Thursday, June 26, 2008

The Trader's Edge With Art Cashin, June 26, 2008

Here's a brief paraphrase of what Art had to say today.

CNBC: The FED yesterday, GS today... do you see any silver linings?

Art: No. In fact, I'll bet the FED cuts before it raises this year.

CNBC: Wow... really?

Art: Well, I think GS is so convicted that there's gonna be some trouble and the rumor mongers are out again. And not just the in the financial companies but the automobile companies are in such trouble, that there's a rumor going around that one of them may be filing for chapter 11.

CNBC: We've heard that rumor too... sounds far fetched, no?

Art: Well, you never say never these days.

CNBC: Art will be guest hosting for 2 hours on Monday.

Art: TV is a vast wasteland.

The Daily Show Discusses the EPA's Report On Greenhouse Gases

"The White House Is Treating America's Environmental Policy Like A Spam Boner Pill Ad"

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Fleet Foxes, "Tiger Mountain Peasant Song" (live)

Both upcoming NY area shows sold out... if any of you know how to get tickets, please write me. Seriously. These guys are so damn good. They're gonna be huge.

Trimming The Fat

I had a couple of decent trades today, in JRCC and ATW specifically. However, I want to focus on something that is definitely holding my P&L back... the shitty little losses I keep amassing.

In order to better focus on eliminating these shitty little trades, I'm going to start reporting my broken down P&L. I'll report my winners and losers as usual, and add up the total dollar amount of each.

Like, for example, I jumped the gun in AET, WCC and BG today. My three losses in those stocks added up to about $150. Nothing disasterous to be sure, but when I'm making $200 a good day, I have to figure out where all the headwinds are.

I've been over my inability to hold winners... that's been a recurring theme of this blog since, well... forever, and my most obvious failing. My other (within the current style I'm trading) is my trade selection. I'm just taking too many shitty trades still, without crystal clear entries and exits. I need to just stop that and focus on the 3 or 4 excellent trades that seem to present themselves each day.

Anyway, my best stock of the day was JRCC. It was my first trade in a 4-letter name with my new company and it was very satisfying. Mostly because it worked so quickly and easily. There was no retest of my entry or chop. It just cratered at my entry point. Of course, I covered it all too early.



My other decent trade came in ATW, another HCPG play. This was good just because once again, it worked right away. The reason I sold "early" instead of waiting for the $112 target was because the $OSX was so weak all day. I rather doubted the stock would reach the target, so I just took the easy money.



Anyway, I've been treading water the last few days with trading and my focus has been elsewhere. But I want to finish the month strong. There are 3 trading days left, and I'm setting the (sadly) ambitious goal of $300 a day average so I can hit the $2000 mark on the month.

With the Russell Rebalancing on Friday however, anything can happen. I'm still undecided about whether I should go at it lunatic style and take massive risk, or if I should play it close to my chest and take my small gains for the month... we'll see.

Here's the stats:
P&L, $225
Best, JRCC, $256
Worst, BG, -$51

4000 shares traded.
3 winners for $409.
6 losers for $188.

Virtual Office, -$2525. Dow, +4.40, 11,811.83.

Me, $226 on 4000 shares traded.
OBAT, vacation.
Denarii, -$86 on 6400 shares traded.
Tokyo, $-2665 on 961 shares traded.


FED day! Yay! (silence...)

I hate FED days, as do most traders in my office. It's just this expectation overhanging trade all day long... that said, the usual suspects in the RO made size. One dude just made 10 points shorting RIMM... and as another ROer said, "the rich get richer."

I don't have any stats for the RO today.

Tokyo got smoked. He had some swing positions that he decided to let go. It happens, but it sucks when it does.

Anyway, here we are mostly through June with a huge event coming on Friday. The suspense builds. Hopefully now that the FED is out of the way, the VO can look forward to some good trade for the next few days to close the month strong.

Summer Songs

We've hit that time of year where it seems like it's 80 degrees and humid everyday. Naturally, there are songs that reflect this type of weather quite nicely.

Below, for your listening pleasure, I've added The Skygreen Leopards, "The Supplication of Fireflies" and The Zombies, "Beachwood Park" to my music collection. As a reminder, you can find all the music I've ever posted to this blog at my Imeem page, or, just click on the labels on the right-hand toolbar.

Anyway, any songs that remind you of summer? Put them in the comment section.

As far as trading goes, I had a decent morning and now I'm gonna go out into the sun to continue with the property clean-up while I wait for the FED numbers at 2:15pm.

My best stock of the day is JRCC, which I caught a nice short on... perhaps these 4-letter stocks will help me out afterall...

Enjoy the music.



Tuesday, June 24, 2008

For The Guys In The RO

I lost money today... you know the drill.

Clearcut

My neighbors are removing a half acre of trees from their property so they can put in a fucking pool. Meanwhile, we live about a quarter mile from a secluded and beautiful bay beach.

Anyway, the point is that when they started in on the trees today, I just couldn't concentrate on the market, since I was so enraged, and decided to spend the day at the beach surfing, instead.

It was a good decision.

They have much more work to do unfortunately.

Anyway, here's a quick glance at the VO.

Denarii, $251 on 8000 shares traded.
Timmay, $202 on 3000 shares traded.
Tokyo, $180 on 3005 shares traded.
Me, -$59 on 7400 shares traded.

Monday, June 23, 2008

The Kinks, "Sunny Afternoon"

Virtual Office, $200. Dow, -0.33, 11,842.36.

Tokyo, $244 on 3 shares traded.
Me, $85 on 4000 shares traded.
OBAT, vacation.
Denarii, -$129 on 5600 shares traded.


Two words... summer doldrums.

We barely nudged over 1 billion shares today on the NYSE, and the VIX basically flatlined. It was dead. In fact, it was the lowest volume day of the year.

Now, that's not to say that the usual suspects weren't moving. Oil and gas names ripped higher, and there was plenty of intrigue in the fertilizer names... some moved higher, while BG got clipped.

In addition, the financial stocks seem to be heading straight to zero.

Anyway, not only can I trade 4-letter names now, but I also realized today that I wasn't able to get quotes on my Level 2 from either NYSE or NSDQ these last 6 months. Interesting. Not that I rely on the Level 2 too much, but still... Tomorrow, I'll be able to trade Nasdaq stocks, and I'll also be able to trade with complete information.

In theory, that should help my game, right?

As of noon today, my RO was completely smoked. The big winner was up about $2500, while the big loser was down about $10gs. I was #9 of 25 traders.

Meanwhile, shame on Obama for letting McCain steal this headline... this is what I talk about when I say we need to move forward, past oil. This is a good start. Much better than ethanol...

Going surfing (again).

Pass

Okay, so I passed my exam and I'm free (starting tomorrow) to trade the 4-letter names. The market should just send me a million bucks and save us all time... it's clear I'm gonna start killing it now.

In reality, it seems a little slow today. The RO is getting demolished and volume seems lame. In fact, it sounds like most of them are going golfing and taking the rest of the day off...

Good surf here for the next few days. I plan on "killing that" as well... Not going to force anything.

POLITICAL ASIDE: This is a bad position for Obama to take... I hope it evolves.

Friday, June 20, 2008

They Might Be Giants, "Don't Let Start"

"Wake up and smell the catfood in your bank account."

Indeed.



Meanwhile... RIP, iBC.

Virtual Office, -$201. Dow, -220.40, 11,842.69.

Timmay, $175 on 3000 shares traded.
Me, $16 on 4000 shares traded.
Denarii, -$79 on 6400 shares traded.
OBAT, -$126 on 3400 shares traded.
Tokyo, -$187 on 3019 shares traded.


The VO traded like a bunch women today. No volume, no risk taken, and no profits to show for it. Who needs Equine? Face it... we're a bunch of girls.

Not so for my RO. The midday data broke down like this... leader was up $10,175 and the laggard was down $2291. Remember, those numbers are gross. To make that kind of money, you have to trade a few hundred thousand shares typically, so commissions eat some of that up. I was #12 of 23 traders today...

Anyway, it was a somewhat eventful week for the market as we finally busted through 12k on the Dow. Volume today was ridiculous because of all the expirations. We traded over 2 billion. Expect more of the same next week, with the Russell Rebalancing.

I can't wait to get this exam out of the way so I can focus on trading again. See you Monday.

Don't "Get" My Sense Of Humor?

Well, bad news for you. You most likely have some significant damage to your parahippocampal gyrus.


-caveman

You're an unevolved idiot. A caveman, if you will.

Tim Russert On The Daily Show

I'll be too busy today for posting until the VO. So until then, here's an old Daily Show clip with Tim Russert.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Vampire Weekend, "A-Punk"

These guys making my alma mater proud... great band, very original.

Virtual Office, $26. Dow, +34.03, 12,063.09.

Me, $75 on 2800 shares traded.
Tokyo, $55 on 2201 shares traded.
OBAT, $18 on 5400 shares traded.
Timmay, -$60 on 2000 shares traded.
Denarii, -$62 on 5400 shares traded.

On a seemingly quiet day, my RO completely kicked ass. The head man (same guy all week, btw) was up $11,684, while the low man on the day lost $837. Overall, the traders were up over $30,000 on the day. Two guys accounted for $20k of that, though. Something about oil shorts. I was #14 of 25 traders today.

Anyway, for the VO, it was quiet. I studied and surfed more than I traded. I guess I won't be back at full swing, focused entirely on trading, until next week. Despite my small gain, I was very happy to break my lame 3-day losing streak.

Tomorrow look out for the quarterly expirations...

See you manana. Again, no daily post as I'm focused elsewhere. But I'll take the opportunity to post a good music video, since I made money... no more bad music.

More Barack Obama Rumors

Interesting...

My favorite... "Barack Obama's skin is the color of AMERICAN SOIL."

Poundcake

I don't like to fly, but a couple of weeks ago, I had no choice but to fly.

It's mostly a control thing. I like to feel as if I'm in control, and when I have to sit, in one place, for hours, I am being controlled by the situation and not vice versa.

Incidentally,, I think it's why I took to the occupation of trading. Yes, it's stressful to not make money, or worse, to lose money, but at least (in theory) I'm in control. I'm losing money because of decisions that only I can make. I find a stock to trade, I click "buy," I click "sell," and I decide what quantity. There's really nothing outside of my control.

Well, that's not entirely true. There's Esiggy. It "loses data" and goes down all the time, and that's why they suck. I hate Esiggy because I have no control over Esiggy.

And, let's face it, their customer service is the worst.

Anyway, back to flying. I'm here at LaGuardia, sitting in a pretty empty terminal with time to kill and anxiety to burn. I haven't flown in nearly 5 years. There are trees in large white square pots lining the terminal with it's short blue rugs and pale gray walls. The seats are also pale gray and mostly stained. There is a trapped bird, a House Sparrow of course, hopping on the blue rug avoiding the chrome garbage bins.

What must that bird be thinking?

Anyway, shit... I have time and I digress. Judy is next to me, in her stained gray chair, reading The Yoga Journal and lightly bouncing her foot.

She loves to fly. Absolutely loves it.

Meanwhile, I'm here scribbling nervously into a small pad with large earphones on my head glancing up now and then to see who is walking down the terminal. I'd say that conservatively, 90% of the people are fat. It's disgusting. Worse, it's 90 degrees and humid and they're all wearing jean shorts and t-shirts.

Anyway, let me get back to the beginning... you know what my sister-in-law calls all the fat pasty people (women, specifically) of America? "POUNDCAKE." As in, "check out that poundcake in the jean shorts eating that donut."


-"poundcake #1327"

But you know, Judy got her "feet done" for the wedding we're going to and she told me about how the salon was like a factory, with all these women getting something "done" while reading magazines like Allure, wide-eyed, trying to find ways to improve the way they look.

She said there was a 5-year old girl in there. Made me think about our 3.5 year old. Made me think about her trying to fit into someone else's idea about "how you should look" and it got me depressed and even a little angry.

I thought, well, better to just be happy with who you are, and with your body image. The beauty factory is just as scary as the "poundcake," but in a different way.

To be continued... probably after my exam.

This Blog Is Clean

It was a wild scene here at Dinosaur Trader blog last night. I'll have you know, I'm a control freak and don't like other people messing with my blog.

But it's over now. The iBCers are gone and peace has been restored. I never thought they'd leave. Check below for how they were dispelled from my illustrious third tier haven.