Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Monday, December 8, 2008
The RO Report, "Solid Move" Edition
While I was expecting a run up to the 50dma in the Dow, I'll admit I wasn't expecting it to happen today. The 50dma was at 8,940. We hit that level in the first half of the day, pulled back, and then made an audacious stab at another important psychological level, Dow 9,000.
That's where the bears really took their stand at the end of the day throwing a 150 swoon into the Dow during the last 20 minutes of the day. I'd expect us to be a little sticky here.
In fact, a pullback to 8,700 or so would be great, if it came on low volume.
I don't watch the VIX much, but does anyone else find it suspicious that it only dropped a little today with all that upside on the indexes? Thoughts from any of you seasoned VIXers?
Anyway, the RO had a sweet day. To really make it special, Trader D "chambermaided" himself.
At one point today, it looked as if we might have our first 100% profitable day... for now, it'll have to stand as a nice goal. Out of 23 traders today, 20 finished gross positive, or 87%. 15 traders made over $1,000 gross while no trader lost over $1,000 gross. Nice. I was #9 of 23.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader B, $30,684 on 501k shares traded.
2. Trader C, $23,586 on 528k shares traded.
3. Trader 10*, $13,689 on 8,700 shares traded.
4. Trader N, $12,888 on 176k shares traded.
5. Trader A, $10,757 on 105k shares traded.
"Chambermaid" - Trader D, -$959 on 446k shares traded.
2. Trader 3, -$169 on 10,400 shares traded.
3. Trader U*, -$31 on 0 shares traded.
4. Trader 11, $5 on 12,600 shares traded.
5. Trader K, $38 on 0 shares traded.
Here it is, your daily "heatmap."
John Thain's Brass Balls And Tin Ears
-Sure he looks dorky, but he has brass balls and tin ears.
Despite the fact that MER stock has plummeted from close to $60 to around $14 in 2008, John Thain is asking for a $10 million bonus.
They used to call him "robot" or something like that... and as I alluded to in the post title, there are some parts of his body that are indeed made of metal.
Anyway, I look forward to a time when bonuses are awarded based on performance again.
DT Wins Again!!!
While lesser bloggers talk about the end of the world, I'm over here wrapped in cozy winter blankets, wearing my Ugg slippers, sipping frothy coffee drinks and nailing bottoms.
As predicted, we've hit the 50dma on the industrials this morning. I now switch my stance from bullish to short term neutral. I feel we're going to do some consolidation here.
Unfortunately, I think this makes for some dull trading for the rest of the week.
Another Person Who Shouldn't Trade
A good stock trading rule is the old, "where there's smoke, there's fire."
In this case, you could say, "if someone is going to use your back as a springboard to do a backflip, AND they have barbed wire strapped around their foot, there's gonna be fire." Smarten up, dude.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Wire, "Outdoor Miner"
I offered Trader D the pick despite his non-spray, out of sheer kindness. But, luckily for you all, he never responded to my song request, so you get good music instead.
I can't get this song out of my head.
The RO Report, "Another Nice Reversal" Edition
You know what makes this rally more convincing than say, the two 900 point one day rips we've had? Both of those rallies were made from short-term reaction bottoms and you could say they were pretty obvious short squeezes. Our current rally is building from a test of a low, not the low itself and has been much more steady. The volume was better today than during yesterday's tank, and we're being led by the financials... even during yesterday's selloff, the financials were relatively strong.
If this market is truly going to rebound, the financials have to be front and center in its strength. I also like that we closed just above the resistance level of the last two days.
So I see a lot of positives, and again, I could easily see us running to the 50dma in the industrials soon. After that, I get neutral again, and would hope for a long boring consolidation there heading into the holidays, so that we could have a nice springboard for a January rip. That's the best case scenario for the bulls, IMO.
Anyway, it was a fairly solid day for the RO. Trader D made some solid decisions today, getting long the insurance sector and holding on for the ride. It's great to see, because as you'll recall, December hasn't been very merry for him. But there was a nice spread of success today, which is always great to see.
Out of 24 traders today, 20 were gross positive, or 83%. 13 traders finished up over $1,000 while only 3 lost over $1,000. Good numbers there. I was #8 of 24, in good shape.
Oh, sign up to "follow" my blog. You see that new little sidebar thing I have? Do it now.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader D, $82,702 on 612k shares traded.
2. Trader B, $44,187 on 352k shares traded.
3. Trader C, $25,725 on 502k shares traded.
4. Trader N, $21,886 on 153k shares traded.
5. Trader Z, $8,222 on 411k shares traded.
"Chambermaid" - Trader A, -$58,856 on 736k shares traded.
2. Trader P, -$1,990 on 422k shares traded.
3. Trader 7, -$1,076 on 6,000 shares traded.
4. Trader K, -$827 on 16,800 shares traded.
5. Trader 3, $57 on 9,800 shares traded.
Here it is, your daily "heatmap." Compare with the intraday map I published earlier... nice reversal.
A Depressing Market
I'm not exactly thrilled by the tone of the market today. Below is a 30-min graph of the Dow. It basically shows that we broke the uptrend I was hoping would stick.
The intraday heatmap shows that financials are relatively strong... that's the glimmer of hope if you're bullish.
Everyone Is Unemployed
The good news is that you can always be a proprietary trader...
Here are the grim details of today's job report.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
The RO Report, "Bears Are Lame" Edition
Here's the deal... ahead of a jobs report that is widely expected to be a complete disaster, all they could manage was a 200 point drop on the Dow? I'm not impressed. A month ago, they could have taken this market down at least 600 points. I guess I'm just really tired of being bearish.
I'm not saying it's easy being bullish here, because it's not, but I like the way 84 support held on the SPY. If we rally tomorrow on a weak report, bears will have some thinking to do over the weekend... especially if we could close above 8650.
Anyway, it was an interesting day in the RO. Trader N continues to show major progress as he seems to be developing into a bit of a monster trader. This is wonderful for the office dynamic. The best type of office doesn't just have one or two good traders, but a whole bunch with different styles. This way, when one guy is slumping, you still have a strong leader. Kudos to Trader N for his spray.
Out of 22 traders today, 10 finished gross positive, or 46%. 6 traders made over $1,000 gross, and 7 traders lost over $1,000 gross. A very mixed performance. Volume was pretty lackluster today and we seem to be waiting for that report tomorrow. I was #7 of 22. Happy to be green since I was bullish all day...
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader N, $33,838 on 111k shares traded.
2. Trader J, $11,411 on 116k shares traded.
3. Trader V, $3,550 on 93,200 shares traded.
4. Trader L, $3,269 on 53,000 shares traded.
5. Trader Z, $2,035 on 271k shares traded.
"Chambermaid" - Trader A, -$18,930 on 200k shares traded.
2. Trader P, -$12,238 on 261k shares traded.
3. Trader C, -$6,164 on 303k shares traded.
4. Trader H*, -$3,273 on 4,500 shares traded.
5. Trader D, -$2,974 on 467k shares traded.
Here it is, your daily "heatmap."
Facialmorph Slideshow Of The 44 Presidents
Slow morning. I'm thinking we have a consolidation day. I'm not going to trade much until the afternoon.
Cool video. (h/t CrooksandLiars)
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
The RO Report, "Epic Battle" Edition
There are some key levels right now that the bulls are defending and I have to say, after months of washouts, it's inspiring to watch.
The fact that we've had strong rallies two days in a row after the bears tried to kill strong morning moves to the upside is very good for the bulls. If I may be so bold, I'd say we have a shot at visiting the Dow 50dma sometime in the near future. Currently, that number is 9082... I'd expect heavy resistance between 8900 and 9000 though. After that, I'd be neutral until we could break higher on volume.
Anyway, enough about what I think. Opinions are fairly worthless in this market and I haven't forgotten Monday's disaster. I just like what I'm seeing and wanted to let you know, mostly because I was so bearish for so long. It's just rare for me to be positive about anything.
By nature, I'm a bit of a hater.
The RO had a solid day. It wasn't an easy day, however. It felt choppy out there and there wasn't a lot of strong conviction about what the market was going to do. I mean, I had strong conviction but my execution has been awful, so I don't count.
Out of 16 traders* today, 11 finished gross positive, or 69%. 7 traders finished up over $1,000 gross and only 2 lost more than $1,000 gross. I was #7 of 16.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader A, $18,583 on 395k shares traded.
2. Trader Z, $15,763 on 214k shares traded.
3. Trader N, $4,243 on 62,400 shares traded.
4. Trader 7, $1,596 on 14,000 shares traded.
5. Trader C, $1,441 on 120k shares traded.
"Chambermaid" - Trader R, -$2,092 on 72,600 shares traded.
2. Trader V, -$1,021 on 71,200 shares traded.
3. Trader B, -$311 on 526k shares traded.
4. Trader D, -$173 on 395k shares traded.
5. Trader 11, -$163 on 5,800 shares traded.
*Due to a technical glitch, I don't have stats for some of the traders today.
The "D-Word"
Chrysler guy gets a fail for even mentioning this...
A top Chrysler executive warned Wednesday that a carmaker collapse could send the economy spiraling into a depression, while the United Auto Workers agreed to new concessions for their companies. Jim Press, Chrysler's vice chairman, said the U.S. automakers were "down to months left," as industry officials ratcheted up a fierce lobbying push to persuade Congress to approve as much as $34 billion in emergency aid. "We're on the brink with the U.S. auto manufacturing industry," Press told The Associated Press in an interview. "If we have a catastrophic failure of one of these car companies, in this tender environment for the economy, it's a huge blow. It could trigger a depression.Meanwhile, Ken Lewis of BAC said he sees a "ray of sunshine" shining on the economy 6 months out.
I ask you this... is it obvious who already drank from the bailout bucket and who hasn't?
The Great Depression Visits DT's House
Two years ago had I walked into the middle of my town with a bloodied Pomeranian and thrown it, I probably would have ruined a real estate broker's shirt. People who I drank with at grungy bars during my "dart phase," who were previously unkempt and dirty, suddenly cleaned themselves up and were handing me business cards and asking for referrals.
They were pretending to be "positive" and healthy. "Fuck them all," I often thought. "Fuck them all..."
Anyway, fast forward to yesterday. I'm still unkempt and dirty and trading from the spare room of my house. And, despite my attempts to follow the thoughtful advice from my therapist to "be aware of my breath," I haven't changed much. I'm staring intently at my screens and cursing myself for purchasing DLR "too early." I'm doubling my position to an uncomfortable 1200 shares when I hear a knock at the front door. No one I know comes to the front door, but we're having a new countertop installed so I figure I should answer it. One last glance at my screen tells me my most recent purchase is already unprofitable. Cursing, I turn away from my desk and walk downstairs to open the door.
I didn't recognize the woman immediately but she looked vaguely familiar. In fact, the first thing I noticed was her very expensive set of glasses (definitely 2 or 3 years old). She stammered, "Hi, DT! I know it's been awhile, but I'm cleaning houses now!" She was straining to sound positive. "I just wanted to give you my card and ask for any referrals if you know anyone in the area" (and here she turned around and looked at the house across the street and spread her arms out) "who needs their house cleaned!"
I felt immediately uncomfortable by the situation, especially once I realized that 3 years ago, this same woman had sold the house across the street for a couple million. She had been known all around my area as "the one" to call if you needed to get your house sold. And here she was trying to make $20 an hour scrubbing my toilet. But I couldn't get all empathetic, and "human" with her, I had 1200 shares of DLR working against me. I told her I'd "keep my ears open" and I closed the door to rush back to my turret.
DLR had dropped further and I sold out for a loss.
Now I had time to think about the woman some more. I wondered how she must have felt walking across my front lawn and getting into her car. I remembered a conversation I had with her a couple of years back. She had adopted a daughter from China and was asking me about saving for college. People sometimes think that because I trade stock everyday that I have some kind of knowledge about how to invest; they're wrong. I told her I hadn't the slightest idea... I just traded. She laughed and said, "Well, as long as the housing market keeps this up, I won't have to worry about it anyway!"
Things can change quickly... I thought about how desperate she must be, to be looking for a job cleaning houses from which she once made huge commissions. Then I thought with some humor about my cleaning lady, an "illegal" from Poland who had a son. I wondered if she ever thought an ex-real estate broker would be her competition.
I thought, and admittedly, this wasn't a nice thought, "Looks like Dominika is due for a pay cut." I smiled.
Suddenly, the drop in DLR made sense to me.
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