Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Freaky Hybrid Trade Of The Day! FLR!

Yesterday in my daily post, I highlighted how the Hybrid Market has ruined trading in illiquid names like BAP. However, lest you think that the Hybrid Market only wrecks havoc in low volume names, take a gander at this 1 minute chart for FLR today.



Really, is going from $144.50 to $151.50 in 3 minutes an orderly market in a stock that trades millions of shares a day?

Short answer is "no." They Hybrid Market is an abomination on many levels. We're almost at the year anniversary and I can already hear the NYSE getting ready to tout it's success with a big PR bash. However, I still can't find any traders defending this joke of a market. Where's the much promised "price improvement and matching?"

Meanwhile, I made money shorting FLR this morning... so don't go thinking I'm just bitter or something. I just can't stand what has become of the NYSE.

Strong Oil, Weak Dollar. Time To Horde Food

Nuts, dried beans...



Meanwhile, I'm not even going to turn on CNBC. I can't imagine they're saying anything useful.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

"The Fly" Shutting Blog, NYSE Vows To Remain Open

"The Fly" has announced that his blog will be shutting down "live" on Monday November 12th, at 10:00am.

While it's somewhat awkward for such an event to take place smack dab in the middle of the trading day, John Thain, CEO of the NYSE, was quoted as saying, "While we expect a significant drop in trading activity on Monday, we'll remain open for trade."

He went on to say that the exchange would acknowledge the "passing" of "the Fly" with a moment of silence.

Ron Paul Sets One-Day GOP Fundraising Record

Not bad for a guy who has "no shot."

Who knows?

The Cure, "Fascination Street"

A Profitable Slumber

We had a late night. Saw Darjeeling Limited, really liked it and then had drinks with friends afterwards. Last time I had seen 11:30 on a worknight was in 1997, so I was hurting this morning when I woke up.

I planned on taking it easy today anyway, since I got so smoked yesterday. All day long I was trading with small positions, maxing out at 400 shares. I basically scalped all day... I hate trading like that, but I wanted to focus on taking profits and cutting losses quickly.

My best stock of the day was ABK.



They had a conference call at 10:00. It was pretty clear that they were going to come out and bash on the analysts who have recently been bashing on them... it was stupid of me to not load up more since I had good conviction on this play and it worked out.

Another good play I had today was DSX. This was a "darkside" trade... or short.



I noticed the relative weakness in this stock as compared to the other shippers at around 10:30 or so. The stock had a large bid (a rarity in the hybrid world) at $38.72 and I figured if he smacked it out that he would plunge a bit if the other shippers started to weaken. That exact scenario played out and the stock dropped nearly 2 straight points in short order.

Yesterday really messed with my head. I was so consistently off with my timing in the morning that it's hard to believe. Also, I lost about $800 in BAP in the first 15 minutes of trade. I'm posting a 1-minute graph here so you can easily understand the absurdity that occurs when you mix the hybrid market with thinly-traded stocks.



So, I got short right away, at around $72.85. I hated the trade and went to cover at what I thought would be a small loss. Instead, when I went to cover, the "ask" jumped above the $73 and I lost a quick $200. Worse yet, I screwed up and forgot to cancel my buy-stop order. So, instead of just covering my short, I also got long, up near $73.50. It was basically like I was trading with myself. There was absolutely no liquidity and the quotes were all 1x1 and spread wide. The stock quickly dropped over a point so I lost money on my short and then on my "accidental" long.

This trade made me so angry, so quickly, that really, I should have at least walked away from the computer for a few minutes. But I thought yesterday was going to provide good opportunity, so I kept plugging. Clearly, a mistake. Yesterday did provide great opportunity, but it was later in the day.

The point is, I'm happy I bounced back today but I traded really nervously. So, even though I "won" I feel like I "lost" a bit.

Hopefully, by the end of the week I'll be back on track.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $1074
Best, ABK, $556
Worst, CNS, -$155

25,000 shares traded.
15 stocks traded, 11 winners, 4 losers.
147 trades.

Virtual Office, $7568. Dow, +117.54, 13660.94.

Me, $1074 on 25,000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $1027 on 3260 shares traded.
Denarii, $336 on 3800 shares traded.
Akalawoo, $48 on 1 contract traded.

Wincity, $34 on 200 shares traded.
OBAT, -$520 on 18,200 shares traded.

Evolution, -$2486 on 167,000 shares traded.

Okay, so I made it past 11am today. Unfortunately, it was the kind of day that puts a trader to sleep... choppy melt-up. So I didn't pay too much attention. I did chores, etc.

Unfortunately though, I passed my "blow-up cold" to OBAT and Evolution. Oh, and the supercomputer known as Misstrade made gobs of money again... but does anyone even notice anymore?

Meanwhile, is Guy Adami always stoned or does he just not give a fuck? And Maria with that 4:00 "Do you know where your money is?" thing... that's just annoying. "Yes, Maria, I know where my money is. Will you please shut up?"

Anyway, volume was decent today on the NYSE, we traded close to 1.5 billion shares. Better than the totals of a few weeks ago but hardly exciting.

I've been blogging lightly, I know. I'm having some computer issues. I think the guys from MtM threw a hex on my computer or something... My internet is "broken."

I think it's time for a new one... I priced out a Dell today with huge memory and dual-core processing. Perhaps that will help. $1049. Basically, today's profits for a new comp... we'll see.

Anyway, I have a highly researched post about "pizza inflation" going up tomorrow. Be sure to check it out.

Finally, GO ISLES!

Cell Phone Idiots, Beware!

Sure, these things are illegal in the US, but so is marijuana... and who hasn't tried that?

I wish I had one of these babies back when I was taking the train to the city everyday. Before cell phones, I was able to read a couple of books a week and actually enjoy the ride.

After cell phones, I stopped commuting.

Worst Person In The World

Roger Ailes wins due to his editing of criticism for his new, floundering, FBN.

Pretty damn funny!

America's Wealth Spectrum

Here it is.



That there is a graphical representation of said "spectrum."

What I want to know is how am I up near the top and still struggling?

I blame the hybrid market, and SWC.

Monday, November 5, 2007

Brief Foray Into Negativity

While I don't normally revel in the pain of other's trading losses, the blow to my awful day has been cushioned by seeing SWC down 15% or so. Sorry, JJ. Not really.



I guess it's a buy here?

A Musical Representation Of My Shitstorm

I don't feel like writing. Instead, here is a brief idea of what my day was like, musically.

First off, I was turned away at the gates of prosperity. In kind of a nasty, cold way.



Then, I took a drive. It was odd because I was happy to be heading to the beach for perfect surf with a full day ahead of me, but unhappy because I had to lose gobs of money to be in this situation.



Finally, a cleansing.



Now I'm off to watch the new Wes Anderson movie. Hopefully, that completes my escape from the day.

Back to your regularly scheduled blogging tomorrow. My apologies.

Virtual Office, $5830. Dow, -51.70, 13543.40.

Dehtrader, $686 on 7200 shares traded.
Evolution, $568 on 125,500 shares traded.
Akalawoo, $225 on 10 contracts traded.
OBAT, $140 on 8400 shares traded.
Wincity, no trades.
Stewie, vacation.
Denarii, -$29 on 1800 shares traded.
Me, -$2247 on 52,800 shares traded.


Lots of good numbers in the VO today, nice to see traders taking money from the market.

If you'll notice, I fucking sucked.

Anyway, I was out of the market and trading by 11:00 so I don't have too much color. Let's just say I hate things. I spent the day in the water, trying to get out of my head and into my body.

Perhaps more on that later... until then.

The Hybrid Market Is A Piece Of Shit

More later...

Citigroup Faceplant

Well, I know bloggerdotcom is off somewhere shaking his head at the television with the news that Citigroup is going to write down even more... like $6 to $10 billion more for their exposure to CDOs and subprime debt.



Bob Dylan said "the darkest hour is right before the dawn" but I'm kind of getting the feeling that it's 9pm and we're only on our third drink.

Dawn is still a long way off.

Anyway, the futures are gapping down big which, as far as trading is concerned could potentially suck. I'm hoping for a gap down, a strong bounce and then a new plunge to lows.

That, would be "Wombat" worthy.

NOTE: In other news from Blogistan, "the Fly" may be putting the shutters on his blog, due to increasing competion from a certain Dinosaur.

Friday, November 2, 2007

Weekend Open Thread



Feel free to discuss anything.

Also, I've added a game to the open thread. My friends and I often play this game, Wise and Otherwise, when we take vacations together. It works like this... someone picks a card from a deck and reads one of the sayings off of the card. The other players have to finish the saying. The player who fools the most people into thinking that their saying is correct, wins the most points that round.

Come back Sunday night and vote for the saying that you think is correct.

So, here's the saying you have to complete via the comments section.

There's an old Swedish saying,
One should choose one's bedmate...


Okay, and throughout the weekend I'll update this thread with some interesting links. Also, feel free to add your own via the comments section.

1. HPT has an excellent video of Ron Paul up at his site. A Republican I actually like and would consider voting for.

2. Check out this Indian condom PSA.

3. Sure, Chinese stocks may run into the Olympics, but once people see how freaking polluted the place is, perhaps they'll rethink their investments... don't expect many new world records, that's for sure.

4. Completely awful photography, courtesy of the Wall Street Fighter. While you're there, make sure to search out his post on things that were cool in 1977 but would get your ass kicked in 2007. Hilarious, original stuff.

5. Words of wisdom, from Bubs... or, at least, plagurized by Bubs...

Panda Bear, "Comfy In Nautica"

Some skating footage for Moneyskater, even though he hasn't blogrolled me yet.

Great song... atmospheric. Think Beach Boys meet the year 2007.


The Market Giveth And I Giveth Back

Two days in a row where I was up nicely and managed to give large sums of money back to the market. I've been trading nervously and overtrading with absolutely no patience. If something doesn't work for me right away, I've been getting out of the position... often this means I buy back at higher prices or sell at lower prices.

In short, I'm trading shitty in a market that's great for trading. I feel like I should be losing money... no joke.

The market hasn't been this good to trade since August. Hopefully we can keep this up for a few more weeks. Perhaps that will give me enough time to learn how to trade again.

Anyway, my best trades of the day were shorts in ITU, CNS and TBSI. I also caught smaller moves in AB and RWT.



On the downside, I threw money away trading MTG. This stock frustrated me to no end. Another stock that destroyed me was ANW. I lost over $500 in each trying to short them when all they wanted to do was churn or move higher. These were silly, revenge trades.

Anyway, it was nice to surf midday. Tomorrow the surf here could be huge. I will try to get some video and post it over the weekend. While I was surfing I forgot all about the market... it's really nice to have an activity that takes your head away from the market. Really, I'm being serious here... if you want to be a better trader, get a hobby that you can lose yourself in from time to time... it's healthy.

Again, come say "hi" on the open thread this weekend.

Here's the stats:
P&L,
$2087
Best, ITU,
$953
Worst, MTG, -$507

60,600 shares traded.
29 stocks traded. 14 winners, 15 losers.
200 trades.

Virtual Office, $5150. Dow, +27.23, 13595.10.

Me, $2087 on 60,600 shares traded.
Akalawoo, $1346 on 8 contracts traded.
Dehtrader, $1150 on 1900 shares traded.
Evolution, $363 on 101,400 shares traded.
OBAT, $184 on 16,600 shares traded.
Wincity, $61 on 1200 shares traded.
Stewie, no trades, vacation.
Denarii, -$41 on 1300 shares traded.

Well, they brought the Dow and Nasdaq positive into the close... rah! rah! Dow 50,000! NOT!

Meanwhile, volume was good again as we crested the 1.7 billion level and volatility was good, despite the fact that the VIX closed negative.

I'm neither a bull or a bear, I'm a trader. As a trader I can say this, the market feels very heavy. However, that said, you could easily spot the leadership in the market today as the ferts and techs took off.

Sure, you could say that the selling is confined to one sector. This is largely true... however, it's confined to the most important sector in the whole friggin market. To pretend that the woes of the financial sector won't bleed all over the rest of the market eventually is a bit crazy in my opinion.

But look, I'm usually wrong about broad market moves. So, you can go into the weekend knowing that the Dow probably will get to 50,000 sometime next week.

A good day for the VO as almost everyone finished in the green. Evolution told me he was having a better day and gave a lot back, I had the same situation, even though I poked out midday for some surf. Had I hung around all day, I probably would have given it all back.

I suck like that.

Midday Surf Session

I gave back a grand and hit the waves.

Back for the last hour.

C'mon Wombat... Daddy needs a new toaster-oven.