I Hope This Rally Sticks

I'm all for volatility, believe me, but I've never wanted a rally to stick like I want this rally to stick.

Look, we need some good news to talk about over Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving isn't supposed to be depressing... that's what Christmas is for.

I like today's trade so far. The rally is being led by the banks and brokers, which is exactly what we need. If these stocks can hold on for the rest of the day, I'm looking forward to a strong close... potentially, very strong.

Unfortunately, I'm not making much money so far today... the RO is doing well without me. Sometimes that happens.

Let's see if I can catch up though later in the day. I'm feeling optimistic about the market for the first time in, I dunno... a year?

So if the market does rally into the close, this trader is going to be very long.

Another Good Google Search...

Your Obligatory Sunday Evening Citigroup Rescue Headline

We're saved!  Maybe...

Apple iTunes Store Goes Down, People Riot.

I haven't been able to buy a song on iTunes since Friday.  Looks like I'm not the only one...

This is a pretty funny thread.

Here too...

As you can see from some of the comments, habits learned from toddlerhood don't necessarily disappear after adulthood.

Obama Reveals Parts Of Economic Plan

Fuck yeah.  Read the article here.  Excepted below.

“We’ll be working out the details in the weeks ahead, but it will be a two-year, nationwide effort to jumpstart job creation in America and lay the foundation for a strong and growing economy,” Mr. Obama said. “We’ll put people back to work rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges, modernizing schools that are failing our children, and building wind farms and solar panels, fuel-efficient cars and the alternative energy technologies that can free us from our dependence on foreign oil and keep our economy competitive in the years ahead.”

The Congos, "Fisherman"

The RO Report, "That's Not The Bottom" Edition

Call it the "Obama rally," or, more specifically, the "Geithner rally" since it began when word was leaked that Obama had chosen him as Treasury Secretary. 500 Dow points when you're in the mid 7000s is nothing to ignore... that's a substantial rally.

Depending on what happens with Citigroup over the weekend this rally could have turkey legs.

It would be nice, but I'd be seriously surprised.

I just wanted to relay the topic of a conversation I was having with "Trader P" last night... how hard it is to be satisfied with your job performance as a trader. If you do well, someone has done better, or you let a good trade go too soon. If you do poorly, you just feel like shit no matter what. Really, the only way to feel good, is to be the "Lucky Pierre" day in and day out. Easier said than done.

Anyway, after my 4am drive home from the city last night, I'm shot. The RO did well that last hour and the Bosses finished out the week on top. I'm just getting straight to the numbers.

Out of 24 traders today, 20 were gross positive, or 83%, a nice number. Better yet, 16 traders finished over $1,000 gross, while only 2 traders lost over $1,000 gross. I was #7 of 24, good for no sleep, but man did I mook out of that last move...

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader B, $53,371 on 770k shares traded.

2. Trader A, $41,601 on 908k shares traded.
3. Trader Z, $21,078 on 391k shares traded.
4. Trader F, $12,822 on 192k shares traded.
5. Trader J, $12,746 on 156k shares traded.

And the Manservants...

"Chambermaid" - Trader C, -$6,425 on 222k shares traded.

2. Trader E, -$3,659 on 266k shares traded.
3. Trader 8, -$626 on 8,600 shares traded.
4. Trader 9*, -$231 on 4,400 shares traded.
5. Trader K, $45 on 1,000 shares traded.

Where's The Bottom?

Simple enough. Let's see what you people think.

1. 7500
2. 7250
3. 7000
4. 6750
5. 6500
6. 6250
7. sub 6000

Do The Regionals Benefit?

With the largest US Bank looking very much like it's going under, I was wondering where all those deposits will go. As an investor in HCBK, I'm hoping there. But do you think that other smaller banks will benefit?

It's going to be a scary weekend if C goes under. Look for a press release to be put out before Asian markets open Sunday night. I wanted to take off next week, but just can't with the markets at their lows. Like I said a couple of days ago, we're gonna get one of those monster short-squeezes soon and I want to be massively long for it when it comes.

Also, this weekend I'll work on a post to describe my evening last night. I dined with Traders B, D, E, K, N, P, and Z. I'm hoping to begin a series of interviews with each trader in the office. Developing...

Clusterfuck To The Poor House - The Auto Industry

On point as always, The Daily Show has their way with the auto mess...



Also, speaking of being poor, "the Fly" has a wistful post on bok choy.

Outkast, "Spottieottiedopaliscious"

The RO Report, "Dinner With The Gods" Edition

I'm driving into the big city tonight so that the RO can take me out to dinner and buy me drinks and women.

Needless to say, the RO report will be egregiously late.

Also, the RO kicked ass...

UPDATE: Okay, here we go. I'm tired and drunk, so no analysis. I'm in Trader P's empty apartment, another victim of the "housing crisis."

Out of 27 traders today, 18 were gross positive, or 67%. 14 traders made over $1,000 gross and 6 lost over $1,000 gross. I was #12 of 27, simply okay.

The Bosses came back in a big way today, really taking it to the Manservants in an uncomfortable, "non-lubricated" sort of way.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader D, $54,547 on 813k shares traded.

2. Trader B, $45,347 on 995k shares traded.
3. Trader E, $22,261 on 191k shares traded.
4. Trader C, $21,475 on 272k shares traded.
5. Trader P, $13,965 on 259k shares traded.

And the Manservants...

"Chambermaid" - Trader H*, -$14,747 on 8,400 shares traded.

2. Trader 10*, -$2,358 on 8,400 shares traded.
3. Trader J, -$2,219 on 183k shares traded.
4. Trader 6*, -$1,555 on 0 shares traded.
5. Trader 3, -$1,176 on 14,400 shares traded.

I'll be trading from the physical RO tomorrow. I haven't traded in the big city for years. I haven't traded next to real people for years. I'm almost sure that means I'll get really smoked. Still, I'm looking forward to it.

As I puzzled over the cost of the dinner tonight, "Trader B" told me I need to stop thinking about money. Make a lot, spend a lot, lose a lot. If you're going to be a good trader, there's something to that...

Re-Instate Short Selling Ban?

Just heard that come over the box...

Like that worked the first time...

Fucking idiots run this country.

The Neti-Pot

The market can make you feel dirty. It's fucking awful out there today. Guys have had massive swings and if you haven't covered at perfect times, you're getting stomped.

When the market makes me feel bad, I now turn to the Neti-Pot. See below.



Sure it looks funny, but it'll clear your head out like nothing else. And sometimes, that's what you need to trade right.

UPDATE: Here's more info.

"The Bottom" Coming Soon To A Market Near You

One of the signs of a bottom according to the IBD is when you start seeing bears on the covers of major news magazines. When the national media (not just CNBC and other 24-hour "news" outlets) become obsessed with the bear and the bottom, the fog will soon clear. So it actually made me feel pretty good this morning to read this article in The Times, that seemed to suggest we were screwed beyond repair.

Below is an excerpt.

But it was financial stocks that bore the brunt of the selling, and, for many analysts, seem the most worrisome. Financial shares are plunging far below the levels plumbed in October, when panic gripped the markets. On Wednesday, Citigroup, the hobbled financial giant, plunged 23.4 percent to a mere $6.40 in an avalanche of sell orders. Once the most valuable financial company in America, Citigroup is now worth less than U.S. Bancorp.

Big banks like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo & — all of which, like Citigroup, have received billions of dollars from the government — fell more than 10 percent.

Goldman Sachs, the former employer of Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary, sank to its lowest level since it went public in 1999. Analysts predicted that Goldman, the most profitable bank in Wall Street history, would suffer its first loss as a public company.

Even Warren E. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, which owns the Geico Corporation and recently invested in Goldman Sachs, fell 12 percent, its steepest decline in more than two decades. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 427.47 points or 5.07 percent, at 7,997.28. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index closed down 6.12 percent or 52.54 points at 806.58 while the technology-heavy Nasdaq ended down 6.53 percent at 1,386.42.

But even as markets tumbled, analysts saw few signs of capitulation, that final burst of panicked selling that typically marks a market bottom. If anything, Wednesday’s new lows are a sign that Wall Street has farther to fall.

Another newer sign that Mr. O'Neill and his group might be interested in, is the bearish commentary left on blogs. If you read "the Fly's" blog, you might have noticed that the "head bear" in the comment section, "DevilDog," has been particularly triumphant lately, explaining that he has the perspective of real pain, and therefore knows that we're screwed beyond belief and that this time it's different and that we're never going to bounce and that America is dead forever.

I agree, in many ways we are "fuckified," but these bears assume fear is stronger than greed. It's not. The two are equal and they're what make the market work.

Remember the idiots in 2000 who were saying silly things like "Dow 30,000!" in just a few years? Well, they're cut from the same cloth as the idiots who are now saying Dow 4000 until 2040.

Greed just won't let that happen. This is short-term myopia. The market has been around for hundreds of years and human psychology hasn't changed much since then... why should it now?

And of course, the fact that once again I considered buying a gun and storing grains and water in my basement mean sometime in the next couple of days there's gonna be a massive spike. Hopefully, this time it will hold.

Anyway, the scariest outcome from a trading and investing perspective is what reader "Jawbone" mentioned last night in my comment section. That we could have an "L-shaped" bottom, whereas we decline and just stay there for an extended period of time. That truly scares me, because it would make trading nearly impossible on a short-term basis.

Anyway, for now, I'll take a bet that this time is bad, but no different from past panics we've had, because greed will soon rear its beautiful head again.

NOTE: However, shit like this gives me pause...

Minutemen, "History Lesson Part 2"

The RO Report, "Death To The Market!" Edition

That's a 20-year graph of the Dow. Make sure to take note of the little blip back there in 1987, just to put things into perspective.

I'm not a mathematician, but I think back in 1987, we had a 38% move from the top to the bottom. Now, purely for fun, and acknowledging that we've already moved a huge amount from the top of the market, a 38% move from the start of this month would put us at around 5985 on the Dow... I think. Again, math isn't my thing.

But anyway, my point is that 7000 is no longer scary. This sell-off is way too controlled. We're heading into the 6000s. However, I'm not even sure how we'll get there. I mean, I guess C can go to $1, BAC could go to $5, and JPM could go to $12... I just hope they don't stay down there too long.

In short, everything is a big mess. It's hard to imagine how much lower stuff is going to go when everything already looks completely oversold (if we were in normal times). And again, when I start to feel like the end of the world is coming, it normally means we're due for a bounce soon.

My best case scenario for a meaningful, long term, bottom is a complete washout through 7000. I mean, blast it like it doesn't even matter, touch down at 6482 (I just like that number) and then shoot back above 7000, all in the same day. Then, hopefully, never look back, just like how in 1987 they never saw 1616 again.

At this point, if you're hoping something worse happens, you're really fucked up.

Speaking of fucked up, the RO saw more blood today. But again, our results are mixed. So the volatility is there, the opportunity is there, but it's not easy. The risk/reward ratios are not as favorable as they were even a month ago. "Trader A" (yes, he's still alive) explained to me that the Average True Range of the indices (based on a 5 period) is about half what it was a month ago. Additionally, volume is down.

Those two things together may go a long way towards explaining why short-term aggressive trading has been more difficult.

Anyway, out of 24 traders today, 15 were gross positive, or 63%. 8 traders lost more than $1,000 gross, and 12 traders made over $1,000 gross. Not bad on the face of it, but Traders B and D held hands and skipped together towards death, destructing the office.

Indeed, they took the term "Manservant" to a new level today.

I was #8 of 24. Happy enough, but I could have easily been in the top 5 had I a pair of balls.

Here are the Manservants:

"Chambermaid" - Trader B, -$52,792 on 614k shares traded.

2. Trader D, -$38,873 on 412k shares traded.
3. Trader H*, -$8,320 on 3,300 shares traded.
4. Trader C, -$2,493 on 64,600 shares traded.
5. Trader 10*, -$1,948 on 2,600 shares traded.

And the Bosses (congrats to A, N and Z for strong bouncebacks from yesterday):

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader A, $15,501 on 109k shares traded.

2. Trader N, $12,325 on 68,600 shares traded.
3. Trader Z, $11,062 on 147k shares traded.
4. Trader J, $5,472 on 86,400 shares traded.
5. Trader V, $5,008 on 72,400 shares traded.

Dylan Ratigan Questions Paulson's Integrity To Handle Bailout(s)

This is old, but on point, especially since we're considering more bailouts. Meanwhile, the anchorwoman pretty much is clueless. (h/t "Trader Z")

The White Stripes, "The Big Three Killed My Baby"

Let them fail.

Fuck Trading, I'm Becoming A Pirate!

I mean, check out this interview with a real life pirate... sounds like a nice guy. Just wants a little money.

They even eat with their hostages!

Q. [There are 20 crew members, most of them Ukrainian, being held hostage.] How are you interacting with the hostages? Eating with them? Playing cards?

A. We interact with each other in an honorable manner. We are all human beings. We talk to one another, and because we are in the same place, we eat together.