog to "virtually" look over their shoulder to see how they made their money, or alternatively, blew up.

While some may disparage this "focus on the past" it's only by understanding your past trading errors that you'll be able to prevent them in the future... in theory, anyway. Also, it's one thing to write about stocks you think should be bought or sold, but it's another entirely to discuss the actual profits you made from those trades.

So that is the VO or, Virtual Office. It's a place where stock market bloggers post their daily profits or losses and from which you can learn where the money is being made (or lost) in the market each day by full time traders.

Your Banana Killed A Bird

(click below before you begin to read this post... it's the Robin's song)

It's spring and there's nothing better than sitting on my front stoop at sunset and listening with my daughter for Robins to sing.

"There's one!" she'll say as we hear the bird's lilting tune.

But the experience has also become bittersweet.

Because as we listen to them sing, I know that songbird populations are decreasing rapidly, and I wonder if she'll have the same opportunity to enjoy a quiet sunset with her child someday, just listening for a song in the breeze.

Don't ever get so cynical to think you can't make a difference. Every purchase you make can influence events and the decisions you make are the power you wield. Wield it well.

Maybe tomorrow when you have that cup of coffee and banana, this will give you something to think about.

And when you hear the birds singing this spring, take an extra listen.

Nirvana, "In Bloom"

I may have a daily post up later... but in case I don't get to it.

Virtual Office, -$791. SPX, -27.30, 1335.30.

Ainkurn, $330 on 550 shares traded.
Denarii, $126 on 2400 shares traded.
Retardo, $90 on 5 contracts traded.
Timmay, no trades.
OBAT, -$139 on 7400 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$167 on 3200 shares traded.
Me, -$277 on 32,000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$754 on 5874 shares traded.

The big news today is that Retardo finally made a trade. I want to be the first to congratulate him... I know it can be hard to pull the trigger. Equally impressive was the spirited performance by Ainkurn. Give the kid some credit, he's from Mississippi, so you know what kind of gene pool he's dealing with.

I'm sure his brain hurts, thank god it's Friday, huh?

In other VO news, we suck.

Even with the GE news, volume blew. I'm starting to get a bad feeling that even earnings season will be lame... what happened to the volume? the volatility? the fear and greed? These are the things that make trading fun.

Anyway, at least I'm getting my cash from the stimulus package... perhaps I'll throw a poll up so you people can help me decide how to spend my treasure.

The Rise And Fall Of Faux News

Check this Daily Show documentary on Fox News.

Part 1...



Part 2...

My Day Has Been Far Too Exciting...

On a day where I should be taking it easy, I jumped into the market this morning like a drunk guy off a dock.

Perhaps it was because I learned that I had qualified for President Bush's stimulus package and I felt like I had some green to burn.

I tell you... that was some bittersweet news. I almost feel like I should appreciate him for a day or something.... nah, fuck it. Worst president ever.

Anyway, I was down $700 early due to an ill conceived short in MS (before it tanked) and another ill conceived short in ACI.

I made it all back with a sweet MON long.

Let's see how we end.

Bears Last Chance?

If GE doesn't take the market down, what will?

The Ruby Suns, "Tane Mahuta"

Virtual Office, -$2775. SPX, +2.00 1362.30.

Evolution, $393 on 62,000 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $199 on 350 shares traded.
Timmay, $180 on 3000 shares traded.
Me, $80 on 3400 shares traded.
OBAT, no trades, vacation.
Retardo, no trades.
Denarii, -$264 on 3000 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$1046 on 14,600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$2317 on 3668 shares traded.

I came in bearish on the day (I blame "the Fly") and just couldn't believe it when we turned around and went positive with that "V" bottom at around 10:00am. We spiked up to the top part of the opening range, based for a minute and spiked even higher. At that point, I just couldn't step in and buy so I turned my computer off, and head to the beach for some nice surf.

Fuck this light volume market...

Still, even though the VO got smoked today, there was money to be made in the materials and coal stocks. My main office did okay, with 70% of the guys being positive, and a few making some nice cake.

I'm at a loss to understand what's driving this market higher. This low volume rally reminds me of the same crap we got this time last year... hopefully, we get a pickup in volume soon.

Again, I look to the start of earnings season to help us out.

Blogroll Update

Ragin Cajun, March 2008

In an amazing move, Ragin Cajun (notice, no link) went from being a "solid internet ally" to a dick, with one post.

You may think that I have something to lose here, but I don't, as the moment he was hired on to be a "first tier blogger" he immediately forgot his third tier roots and got incredibly stingy with his blogroll. And, of course, his blog is gayer than ever.

From now on, I will be supporting Danny's blog, over at IBC.

Danny is funny, into board sports, and introduced me to the term "FUPA," which has won me many laughs at dinner parties.

Thank You, Stock Market Gods... Thank You!

I woke up yesterday somewhat bleary eyed and only planning to watch a couple of stocks. We had a pediatrician appointment early, and I knew I was going to try to hit a couple of trades and then split.

One of the trades I was watching was for CF to break $133. It had reached that level and been resisted the prior two days. Pre-open, it blipped above that level, and the other fertilizer names were showing strength. The stock was volatile, so I bid at $132.40 with an idea that I'd give it to $132.

In what can only be described as a gift from the stock market gods, the stock took my bid, gave me only 4 cents of pain, and then ripped almost 4 straight points. Since I'm still not used to moves that occur so quickly, I limited out after 2 points and took my gains, thinking it "had" to pull back... no real complaints here though.



My second trade was handed to me on a platter by my friend Evolution. He's a very consistent trader who tends to specialize in a specific sector or two. Currently, he's been nailing the financials, so when he mentioned MER as a short while it was trading around $46.80, I took note. I pulled up the 3 minute graph, and placed a sell limit up on the 5-period line, at $46.93. Again, the nebulous stock market gods smiled on my poor ass, and I was filled just before the stock tanked a point.



Again, I didn't hold for the full move, my last cover was at $46.38, but no real complaints.

Lately, in an attempt to hold trending stocks that are going in my favor, I've been moving stops just above (or below) the most recent 5 minute candle. In this instance, had I covered using that method, I would have been stopped out at $46.69, netting myself about $70. Instead, I took partials on the way down and bid where there was initial resistance on the move and net $100. I think a combination of the two methods, where I take some off on "feel" and hold smaller size for potentially larger moves with trailing stops over (or above) the recent 5-minute bars is where I'm headed.

So it was 10:00am and we had to leave in 20 minutes for our 10.45 appointment. I figured I had one more trade to make, but I didn't want to risk too much since I had such luck so early. The early trade was light and the office was getting chopped.

I noticed CF trying to get back to the early morning highs while the other fertilizer names, had already turned tail and were closer to their morning lows. So I short 100 shares into the move up betting that he couldn't take out his high. I actually planned on entering a buy stop above the morning high and going to the appointment with a live order, but I didn't want it on my mind, so I covered down where Ainkurn said there was "some good ole support."



Anyway, after that, we head to the doctor's office where we learned that our daughter had a "ragin'" ear infection. She's been pretty miserable for a week, but the infection only popped up in the last two days.

This story has a happy ending however, and somewhat explains why this post is being written at 3am.

We haven't slept much here in the last week, since our daughter has been suffering through bouts of hives and fever. So last evening, while putting her to sleep, I too fell asleep, at 7:30. Just before she drifted off, she sat bolt upright in bed and announced to my wife and I that, "I feel much better now!"

Then, she dropped back down to the bed and was asleep in seconds. She hasn't had a fever or hives all night, and I got 6 hours of straight sleep. Apparently, that was enough, because I woke at 2:30, feeling brighter than the sun.

Here's the stats:
P&L, $378
Best, CF, $279
Worst, MER, $99

1000 shares traded.
2 stocks traded, 1 winner, 1 loser.

Virtual Office, $1188. SPX, -11.80, 1359.00.

Sanglucci, $820 on 16,600 shares traded.
Me, $378 on 1000 shares traded.

Timmay, $330 on 3000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $167 on 6216 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Denarii, -$13 on 2800 shares traded.
Ainkurn, -$58 on 300 shares traded.
Evolution, -$436 on 61,600 shares traded.

Well, I didn't trade much today since my focus was elsewhere, so I can't give much color. However, reading over my office's chat room, it seemed like almost everyone was frustrated by the low volume and choppy trade.

Low volume, that is, until LEH dropped like a rock on huge volume at the close... that doesn't portend well for tomorrow, I'll say that much.



We just got over 1.2 billion today on the NYSE. We're stuck in this tight range. Perhaps the earnings reports next week will spice things up again.

I'll post some graphs later with my trades. Since I only made 3 today, it'll be easy.

Meanwhile, Sanglucci will be sipping fancy drinks in "cake city" tonight. Way to break your bad streak, you herb.

Michelle Caruso Cabrera

I wish I had a before and after picture (surely, in time, some gossip site will furnish us with one)... but, what the fuck did she do to her face?

Plastic surgery is scary.

A Quick Comparison

Convincing a sick child that going to the doctor is either "necessary" or "fun" is much harder than trading stock.

In between heaves this morning, our three year old was screaming, "No! I'm NOT sick!"

Expect light trading from these quarters today...

The Pixies, "Wave of Mutilation"

Virtual Office, -$1277. SPX, -2.20, 1370.00

Evolution, $232 on 71,200 shares traded.
OBAT, $177 on 5000 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $6 on 200 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Timmay, no trades.
Denarii, -$135 on 2600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$322 on 6570 shares traded.
Me, -$1235 on 18,800 shares traded.

The market sucked today but I sucked even more.

On a day where there were no large sector moves (minus those sexy coal stocks) and absolutely no volume in the market, it was all about waiting for the FOMC minutes.

"The FOMC minutes will save me... The FOMC minutes will save me..."

That's what I kept repeating to myself, like some fucked up stock trader mantra.

Naturally, whenever you "hope" for anything in the market, you get your balls crushed, like some masochistic pervert in a NYC sex club.

Anyway, enough about me...

The VO had kind of a crappy day and I offer congratulations to those who finished green. At the same time, I really hate those people right now, just for making my crappy day seem even shittier. If only OBAT had thrown down a 2g loss or something, my evening could have been saved.

A Bad Day

I'm having a shitty day... a real shitty day. Most of my losses are in the two stocks below.

Since I don't plan on risking much more today, my $1200 loss will probably just have to stick, like shit, to my trading account. $900 of that loss is detailed below.

Very hard day to take since I've been on a real roll. I need to get better at listening to myself when the trading day appears to be crap. I had a string of losses right off the bat, nothing was working, and I should have lightened my size and taken fewer trades.





Hope your day is going better, bitchface.

NOTE: Meanwhile, on days like these, it's good to regain perspective. Here's a good list of "psychology rules" to live by when trading.

It also helps to laugh... go check out the Wall Street Fighter picture and caption today. Classic.