Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Third Tier, iBC Machine, and Masterful Occurrences

I finished the day higher by a startling .4%.

Turrible, considering I positioned for this move down yesterday. I would have fared well but my port was chagrined via an inane PCLN upgrade. I shorted again at 131 intraday, and am ready to ride this bitch lower or get stopped out any higher.

Today was highly sensual from the perspective of a man long coal stocks. CNX (long a small boatload), WLT, FDG, whatever, just get drunk on wormwood and once you're blind buy 'em already you Canadian sissy. BTU anyone?

Other notes du jour:
LNN got slapped due to rising costs pressuring margins. And I quoteth:

The co is a little concerned that pricing is in an area where it may be making farmers reach some kind of a point of resistance that pricing is getting to a level where its causing issues in making effecting purchasing decisions. Co says though they haven't heard that farmers are ready to pull back or anything regarding a change of their buying behavior based on the current pricing.

You know what that says to me? Short DE, and do it mercilessly.

I added the emphasis to what is known as "corporate speak." No one in charge of managing a stock price, ahem, company will ever come out and directly say what the issue is, but if you listen closely and have an IQ > 40, you should try reading between the lines. IMO, if they "raise the concern," it is essentially a reality already.

Which also corroborates DE's shitty price pattern as of late.

Finally, the glorious iBC Machine Update. So glorious.

In case you ONLY read DT's blog (morbid curiosity?) and haven't yet ventured to our more fecund site, let me explain what the iBC Machine does.

It peers up the market's skirt in a masterful fashion and tells you what's up there, for better or for worse. I don't need to post my track record (I can't, our site is down) but it is impeccable, as it has called nearly every turn in the market with relative impunity.

Today was highlighted by distribution. It wasn't exceptionally heavy, but it was pronounced. This is good and bad. Huge distribution as per my machine might portend some kind of snapback rally, but what we get is death via papercut, rather than guillotine.

In other words, we're probably not done yet to the downside.

The iBC Machine is NEUTRAL meaning that momentum is slowing and more breakouts will fail. Cash and selective shorts should be added, while longs closely watched. A rising tide can't lift all boats when the tide is falling back--this alone week has experienced 50% more sell strength than buy strength, and this is on the back of last weeks 2:1 ratio of selling vs. buying.

The Machine's proprietary Overbought/Oversold oscillator is at 45 on a scale of 0-100, indicating we aren't at an inflection point.

Monthly breadth is still negative, which also indicates distribution. The slowest moving measure of The Machine is still bullish, though it is deteriorating, and is at its relative low.

The iBC Machine isn't signaling an edge for tomorrow's trade, but generally speaking, I am using it's warnings to build cash and shorts in gay ass homo stocks like TSCM.

I will note however that we may trade up into OpEx. Always a possibility. However, I will highlight that there likely won't be strength behind the move, and it should be met with skepticism.


Ragin' Cajun said...

Love DE short.

Dinosaur Trader said...

I see Merlin is back... it can only be a matter of time before I'm left with an empty house and the stale smell of spilled beer.