A Green Grinder

I would have been much better off today had I stopped trading at 10:30.

At that point I probably had a 10-2 win-loss ratio with a couple of decent winners. I was up over $1000. I recognized this and even wrote, here, on this damn blog that I was just going to chill and wait for good setups.

I can tell you this, discipline is a problem for me.

But at least I have identified it as a problem... I only came to understand this very recently.

As the cost of trading goes up and my profits have decreased it only makes sense for me to try and trade more efficiently. This, and cutting massive loss days (which have occurred about once a month recently), is really what I hope to achieve in the near future.

I gave money back in 3 stocks.

The first was CPT. Just a quick chop on 800 shares for a near $200 loss. Happened almost immediately. I took the loss and moved on. I was really pissed too... the good thing is instead of getting all vengeful I just took the stock from my screen and moved on.



The second was in CROX. This was probably my biggest winner early. I got a good short off, covered some at good prices but let the rest come all the way back past my entry. I guess I was hoping for a big break. Actually, that's exactly what I was doing... I need to stop looking for big strikes and take smaller winners here and there. Tighter trailing stops should help this problem.



The third stock I gave money back in was LNN. This was the most disappointing give-back because I broke my 3-trade rule. After making some decent money on the run-up from 34.5 to 35.5 (I actually missed the first half point of the run because it really seemed to come out of nowhere) I probably bought the stock 10 more times hoping for it to get back to the highs. I lost on probably every one of those trades. Again, there's a silver lining... it's that I kept my size extremely small. But it was no less frustrating because I lost so consistently.



My "winner" today was TNH. Funny thing is that I only traded the stock twice today and both times with only 100 shares. I just nearly made 3 points on one trade.



I bought at 100.25 and sold at 103.12. Anyway, he really held up and never came back to catch my buy limits which after that morning run were just under 101. So I missed the run in the afternoon.

Altogether I never complain when I finish green for the day so I won't. However, I need to get back into walking away now and then. Back in the go-go days I had no problem trading the first hour and then taking 3 and 4 hour lunch breaks. I used to walk the labyrinth by Trinity Church, hang out at Bowling Green... in short, I did anything besides sitting and staring at the screens all day.

I think I tend to sit here and get locked in because I am trying to make up for lost time. Since I haven't done well in many months I'm trying to make back all the money I "should have" made. This is clearly a mistake. I am aware of it now. Time to get back to the future.

UPDATE: I just realized I didn't post my stats... my stuff is down for the night so here's what I remember...

P&L $294
Best, TNH
Worst, LNN

shares traded, 24,000?
stocks traded 18? 10 positive, 8 negative?
total trades, 176?

Just guessing, but it's probably fairly close.

Virtual Office, -$3341. Dow, +71.62, 13553.97.

Me, $294 on 24,000 shares traded.
Misstrade, $136 on 1600 shares traded.
Denarii, $47 on 2400 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$639 on 17,500 shares traded.
Evolution, -$3279 on 75,600 shares traded.

Well, it was a bloody one today.

After the first hour of the trading day, things got choppy. Choppy in the same way they were yesterday morning before the afternoon breakout. Just ugly out there.

Anyway, while it's a summer Friday tomorrow there will be some significant numbers released. Perhaps we'll have some good movement. Also, it's an expiration day.

I read a lot of other bloggers who say they avoid trading these expiration days. I find that odd because sometimes expiration days can be volatile. Volatility is a necessary factor for good trading environment in my book.

Let's keep an open mind for tomorrow. You never know!

The Machines Are Taking Over!!!

Great article on algorithmic trading here.

Hat tip to Shortdabull for bringing the article to my attention and to Musings of A Trader for posting it there.

The Go! Team, "Grip Like A Vice"

A little departure, but trust me. This song is damn catchy.

Truce

Late last evening, an emissary from the "Catifada" entered my room and delivered to me a manifesto.

This manifesto listed a number of demands, including "not moving the food bowls", "not moving the litterboxes", and "giving new toys if out of the house for more that 3 days". Besides the last demand I thought these were reasonable requests and I read further... towards the end, amidst lots of incendiary language regarding "the little one who chases and screams", an obvious reference to our daughter, was a compromise.

The "prisoner" would agree to use the litter box if he could be released from the bathroom for the evening. The "prisoner" would use the box before the release occurred.

My wife and I concurred and quickly agreed to this truce.

The truce, while on shaky ground has so far held. No new "roadside bombs" were left in the kitchen today. A new catnip-filled carrot was offered to the "prisoner" as a show of good faith and all seems well. We will see if tensions flare again. If they do, the punishment to the "prisoner" will be swift and strong.

As for trading, I've had some solid trades early today and now I'm taking it easy. I caught a nice early run in TNH, BTU, AGU and a nice short in CROX. And other smaller gains elsewhere. One complaint is that I haven't sized into any of these runs. Still, without any significant losers to note (besides one in CPT, a piece of shit stock that has now been removed from my screens) I feel I am solidly in the green.

I will now be patient and scan for solid setups. It's about closing strong instead of giving it back.

Johnathan Richman & The Modern Lovers, "Roadrunner"

My Day

Fucking Cats

Hello, my name is Dinosaur Trader and I've had bearish thoughts....

(pause)

Whew! Well, I'm glad I got that off my chest. It's important, because the last time I got all bearish, after the friggin blowup in February, it took me months to get over it... truth be told, I may not be over it yet.

Anyway, today is the worst kind of day for me. Friends and family alike will listen to the news, see that the Dow was up 187 points and ask me expectantly, "So, did you do well today?"

NO! I SUCKED! AND FOR THE RECORD, JUST BECAUSE THE MARKET IS UP DOESN'T MEAN EVERY DAMN TRADER IN THE WORLD IS MAKING MONEY!

I have some anger issues today. I'm working on it. Fucking cats. He's down there, locked in the bathroom wailing away and to be honest, I don't give a damn. I can be a stubborn prick. He can stay in there until he learns how to use that goddamn box. If you're confused by this aside, read my post from earlier today. My entire house reeks of cat urine.

Anyway, what went wrong today? I just got chopped. No big disastrous losers, just too many medium sized losers. It feels ironic to say this on a day when the Dow ripped, but I just didn't see many easy opportunities today. Check the VO, I wasn't the only one...

Not sure how to explain it but I think on some level I just couldn't believe the market was ripping so much. So every time I got long, I looked for quick exits and didn't let my winners run. More often though, I was putting my stops too close and getting stopped out. So I suffered the death of many small cuts, not the death of one fatal blow to the skull.

My best trade of the day was a UBB long right after the Beige Book came out. But even in that trade I sold early. Later I bought back and got chopped. Sigh...



My worst trade of the day was in my old friend TNH. After the 11 am run-up, I thought he'd flay the shorts by consolidating and making a new high. Eventually, this is what happened. He just dropped much lower while consolidating than I expected. What was especially frustrating is that I sold 15 cents from the low of the move... I just missed being able to hang in there and avoid a loser. But, as it was, I took the loss.

Later, after 2pm, I would take over a point out of him on the long side. So we're good again. No hate for TNH today. Just a medium loss in him, $368.



Anyway, I know how the VO did but I'd love to hear how others did. Please feel free to share how your day went via the "comment" section. And if you're interested in posting to the VO, shoot me an email.

I'm still confused how I failed to find more winners today...

Here's the stats:

P&L, -$484
Best, UBB, $304
Worst, TNH -$368

shares traded, 49,600
stocks traded, 24, 9 positive, 15 negative (there's the rub)
total trades, 327 (too much churn on a day where I never had traction)

Virtual Office, $1389. Dow, +187.34, 13482.35.

Misstrade, $2365 on 5600 shares traded.
Evolution, $385 on 64,700 shares traded.
Denarii, -$134 on 2000 shares traded.
Me, -$484 on 49,600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$743 on 6000 shares traded.

It was an uninspiring day for the VO.

Yes, yes, Misstrade made good money again but the sun also came up today. I hardly notice anymore.

Outside of that, it wasn't an easy day. The morning was downright choppy and that move at 10:00am seemingly came out of nowhere. Then we were back to chop until the Beige Book was released at 2. That's when the market really ripped.

Anyway, it was an impressive move. When the market moves that much, I discount volume which today, was again on the lighter side, at least on the NYSE where it about equalled the amount traded yesterday.

It's hard to tell what the market is going to do next. Perhaps the answer is right there. The market may not be ripping up thousands of points anytime too soon but after today, it doesn't look like it's about to tank either...

Time will tell.

Choppy Action, Misbehaving Cats

I was very disciplined this morning and didn't get too involved in the chop. However, just when I was going to step away for lunch I made a boneheaded trade and took a hit. I'm waiting the Beige Book data at 2 to make more moves. My win/loss ratio today is disgusting.

Anyway, we went away last weekend. Our friend watched our 3 cats for us. Upon our return, we were greeted with the acrid odor of cat urine in our kitchen. However, the litterboxes are hidden deep in the abyss that is our basement...

We hoped it was just one of our cats signaling its disapproval with us leaving for the weekend. However, the next day there was a fresh pool of urine in the kitchen. A new crisis in the household had begun.

We singled out the guilty party yesterday in mid-squat and locked him in the downstairs bathroom with his litter box. We told him that until he learned how to use the litter box that he wouldn't be allowed to leave the room. A look of fear crept across the face of our daughter, who has been doing well with her potty-training but isn't perfect yet. She was scared, yet equally fascinated. Would we lock her in the bathroom if she had another accident?

All last night, our cat wailed from the bathroom. This morning we woke and the other two cats were sleeping next to the bathroom door in a show of support. Hours later, I walked downstairs and found a new puddle of piss... we are now facing a cat insurgency.

I'm not sure how this will all pan out, but we just spent $50 on different "enzyme" activating cleaners to rid our kitchen of the smell and hopefully prevent another "attack".

We never counted on this cat solidarity movement that has gripped our household since Sunday evening. The vibe here is thick. And with me losing money today, many threats have been made in the direction of the cats. They blink at me slowly seemingly unmoved by my rants.

Meanwhile, my daughter has not had an "accident" since Sunday.

Developing...

Pavement, "Greenlander"

Pavement = High School and College.

Nirvana, "Lithium"

Solid Day

Today felt good. Not one bad loss or stubborn trade. I didn't fight the market. I missed the rally between 1 and 2 because I really don't like to trade those hours, but didn't chase it. Had I chased, I probably would have been buried. Instead, I waited and got short again.

This tape is weak.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of mediocre bounce days here and there. Tomorrow should be a telling day because of all the data to be released. Should be fun.

Anyway, once again, TNH made my day. Here are the trades I made in him.



9:33:50 Buy 100 @ 95.35 (100)
9:34:37 Sell 100 @ 95.60 (flat)
9:40:03 Buy 200 @ 97.54 (200)
9:41:00 Buy 100 @ 97.10 (300)
9:42:52 Buy 100 @ 97.86 (400)
9:44:32 Buy 100 @ 97.33 (500)
9:45:12 Buy 100 @ 97.73 (600)
9:47:40 Sell 200 @ 98.00 (400)
9:49:02 Sell 100 @ 97.65 (300)
9:50:40 Sell 100 @ 97.50 (200)
9:50:53 Sell 200 @ 97.42 (flat)
11:23:12 Buy 100 @ 94.64 (100)
11:26:44 Sell 100 @ 95.64 (flat)
11:35:27 Buy 100 @ 94.86 (100)
11:47:22 Sell 100 @ 96.08 (flat)
11:55:51 Buy 100 @ 95.89 (100)
12:13:35 Sell 100 @ 95.83 (flat)
14:52:20 Short 100 @ 94.42 (-100)
15:00:42 Short 100 @ 94.93 (-200)
15:18:40 Buy 100 @ 92.91 (-100)
15:27:33 Buy 100 @ 92.25 (flat)

It was somewhat frustrating because I had a hard time building my normal position in him today. But again, I showed restraint by just taking what I could get where I wanted it instead of chasing the stock all over.

Anyway, besides my win in TNH I had solid gains in ARD and CMI. My only triple-digit loser was in WCG. One trade, one loss. Kept me sane.

In other news, I raised some cash in my swing account (see the stockalicious ticker near the bottom of this page) by selling my laggards WAT and ARWR. It was tempting to want to sell my big winners, MVIS and KOG to lock in the gains, but I thought it was a better idea to sell the stocks that could turn into potential large losers faster. Needless to say, at this point, I'm keeping a close eye on the general market. It could be a good time to start scanning for some shorts.

I'm looking forward to trading tomorrow. I can't remember the last time I was really interested to see how the market would react to economic news, but intrigue is back!

Anyway, here's the stats:

P&L, $1230
Best, TNH, $737
Worst, WCG, -$114

shares traded, 29,200
stocks traded, 21, 11 positive, 10 negative
total trades, 203

Virtual Office, $5106. Dow, -129.95, 13295.01.

Misstrade, $3432 on 5300 shares traded.
Me, $1230 on 29,200 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $386 on 18,200 shares traded.
Denarii, $40 on 2400 shares traded.
Evolution, $18 on 30,200 shares traded.

That's what we like to see, not one red VOer today!

Anyway, as I mentioned in yesterday's post I'd be careful short term in this market. The rally that began in March (after the February "panic") is in danger of being killed here. Distribution days are piling up on all the major indexes. Bounces, such as the one that came on Friday, are coming on light volume while the selloffs are coming on higher volume. Not healthy action if you're a bull.

That said, a minor correction would be welcome... markets don't go up forever. Taking a step back would be good. Back to the VO...

Misstrade continues with his winning ways, while I had a pretty solid day myself. That brings me back into the green for the month. It would be nice to begin to build a nice cushion again so I could feel comfortable taking more risk... especially if we're going to decline a bit here.

Dehtrader had a solid bounce-back day after having a discouraging loss yesterday. Denarii makes in 9 in a row and ET barely eked out gains. But, as I like to say, green is green.

Tomorrow should be an interesting day. Lots of data out including the Beige Book at 2pm.

Do Not Ship Orders Start Tomorrow

This from Hybridtalk...

Good news if you're a little unhappy about paying .025 per share when you get an "improvement" of a penny on your order. No one likes uncontrollable fees.

UPDATE: One problem, it only applies to 28 stocks... and only to limit orders... let's hope they roll it out quickly.

The New Pornographers, "My Rights Versus Yours"

New song, can't stop listening to it. Pop perfection.

Sam Cooke, "A Change Is Gonna Come"

Believe me, I'd love to see us reverse and go positive... but with the bond yields skyrocketing, I don't see it happening... hence, this song.

Attitude Trader

Another site that I regularly monitor is Attitude Trader. Here's a guy that is trying to get back into trading. The best thing is that his focus, front and center, is on keeping his attitude correct and approaching the market from a good place mentally.

He gives himself a +1 for a good attitude day and a -1 for a bad attitude day. I joked with him awhile back that my Attitude Index for the year was a -72 or something.

Even if you don't keep a graph of your mental ups and downs (as he does) it's an important reminder to just check in with your 'tude' and notice how it changes the way you approach the market each day.

Short Da Bull

Hey, just a reminder. Don't forget to check this new website. I think it's a great idea that just needs more users to really get off the ground. It has already provided me with some stories that I wouldn't have found on my own.

If you see a story that you like, just click the "vote" button with the number on it to the left of the story. If you see one you don't like, you click "bury".

That said, don't bury mine, mmmkay?

Check it out!

Panda Bear, "Comfy In Nautica"

From Panda Bear's recent solo effort. Think of what Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys would have sounded like if he did even MORE drugs...