Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Virtual Office, -$285. SPX, +4.90, 1336.20.

Dehtrader, $403 on 3062 shares traded.
Denarii, $116 on 2600 shares traded.
OBAT, $35 on 9400 shares traded.
Timmay, $0 on 2000 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Ainkurn, -$118 on 300 shares traded.
Me, -$721 on 23,400 shares traded.


Holy fucking shit... I just got so hosed on "imbalances" it's unbelievable.

At 3:40 every day, the NYSE publishes imbalances in stocks, that have built up through the day. Today, for example, huge imbalances were published, to the downside.

WMB came out with a -1,337,800 sell imbalance... TGT had a -2,109,700 sell imbalance, FRE had a -3,484,900 sell imbalance... and there were many more.

Now on a normal day, at 3:50 these numbers get adjusted. Normally, they get taken down a bit. So you would expect WMB to still have a sell imbalance, but maybe for 600,000 shares or so. Today, every imbalance SWITCHED at 3:50. Meaning all those massive sells became BUY imbalances. It feels like fraud, but really, what must have happened is that somebody, between 3:40 and 3:50, decided they wanted to buy today's close in a massive way.

Take from that what you will, but let's just say, today's close was not "normal..." there was some big money there, and it wanted to buy stock in the DOW companies. Could it have been the PPT? WSF? We'll probably never know...

But what it means to a "little guy" like me who was playing the imbalances "like a degenerate OTB guy" is that I got fucked.

Anyway, enough about me for now. Even with the excitement of the close, the volume today was awful again on the NYSE. Now, perhaps more and more volume is moving off the exchange... this is possible since the hybrid is still... well... the hybrid. If that's the case, then short NYX. But for all practical trading purposes, it makes things more difficult, because there's often less follow through.

Something was afoot today in the last half of the trading day. While I got smoked, it gives me hope that trading is about to become more active again... we'll see.

UPDATE: INTC up 10% afterhours... seriously, with that close, you gotta wonder who had that news early. I call bullshit on the stock market. Investigate... impeach, whatever...

19 comments:

kurt said...

i just got out of my short positions because of this post.

Joe said...

Somebody got the INTC numbers early. ITs all rigged!

Dinosaur Trader said...

Jesus...

FWIW, I'm still in my SMN, DUG and LEH short. My only lt long position is HCBK.

I'm a trader and thus, hopelessly myopic. But still, the close was funny. Whether it means anything, we'll see.

-DT

Bluedog said...

DT, it was me who was buying into the close. Sorry about that. ;)

-BD

JakeGint said...

Wamu crapped the bed. Things are still stinky in bank land.

All is well.

newequity said...

You got f#cked like the b#t@h you are.

tapeworm said...

noequity: i see that tony robbins books is paying off...you're still quite the inspiration

DT: nice call!

Rob said...

dt, dont forget its options exp week too.

Jawbreaker said...

FWIW, It just dont seem worth it to risk your days hard work trading on a crapshoot at the end of day. Hope all is well DT.

Ilunga said...

exactly, I am confused with this wired 3:40 or 3:50 thing

seems it happens a lot in financial stocks, like LEH and MER, they would suddenly tank 40cents, more or less, with no signal

TraderCaddy said...

As Yogi Berra says: "it ain't over till it's over." Talk to me about INTC about 2PM tommorrow.

Dinosaur Trader said...

Nice...

@jawbreaker, I agree. A couple of weeks ago the imbalances were "bangin'" to quote an office mate... however, lately they've been awful and definitely not worth the risk. I got sucked in today because they looked so juicy.

@Newequity, you've been missed... not really.

@tapeworm, nice quip about the tony robbins book!

@rob, i had no idea... thanks.

@ilunga, yeah, it's kind of a risky little strategy that sometimes pays off well, but mostly, disappoints.

@TC, right on. I mean, but the people who "knew" probably bailed at 4:10, so they'll be okay.

-DT

Sanglucci said...

DT man I got caught in the same shit I wanna talk to you about all that imbalance shit I made some sick trades with that other day in HI and IFC but today was a DISASTER. But tomorrow in the morning man I'ma hit u up on skype I got some questions about that shit

Jawbreaker said...

Glad your back blogging again DT. Whenever i try to play another game i usually end up regreting it. I just keep on trying to perfect my style of trading and stick to it. take care man.

Rob said...

@rob, i had no idea... thanks.

You must not be good at stocks market. you probably have no idear that John Pierpont Morgan Chase is reporting earnings tomorrow either. Before the opener. FWIWYF

Dinosaur Trader said...

Sanglucci you fucker! Where's your numbers?

-DT

ainkurn said...

What the hell DT? I lost money today on purpose because I felt bad for showing you up the last few days and then you go and pull this imbalance shit. That was your one free pass. Back to making cake!

HPT said...

Dam, New Equity must be out on parole.

The VO needs to get its shit together because this shit is getting pathetic.

tapeworm said...

hpt: u need to reclaim your rightful spot in the VO

LOL! i was wondering what happened to No Equity