Sunday, October 12, 2008

Dinosaur Trader "Premium Content"

Because some of you have asked, I thought I would expand the RO just this once, to show the entire office, and also to show how many trades each trader executed on Friday. I won't be publishing this data again, since honestly, I have a lot of other shit to do on a weekend. But since Friday was historic, and the RO has generated a lot of buzz, I figured I'd appease the masses.

That said, given the current crisis, and the sudden zeal for scapegoating, I'm considering changing the format of the RO away from the actual P&L figures to something more based on relative performance and a point system. I mean, can you imagine the furor if some idiot took some of these figures out of context to make a point about speculators? Call me paranoid, but the political winds are shifting, and I'm just being prudent until this all blows over.

So anyway, I'm just going to do this list in the following format... Trader, P&L, total shares traded, and total trades. From that, you can do some division and figure out average position size, profit per share, etc. Enjoy!

Trader B, $299,723 on 1,516,780 shares traded. 5,880 trades.
Trader D, $175,271 on 1,047,600 shares traded. 3,765 trades.
Trader A, $61,677 on 588,192 shares traded. 2,258 trades.
Trader F, $41,831 on 314,800 shares traded. 1,975 trades.
Trader S, $23,140 on 119,800 shares traded. 775 trades.
Trader E, $22,010 on 229,100 shares traded. 1,361 trades.
Trader G, $14,653 on 161,000 shares traded. 1,279 trades.
Trader P, $11,009 on 495,100 shares traded. 2,122 trades.
Trader L, $10,107 on 102,200 shares traded. 669 trades.
Trader J, $8,122 on 93,000 shares traded. 714 trades.
Trader K, $5,936 on 181,200 shares traded. 964 trades.
Trader X, $5,191 on 26,000 shares traded. 149 trades.
Trader C, $3,609 on 420,300 shares traded. 1,992 trades.
Trader H, $1,570 on 500 shares traded. 1 trade.
Trader O, $649 on 26,200 shares traded. 175 trades.
Trader Q, $534 on 10,600 shares traded. 78 trades.
Trader 7, $322 on 5,200 shares traded. 67 trades.
Trader M, -$860 on 0 shares traded. 0 trades.
Trader U, -$1,064 on 0 shares traded. 0 trades.
Trader 3, -$1,289 on 5,000 shares traded. 39 trades.
Trader T, -$1,294 on 6,400 shares traded. 52 trades.
Trader R, -$1,616 on 103,482 shares traded. 650 trades.
Trader I, -$2,083 on 53,200 shares traded. 383 trades.
Trader 6, -$2,136 on 0 shares traded. 0 trades.
Trader Z, -$2,651 on 671,310 shares traded. 1,954 trades.
Trader N, -$3,046 on 23,200 shares traded. 166 trades.
Trader V, -$5,526 on 95,600 shares traded. 535 trades.

NOTE: Traders that show "0 shares traded and 0 trades" are swing accounts that didn't execute on Friday.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

The Government Marries The Banks

Let's see how this turns out, shall we?



Also, when I get some time this weekend, I'm going to post some bonus stats from the RO from Friday's trade.

Friday, October 10, 2008

2Pac, "Keep Ya Head Up"

If I was playing strictly by the rules, I would have picked today's song because Trader B didn't double the #2 guy, Trader D. However, since the dude made such sick money, I decided to give him today's song. But then he skipped out of the office and didn't choose. Instead, Trader D picked this tune. Enjoy it.

The RO Report, "Historic" Edition

I'm assuming you know what happened in the market today, but just in case you got drunk early, here's a quick rundown.

We drop 800 points in the first 5 minutes of trade. In the next half hour, we rip, and take back 600. By noon, we've dropped 700 off our highs. For the next 3 hours, we trade in a relatively tame 400 point range. Then, at 3pm, we're off to the races, jumping an amazing 900 points in 40 minutes. At 3:40, the MOCs come out predominately to the downside, and we drop a quick 500.

I won't say it was a "rollercoaster ride," because that implies it was fun. It was sick, and it was historic. If you traded today, you can say that you traded the single most volatile day ever recorded in stock market history. The high on the VIX was 76.94.

In short, it wasn't a day for the light-hearted... not even close.

The volume was big. 3 billion on the NYSE. I think it would have been even larger, but to make the day even more beleaguering, in the last 20 minutes, there were some street-wide data problems. A number of traders in my office got really, really screwed because of computer and data feed issues. On a day like today, that kind of goes with the territory, but it still sucks.

The morning felt very much like a bottom, but it came too early. The fact that we drifted back to the lows and then had that ridiculous rally at the end of the day, is a good sign. The one problem, was that nauseating 500 point drop in the last 20 minutes.

That shouldn't be overlooked and it's quite possible we need to go lower before this is over.

So going into next week, I have no strong feel. Given the close, I think that perhaps the best way to make this stick, would be to drop a few hundred points below Dow 7882, today's low, and then snap back to close at the high of the day. However, it's also possible that 7882 was the bottom afterall... sorry, but at this point, only time will tell.

Some good news over the weekend could help to clarify the situation.

Anyway, it was an excellent day for the RO, especially for Traders B and D, who sprayed, massively, all over the entire office. Out of 27 traders today, 17 finished gross positive, or 63%. 9 traders finished up over $10,000 gross, however, 9 traders also lost more than $1,000 gross. I'll take that ratio any day.

I was #5 of 27, or, a motherfucking boss.

Here are today's Bosses:

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader B, $299,723 on 1.5 million shares traded.

2. Trader D, $175,271 on 1 million shares traded.
3. Trader A, $61,677 on 558k shares traded.
4. Trader F, $41,831 on 315k shares traded.
5. Trader S, $23,140 on 120k shares traded.


And the Manservants:

"Chambermaid" - Trader V, -$5,526 on 95,600 shares traded.

2. Trader N, -$3,046 on 23,200 shares traded.
3. Trader Z, -$2,651 on 671k shares traded.
4. Trader I, -$2,083 on 53,200 shares traded.
5. Trader 6, -$2,022 on 100 shares traded.

Get some rest.

A View From The NYSE

Over on Ray's blog, (he's a big fan of Dinosister, btw) I asked him what the feeling has been like on the exchange in the last few days. He offered this very eloquent response.

I'm usually there for the open and the close, and the faces I see at those times are driven, intently watching and working the news stocks. There's a sense that the news is huge every day, and that it's all around us, from the feds, from the companies, from overseas, all at the same time. People are walking a little faster and talking both a little faster and a little louder. The sound of a broker tapping a stylus on his wireless order-management device is a little more staccato. Brokers seem like they've got a lot more orders to work, or bigger orders. There are more and bigger crowds around specialists. It feels like people are in overdrive.

The Crash Of 2008 Versus 1987

Here's a link to the intraday chart of the Dow when it crashed in 1987.

We'll see how today ends. My guess is that we're not done yet, but it's hard to position aggressively one way or the other right now.

Hey Larry Kudlow... Where's Goldilocks Now?


-Shill.

Fire this idiot, CNBC. He has only succeeded at muddying the conversation for the last year.

Seriously people, let's start a campaign. Let CNBC know you don't appreciate the bullshit.

ESIGNAL SUCKS

John Lennon, "Nobody Told Me"

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Everyone Take A Big Breath

Listen, can I just say something here for a second?

It's gonna be okay.

The stock market can crash and you can lose all your money in it, but only YOU can lose your own perspective.

People are freaking out. But don't let that mob mentality, exacerbated by the idiots on the TV, get to you.

And I'm not just talking about the market. Let's get control of our emotions with these fucking politicians. They're all assholes. Democrats and Republicans.

Anyway, here's a song about perspective. The message is, "Nothing's gonna change my world." Remember, you're in charge... keep your emotions in check.

Nikkei Down 11% In Early Trade

It's not pretty.

Wilco, "Ashes Of American Flags"

Art Cashin, Trader's Edge, CNBC, October 9, 2008

Here's a link to Art's interview this morning. Needless to say, I agree with him almost 100%.

"We have several tough years ahead of us."

The RO Report, "The End Is Nigh" Edition

You want to see what capitulation selling looks like? Take a look at any number of stock charts today. The blood is officially on the streets.

I don't normally do this, because it would be really boring if I did it everyday, but here are some very important statistics. Since September 1st, check this out:

  • The SPY is down 31%.
  • The Dow is down 26%.
  • Crude oil is down 28%.
  • The banking index is down 26% (despite a "government sponsored" rally in mid September).
  • The QQQQ is down 33%.
  • Also, the VIX touched 64.92 today. ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

I could go on, and on. Shit is bad, really bad. So bad, it doesn't feel like it's gonna end.

But it has to and it will.

I was looking for a sell-off to around these levels just a few days ago. If it weren't a Friday tomorrow, I could imagine gapping lower and finally rallying... however, who wants a gigantic rally just ahead of the weekend?

I can no longer tell... I don't feel confident at all in this market. It's quite possible that we have a piker rally tomorrow and then drop another 30% on Monday or Tuesday of next week. Don't think it can't happen. This is some historic shit. After witnessing, up close and personal, the massive sell-off into the close today, I definitely feel like we could see Dow 6,000.

However, the fact that I actually felt that today, means we're near the end.

The fear... is here... IN FORCE.

Really... it's just the way this game works.

I don't give advice on these matters, but I can say for sure that over the next couple of days, I'll be thinking hard about what I'm going to buy once I see that first BIG green VOLUME bar come into the e-minis on the upside. That's your tell... when you see that gigantic volume come in... don't trust any rally before you see that volume.

What I've learned recently, is that when the VIX is over 60, ANY FUCKING THING CAN HAPPEN TO YOU WHEN YOU'RE TRADING AND PROBABLY WILL. WORSE, NO ONE WILL CARE!!!

My sympathies to those who are getting creamed in their retirement accounts. I'd like you baby-boomers to take to the streets in Washington already... this shit is wrong.

Okay, enough of that. The RO, got very, very bloodied today in early trade. Some traders made it out of the mess, and some did not. I, for one, almost got my clock COMPLETELY cleaned only about 5 minutes from the close because I thought we had bottomed... we had not. Luckily, I recovered.

Out of 26 traders today, 15, or 57%, finished gross positive. The top 12 traders all made over $2,000 gross, however, the bottom 9 all lost over $1,000 gross. It was hectic. I was #9 of 26. Despite the ample bloodletting, the Bosses took control at the end of the day, and get top billing.

Here are the Bosses:

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader C, $69,778 on 499k shares traded.

2. Trader P, $61,885 on 223k shares traded.
3. Trader Z, $53,801 on 263k shares traded.
4. Trader D, $30,906 on 519k shares traded.
5. Trader B, $22,751 on 1.3 million shares traded.


And the Manservants:

"Chambermaid" - Trader A, -$59,999 on 422k shares traded.

2. Trader K, -$15,027 on 165k shares traded.
3. Trader E, -$13,146 on 94,600 shares traded.
4. Trader M, -$3,547 on 500 shares traded.
5. Trader 6, -$3,382 on 200 shares traded.

NOTE: I just want to extend my congratulations to "Trader C" for being Chambermaid yesterday and Lucky Pierre today. That boy is a sexual deviant.

PANIC!

Howard discusses panic, and you get a gratuitous midday song. Enjoy!

Bartiromo On Colbert

How'd I miss this one?

The View From 1987

Big hair, big nails, and big swings in the market.

One Positive To The Financial Crisis

Maybe less golfers? God I hate golfers...


Hilarious Astronaut Pranks Old Golfers - Watch more free videos

The Financial Crisis Explained

(h/t "Trader E")

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Fleet Foxes, "He Didn't Understand"

No one sprayed the entire office, so, my choice.



QUESTION: What happened to Bluedog's blog?