Shade Sheist ft. Nate Dogg & Kurupt - Where I Wanna Be!!!

Dedicated to "the Fly," who died earlier today... RIP.



NOTE: "I love scotch. I love scotch. Scotchy! Scotch! Scotch! Here it goes down, down into my belly."

Entries and Exits

There have been so many times when I thought I was "on the verge" of getting my game back, only to get "deballed" shortly after. In the last couple of weeks, I've had that feeling, but then have days like yesterday, that set me back. Then there are days like today, where I manage to make money, but feel "deballed" nonetheless.

It's a tough game we play.

So here are my exits in OXY, my best stock of the day. While I made some money in it, the action highlights how much I can improve. I had 700 shares of this stock at an average price below $80 and made about $425 total, or about 60 cents... it ran over 3 points.



My next trade was in SID, another HCPG watchlist play. Here, I had 1000 shares from around $41.85. Below are my exits.



So I made about 40 cents total, on my shares and left another 60 cents on the table. Very frustrating. Because really, while the stock dipped back down to 20 cents, it was no where near my entry. Maybe I should have sold half there... but I should have held on to some instead of exiting the full position. Indeed, that was a great buy spot...

My third "good entry" of the day came in PCU. I rather hate this stock... he always seems to kick my ass, but today I had the upper hand. I had 300 shares just ahead of $120.



I'm also okay with this trade... as he had a quick and nasty shakeout below $120 just after I sold.

On the downside, I lost $300 today in ICE. This guy is tough. There was no volume today in the stock (until the close), and I should have just let it be. The only positive is that I traded him with small size and didn't make any revenge trades.



So to tie this post up, despite my lackluster performance today, and this month, I'm beginning to have more confidence in my entries. Once I start feeling that every time I buy a stock I'm not going to get screwed, I think I'll be able to work on my exits. And then, I can worry about sizing up again.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $680
Best, OXY, $432
Worst, ICE, -$297

10,200 shares traded.
9 stocks traded, 4 winners, 5 losers.

Virtual Office, -$1613. SPX, +30.10, 1366.00

Me, $680 on 10,200 shares traded.
OBAT, $315 on 7400 shares traded.
Denarii, $88 on 3600 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Sanglucci, -$48 on 3000 shares traded.
Timmay, -$238 on 2800 shares traded.
Ainkurn, -$268 on 300 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$2142 on 4450 shares traded.

Look, I'm just as confused as you are... and if my "proprietary market research" on who you are is correct, that means I'm pretty fucking confused.

In the last year, we've witnessed a few instances of these completely low volume huge rallies... after last February, after last August, and now. It's like, for months at a time the sellers take off to go visit sex clubs in Thailand, or something.

We rip on low volume, and then the sellers come back and we tank on high volume... wash... rinse... repeat.

Could I pin this on the hybrid market somehow? The inverse ETFs? The uptick rule?

All I know, is that the derided "degenerate OTB guys" that "the Fly" bashes on, are eating his cake right now.

Also, and this is unrelated to the market, I did a little experiment today. Over on Timmay's blog, I linked my "The Bookstore Monster" post with the words, "hot, eager, naked college chicks" and got at least 11 hits.

Anyway, I'll have an extensive daily post up later tonight... I have some shit to go over, because I should have made ten grand today.

McCain Wants To Freeze Gasoline Tax

Idiot. Panderer. Hypocrite.

Actually, I finally agreed with Dennis Kneale! You cut the gasoline tax, and gas would be cheaper at the pump, thus creating more demand.

Note to John McCain and the other presidential candidates (they're all regular readers)... We need to use less gasoline, not more.

Gasoline is already cheap in our country, and with 44% all of our income taxes going to fund completely idiotic wars, we need some money to help support our ailing infrastructure. It makes sense to use any federal taxes that are on gasoline to fix bridges, before they fall on people.

We should fucking RAISE the tax on gasoline while at the same time LOWER the income tax... or, at least, reallocate the income tax for better uses.

The Bookstore Monster

Despite our best efforts to not socialize our daughter in an overtly girly way, she's very girly indeed. As such, her favorite book at the tender age of 3 is "Fancy Nancy," which is about a girl who likes to accessorize and use French words. So recently, when we asked her which book she wanted to buy for our friend's 2 year old daughter, her immediate response was, "Fancy Nancy."

We entered the local book shop and walked into the children's section. In the middle of the section is a short table with tiny chairs on which you'll normally find a couple of toddlers paging through books while their parents browse the small store. Today however, the table was occupied by an 11 year old boy and his slightly younger sister. A well dressed, and oiled kind of man was sitting on a leather chair adjacent to the table, complaining loudly to his children.

"Why don't you choose something interesting to read?" he was whining to them.

I didn't recognize the guy, and since our town is small (much smaller in the winter) I knew he was one of the city people who grace us with their presence seasonally. We call them "city-ots" (rhymes with "idiots"). The boy huffed back, "But I only like books about MAAHNSTERS!"

The father's phone started ringing and he gave me a look that said, "Can you believe this shit?" But since I couldn't find one ounce of sympathy for the man, I shot him back a look that said, "The kid is a prick just like you." We walked by him and all his tension, to pick "Fancy Nancy" from the shelf.

As we were paying, the boy walked up to the "kind old lady" behind the counter and asked for a book. I didn't hear the title, but I heard him say, "It was released in Europe months ago, and you should have it." He added, "I'm only 11, but I read at an adult level."

The woman drew a breath, studied the boy for a moment, plunked a few keystrokes and quietly shook her head while staring at the screen. "Sorry, but we don't have anything listed for that author."

The boy walked behind the counter and tried looking under her arm at the screen, to double check her search.

"Excuse me..." the woman said.

Her disapproval didn't throw the boy off. "Try again," he ordered, "but type his first name first."

"Sorry, but the database doesn't work that way. If it didn't come up under his last name, it surely won't come up under his first." She was trying very hard to remain calm. "Listen," she said, "I can suggest something else in the genre. Have you read Anne Rice?"

"Yeah, yeah, I've read all her stuff. But I didn't even like it much."

"Okay... how about Stephen King? Have you tried him? He's written many, many books."

"Read 'em all," he dismissed with a wave of his hand.

The woman was growing flustered. This was the kind of kid who'd strain anyone's patience in a matter of seconds. Clearly, he'd been raised by someone who had been paid to raise him...

She took a peek into the back of the store where the boy's father was talking loudly on his cell phone. Something about her "kind old lady" look quickly changed. She asked the boy, "Oh, what about J.S Bach?" Perhaps you'd like him?"

"Nope read him... wasn't impressed."

The woman flashed a little smile and leaned over the counter. "Look kid," she growled. "Get the fuck away from me before I light you on fire with my laser beam eyes."

The boy stumbled backwards and fumbled his way back to the children's section, where he tried to tell his father what happened. But his father was too engaged in his phone conversation to care.

The old woman turned her attention back to us and purred, "Would you like anything else today?"

We paid and left the store, not entirely looking forward to the summer.

Cocorosie, "Good Friday"

I meant to do a daily post tonight, but a quick walk around the block turned into meeting the new neighbors, which turned into a house tour and drinks... so I won't have the time.  However, meeting new neighbors is always good for me, as it means I'll have plenty to write about in the future. Neighbors cause me all types of trouble typically...

Virtual Office, -$285. SPX, +4.90, 1336.20.

Dehtrader, $403 on 3062 shares traded.
Denarii, $116 on 2600 shares traded.
OBAT, $35 on 9400 shares traded.
Timmay, $0 on 2000 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Ainkurn, -$118 on 300 shares traded.
Me, -$721 on 23,400 shares traded.

Holy fucking shit... I just got so hosed on "imbalances" it's unbelievable.

At 3:40 every day, the NYSE publishes imbalances in stocks, that have built up through the day. Today, for example, huge imbalances were published, to the downside.

WMB came out with a -1,337,800 sell imbalance... TGT had a -2,109,700 sell imbalance, FRE had a -3,484,900 sell imbalance... and there were many more.

Now on a normal day, at 3:50 these numbers get adjusted. Normally, they get taken down a bit. So you would expect WMB to still have a sell imbalance, but maybe for 600,000 shares or so. Today, every imbalance SWITCHED at 3:50. Meaning all those massive sells became BUY imbalances. It feels like fraud, but really, what must have happened is that somebody, between 3:40 and 3:50, decided they wanted to buy today's close in a massive way.

Take from that what you will, but let's just say, today's close was not "normal..." there was some big money there, and it wanted to buy stock in the DOW companies. Could it have been the PPT? WSF? We'll probably never know...

But what it means to a "little guy" like me who was playing the imbalances "like a degenerate OTB guy" is that I got fucked.

Anyway, enough about me for now. Even with the excitement of the close, the volume today was awful again on the NYSE. Now, perhaps more and more volume is moving off the exchange... this is possible since the hybrid is still... well... the hybrid. If that's the case, then short NYX. But for all practical trading purposes, it makes things more difficult, because there's often less follow through.

Something was afoot today in the last half of the trading day. While I got smoked, it gives me hope that trading is about to become more active again... we'll see.

UPDATE: INTC up 10% afterhours... seriously, with that close, you gotta wonder who had that news early. I call bullshit on the stock market. Investigate... impeach, whatever...

The Daily Show Discusses Obama's Elitism

Man... thank goodness for the writers of The Daily Show. If ever sarcasm was necessary to drive home the truth about our media and political situation, it is now.

This is a classic segment.

Retardo Strikes Again

Retardo reaches out and virtually slaps Ugly in the face with a vicious "retard attack."

When will this carnage end? Can Retardo be stopped before the entire stock blogosphere is infected by his misguided anger?

Bottled Water, Or Tap? Tap Please....

Wolf Parade, "Call It A Ritual"

I haven't posted a song here in a while so when I found this new Wolf Parade single I thought it'd be a good way to break the silence.

Deerhunter, "Strange Lights"

Note to "mdawsz:" What's with Get Short being private? Where's that new blog you were promising last week?

Stock Trades In Monsanto

I guess you can never have enough discipline, when trading.

I'm just going to focus on my trades in MON for this post. I made a little money in MON today, it was my best stock, but I also left a lot on the table. Also, I lost money in the stock first, with some not well thought out trades.



So first, the bad trades.

Right off the bat, at 9:34 I bought a couple hundred shares at $122. POT gapped higher, BG was ripping, MOS was running and so I figured MON was bound to run too. Unfortunately, the stock dropped a straight point immediately after my purchase. I sold 100 right away, at $121.85, but held the other 100 shares, because I "knew" the stock was going to trade with the other ferts eventually.

So after the stock dropped the point, it seemed to stabilize, and I added 200 shares down at $121.25, giving me a total of 300 shares. I limited 100 out right away a half point higher. I stopped the other 200 at $121, or the recent low. The stock bounced around for a few minutes (while the other ag plays consolidated their morning spikes) and then dipped below $121, stopping me out of my shares.

Naturally, after that, it had to rip. Man, I was pissed. And of course, I wanted to buy back right away, but I held off, because I was afraid it was just going to chop me again. So I waited for him to trade the morning high and pullback. I picked up 300 at around $122.10.

But, he was chopping around still and I got nervous. I sold 200 right away, at $122.30. Then, of course, the stock ripped. I sold my last 100 shares up at $123.60.

Okay, I made one last trade in the stock. $124, was an important number to watch for on the daily (as per HCPG) and so when the stock ran there, pulled back, and then went through, I bought 200 shares. The stock spiked up pretty hard, and I sold 100 at $124.60. I trailed the other 100 with a stop and was hit at $124.44.

So, what do I take from this? I need to be patient and wait for better chart patterns before I leap into stocks. Not that I was wrong on my first trades... I was ultimately right, and buying the laggard in a strong sector is often a great strategy. But my problem is I don't have the confidence right now to believe enough in my trades to take the pain to see them through. So for now, I need to keep sticking to tight rules.

But I see improvement in my trading, if only because I'm really beginning to notice my mistakes more... I've felt like this for some time though. Hopefully, I can continue to build on my small wins. You know, hit the singles and get my swing back... that whole thing.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $170
Best, MON, $192
Worst, DVN, -$134

6600 shares traded.
6 stocks traded, 4 winners, 2 losers.

Virtual Office, $178. SPX, -5.80, 1329.80.

Ainkurn, $290 on 250 shares traded.
Me, $170 on 6600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $146 on 2750 shares traded.
OBAT, $11 on 8400 shares traded.
Timmay, no trades.
Retardo, no trades.
Sanglucci, -$439 on 10,600 shares traded.

Shhhh! The VO is sleeping...

I can't remember the last time that volume was so low on the exchange. We traded just over 1.1 billion shares on the NYSE. My main office got killed today, I think they all got caught up in PBR somehow but I'm not sure exactly what happened.

I, for one, made some good trades in the morning, but wasn't aggressive enough. The carnage in my main office told me to trade lightly. Then, at 10:30 I went to the beach to surf for 3 hours. So I don't have loads of color... but based on the anemic volume and the numbers coming out of my main office, I don't think it was a happy day for active traders.

Anyway, hopefully we get some action now that earnings season is upon us. However, I feel oddly pessimistic about the whole thing... like it will be worse than ever or something. Clearly, the environment for prop traders has changed radically in just a few weeks and guys who aren't switching their game up are getting punished.

There's lots of opportunity out there though... a huge amount, in fact, in the same sectors that have been moving for weeks, the coals, ag names, oils, and financials.

Pick your spots. Don't overtrade this market.

What Is The VO? And Why?

I literally get thousands, no, tens of thousands of emails a week from people asking me questions about the Virtual Office, or VO. How much money do they need to send me to join? What is it? Is it true they'll get laid more as a member? etc... etc...

So I decided to make this quick post to explain the VO.

First, a little history... way back when, I started this blog due to my frustrations with the NYSE hybrid market.

I hated it.

At the time, I was trading at home, alone, with no contact from any office full of traders or Internet chatrooms. Indeed, this was before I took up surfing again, and sometimes I would go weeks at a time without seeing anyone other than my wife, daughter, and a small group of friends.

I was a mostly a hermit, and as far as work matters went, I was 100% a hermit.

Looking to bitch/learn about the hybrid market, I found Ray's blog, (where I learned that many people hated the hybrid) and from it, NYSE Scalper's blog. I noticed that each day, Scalper would post his P&L. He had an extensive blogroll, and from there, I found a few other traders who posted their daily numbers, most notably, OBAT and Evolution.

So to answer the trivia question, "who were the 4 original members of the VO?" the answer is myself, Scalper, OBAT and Evolution.

So why did I start the VO? To create a community where it would be easy to learn from the gains and losses of other traders. In a real prop office, at the end of the day, you find the guy who made the loot, and you ask him how the fuck he did it. The guy would point at a graph, show you where he bought and sold, etc.

And naturally, as the market giveth, it also taketh away, so you'd find the guy who lost a ton of money (you'd easily find him, because his desk was surrounded by tech guys who were busy installing a new keyboard and mouse while quietly removing the smashed plastic remains of his old ones) and offer him up some hollow platitudes, "You'll get em tomorrow!" etc. The trader would give you a quick sideways glance, canine in nature, and get back to looking at graphs.

You don't want to be the pile-up on the side of the road for too often in a prop office...

The VO was my attempt to regain some feeling of camaraderie about trading (while leading my otherwise hermetic existence), and also, to engender a friendly spirit of competition among the participants. And from a logistical standpoint, I found it somewhat annoying to run to each blog each night to check for stats. Most often, they were in a different spot on each blog, and I thought having them posted at the same time each day (between 4:00 and 4:15 EST) in one central standardized spot for them would be a good thing for the stock blogging community.

And speaking of community, each member of the VO blogs daily about their trading day. So you come to the VO at 4:15, see who made the loot, and then click the link to their blog to "virtually" look over their shoulder to see how they made their money, or alternatively, blew up.

While some may disparage this "focus on the past" it's only by understanding your past trading errors that you'll be able to prevent them in the future... in theory, anyway. Also, it's one thing to write about stocks you think should be bought or sold, but it's another entirely to discuss the actual profits you made from those trades.

So that is the VO or, Virtual Office. It's a place where stock market bloggers post their daily profits or losses and from which you can learn where the money is being made (or lost) in the market each day by full time traders.

Your Banana Killed A Bird

(click below before you begin to read this post... it's the Robin's song)

It's spring and there's nothing better than sitting on my front stoop at sunset and listening with my daughter for Robins to sing.

"There's one!" she'll say as we hear the bird's lilting tune.

But the experience has also become bittersweet.

Because as we listen to them sing, I know that songbird populations are decreasing rapidly, and I wonder if she'll have the same opportunity to enjoy a quiet sunset with her child someday, just listening for a song in the breeze.

Don't ever get so cynical to think you can't make a difference. Every purchase you make can influence events and the decisions you make are the power you wield. Wield it well.

Maybe tomorrow when you have that cup of coffee and banana, this will give you something to think about.

And when you hear the birds singing this spring, take an extra listen.

Nirvana, "In Bloom"

I may have a daily post up later... but in case I don't get to it.

Virtual Office, -$791. SPX, -27.30, 1335.30.

Ainkurn, $330 on 550 shares traded.
Denarii, $126 on 2400 shares traded.
Retardo, $90 on 5 contracts traded.
Timmay, no trades.
OBAT, -$139 on 7400 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$167 on 3200 shares traded.
Me, -$277 on 32,000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$754 on 5874 shares traded.

The big news today is that Retardo finally made a trade. I want to be the first to congratulate him... I know it can be hard to pull the trigger. Equally impressive was the spirited performance by Ainkurn. Give the kid some credit, he's from Mississippi, so you know what kind of gene pool he's dealing with.

I'm sure his brain hurts, thank god it's Friday, huh?

In other VO news, we suck.

Even with the GE news, volume blew. I'm starting to get a bad feeling that even earnings season will be lame... what happened to the volume? the volatility? the fear and greed? These are the things that make trading fun.

Anyway, at least I'm getting my cash from the stimulus package... perhaps I'll throw a poll up so you people can help me decide how to spend my treasure.

The Rise And Fall Of Faux News

Check this Daily Show documentary on Fox News.

Part 1...



Part 2...

My Day Has Been Far Too Exciting...

On a day where I should be taking it easy, I jumped into the market this morning like a drunk guy off a dock.

Perhaps it was because I learned that I had qualified for President Bush's stimulus package and I felt like I had some green to burn.

I tell you... that was some bittersweet news. I almost feel like I should appreciate him for a day or something.... nah, fuck it. Worst president ever.

Anyway, I was down $700 early due to an ill conceived short in MS (before it tanked) and another ill conceived short in ACI.

I made it all back with a sweet MON long.

Let's see how we end.