Monday, June 30, 2008
Fuck Balloons
My surfing buddy is away. Today, I drove to the beach at 5:30, alone, and didn't go in. The wind was strong onshore and the swell was just a bit too wild and loose for my taste.
So I picked up wet helium balloons from the shore.
"Happy Birthday!" "Congratulations!" "You're 50!"
Instead, they should just say "Future Beach Litter!"
I found 5 balloons in about 10 minutes, tangled around seaweed or blown into the dunes. With a light drizzle, gray skies and blown-out surf, it made for a moody beginning to the day.
-Evil children and their environmental weapon of choice.
This place is full of tourists this time of year. Some guy pulled into the lot in an SUV with out-of-state plates (and incidentally, given where the wind was blowing from, his state was probably responsible for the balloon litter). Anyway, he ambled over to me while I was picking up a balloon and said, referring to the surf, not the beach, "When do you think it's gonna clean up?"
I said, "Probably never. The wind is going to be onshore, forever." I was kind of being a dick, but it was also true. There was no chance of clean surf today.
So it was with that darkness that I arrived home to take a look at the market.
Since it was the last day of the month, I wasn't looking to take too much risk. I'm solidly green, and happy to take at least a little check home. So I decided to just focus like a "frikken laser beam" on the HCPG plays.
MEE gapped up a bit, consolidated quickly, and broke out. It was a fast trade, and really all I needed.
I also caught a nice little move in MUR, scratched in JEC, and lost a bit in SU.
Nothing else.
Anyway, since this is the first day without the VO, I feel the need to also add a bit of market commentary here. However, since I barely traded today (and probably won't trade too much all week, since it's a holiday week and should be slow) I don't have much to offer.
So how about this for market commentary? All things must pass.
I also haven't figured out how many other statistics (besides my newly absent P&L) I'm going to share. In short, this blog will be evolving again over the next few weeks. It'll take some time for me to figure out what to do with my free time and thought. Suggestions? Fire away.
Finally, if you're looking for the VO (and admit it, crackhead, you enjoyed it) you can find it starting tomorrow at Tokyo Trader's fine site.
It's like this... you know how you have a favorite band and you really liked their first couple of albums but then they changed their sound? Well it's like that around here. I just got a new drummer (old one died, overdose) and I'll be experimenting with some new sounds.
Some good music forthcoming.
A Short Day, Goodbye June
I made a few trades right off the bat this morning, took my customary small monies from the stock market, and invested the gained confidence right back into my "trading confidence" account.
The account is rapidly growing in interest.
I will detail said growth in an upcoming June review post.
For now, I will take my daughter down to the bay beach, stand her up on my surfboard and push it around, all the while making swishy noises with my mouth.
We have beautiful weather here and she's not getting any younger.
Junior Mance, "Don't Cha Hear Me Callin' To Ya"
Let's start off this week on a good note.
And listen... Tokyo Trader has adopted the VO. Him, Timmay and Denarii will continue to report their daily P&Ls over there. In addition, Tokyo is actively seeking out new members. I urge you to visit his well-written and interesting blog. It's definitely worth a daily visit.
Friday, June 27, 2008
Russell Rebalancing, June 27th, 2008 (Final Bump)
The past couple of years, the Rebalancing of the Russell 3000 has been a big event for traders. It is a day of huge, exaggerated MOCs and wild moves in otherwise quiet stocks.
In other words, it can make or break you.
So, to get out ahead of the game, I've found the important dates to follow this year.
I'll "bump" this post as we get closer to the dates. I just wanted you to know, loyal Internet readers, that I'm on top of this shit.
So, here are the dates to watch:
June 13th: Preliminary additions and deletions to the Russell Global Index and the Russell 3000 published.
June 20 and 27: Updates to the list of additions and deletions.
June 27: Reconstitution final after the close of the US markets.
They Might Be Giants, "Road Movie To Berlin"
So this is the last day I'll be posting the VO for the foreseeable future. Here's a wistful tune to mark the occasion.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Virtual Office, $486. Dow, -358.41, 11,453.42.
Me, $253 on 15,000 shares traded.
OBAT, $159 on 6000 shares traded.Tokyo, $110 on 8 shares traded.
Denarii, -$36 on 600 shares traded.
The market got smashed.
I have to say, I'm a little sick of making $200 a day. Worse, I can't afford to be making $200 a day for too much longer. Even worser, I'm not even averaging $200 a day... more like half that... almost. In general, it's the worstest ever.
Shoot me.
I called out a 9 point drop in MA today before it happened and took 50 cents. I'm pretty awful. It's a wonder I'm not panicking more... I must be in denial.
I may need to go back on hiatus soon. However, instead of letting the blog just die, I'll try and get someone from my office to contribute... I however, may need to just get back to focusing on trading again. I hate to do it, because I like to blog, but I'm fucking sick of being a mook.
Developing...
The SCOTUS? More Like SCROTUM.
This is even more depressing than my trading.
Couple this with their other ruling yesterday, and I have to say, I think our Supreme Court is a big scrotum.
The Trader's Edge With Art Cashin, June 26, 2008
Here's a brief paraphrase of what Art had to say today.
CNBC: The FED yesterday, GS today... do you see any silver linings?
Art: No. In fact, I'll bet the FED cuts before it raises this year.
CNBC: Wow... really?
Art: Well, I think GS is so convicted that there's gonna be some trouble and the rumor mongers are out again. And not just the in the financial companies but the automobile companies are in such trouble, that there's a rumor going around that one of them may be filing for chapter 11.
CNBC: We've heard that rumor too... sounds far fetched, no?
Art: Well, you never say never these days.
CNBC: Art will be guest hosting for 2 hours on Monday.
Art: TV is a vast wasteland.
The Daily Show Discusses the EPA's Report On Greenhouse Gases
"The White House Is Treating America's Environmental Policy Like A Spam Boner Pill Ad"
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Fleet Foxes, "Tiger Mountain Peasant Song" (live)
Both upcoming NY area shows sold out... if any of you know how to get tickets, please write me. Seriously. These guys are so damn good. They're gonna be huge.
Trimming The Fat
I had a couple of decent trades today, in JRCC and ATW specifically. However, I want to focus on something that is definitely holding my P&L back... the shitty little losses I keep amassing.
In order to better focus on eliminating these shitty little trades, I'm going to start reporting my broken down P&L. I'll report my winners and losers as usual, and add up the total dollar amount of each.
Like, for example, I jumped the gun in AET, WCC and BG today. My three losses in those stocks added up to about $150. Nothing disasterous to be sure, but when I'm making $200 a good day, I have to figure out where all the headwinds are.
I've been over my inability to hold winners... that's been a recurring theme of this blog since, well... forever, and my most obvious failing. My other (within the current style I'm trading) is my trade selection. I'm just taking too many shitty trades still, without crystal clear entries and exits. I need to just stop that and focus on the 3 or 4 excellent trades that seem to present themselves each day.
Anyway, my best stock of the day was JRCC. It was my first trade in a 4-letter name with my new company and it was very satisfying. Mostly because it worked so quickly and easily. There was no retest of my entry or chop. It just cratered at my entry point. Of course, I covered it all too early.
My other decent trade came in ATW, another HCPG play. This was good just because once again, it worked right away. The reason I sold "early" instead of waiting for the $112 target was because the $OSX was so weak all day. I rather doubted the stock would reach the target, so I just took the easy money.
Anyway, I've been treading water the last few days with trading and my focus has been elsewhere. But I want to finish the month strong. There are 3 trading days left, and I'm setting the (sadly) ambitious goal of $300 a day average so I can hit the $2000 mark on the month.
With the Russell Rebalancing on Friday however, anything can happen. I'm still undecided about whether I should go at it lunatic style and take massive risk, or if I should play it close to my chest and take my small gains for the month... we'll see.
Here's the stats:
P&L, $225
Best, JRCC, $256
Worst, BG, -$51
4000 shares traded.
3 winners for $409.
6 losers for $188.
Virtual Office, -$2525. Dow, +4.40, 11,811.83.
Me, $226 on 4000 shares traded.
OBAT, vacation.
Denarii, -$86 on 6400 shares traded.
Tokyo, $-2665 on 961 shares traded.
FED day! Yay! (silence...)
I hate FED days, as do most traders in my office. It's just this expectation overhanging trade all day long... that said, the usual suspects in the RO made size. One dude just made 10 points shorting RIMM... and as another ROer said, "the rich get richer."
I don't have any stats for the RO today.
Tokyo got smoked. He had some swing positions that he decided to let go. It happens, but it sucks when it does.
Anyway, here we are mostly through June with a huge event coming on Friday. The suspense builds. Hopefully now that the FED is out of the way, the VO can look forward to some good trade for the next few days to close the month strong.
Summer Songs
We've hit that time of year where it seems like it's 80 degrees and humid everyday. Naturally, there are songs that reflect this type of weather quite nicely.
Below, for your listening pleasure, I've added The Skygreen Leopards, "The Supplication of Fireflies" and The Zombies, "Beachwood Park" to my music collection. As a reminder, you can find all the music I've ever posted to this blog at my Imeem page, or, just click on the labels on the right-hand toolbar.
Anyway, any songs that remind you of summer? Put them in the comment section.
As far as trading goes, I had a decent morning and now I'm gonna go out into the sun to continue with the property clean-up while I wait for the FED numbers at 2:15pm.
My best stock of the day is JRCC, which I caught a nice short on... perhaps these 4-letter stocks will help me out afterall...
Enjoy the music.
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