Thursday, February 28, 2008
Shifting Winds
I haven't had to post a trade disaster since November I think... it's an awful thing to have to do.
But I really fucked up in BG today. My timing was wrong, I was using market orders in a thinly traded stock, I was pissed off... it was a perfectly stupid storm. I lost $1454 in this fucker.
Besides that piece of shit, I didn't have any massive losses... just no real good winners.
I just missed a great trade in EOG at the end of the day... this stock was nuts today. Check out the daily...
I caught one decent trade with Evolution today, a short in TGT below $54.
But overall, my day was a mess. I haven't had one of these in awhile.
Every trader suffers losing days. The most important thing is to absorb the loss with some equanimity, try to learn from it, and move on.
And here's what I'm taking from today... I keep making the same mistakes and I'm not learning shit.
Therefore something is going to change, massively, and soon. Details tomorrow.
Here's the stats:
P&L, -$1869
Best, TGT, $286
Worst, BG, -$1454
36,600 shares traded.
18 stocks traded. 6 winners, 12 losers.
Virtual Office, -$3704. SPX, -14.60, 1365.80.
Ainkurn, $484 on 1100 shares traded.
Ducati, $475 on 1000 shares traded.
Timmay, $318 on 2800 shares traded.
Wincity, $64 on 200 shares traded.
Denarii, $29 on 4400 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
OBAT, -$95 on 11,600 shares traded.
Evolution, -$1396 on 74,800 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$1714 on 10,890 shares traded.
Me, -$1869 on 36,600 shares traded.
Well it wasn't a day for active traders. The VO got smoked, my real office got smoked and everyone differently. Funny, in a way, but not too funny.
Today was just choppy and trade was mostly directionless. The futures were mostly locked in 5 point bands. Volume was again consistent at just under 1.5 billion shares traded and the VIX crept higher and now trades close to 23.50.
Tomorrow is the last day of the month and we get hit with some eco-data. Could be an interesting day. At least, I hope so.
Meanwhile, go see what worked out for Ainkurn. He was the bright light in an otherwise dark VO.
Off to test out the law of gravity.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Dinosaur Trader's Tupperware Party
Just like IBCs Platinum Party, only with Tupperware, poor people and a couple hundred thousand fewer hits.
Thanks to my first 100,000 visitors!
The Doves, "Firesuite"
No daily post tonight... I'll try and recap today's wins and losses in tomorrow's post.
Virtual Office, $937. SPX, -3.30, 1379.50.
Ducati, $1059 on 600 shares traded.
Evolution, $791 on 20,600 shares traded.
Denarii, $119 on 2600 shares traded.
Wincity, $10 on 200 shares traded.
OBAT, -$82 on 15,600 shares traded.
Timmay, -$140 on 800 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$179 on 10,410 shares traded.
Ainkurn, -$274 on 650 shares traded.
Me, -$367 on 35,000 shares traded.
The volume in the market really seems to have settled in to a norm. Every day it seems we're trading between 1.4 and 1.5 billion on the NYSE. In a way, I like the consistent volume. I wonder how long this will keep up.
As I posted earlier, the FRE and FNM news really spiked the market midday. Many traders in my office just cleaned up with those trades. Congrats to those who were able to take advantage of that volatility. And speaking of volatility, we got a bounce in the VIX today, up .82 to 22.72.
The VO had a crappy day, but no disasters, so no real problem. Update: Ducati did well...
Finally, everyone hates Gasparino as he's ruined trade in the last hour of the day. You can pretty much count on an irrational spike when he starts to talk. What a mess...
NOTE: Daily post will either be late or non-existent... I'm going out to dinner with the missus. We have a babysitter...
Backing Up Your Blog
Man, I was checking on Ainkurn earlier and I found out that Akalawoo's blog was hacked and all of his information was lost.
Awful.
So listen, here's an easy free program you can use to back up your blog.
If you don't like that one, there are other options here.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Hillary and Obama Debate In Ohio, 9pm MSNBC
Will there be some type of campaign changing moment here for Hillary? If not, the end may be nigh. Discuss.
A Slow Day
I didn't have a bad morning, but oddly enough, the first hour was completely dead. Most of the traders in my real office were smoked and everyone was complaining about lack of follow-through.
I felt the lameness of the market pretty early and I was only trading with small size. Still, even despite my caution, I couldn't get traction because I was taking on more losers (albeit small ones) than winners.
The market finally broke out of its morning range at around 10:45, but even then, violently chopped around for 30 minutes in a 5 point range on the futures. One five minute bar was up 5 points, then the next 5 minute bar was down 5 points. It was a slushy mess.
I was down between $200 and $300.
The market finally got through the wild chop and had a very tradeable rally between 11:30 and 12:20. The problem for me was that I was already tentative as a result of the morning chop, plus we were moving into a normally dead part of the day, so I entered only light positions. But I had some good ones, most notably, GES.
Note, the graph is far too marked up to make any sense of anything.
I also caught breakout longs in TEX and VLO but again, both with small size.
I took it really easy today. Not too much to report. Unless something changes by 4pm, this will be my day. I'm happy with it because I came back from a bad morning. Normally, I make money in the first hour and give it all away. Today I lost money early and was able to get my shit together and eke out a small gain.
UPDATE: I got chopped in the afternoon and gave back $200...
Here's the stats:
P&L, $112
Best, TEX, $167
Worst, UA, -$92
NOTE: Please stop by for the debate open thread tonight. I expect Hillary to pull out all the stops. Could be interesting.
Virtual Office, $1947. SPX, +11.40, 1383.00.
Evolution, $1176 on 55,600 shares traded.
Ducati, $894 on 800 shares traded.
Timmay, $243 on 1600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $189 on 5500 shares traded.
Denarii, $114 on 4200 shares traded.
Me, $112 on 14,600 shares traded.
Ainkurn, $29 on 1050 shares traded.
OBAT, $11 on 11,800 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Wincity, -$100 on 100 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$721 on 23,000 shares traded.
The real office got smoked today. The morning was a chopfest, the afternoon was a chopfest... there were only a few good times to trade today. If you had the discipline to identify those times, and not trade during the chop, you could have made money.
The VIX is dropping out of the sky... it's now down below 22.
Meanwhile, volume was strong in the early going and tailed off in the second half of the day.
Gasparino tried his best to spike the market in the afternoon, but all he did was throw an "ass rape" candle on the futures at around 3:25. It seems that's when he talks every day... I now will watch that time like I watch other economic news, because you never know what the fuck he's going to say.
Hillary In A Bhurka?
If you've been following along, you know that the Drudge Report published a photograph of Obama dressed in traditional Kenyan garb. The photograph was provided by the Clinton campaign. Actually, let me rephrase that... the Clinton campaign cannot confirm or deny that they supplied the photograph.
Along those lines, I've found this photograph that may be Hillary Clinton in a bhurka. Note, even though she is waving an American flag, she is not wearing an American flag lapel pin and therefore, she's not a true patriot.
Furthermore, her car doesn't have that little yellow magnetic ribbon that says "Support Our Troops."
Draw your own conclusions...
NOTE: I'll have an open thread up for the debate tonight. Please stop by if you're watching.
Art Cashin's Comments, February 26, 2008
Only caught the tail end...
Art: ...the big story of '08 could be the price and scarcity of food.
JC: The market keeps going up... anything positive to that?
Art: We've had very thin markets and then yesterday S&P affirms AAA ratings on ABK which may be the most remarkable thing since Lazarus. I mean, ABK was just short of selling body parts to make ends meet and S&P affirms... I think we're at the upper end of the range here, but I think that range will hold.
Morning Link-Love
First of all, the IBD has changed its outlook to "Market in confirmed rally."
- Woodshedder discussing triangles again... could it be because of IBCs new sponsor?
- First it was Timmay and now it's Richard at MtM. Retardo lashes out again!
- Evolution returns!
- Foreclosures up 90% in January. However, check the link below...
- You can't foreclose if you don't own the mortgage. Oops!
- Visa and Mastercard don't make credit card loans, they process transactions for banks that do. No wonder MA has held up so well... the Visa offering is set for late March.
- Obama keeps getting stronger, despite the "batshit crazy" attacks.
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