Stars Of The Lid, "Requiem For Dying Mothers (excerpt)"

Quiet day, quiet song. Enjoy the evening.

Mixed Messages

I'm done trading for the day because I can't figure out what is going on.

Here's a few examples of what I mean...

The AD has been bearish most of the day but the TRIN has been mostly bullish.

The S&P and Dow are down for the day, but the COMP is positive.

Half of the latin-american names I watch are down and half are up.

Same with the fertilizers, POT up good, TNH down, CF flat.

In other words, it's hard to discern any type of trend in this market today and since volume is light and I've lost in the last 3 trades I made, I'm walking away.

I don't have a lot to offer today as far as trades go. Nothing really worked much in my favor or really against me. I had a couple of instances where I should have let things run more. Case in point, TNH.

I got short at 11:41 as the stock traded above 136. I figured he might hit some resistance in this area due to the action on Tuesday. He ran up near 137 and turned tail, heading south. I covered at 1:37 as the market looked to be rallying and it was getting close to my entry.

Instead, I should have held my stop in this situation because he wasn't showing "strength". I was skittish. I took a small profit when instead I could have taken a few points.

So I'm not forcing anything. Today, afterall, is the day when the toddlers come to pee on our carpets and rip down our window treatments. I need to mentally prepare for the chaos.


Sorry for the lame post, but it was a lame trading day.


Here's the stats:


P&L, $15
Best, HXM, $131
Worst, NOV, -$128


shares traded, 6400
stocks traded, 14, 7 positive, 7 negative
total trades, 49

Virtual Office, $776. Dow, -11.46, 13565.84.

HPT, $409 on 15 contracts traded.
Evolution, $322 on 8800 shares traded.
OBAT, $55 on 7000 shares traded.
Me, $15 on 6400 shares traded.
Denarii, -$25 on 1000 shares traded.

I'm happy that most finished green for the day but the only word I can think of to describe the trading today is LAME.

The indexes were mixed, the indicators were mixed, the stocks that normally trade together weren't.... it was just LAME.

If you're bullish, I guess you can be happy that the market reversed it's losses from the morning. I wouldn't say I'm bullish or bearish here, more like, "boredish".

Anyway, let's see if the employment data tomorrow does something to create a little action. I wouldn't bet the house on it though... or even a shingle.

Tight Rules And Easy Trading

The holiday is behind us but the holiday week is not.

Therefore I'm going to be taking it easy again today studying setups and watching the market for clues.

For now I will share a conversation I overhead this weekend. Three guys talking about books.

Jack: "Joe, you ever read Philistines At The Hedgerow?"

Joe: "No. Any good?"

Jack: "Yeah, it's pretty good. Gossipy. I just thought about it when George mentioned that he didn't know if any of the condos sold but he knew that Brian Cook was renting one. It's name-dropping like that. You're gonna love it, George."

George: "Yeah, and let me tell you, I'm happy you brought it for me to borrow, because this book I just started is slow."

Joe: "What are you reading?"

George: "Crime and Punishment", which sucks, because I just finished the "Count of Monte Cristo" and it ruled. Before that, I read "War and Peace" and that was pretty damned good too."

Joe: "War and Peace"? Damn, isn't that a really big book? Who wrote it?"

George: "I dunno. Leo Tolstoy or some shit."

Angler: The Cheney Vice Presidency

This is a long, but apparently very interesting series of articles from the Washington Post. Here, I quote from their lead in:

"Dick Cheney is the most influential and powerful man ever to hold the office of vice president. This series examines Cheney's largely hidden and little-understood role in crafting policies for the War on Terror, the economy and the environment."

Anyway, I haven't read it yet but I'll get to it this evening, once the little one hits the bed.

Check it out.

Sorry for all the political posts today. There's just a lot going on. Tomorrow we'll be back to stocks.

A Different Kind Of Fireworks

Again, over the top? Yes... too dramatic? Probably. But, he's RIGHT!

Animal Collective, "Fireworks"

Happy 4th of july!

Don McLean, "American Pie"

Hitting Singles

Trying to get my swing down. So far, so good. The homeruns will come.

As expected, today was tumbleweeds. Still, there was some movement.

The airlines busted higher and my old friend TNH decided to rip north 5 points off the open. Brokers moved and so did a few of the cyclical names. In short, if you picked your spots you could find some trades.

For me, that meant watching TNH.



After the morning run to 140 I was thinking, "Damn, will this stock ever go down?" while I watched some of the other stocks in the sector, most notably POT, struggle. But TNH lost steam at 140 and just couldn't push through that level again after a few tries. So, I threw a short order in and was filled on 100 shares at 139.39 at around 10:30.

For the second day in a row, this turned out to be a pretty decent entry and I watched the stock slide pretty easily into a choppy range around 138. 137.30 was acting as support and honestly, I was pretty nervous that he was getting ready to vault back up to the highs of the day, but I held my ground. He finally broke 137.30 and moved smartly down into the 135 area filling the gap from the morning. Not wanting to be greedy or stupid, I covered my shares at 136.29 taking just over 3 points out of the stock.

I had no other trades of note. Everything else essentially cancelled out.

There were a couple of things I screwed up on though, most notably an OSK long.



I traded this stock yesterday and wanted to buy if he traded over 64 today. He opened over 64 and immediately went into a tight range. I bought some around 64.20 and basically watched the stock flatline. I got impatient and sold, getting out flat in the stock only to watch it break higher in the afternoon. This was frustrating.

However, there were a couple of other instances today where I bought stock and sold before my stops were hit and managed to lose less than I would have had I held on.

Basically, I still can't figure out which is best. To buy stock, place stops and walk away or to watch the positions and trail my stops or sell at market if I feel the position is going to turn on me. I imagine that as I gain confidence with scanning and finding setups and improving my entries that this "problem" will more or less solve itself.

Anyway, have a great holiday everyone. Tomorrow should be a slow day on the blog. I may just clean some stuff up and perhaps write a review of my July 4th or something. Should be lots of interesting "summer people" around to poke fun at.

As they say, "Summer people, summer not."

Here's the stats:

P&L, $217
Best, TNH, $261
Worst, LNN, -$56

shares traded, 3800
stocks traded, 10, 4 positive, 6 negative
total trades, 35

Virtual Office, $927. Dow, +41.46, 13576.89.

Evolution, $584 on 20,000 shares traded.
Me, $217 on 3800 shares traded.
HPT, $106 on 19 contracts traded.
OBAT, $20 on 2200 shares traded.

It's always nice to sneak in a couple of dollars when no one is watching. That's always how it feels to me on these holiday shortened days. Bob Pisani always says something idiotic (he apparently can't help saying idiotic things) like "the adults are all on vacation" but you can always find some movement.

In other words, I'm pleased to see the VO entirely in the green on a day when you're really not expected to trade.

Have a safe holiday everyone.

What To Expect Today On Wall Street

"Woooo! Here they come! Here the big weeds come man!
Look at this! It's coming!"

The Colbert Show, Profiles In Timing

This is classic. It would be funnier if it wasn't so sad.

Interpol, "Pioneer To The Falls"

Great song and whomever made this video took cuts from Donnie Darko, a movie I liked a lot.

(Just Like) Starting Over

Imagine me crooning this song to the market, instead of John singing it to Yoko. That's how it is around here.

Scanning stocks today, on 15 minute and 30 minute charts, looking for setups was a little mind-dulling, but fun nonetheless. It wasn't stressful, that's for sure! So perhaps me and the market can rekindle the love we used to have for each other.

But I've been down this path before. I have a good day trying something new and then I fall back into old habits and get smoked. I will need a few days of watching stocks and seeing this stuff work before I get too excited.

Anyway, my P&L sheet looks as it should, one good winner and no bad losers and the rest of the trades more or less cancelling themselves out.

Here's what worked for me:



With the market up big, I was looking for longs. I found CMI had opened strong and then pulled back into a base from which it was slowly grinding upwards. 103 was acting as resistance all morning. When it broke above 103 and stayed above I looked to buy above the top of the morning range. At 11:55 I was filled at 103.32. The stock ran nicely and didn't really cause me any pain as it never dropped below 103 again.

I noticed that on Thursday of last week the stock made a little double-top around 105, so I expected resistance there. At a little after 2pm, it ran up to 105 but showed a bearish looking shadow on the candle so I sold 100 shares. I held the rest until 2:45, when it tried to run over 105 again and failed. Anyway, so with a 200 share trade, I net $286.

My second best trade today was a short on CROX in the morning.



I noticed that on Friday 43 was resistance. Also, on the daily you can see that Friday was a pretty weak bounce on anemic volume. So when the stock opened above 43 but struggled to move much higher, I watched for it to fail and break back below 43 which I assumed would be resistance again. Another thing making me bearish was the face that some firm came out and reiterated their "Strong Buy" on the stock but no one seemed to care. So, I short 100 shares at 42.95. Plus, their shoes are ridiculous looking...face it, Trading Goddess!

Anyway, I thought there'd be some support at 42 and decided to cover at 42.30. I didn't like being short with the market being so strong.

One thing about my position sizes this week. They're going to be extremely small. I'm working a new style of trading and it's a holiday week. So I'm just testing. Call it Dinosaur Beta. If I enter a trade that is with the market, like CMI, I'll throw in 200 or 300 shares. If I'm doing a counter-trend trade, as with CROX, I'm going to cut my size in half.

It's all about gaining confidence. Once I gain confidence trading like this I will up my position sizes accordingly.


There's one thing I still don't "get" about trading like this. Say if I'm long and then the market starts to break and go lower. Do I sell my winners (assuming I'm still long and in the money) or just move stops up to break-even points? It's this "managing positions" thing that I have to get straight. Last week I ran into trouble when the market reversed and I wasn't fast enough to cover my positions. I let winners turn into losers. The trick is managing the stops so I give them enough room to work out yet still keep my losses small enough. This is something I need to work on still.


Anyway, here's the stats:

P&L, $314
Best, CMI, $286
Worst, AGU, -$45

shares traded, 3200 (probably an all time low for me on a full day of work)
stocks traded, 8, 4 positive, 4 negative
total trades, 26

Virtual Office, $1573. Dow, +126.81, 13535.43.

Misstrade, $832 on 6000 shares traded.
Me, $314 on 3200 shares traded.
HPT, $204 on 10 contracts traded.
Evolution, $154 on 37,500 shares traded.
OBAT, $69 on 400 shares traded.

Volume was light today, but not awful. I bet this was will be the highest volume day of the week though, as people will leave for the Hamptons on Tuesday afternoon and stay out all week long. Based on my blog volume alone, I feel lots of people are already gone.

Next Monday hopefully, we'll be full staffed again.

Anyway, all the action in the indexes basically happened in the first half hour of the day and then we fell into a range. It was a strong day, but choppy and on light volume. Not optimal trading conditions. So, it's good to see that everyone finished in the green for the day.

Tomorrow is a half day for the exchange and therefore it will be a half day for the VO as well.

Conversations With Toddlers

This is a word-for-word snippet of a "conversation" I just had with my 2 1/2 year old:

She: A merry-go-round that doesn't stop.
Me: Are you talking about life?
She: No. I'm talking about a merry-go-round that doesn't spin.
Me. Oh.
She: (sensing I have no idea what the heck is going on) You know what I'm talking about Daddy?
Me: No.
She: (moving on) I saw a kite!

In related news, my wife has promised a post on excrement and how one removes it from a number of surfaces. Developing...

Rangebound

Well, as advertised, this week has started off on a slow note. I'm not saying it's not cool that the Dow is currently up 90 points, I'm just saying that all of the substantial action in stocks came in the first 30 minutes of trade and since then, the indexes have been flatlining.

In keeping with my "plan" I have only executed a few trades today. So far, so good. I've been studying setups via Maoxian, and candlestick charts via Trader Mike. I know this may seem somewhat ridiculous from someone who's been daytrading for the last 8 years, but my knowledge of "setups" and "chart patterns" is basically nil.

I have been trading intuitively for so long that these things are basically new to me... meaning, if someone asked me how I've made so much trading these last few years I wouldn't be able to tell them in any clear way.

I traded and I don't know how.

So in a way, I'm learning how to trade all over again. It feels crisp.

Anyway, we'll see how the day ends. If I lose money, I'll go back to freaking out.

UPDATE: The Dow is now up 105... perhaps we'll have a nice afternoon rally.

Ray's Vast Basement, "California's Gone"

Oh man, I'm so happy this band has a new album out. I found their first album a few year's back and bought 3 copies, one for my dad and one for a friend who also likes music. I bought it directly from the band, and it came with a pack of pictures telling the story of the album. I still listen to it.

This single from their new album sounds great... check it out!

Los Campesinos, "You! Me! Dancing!"

It's a party weekend.

Early Fireworks

More like bombs!

I woke up and saw that the 200 share short position I held overnight in TNH was going to rip my face off at the open. I stayed short overnight because I got short yesterday in the middle of the afternoon and it never reached my buy stop that I had up at 128. So, I started the day down $700.



Then all was kind of quiet. I actually bought TNH and made most of my losses back in him on the long side. But then I noticed IOC. This stock has been demolished recently. Today was the first day I decided to stick my toes in the water of this lunatic.

It's bad enough that the stock has lost over half of it's value in the last few trading sessions. Worse yet, it trades on the (enter scary music here) AMEX!

I won't bore you with all of the details, but let's just say I remembered why I don't trade these falling knives anymore... it's simply because I want to live a long healthy life.



It ended up being my worst stock of the day, I lost $233 in him. No disaster ( I don't really own 20k from $44...) but still, it wasn't pleasant and kept me mentally wrapped up in a real piece of shit. Meanwhile, I had other stuff that was working in my favor.

Again, I made most of my good trades today on the short side. My best was a short in VNO but I also had good shorts in VMC, EDU and HXM. Additionally, I had one good long today, in LNN.



Next week is going to be completely dead. And, I have a very strict plan that I intend to follow so that I use the week constructively.

I will more or less be papertrading and studying the market. I am going to limit myself to 10 trades a day and study Maoxian's setups that Woodshedder gave me the link for.

I will also surf and spend time with my family. We also have another goddamn children's party to go to... But mostly, I'm just gonna chill out and come back strong and ready for Monday July, 9.

I said yesterday that July is a pivotal month for me. This is because it has literally been months since I've made good money trading. We have fairly modest expenses here but I have to face reality. If I don't make money in July I will start sending resumes out. I can manage to trade and not make any money doing it until December, but after that I'll probably have a nervous breakdown.

So, in order to avoid that kind of event, I'm planning ahead. I figure that having to write up a resume and trying to present myself in some type of professional manner to people who are judging me should scare the shit out of me enough where it will really get me to focus hard on trading well. Maybe "the fly" will pay me to be a weekend blogger. I'll do it for $2500 per weekend. Sound good?

Trading is a great job when the money is pouring in. You are completely free. If you don't respect that you lose that freedom. Anyway... have a safe weekend. If you're drunk, call a cab.

Here's the stats.

P&L, $283
Best, VNO, $457
Worst, IOC, -$233

shares traded, 23,800
stocks traded, 15, 8 positive, 7 negative
total trades, 139