Pink Floyd, "Money"
If the keep printing money at the current rate, by the end of the year this song will be 42 minutes long. True story.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
The End Of America?
Found this over at "the Fly's" place. Scary stuff.
He talks about hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic. Interesting.
People are getting angry. They will get even more angry before this is all over. They were just talking about it on Lou Dobbs... the first 5 months of taxes you pay each year goes to paying off the INTEREST on our national debt.
I just put my daughter to sleep. By the time she's paying taxes, it doesn't seem like there will be any funds left to pay for things like infrastructure, or education, or (gasp!) our War Machine. All of her taxes will go to paying off interest on a debt that can no longer be repaid.
She deserves better.
So let's do this right. Follow this link, find your representative, and tell them you're sick of this shit.
NOTE: Oh, and while I'm pissed off, I wanted to just remind everyone of something... remember when Dennis Kneale said stupid shit like we were "talking ourselves into a recession?" Seriously... let's get some real financial journalists please. Perhaps if our airwaves weren't filled with propaganda, regular people could get back involved in the process and take interest in the country.
The RO Report, "Short Sellers Are To Blame" Edition
Seriously, if these fucks think that short-sellers are to blame for the market malaise, then they have serious responsibility issues. I blame Danny.
Short sellers didn't cause these companies to over-leverage and take on shitty loans.
And nice timing, really, because after the market is down 900 points, in two days, we're due for a nice relief rally. So the regulators will look like geniuses, at least for a day.
Moving on... For those not actively trading the market, just know that the market ran 200 points from 2pm to 3pm, and then dropped 300 between 3pm and 4pm. That's not normal. The bulls tried... perhaps tomorrow they'll try harder.
Once again, the RO kicked ass. And once again, most of the gains came after 3:30. Out of 22 traders today, an astounding 21 finished gross positive, or 95%. 18 traders finished over $1,000 gross. I was #10 of 22, or nicely green.
If you're interested in joining the RO, shoot me an email. We're always looking for active traders with their Series 7 license. If you don't have the 7, or care to study for it (about a month) then don't bother writing.
Also, congrats to "Trader D" for his nice comeback after yesterday's smackdown... and also to "Trader V" for kicking ass and making the top 5.
Anyway, here are today's "bosses":
1. Trader D, $30,741 on 1.3 million shares traded.
2. Trader A, $22,264 on 244k shares traded.
3. Trader B, $20,413 on 857k shares traded.
4. Trader V, $13,168 on 109k shares traded.
5. Trader E, $9,262 on 284k shares traded.
And their manservants:
1. Trader N, -$3,716 on 35k shares traded.
2. Trader 3, $172 on 2,000 shares traded.
3. Trader L, $343 on 31k shares traded.
4. Trader G, $825 on 96k shares traded.
5. Trader O, $1,005 on 24,800 shares traded.
What If The Government Saved The World And No One Cared?
That seems to be the case today. With Goldman down 40%, MS looking like it's going to $10, what are they going to do now?
Is everyone hoping a big bank comes in and buys the remaining brokerages?
Really? Which big bank?
I wonder what would have happened if BSC was allowed to fail. Would we have seen serious deleveraging these last few months? Yes, it would have been painful, but would it have ended up saving more of these companies?
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The RO Report, "AIG Conservatorship" Edition
Well, today didn't turn out exactly how everyone planned, right? All the newspapers were talking about "panics" and "meltdowns" and then we rally. Oh, and this guy, who yesterday was nearly able to call the exact closing price of the Dow, said the world was going to end.
Apparently, the iBC machine caught a touch of "gay" overnight.
Moving forward... there were crazy rumors about AIG all day that were impossible to decipher... they're being bailed out by NY... no wait, they're only being bailed out if.... the FED is doing nothing for AIG... no wait, the FED is back at the table.
It made the day somewhat choppy. Oh, and we had an FOMC meeting to deal with.
Also, at first glance, you may look at the NYSE volume and be like, "Volume is BACK!" However, you'd be wrong. In fact, the volume was heavily concentrated in AIG... over 1 billion shares traded there. Insane.
Take a gander at CEG. That stock undressed traders and spanked them before buying them Fioravanti suits. In fact, word is that "Trader F" was down $70k in that stock alone before getting a "bailout" via a nice V bottom.
Despite the drama, it was a good day for the office minus one blow-up. Out of 22 traders, 14 finished gross positive, or 64%. 7 traders finished up over $5,000 gross and 12 finished over $1,000 gross. I was #14 of 22, but solidly in the green.
Anyway, here's the top 5:
1. Trader B, $24,217 on 882k shares traded.
2. Trader F, $17,379 on 234k shares traded.
3. Trader A, $13,057 on 120k shares traded.
4. Trader Z, $12,204 on 208k shares traded.
5. Trader E, $5,966 on 200k shares traded.
And the bottom:
1. Trader D, -$62,025 on 375k shares traded.
2. Trader N, -$6,946 on 23,000 shares traded.
3. Trader H, -$3,767 on 3,400 shares traded.
4. Trader P, -$1,841 on 157k shares traded.
5. Trader T, -$1,521 on 6,900 shares traded.
See you tomorrow. Oh, and if you enjoy reading this RO report each day, fucking link it or something... tell your friends. It's important for me to influence as many people as possible.
UPDATE: AIG may be placed under conservatorship. The shares are tanking after-hours. Here's a little Q&A on what a conservatorship is.
A Tough Hold Today For The Shorts
That was a beefy morning squeeze. Don't be surprised if/when we revisit the lows in the afternoon.
Monday, September 15, 2008
S&P Lowers AIG Credit Rating
S&P lowers their ratings on AIG and keeps them on watch negative. S&P lowered their long term counterparty rating to an A-2. Per CNBC.
Larry Fucking Kudlow just tried to spin it positively... I shit you not.
Hey Larry Kudlow... FUCK YOU!
This will increase the possibility of, and hasten the speed of an AIG bankruptcy.
They have a balance sheet of over a trillion dollars.
UPDATE: Maria just chirped in saying that over-regulation is exacerbating this problem. Note to Maria and all idiots everywhere.... had these firms been better regulated, perhaps they all wouldn't be over-leveraged. Listening to her and Larry love on each other because they agreed about over-regulation was just too much... CLICK!
The RO Report, "Monster MOCs" Edition
This is a very funny job. At 3:30, the market took traders down in my office. We were all short, naturally, into a legendary squeeze. Trader Z lost over $30 grand in that 5 minutes. Even me, your conservatively trading blogger, managed to lose a few thousand.
The bloodshed was real and widespread. People were freaked.
Who knew that only 30 minutes later, all of that money would be made back, with many thousands more tacked on? After a decade of trading, you see a lot... but I can tell you, that never have I seen stocks gap down like they did at today's close.
Check any REIT.
Anyway, I may write a post detailing the last 40 minutes of my day if I have time later this evening. I hope I do, if only so I can remember. Let me just say that at 3:30 I had lost over half my month and was feeling pretty sick about it. But by 4:15, I had tripled my month. Go figure.
Out of 22 traders today, 15 were positive, or 68%. I was #7 of 22. 12 traders finished over $1,000 gross, 10 over $5,000 gross. I had my best day of the year, by a long shot.
Meanwhile, if you're a little freaked out by the 500 point down move in the Dow, don't be. It could have been far, far worse. Indeed, the worst is still yet to come. However, ultimately, this is what needs to happen for the market to have solid footing yet again.
Here's the top 5:
1. Trader F, $95,989 on 228k shares traded.
2. Trader B, $70,782 on 1.2 million shares traded.
3. Trader D, $44,421 on 474k shares traded.
4. Trader E, $36,121 on 224k shares traded.
5. Trader P, $33,319 on 137k shares traded.
And the bottom:
1. Trader H, -$8,290 on 4,800 shares traded.
2. Trader Z, -$5,846 on 308k shares traded.
3. Trader T, -$1,894 on 9,000 shares traded.
4. Trader 1, -$1,405 on 7,200 shares traded.
5. Trader I, -$833 on 8,000 shares traded.
Art Cashin's Comments, September 15th 2008
In short, below is what Art had to say.
"This is unique. This is another fine mess they've gotten us into..."
Watch the bounce, see what kind of shelf life it has, see what kind of volume...
This rally, if it turns and it's real, should look like a cattle stampede in an old Western movie. They should be chasing price with volume."
Let me tell you in case you're not watching... this is no old Western movie. If it is, all the cowboys are gay.
Anyway, another impassioned post by Denninger to "Wake Up America!" Indeed.
"The Futures Are Off Their Session Lows"
I like Carl, but how about first saying that they're down 52 points, off a low of 55.
Your financial media at its finest.
Where Will The Dow Close Tomorrow?
(FINAL UPDATE AND BUMP: This contest is only open until 12pm Monday, Sept 15th.)
The winner receives a placement in my blog headline for a week. You know... up there where it says "Sex."
Also, if you're a fellow stock blogger, you'll get top linking placement (i.e. over "the Fly" for the next week as well, plus a daily pump). That should yield you at least 6 extra page views next week.
The closest guess wins.
NOTE: CNBC is doing some special reporting right now... they're currently talking about the $40 million that AIG is trying to raise... they're talking with Buffet. Leisman, Faber, Gasparino, Ratigan.... they're all there on a Sunday night.
NOTE II: They're showing film of employees taking their shit from Lehman Brothers' Headquarters.
NOTE III: The title of CNBC's Special Report is, "Is Your Money Safe?" Of course, if they're asking this question, you know the answer is, "no."
Steve Liesman, "You don't know that anyone tomorrow morning has a huge counter-party risk hole with Lehman... how can you make a single trade not knowing who has what exposure?" NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING! NO ONE LIGHTENED THEIR EXPOSURE TO LEHMAN.
Memories....
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Where's JPM Morgan When You Need Him?
You know, back in 1907 when we had a little "panic" it was cool to have good ole JP around to whip lame idiots into shape and get the market up and running.
Who's that guy now? Paulson? Ken Lewis? John Thain?
Nope. Sorry... no savior for you.
I think the biggest part of this story that is missing from the "mainstream media" (MSM) is that this isn't just a "credit crisis" but also a "crisis of confidence" in the leadership.
And not just the leadership on Wall Street, but in the country. It's all linked.
BAC Buys MER for $29 A Share!
That's right.... MER, which closed at $17.05 on Friday, is being purchased by BAC for $29 a share, per the WSJ and CNBC.
Naturally, everyone right now is wondering why BAC didn't just let MER open, trade down to $9, and buy it then.
Clearly, this deal is an attempt to "restore confidence" in the system. But the fact of the matter is, you can't "restore confidence" purely by manipulation.
I wonder how this will all look 6 months from now. I can tell you, a year later, how BAC's 2 billion infusion into CFC when CFC was trading $22 a share looks... not so good.
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