William O'Neil: Market Wizard

Back when I started to trade, I read the IBD religiously. I'd sit there in the JP Morgan building downtown and read it from cover to cover. I even read the articles about commodities and bonds just because I was trying to absorb everything that was new.

William O'Neil started the IBD in 1982 and to understand it and the "CANSLIM" investing method that it promotes is to understand his history. Unfortunately, it's also to understand his politics... which is why I ultimately unsubscribed.

But political opinions aside, O'Neil's story is great and if you haven't already, I would suggest the following book that he published in 1988: How To Make Money In Stocks (4th edition to be published this June). In fact, a good portion of the Market Wizards interview excerpts from that book and actually, I was disappointed that no new ground was turned for me about O'Neil in the Market Wizards interview. But there were a couple of gems.

First of all, O'Neil is a plainspoken, no-frills kind of guy and I've always thought his story is great. He had $5,000 in 1962 and made 3 great back to back trades where he pyramided his profits perfectly and walked away at the end of 1963 with $200,000. With that, he purchased a seat on the exchange and started his own company. What's not to like about that?

He did loads of research which led him to discover and believe in truth-gems such as "it is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower."

This is why he promotes buying breakouts from "sound" bases. He loves charts. Even if a stock meets all of the criteria from the CANSLIM method it needs to be breaking out of a base for O'Neil to purchase it. As he explains,

You don't want to anticipate a breakout from a base because a stock may never break out. You can buy too soon as well as too late. The idea is to buy when there is the least possibility of a loss. If you buy within the base, the stock will frequently fluctuate 10 or 15 percent in normal trading action, and it is very easy to get shaken out of the position. But if I buy at exactly the right time, the stock i susually not going to go down to my maximum 7 percent stop-loss point.

Entry is the most important aspect of O'Neil's method. And if you get in a stock, make a quick 20% and get out, O'Neil says the thing to do is not bitch about the money you left on the table when you see it go even higher.

The secret to winning in the stock market does not include being right all the time. In fact, you should be able to win even if you are right only half the time. The key is to lose the least amount of money possible when you are wrong. I make it a rule never to lose more than a a maximum of 7 percent on any stock I buy. If a stock drops 7 percent below my purchase price, I will automatically sell it at the market--no second guessing, no hesitation.

So then Schwager excerpts the 18 mistakes that investors make from O'Neil's book. I'm not going to reproduce them here, that would be boring. Instead, go buy and read O'Neil's book.

It's a book that every stock trader should definitely own.

BLOG NOTE: Because the O'Neil interview was rather short I decided to publish this today, and tomorrow or Wednesday I'll publish the David Ryan interview.

Sunday Space

"Money doesn't talk, it swears."

-Bob Dylan, "It's Alright Ma, I'm Only Bleeding."

Built To Spill, "Car"

I wanna see movies of my dreams.

The RO Report, "Birthday" Edition

It was a pretty crazy week around here. The SPY had nearly a 10 point range and finished at the high, I went from being down on the year to green, and Jon Stewart taught Jim Cramer that you can be informative and funny at the same time.

You have to either hand it to the bulls or wonder where the fuck the bears went... I'd say that after the bounce on Tuesday that the market has acted pretty perfectly. Still, despite the good action I lowered my exposure in my swing account.

We're still in a bear market.

Anyway, it wasn't a good day for the RO. The market basically churned around. One bright spot was the volume, which came in over 1.5 billion again. So out of 26 traders today, 15 were gross positive or 58%. 5 traders made over $1,000 gross and 6 lost over $1,000 gross. I was #4 of 26. Happy.

Tomorrow is my birthday. How about you show me some love by Digging some of my old articles if you haven't already? One. Two. Three. Thank you very much. Have a great weekend and I'll see you all on Monday.

"Chambermaid" - Trader H*, -$5,469 on 11,000 shares traded.

2. Trader D, -$2,444 on 203k shares traded.
3. Trader Z, -$2,127 on 131k shares traded.
4. Trader A, -$2,054 on 87,000 shares traded.
5. Trader C, -$1,950 on 188k shares traded.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader 10*, $1,451 on 800 shares traded.

2. Trader E, $1,351 on 63,400 shares traded.
3. Trader F, $1,188 on 55,409 shares traded.
4. Trader S, $1,031 on 23,200 shares traded.
5. Trader T, $1,008 on 3,600 shares traded.

Week In Review: Jim Cramer versus Jon Stewart Edition!

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Jim Cramer Interview Outtake Pt. 1

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Jim Cramer Interview Outtake Pt. 2

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

Jim Cramer Interview Outtake Pt. 3

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things w/ Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Jim Cramer

The little blue guy represents you.

High-speed rail finally coming to the US. Of course, California leads the way.

Sure unemployment is soaring but the Treasury Department needs lots of help and fast. Send resumes.

People still like the dollar... Funny. I remember back in the fall, people on "the Fly's" site were saying we'd be on the Amero by now.

The problem, according to this humble blogger, is that poverty is just too much fun!

Wow, Washington makes a promise and then reneges... first time ever!

The Reformed Broker, a man who knows all about anal rape, gives Bernie Madoff some advice about which prison gang to join.

Look, if you ever get pulled over for drinking and driving, don't use the old "It's cool, I'm a country" excuse.

Remember that dude from Overstock.com who was always talking about naked short selling? He seemed way into conspiracies and stuff? Here's what he founded to expose the financial media... Deep Capture. Obviously, he didn't think about the unfortunate double-entendre possibilites of that name.

There is a bottom to the market. You can find it at foreclosure auctions all across the country.

Brian from Alphatrends imagines what a possible bottom might look like... the part that is ensquared (is that a word?) in yellow is fictional, but I like it.

How can you not link a site called Gloomberg News?

Finally! The Condo Fucks have a new album out. It's called Fuckbook. Okay, actually it's one of my favorite bands, Yo La Tengo in disguise. Best fake band name ever?

Arcade Fire, "Rebellion (Lies)"

The RO Report, "Melt Up" Edition

Everyone is suddenly talking about changing the "marked-to-market" accounting standards. This is upsetting because it's really taking away from the whole Jon Stewart/Jim Cramer war.

11pm tonight! Comedy Central! Don't miss it!!!!! But hey, if you do, no big deal. I'll post the interview with my Friday links tomorrow.

Anyway... so what does this potential change mean? Art Cashin used a great analogy this morning on CNBC to help us idiots understand. I'll paraphrase...

He said, imagine if the dude who lives down the block from you has all sorts of financial trouble and is desperate to sell his house. He's a real shithead. The type of dude who doesn't clean up after his dog. Anyway, because he's desperate, he is forced to sell his house/trailer below market value. In short, the dude gets fucked. But you're cool... you pay your mortgage each month and have a 3467 credit score. Say you want to sell your house. Should you be forced to value your house at the same value as the fucked up dude?

Basically, changing the marked-to-market accounting standards means that no, you don't have to value your house the same way the fucked dude had to value his.

Why am I writing about this here when all you people want are the numbers? Because it pertains to the market action today. Who the hell wants to be short the market and specifically financial stocks if they're about the change these standards? Apparently nobody.

Welcome to the great short squeeze of 2009!

The RO had a great day. Out of 31 traders, 27 were gross positive or 87%. 14 traders made over $1,000 gross and only 1 trader lost over $1,000 gross. I was #14 of 31, very happy considering I was down for 95% of the trading day. Trader A continues his hot streak.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader A, $32,949 on 434k shares traded.

2. Trader D, $21,756 on 786k shares traded.
3. Trader Z, $19,738 on 532k shares traded.
4. Trader B, $13,446 on 749k shares traded.
5. Trader C, $9,200 on 588k shares traded.

"Chambermaid" - Trader J, -$1,011 on 116k shares traded.

2. Trader F, -$873 on 149k shares traded.
3. Trader Q, -$272 on 3,200 shares traded.
4. Trader 8, -$122 on 44,200 shares traded.
5. Trader G, $48 on 8,200 shares traded.




Stock Market Trend Analysis 3/12/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Another Person Who Shouldn't Trade

Contrary to popular belief, trading is not gambling.


null - Watch more free videos

Okay, now to address a small blog issue. I have not published a history or an around the house post in a few weeks. I blame daylight savings.

UPDATE: I would like to point you all in the direction of Trader X's blog this morning. A long time reader of his has passed away and they are seeking $5 donations to help pay for his daughter's college education. Think about what you almost considered paying for "the PPT" and go donate.

Wu-Tang Clan, "Protect Ya Neck"

Trader D sprayed today, but he left the chat room without giving me a song. RO members understand that getting on the wrong side of D can be a painful experience... in fact, the last time we had a disagreement about him spraying, he protested and boycotted my blog for a couple of months. So I'm playing this one safe and playing a song from a band I know he likes. Worst case scenario I have screwed up and will have to offer a public apology or something... also, I gave it a pink border.

The RO Report, "Digestion" Edition

There's only one way to view today in the context of the last year: an utter and complete victory for the bulls.

The XLF finished positive, tech was positive, the transports were up and the market finished flat after pulling slightly negative for awhile.

Now what we need is a little follow-through action in the next few days. We filled the gap today that was formed at the end of February. It would be nice to see us close above that level soon to trap some bears. They're not going to get worried just yet though... I realize that.

Anyway, the RO was doing well and then got a little ass-blasted into the close, so we close mixed.

Out of 31 traders today 20 finished gross positive or, 65%. 6 traders made over $1,000 gross and 6 lost over $1,000 gross. I was #12 of 31, or happy to get out of the afternoon alive.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader D, $13,336 on 389k shares traded.

2. Trader A, $5,720 on 236k shares traded.
3. Trader B, $4,848 on 219k shares traded.
4. Trader C, $1,721 on 301k shares traded.
5. Trader 9*, $1,512 on 1,400 shares traded.

"Chambermaid" - Trader P, -$11,487 on 336k shares traded.

2. Trader Z, -$3,148 on 262k shares traded.
3. Trader J, -$2,423 on 107k shares traded.
4. Trader K, -$2,416 on 87,000 shares traded.
5. Trader V, -$2,323 on 104k shares traded.




Stock Market Video Analysis 3/11/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Poll: How Should I Take Revenge On My Neighbor?

The first thing I do each morning is open the window blinds.

Well this morning I opened the blinds to see my neighbor walking his dog on the street in front of my house. The dog sniffed here and there and then ambled over to a wooded area on the side of my lawn and took a dump.

My neighbor stood there a second, looked in both directions and then walked away from the steaming brown pile which was quickly nestling its way further into the earth, my earth, with each drop of rain.

The motherfucker didn't pick it up!

So I ask you all a very important question. What should I do about this?

Please vote in the poll over on the right. It will only be open until Friday at which time I will act.

1. Take the shit and deposit it on his lawn.
2. Take the shit, bag it, and set it on fire on his stoop.
3. Leave a short letter in their mailbox asking them to curb their dog.
4. Put a sign on the lawn saying curb your dog.
5. Do nothing and worry about more important things.
6. Start flirting with his wife

Michael Steinhardt: Market Wizard

Let me start this post with a minor criticism of Mr. Schwager.

He begins this interview by schooling Steinhardt on what he perceives to be the difference between a trader and an investor. I thought this a bit strange and annoying; aren't we reading this book to hear what the traders think about shit? Sometimes I feel Schwager inserts himself into the interview too much, as if he wants to impress upon the reader (or the person he's interviewing) how much he knows.

There was a time when I thought I would get into journalism. I remember reading a book by a reporter (the name escapes me) who said basically, "Look, if you're doing a story about a kid who rides a red tricycle, whatever you do, don't get on the red tricycle yourself and wave to the camera at the end of the report."

Perhaps if the subtitle of this book was "Conversations with Top Traders" and not "Interviews with Top Traders" I wouldn't notice it as much. It's a minor criticism, but it crops up now and again throughout the book and always bugs me. I guess I find the best parts of Market Wizards are when the interviewee is allowed to give nice long responses full of little trading anecdotes and aphorisms.

Anyway, the point is that I didn't get much from the whole first portion of the interview because I was distracted by Schwager, but by the end I came away thinking it was quite good.

Steinhardt is different from the other traders we've read about thus far. Take the following quote from him about risk for example: "My attitude has always been that to make money in the markets, you have to be willing to get in the way of danger." While there have been a few traders who didn't even want to talk about trading disasters and "war stories," Steinhardt seemed to revel in these, which I found refreshing. Why? Because it's just natural to talk about these things...

Overall, I got the feeling that while Steinhardt might be a bit of a dick, (Schwager mentions his firm has high turnover and that he plays bad practical jokes on people) he had a real "feel" for the markets and that most of his trading was intuitive, locked up in his own psychology, and based on his own personal feelings about a situation. Instinct and art were much more a factor in his trading than science, and he would probably be a very difficult guy to sit next to and learn from...

He was one of the first hedge fund managers and they get into a long interesting discussion about the benefits of hedge funds versus mutual funds. I won't get into it here but I came away thinking that the investing populace as a whole would be about 1000 times better off if there was more of a balance between mutual funds and hedge funds. They're just so much more flexible... mutual funds seem horribly dated to me and I can't imagine after the trainwreck of the last two years that someone won't attempt to put together a hedge fund for the "small guy."

As a hedge fund manager, Steinhardt talks often about his "exposure" to the market; or what percentage of his capital is tied to the long side of the market, and what percentage is tied to the short side. This was interesting because I realized that many traders in the RO (particularly D and B) are obsessed with their "exposure" and I guess they're trading like hedge fund managers...

Steinhardt says his main trading principle is "variant perception" which is a fancy way of saying that he's a contrarian. But he highlights a very interesting subtlety about being a theoretical contrarian and having to deal with being a contrarian at a practical level...

In order to win as a contrarian, you need the right timing and you have to put on a position in the appropriate size. If you do it too small, it's not meaningful; if you do it too big, you can get wiped out of your timing is slightly off. The process requires courage, commitment, and an understanding of your own psychology.

This sums up what you need to think about next time you start shorting a stock that is spiking "too much" in one direction or the other... most important is commitment. If you're going down that road, be prepared for the pain and stick to your position, otherwise you might find yourself getting tied to the emotional aspect of it all and blow out at bad prices. I can't tell you how often I've done just that.

And like many of the other traders interviewed by Schwager, Steinhardt talks about the importance of learning from your mistakes.

There is a very good investor I speak to frequently who said, 'All I bring to the party is twenty-eight years of mistakes.' I really believe he is right. When you make a mistake, there is some subconscious phenomenon that makes it less likely for you to make that same mistake again. One of the advantages of trading the way I do-being a long-term investor, short-term trader, individual stock selector, market timer, sector analyst-is that I have made so many decisions and mistakes that it has made me wise beyond by years as an investor.

This post is rather long already. Knowing that many of my readers (at least the Anonymous ones) are blessed with very small attention spans, I will simply end this post with two more Steinhardt quotes.

Steinhardt's advice to a layman:

Recognize that this is a very competitive business, and that when you decide to buy or sell a stock, you are compteing with people who have devoted a good portion of their lives to this same endeavor. In many instances, these professionals are on the opposite side of your trades and, on balance, they are going to beat you.

Steinhardt's elements of good trading:

Good trading is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake. You need to believe in something, but at the same time, you are going to be wrong a considerable number of times. The balance between confidence and humility is best learned through extensive experience and mistakes. There should be a respect for the person on the other side of the trade. Always ask yourself: Why does he want to sell? What does he know that I don't? Finally, you have to be intellectually honest with yourself and others. In my judgement, all great traders are seekers of truth.

Next week we discuss a trader who definitely influenced me (though not my politics), William O'Neill, founder of IBD.

Another Leather Lung, "The Sound Of Animals Fighting"

For Trader A.



Meanwhile, Cramer will appear on The Daily Show this Thursday! Should be fun!!!

The RO Report, "FUCK YEAH!" Edition

It's hard for me to contain my happiness right now.

At 11 am I was up $500 and very happy. The market was up 250 points but most was on a gap up and I thought I had traded smart. There were waves. I asked Judy, "What should I do, surf? trade?" She said, "Go surf. The market will be here when you get back."

So I surfed. And when I came home I checked the office report and saw that everyone was up size. "Man..." I thought. "I could have made back my entire loss on the year." Judy felt awful. But I was like, "It's cool. But maybe you should take a sewing class and start making our clothes."

I got on the main call with the office. Trader A was unbelievably bullish. This was between 3 and 3:25 when the market couldn't pop higher. Trader D was going along with him but scared and humorously trying to get the details at the source of his bullishness. Trader A was not forthcoming with explanations for his bullishness, he was just bullish.

Consequently, everyone concluded that Trader A sold his soul to the devil.

Everyone was afraid to buy but everyone bought and the market rewarded traders who bought.

Anyway so out of 30 traders today, 26 were gross positive or 87%. 16 traders made over $1,000 gross and only 1 lost over $1,000 gross. Probably the best day for the RO this year. I was #10 of 30 or, back to being positive on the year. Yes, I can put my blowup behind me.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader A, $42,535 on 529k shares traded.

2. Trader P, $26,344 on 722k shares traded.
3. Trader Z, $22,821 on 540k shares traded.
4. Trader D, $19,701 on 607k shares traded.
5. Trader H*, $14,173 on 27,800 shares traded.

"Chambermaid" - Trader B, -$7,128 on 776k shares traded.
2. Trader 9*, -$677 on 1,500 shares traded.
3. Trader M*, -$644 on 0 shares traded.
4. Trader T, -$246 on 4,300 shares traded.
5. Trader $, $5 on 42,600 shares traded.

Here's a "FUCK YEAH" heatmap for you.

The Daily Show: In Cramer We Trust

The next installment in my Market Wizards series is 90% complete. I will either publish it midday today or just wait for pre-open tomorrow. Until then, enjoy...

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

In Cramer We Trust

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Joke of the Day

UPDATE: Meanwhile, Barry says get long pitchforks and torches...

James Brown, "Sunny"

The RO Report, "NSFW" Edition

There's really nothing Not Safe For Work about this report, but I felt today was somewhat boring and I wanted to "sex" it up a bit.

Early on, we had a nice rally that was led by some nice strength in crude. But later we were brought down by tech and transports. Of course, financials gave back all their early gains and closed flattish. Meanwhile, the SPY put in an "inside" day. So after the early morning fun, I basically avoided the rest of the day.

I'm worried that Art Cashin was on CNBC this morning saying he has his "basket ready" to buy. He's not saying that he's bidding stocks up, but waiting for them to fall so he can buy. Then, Melissa Francis was complaining that the headlines weren't "negative enough" to create a bottom. Everyone is waiting for this massive washout which decreases the likelihood that it's going to happen.

In short, we need to start thinking of other "bottom scenarios."

The RO, which is full of big fans of all types of bottoms (I can't get enough of these bottom jokes), had a mixed day. There were some big numbers up top, but overall, it was quiet. Out of 29 traders today 18 were gross positive or 62%. 6 traders made over $1,000 gross and 6 traders lost over $1,000 gross. I was #7 of 29, happy.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader B, $14,173 on 263k shares traded.

2. Trader A, $8,734 on 122k shares traded.
3. Trader D, $8,573 on 244k shares traded.
4. Trader C, $3,412 on 144k shares traded.
5. Trader 10*, $1,496 on 1,300 shares traded.

"Chambermaid" - Trader H*, -$3,060 on 40,800 shares traded.

2. Trader V, -$1,348 on 45,100 shares traded.
3. Trader Z, -$1,331 on 25,800 shares traded.
4. Trader N, -$1,158 on 54,000 shares traded.
5. Trader T, -$1,034 on 3,600 shares traded.

Comparisons Of Bear Markets

My friends at HCPG included the fun "Four Bad Bear Markets" graph with this Sunday's newsletter. They really know how to ruin a weekend. Anyway, they lifted it from this site, which I've never read before but am skeptical of, since a quick perusal of their blogroll shows no hints of this fine blog.

Sunday Space

No tree becomes rooted and sturdy unless many a wind assails it. For by its very tossing it tightens its grip and plants its roots more securely; the fragile trees are those that have grown in a sunny valley.

-Seneca The Younger

Tom Waits, "Martha"

No good vids on youtube, but I'm obsessed with this song right now...