Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
HPT Lessons Learned
By now, most have you have seen HPT's dramatic blow up video that I posted here the other day. Unfortunately, youtube removed it because he dropped the f-bomb about 3000 times in 10 minutes. Incidentally, I think it's silly that youtube allows kids to post videos of them beating each other up but will remove a video for using the word "Fuck."
That's seriously stupid.
Anyway, check the video below for what HPT learned from his blowup.
Also, kudos to him for using his now wideranging Internet exposure to tout a few charities. Not like I'll donate or anything... but still, it's nice.
And finally, check Tim Knight's parody video of HPT. FUDGE!
Stock Market Volatility
You all know the story by now... the Dow gapped down 464 points at the open and then rallied madly back for the next hour and a half.
It nearly went positive for chrissakes!
Then it based for the rest of the day and churned unsuspecting traders into a head spinning oblivion. Unfortunately I was one of those traders. I gave back half of my profits from 11 to 4.
I'm still trading small size and still getting used to my system. I've been using more limit orders lately, but this morning I should have used market orders. I missed a lot of good trades because stocks just went straight up that first half hour and my limit orders were never hit.
I've been trading 9 years and I'm still learning... go figure.
Anyway, I'm shot. Immediately after the close we went out with a group of friends who all have 3 year olds... If the market doesn't finish me off, surely the 3 year olds will.
Here's the stats:
P&L, $1707
Best, BBD, $451
Worst, AG, -$208
51,200 shares traded.
32 stocks traded. 19 winners, 13 losers.
Virtual Office, $4176. Dow, -128.11, 11,971.19.
Me, $1707 on 51,200 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $1214 on 4540 shares traded.
Sanglucci, $1010 on 27,800 shares traded.
OBAT, $143 on 3200 shares traded.
Denarii, $102 on 700 shares traded.
Misstrade, no trades.
Wincity, no trades.
Retardo, no trades.
Akalawoo, no trades.
Well it was one for the ages.
I feel like a mook now... a rookie trader in an office full of animals. I was basically low man today (in my real office) while multiple traders made tens of thousands of dollars. 2 traders made over $50,000. Most everyone made the lions share of their money by 10:30.
It's frustrating. However, it also gives me hope that there is going to be lots of money to be made for a long time. The traders are in control of the market.
We traded huge volume on the NYSE today, over 2.5 billion shares. Also, the VIX skyrocketed over 37 today before settling down at around 30.80, still up over 3.5 on the day. Could that have signaled a bottom? Maybe... however, I'd be surprised if we don't test the lows. While it felt like the market rallied today, we still closed down substantially.
It only felt like a rally because we opened down 500 or so...
You can't overstate the importance of the FED meeting on the 30th. Will "Ben the Beard" do it again?
It's at least interesting and fun to be a trader again, that's for sure.
When Will The Rate Cut Come? & Black Monday Revisited
Meanwhile, here are some posts from back in October, back when everyone was celebrating the 20 year anniversary of Black Monday.
WSJ Online Remembers 1987.
Black Monday, Terrible Tuesday, Wussy Wednesday.
Finally, Alphatrends pulled the graphs from the FED cuts after 9/11 to show how they effected the market. When the FED threw the first surprise cut on the market, it didn't help. People still sold. The second cut put in the bottom.
Check it out.
Monday, January 21, 2008
High Short Interest Names
The following stocks have high short percentages. The numbers in parentheses next to the symbol represent the short % of the float. All numbers are from Short Squeeze. I have rounded the numbers up or down accordingly.
The reason I'm posting these is because should we get some type of panic bottom, short covering could be huge. I remember from reading Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator that Livermore looked to cover shorts on huge events or down days.
Also, I just went through the stocks on my screens, not all the stocks on the NYSE. If anyone knows of other good stocks to trade with high short percentages, please share. I didn't include the homebuilders, because I generally stay away from stocks that trade below $15 a share.
Here's some stocks that could see substantial short covering during a market bottom.
VMC (11) RWT (33)
TNH (11) JLL (11)
TRA (18) MBI (37)
PMI (19) PCR (16)
MTG (25) AMG (21)
ABK (35) LAZ (14)
FMD (30) GHL (39)
FED (69) CNS (27)
DSL (59) BSC (16)
UA (32) LNN (16)
AGO (13) ARE (12)
AIT (11) AXE (10)
AZZ (9) ANR (11)
Inflation
Since a lot of people seem to be expecting a surprise rate cut now, let's talk about a potentially larger problem than a stock market meltdown.
FUN!
Stock Market Crash of 2008?
Just something interesting to think about. Last week, the S&P 500 lost 5.4%. That was the worst weekly drop in over 5 years.
Guess what? Right now the futures are down 60 points. That's almost another 5% overnight and a 10% decline in the last 5 trading days.
Meanwhile, the IBD is busy speaking truth to power. Read below.
Individual stocks continue to tumble. Stocks that led the market's most recent rally have fallen especially hard. It's odd, then, to see analysts upgrade leaders that have started breaking down.
Research In Motion, (RIMM) Potash (POT) and Fluor (FLR) each garnered upgrades Friday. All three stocks fit the profile of the leader that has started to crack in heavy volume.
Analyzing the market's past winners shows how and when leading stocks top and start to roll over. These diving leaders are exactly the sorts of stocks you should be selling to protect your capital. Yet Wall Street continues to tout these names.
No one can know with absolute certainty which way the market will turn from day to day. But it's worth remembering the lessons of the past.
When Cisco Systems, (CSCO) Microsoft (MSFT) and others started selling off in 2000, many analysts urged investors to grab them each time they fell to new bargain prices. Those that heeded that advice learned a painful lesson: When the market goes into a downtrend, the only absolutely safe place to be is in cash.
Trying to outsmart the market has proven fruitless lately. Even defensive stocks like utility, food and beverage firms have gotten slammed. As it stands, this market has few, if any, safe havens.
HPT Caught In This Mess
This is hard to watch. If you've traded, you've probably had a moment like this somewhere in your past. (h/t mdawsz)
Warning: harsh language.... NSFW.
Stock Futures Trader Having Rough Day - Watch more free videos
HPT, keep your chin up and read your blog from back in August, the last time this happened. You'll come back. You will.
More on the huge global market decline here.
UPDATE: It's a shame, but HPT's video was removed from Youtube. I'm guessing because of the harsh language. Funny... you can post a video of 14 year olds beating the shit out of each other, but you can't say the word "Fuck!" How idiotic.
Futures -43.00
I hate to disrupt the holiday with some bad news, but look out below!
The Dow futures are down 300. That would mean an open at around 11,800 tomorrow.
Here's what Bloomberg has to say about the "rout."
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Dr. Brady Barr Is Still An Idiot
I've said it once, and now I have to say it again.
National Geographic should take this guy off the air before he does anything further to damage their reputation.
Now he dresses like a hippo. I wish the snake had finished him off last time...
Inner Tube Prank
Ever feel helpless drifting downstream in an inner tube?
Inner Tube Pissing Prank - Watch more free videos
Friday, January 18, 2008
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