Monday, February 25, 2008

Are Stocks Male, Or Female?

In all of the offices I worked in, they were male. As in, "that guy is a fucking dick!" However, when bloggers write about stocks, they tend to make them female.

So for you, are stocks male or female? Please vote in the poll.

Maybe Next Time... They'll Walk!

I hate SUVs. However, I love it when stupid SUV drivers think they're in some car commercial but then get into trouble.

Last summer, some woman in a white Cadillac Escalade drove it onto the beach and got stuck in the sand. Walking by it and laughing made me very, very happy.


SUV Loses Traction And Slips Off A Cliff - Watch more free videos

Art Cashin's Comments, Feb. 25th 2008

Art, what's going to break us out of this range?

Firm up that Ambak deal quick or the rumor mongers will be out saying that it's going to fall through. Also, we have lots of data this week and Bernanke will be speaking in front of Congress.
If our elected officials will stop hamming for the camera, perhaps they can take him through the FOMC minutes.

Comments on the Visa IPO? Is it a good sign?

The interesting thing is that it's going to eat up a lot of sideline cash, and that's going to lock things up. Also, keep an eye on Greenspan's comments this morning... he's talking about zero growth in the US.

Morning Link Love

Just one today since I'm late in getting to my desk...

Good Morning

Time: 7:33
Mood: Dark

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Study Your Trades

I went through each of my trades on Friday. While I made money, it was only because of the "Gasparino Lottery" at the end of the day and not because of any legitimate trading skill. Here's what I learned.
  • I’m still adding to positions wrong. It’s okay to add to a position when it’s going in my favor. However, adding after a position corrects back close to my entry is a losing strategy even if that position is technically still a winner. 
  • Don’t trade thin stocks in the hybrid market. The odds are too stacked against you with the spreads and illiquidity being what they are.
  • Unless a trade looks perfect, a major news story breaks, or there is excellent volume in the market, DO NOT TRADE between 12 and 2. This is free time. Move away from the monitors and read a book or something… seriously…
  • In a choppy market environment, don’t short the first breakdown or breakout. Often the stock will chop back up to your entry. If the level holds the second time, then enter the trade. Of course, in a market with good momentum and volume, this rule would change.
  • Short failed breakouts. If a stock attempts to break out of a base and then stalls, heads back into the base and breaks that base, short it. It’s been working well in this environment.
  • Know the bigger picture. I wasted $250 on Friday trying to short DV for a break of $44. Each time I tried it, I lost 25 or 30 cents. Meanwhile, a quick glance at a 15 minute graph would have showed that even if he broke $44, he most likely would have found support at $43.40. So I was risking 25 cents for a possible gain of 60 cents… that’s just not enough incentive…
So, more of the same... trading and hopefully evolving.  Working hard to keep a positive outlook but it's been a brutal month.  I'm working for a strong close this week. We'll see.

Note To Ralph Nader: Go Away!

Now, truth be told, I voted for this guy in 2000. However, since I don't live in a "swing state" I knew my vote didn't really matter anyway. I did it as a protest because I knew Bush was a nightmare and I hate Joe Lieberman (Gore's running mate in 2000).


-Ralph Nader's car, circa 2000

However, one reason why George Bush has had the opportunity to ruin our country for the last 8 years is because Gore lost Florida, where there were plenty of Nader supporters. I mean, Gore also lost his home state of Tennessee, which is ridiculous and not Nader's fault, but still...

We don't need you this time Mr. Nader. You will take votes away from Obama, effectively handing John McCain the presidency.

Do something else... like disappear.

UPDATE: Here's a link to the NY Times article about his entry into the race.

Friday, February 22, 2008

Weezer, "El Scorcho"



NOTE: "Win" an attack from Retardo.

Charlie Gasparino Bailed Out Dinosaur Trader

Charlie Gasparino, of CNBC, that glorious business news channel, bailed my poor ass out today at 3:25.

He said that the bond insurer ABK will be bailed out this weekend. As some dude said on CNBC earlier this morning, "somebody has to bail out somebody soon." Indeed.

Anyway, at 3:25 I was down $500 and feeling sorry for myself. My big loss on the day was in CW.



I'm calling that a "modified ass rape" as opposed to the run of the mill "ass rape" because of the little bar between the spike down and spike up. That tiny little green bar in between the big red and big green bar represents hope. Dashed hope.

I short the stock because on the daily, it had come down to $42 a number of times. With the market weak and the stock near the number, I thought a break would at least be a "safe" trade. However, I made the rookie error of not noticing how incredibly thin this stock trades.

So I broke a cardinal rule of trading post hybrid market, "thou shalt not trade thin stocks." I got some pretty bad slippage on my outs. So I lost $244.

Another nightmare for me today was DV. The stock was trading awfully today and I should have just stayed away... I lost another $240 there.

I won't even talk about my Gasparino longs. I'm embarassed I only made $700 during the rally. Everything ripped. My best, was AGO.



Anyway, I have a long weekend ahead of me. I'm going to go through each of my trades made today. EVERY DAMN ONE! Because I'm getting sick of this shit.

Meanwhile, the VO was late because after the close, we met with a life insurance dude. Talk about a guy with no sense of humor! He asked me if I used tobacco products and I told him, straight-faced, "only when I'm drunk and high." Judy spit her coffee out but the guy didn't crack a smile. Perhaps he's heard it like 1000 times before... I dunno, I thought it was funny.

This weekend, during a quiet moment, be happy.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $173
Best, AGO, $144
Worst, CW, -$244

17,400 shares traded.
16 stocks traded. 11 winners, 5 losers.

Virtual Office, $1268. SPX, +8.50, 1355.50.

Dehtrader, $481 on 7450 shares traded.
OBAT, $353 on 10,800 shares traded.
Sanglucci, $173 on 17,000 shares traded.
Me, $173 on 17,400 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $89 on 300 shares traded.
Wincity, $18 on 400 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Timmay, no trades.
Denarii, -$19 on 600 shares traded.


Charlie Fucking Gasparino... the man responsible for the 250 point end of day rally in the Dow.

All I have to say is, a lot of people are going to call for that dude's head should the bond insurers not get their bailout this weekend.

Anyway, before the market freaked out there at 3:25, it was a slow grinder of a day. We made a strong move down in the morning, but on no volume, and then churned until the Gasparino rally ensued at 3:25.

We traded just over 1.4 billion shares on the NYSE and the VIX dropped a point, to 24.06.

Our new member Ainkurn made enough to go out to eat. Ducati, was AWOL on his first day... never a promising sign. Perhaps he didn't like the video. For now I'll assume we're having email issues... for whatever reason, his email travels at 1997 Internet speed.

Have a sweet fucking weekend.

Maria Bartiromo Loves Dennis Kneale

The VO will be late...

Meanwhile, Dennis Kneale just said, "Instead of the NYT being called the 'gray lady' they should call it 'the lousy old tart.'

And Maria giggled like a little schoolgirl.

Shoot me.

Ducati Rejoins VO

As many of you know, Ducati quit "the Fly's" piece of shit blog a couple of weeks ago when "the Fly" exposed Ducati's voting record in the Peanut Gallery.

Unfortunately, that left Ducati blogless and I was forced to fire him from the VO.

In the last couple of weeks, it was unclear what had become of Ducati. As it turns out, he was working to become a poet, somewhat in the vein of Willam Burroughs... below, you will find exlusive footage of him performing his poem "I Fuck Dead Pigs." (Note... NSFW)



With that, I welcome Ducati back to the VO. May his new blog be successful.

Ainkurn Joins The VO

Part of why I started the VO is to make myself feel better when I have bad days.

Like yesterday for example... I got smoked, but Dehtrader and Equine got smoked even more. So while it sucks that I got smoked, I say to myself, well, at least I'm not those guys!

Anyway, here's a new member to pad the lower depths of the VO. I mean, check out the name of their blog, 10kthrownaway. They need to speak with the "gold-toothed one" about the power of names.

Now, before you watch the exclusive footage, let me break it down for you.

The VO is underground in an undisclosed location near the center of the earth. (Incidentally, the office of the Vice President, Dick Cheney, is nearby. Sometimes I bump into him when I'm out to get lunch. He's a Dick.)

Anyway, so Ainkurn was riding the special underground train (which we've cleverly and uniquely named, the "subway") for the first time with some of the other VOers. He saw Equine and started acting tough... like he'd never seen a girl before. So Sanglucci, (the "bouncer" of the VO) stepped up and taught him a quick lesson.



Welcome Ainkurn.

News on the other new member will be released shortly...

Morning Links (the faceplant is sweet, BTW)

Good Morning

Time: 7:43
Mood: Hesitant

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Hillary and Obama Debate in Texas.

It's on CNN. Discuss...



UPDATE: It's over. I thought he demolished her... or really, she didn't demolish him. CNN is saying that last statement by her was effective... I dunno, I thought it was crazy sounding...

Unfortunate Japanese Candlestick Formations

I have to make this quick. First of all, my inflated shares traded today was a result of me bumping up my share positions in a number of trades. It's not like a placed more trades, I just placed bigger trades.

I started the day off well with a stock off my watchlist. I wanted to see CMI clear 2-day resistance at $53.13. It opened at $53.15 and I picked it up after it ran and consolidated a little, near $53.50. I caught almost the whole move with 500 shares, selling most over $54.50.



I gave a little back later in the day, when the chart formed an unfortunate (and unfortunately common) candlestick pattern the Japanese call the "ass rape." As you know, I'm reading a book on candlestick charting right now. The problem with this formation is that you don't know it's an actual "ass-rape" until after the fact.

My big loser today was GG. The reason why it was such a big loser for me was because it held such promise as a trade, and I sized in, with 1500 shares. Here, I'll let the chart explain...



It sucked, but I'd do it again. Why? Well, first of all, $40 was a breakout point on the daily graph. Also, GG reported earnings last night and was showing relative strength versus the other gold stocks and the market. The reason why I lost more than I'm accustomed to in the trade is because I had more shares than I'm accustomed to. I sold 500 at $39.86, 500 at $39.80 and 500 at $39.70. So on average, I lost a little under 20 cents on my shares. Not a disaster. Still, I lost $350 all told in the stock.

I also managed to have a few other losers over $200. MON, KMT and the piece of shit known as SWC. In fact, we see the "ass rape" pattern again (this time in reverse) in SWC in the late afternoon.



I was short 2000 shares of SWC going into that "ass-raping." While I had the strength to hold onto half, I let go of 1000 near the high of the move, at $18.40, because I suck like that.

Anyway, gotta go. Will be back later to discuss the Obama/Hillary debate with an "open thread" if all works out.

Here's the stats:
P&L, -$546
Best, CMI, $390
Worst, GG, -$351

45,800 shares traded.
18 stocks traded. 9 winners, 9 losers.

Virtual Office, -$2914. SPX, -12.50, 1346.50.

OBAT, $151 on 13,200 shares traded.
Denarii, $63 on 1200 shares traded.
Wincity, $18 on 400 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Me, -$546 on 45,800 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$1100 on 5900 shares traded.
Equine, -$1500 on 3100 shares traded.


The VO is in a tailspin.

There were only 2 people down in my real life office today, me and one other guy. So, in short, the VO sucked today. Except OBAT. He's probably already at the dentist, getting a new gold tooth or something.

We traded less than 1.5 billion again today and the VIX rose .84 to 25.24.

Anyway, again, I'm a little confused by the current action in the market. I'm bearish, but this volume on the downside is pretty lame. Perhaps "the Fly" is right and bears are a bunch of tired, cranky, old men. They sure seem that way right now. I mean, all the headlines are bad and the market isn't even close to the January lows.

Well, at least I have Ragin's gay stock contest to look forward to. My pick (short SWC) is rising just in time to drop for next week.

Oh, and let's hear it for BDC and his amazing fucking call on SMTX. And with Castro out of power in Cuba, perhaps his SHERF will begin to move as well. He's famous, as stock message boards all over the Internets are heaping praises upon him and his analysis.

That's what you get here at Dinosaur Trader's blog. Quality.

NOTE: We will have a new VOer starting tomorrow.

UPDATE: Make that TWO new VOers tomorrow...

Morning Link Love

Builders Go Green!

This Blog Is Clean

For a poll that was only open 6 hours or so, late at night, the vote total was impressive.

48 of you voted and 27, or 56% voted to keep the old look.

Therefore, I will respect it. The main issue with the blog is fixed... it wasn't loading correctly.

I have saved the blog. Indeed, it was quite an ordeal. Here is exclusive footage of me saving the blog last night (and no, smartass, I'm not the woman).



Meanwhile, I will continue to tweak the way this blog looks... because I'm kind of sick of it. And look at all that wasted space on the left!