Thursday, June 21, 2007

Virtual Office, -$734. Dow, +57.64, 13547.06.

HPT, $1112 on 73 contracts traded.
Evolution, $784 on 48,700 shares traded.
Denarii, -$148 on 2400 shares traded.
Misstrade, -$1180 on 4600 shares traded.
Me, -$1302 on 28,800 shares traded.

I blame the AMEX.

Anyway, after a blowout day for the VO yesterday, today we took a little hit.

Today was a day for the scalpers... this I learned at 10:00am when the market reversed and I was slow to cover my shorts. Reversal days are always good for the quick and nimble.

Anyway, kudos to HPT and ET for a strong showing today. And before you shed a tear for Misstrade, you should know he did okay today in his futures trades.

My daily post will be late tonight. I will try hard to get it on the site but no guarantees. Today is our turn to have the house overrun with toddlers. Screaming 2 and 3 year old kids after a day like today?

Thank goodness I have a good sense of humor...

AMEX Halting Trading Again... WTF?

Really, haven't they figured out this whole "computer" thing there yet?

2 days in a row. Gives you great confidence in that market, huh?

UPDATE: They're up and running again... took them 3 hours to "reboot" I guess!

Lindsay Manufacturing, LNN- Holy Short Squeeze Batman!

Well, I sold my last 100 shares of my 400 share long position at 41. The stock is now over 45, so I left a good amount of easy money on the table.

I sold because when the market ripped at 10:00am the stock flatlined. I got skittish and thought he might take a breather because it had such a strong run yesterday. Anyway, almost immediately after I sold it began it's ascent.

That's some run. Really, thanks to "the Fly" for the call. I believe he started buying at 31.50.

I owe that insect a cup of coffee.

"I'm Rick James, Bitch!" (Parts 2 & 3)

The video quality is poor, but still, it's hilarious.

"I'm Rick James, Bitch!" (Part 1)

You know, it's a slow day... might as well have some fun.

Coconut Records, "West Coast"

I got chopped early when the market ripped up at 10 because I was short and slow to cover. I was trying to be "patient" but instead I got my face ripped off.

We'll see what happens today. LNN on fire! I sold my shares in my trading account at 41 today. Thank goodness I'm still holding in my longer term account or I'd be angry with myself.

Here's a song that you won't be able to stop listening too. I featured the video before...

You can always find more excellent music videos by clicking the "music video" link over there to the right... things are logical like that around here.

Investor's Business Daily, Big Picture

Made a really great point today about the general market conditions.

Despite some of the large drops we've seen in the last couple of weeks on higher volume, like yesterday, the leading stocks of this rally are really holding up.

If the leaders start selling hard, THEN it may be time to worry.

Just a thought.

Animal Collective, "Slippi"

A good song to start anything, especially a day.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

The Minutemen, "Corona"

Now that I'm surfing again, I can post all my favorites from when I used to surf!

Maybe We're Onto Something Here

I couldn't tell you the last time I traded and nearly made 50 cents for every share I traded... it's been a long while. I felt like Misstrade out there! Was it the surfing, the new trading style, or HPT joining the VO? We may never know for sure...

Anyway, the day started off with a bang as LNN reported excellent numbers and gapped up a couple of points. I stayed long 400 overnight into the earnings report.



It was my best stock of the day as I net $1281 in him.

My next best stock was AGU.



After the stock ran to new highs around 11am, it pulled back sharply. The reaction bounce at around 11:30 couldn't bring the stock to new highs, so I began to short. I short 400 at 44.80 and then 200 more at 44.77. And then I had to be patient.

I covered 100 shares at 12:16 at the price of 44.42 and was immediately angry with myself. The market was feeling weak, other AG names were showing signs of weakness and I knew I should have just held.

My next cover came at 1:38, 200 shares at 44.15. While in retrospect this too was an early cover, I didn't think it was too bad because the stock hit the figure and bounced sharply. Also, at that point, the futures looked to be improving.

I covered the last couple hundred shares very near the close, around 43.60. So this was a trade that I was in for 6 hours. That's a very long hold for this trader. I net $453 in AGU.

Anyway, I had similar trades in CF and DE netting about the same. Both trades were shorts and in both case I again didn't jump to cover. In short, I made good trades in the names.

It has always helped me when an entire group of stocks is acting strong or weak. Today, the entire group of AG names started acting weak at about the same time. Check charts of POT, TNH, CF, DE, CNH, AG and MOS. There was a lot of money to be made in a sector trade here today. When my confidence builds again, trades like that can be month-makers. Patience...

Anyway, I had one other good trade today in BEN. I caught a 4 point drop between 1 and 4pm. The only bad news about this trade is that I only had 100 shares. I had limits for more above where I got the 100 shares off but they were never hit. Still, I was very happy that I didn't cover into the spike-down at 3pm. I could have, but I decided instead to see if it would run further. It did and I made an extra $100 because of that patience.



As important as my winners were today it's worth noting that my biggest loser was for -$36 in AB. Also important was my winner to loser ratio, 8 winners and 2 losers.

So while LNN started my day off with a bang, it was less than half of my total gains. I simply traded well today and I hope I can keep it up tomorrow.

Anyway, here's the stats:

P&L, $2977
Best, LNN, $1281
Worst, AB, -$36

shares traded, 7000
stocks traded, 10, 8 positive, 2 negative
total trades, 55

Virtual Office, $8982. Dow, -146.73, 13488.69.

Misstrade, $4410 on 9500 shares traded.
Me, $2977 on 7000 shares traded.
HPT, $1006 on 36 contracts and 200 shares traded.
Evolution, $589 on 61,400 shares traded.

Crappy day for the market, excellent day for the VO.

Misstrade turned some shit (fertilizer joke, stay with me people) into money with a nice short in TNH. Keeping with the agricultural theme, I had a nice gainer with LNN which I held overnight into the earnings gap-up.

HPT had a solid day and even slummed it in the stock market for a trade. ET, went on a trading binge... ET buddy, you're overtrading! HAHAHA!

Anyway, another heavy volume loss for the market. Recently, the market shrugs off these losses with bigger gains. Kind of like the whole, "Hey, they knocked down the towers now we're just gonna build them BIGGER" mentality. Let's see if it works again.

My daily post and music video will have to come later this evening as I am busy immediately after the close.

Tick Bombs

They make me skittish. And really, with this new method of trading I am using I'm thinking about just removing that indicator from my screen entirely.

The ticks shoot up to 850 and I think, "well, maybe it's time to cover the shorts" and then a second later, they're -600.

More static than anything really...

Speech About Blogging, American Politics

Whatever your political opinions may be, I thought this speech was worth posting just based on what she says about blogging and about how the media has let us down in the last decade.

Blogging, in whatever form it takes, is here to stay. And I think that's a very good thing.

Boredom And LNN, Lindsay Manufacturing

Well, I had another nice morning of surf and then I hit the screens. I was relieved to see the favorable earnings report put up by LNN. I held 400 shares into the report and the gap up helped my mood a lot!

There is a gigantic short interest in this stock which was first pointed out to me by "the Fly". And of course, there was the Wallstrip episode.



I added to my position on the pullback this morning and then sold those shares during the conference call, which was short and sweet.

A couple of things I picked up from the call:

-declining steel prices help Lindsay
-positive economic conditions for farmers help Lindsay

Should be fun to watch the next few months.

Anyway, so I've stuck to the new trading style today. One problem I'm encountering is extreme boredom. I'm a trader, but really, I'd rather be out watching birds, reading books or playing with my daughter. Since I'm not trading a gajillion shares a day anymore I find I'm losing focus. This is something I'll have to work on. I guess I can use the new free time to scan charts and look for setups, but man, it's boring!

And yes, Woodshedder, I checked the link about trade setups you provided the other day in the comments section. Much appreciated, thanks!

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

The Go! Team, "Grip Like A Vice"

A New Approach, But... Not Really

At 9:30am I slipped the Skygreen Leopards into my disc drive, leaned back in my chair and watched my screens blink madly at me. I imagined them angry at me for not engaging them. They must have wondered why I wasn't cursing at them.

But I was impassive and watched CNH with a bit of amusement as I imagined all the traders who got their balls ripped off in him trading the open. It made me feel smart. What a freaking lunatic!



For my first trade of the day, I shorted 100 shares of AMG at 129.73, this was at 9:46. As you can see, I didn't have to endure much pain in this trade, it worked in my favor almost immediately. I only threw in 100 shares because although it looked short term overbought I thought it possible he may get all the way up to 131 and I didn't want to risk too much right off the bat.



Anyway, I covered at 10:00 at 128.57. I'm still not sure if I should have. I mean, the first big question I need to answer about this new style is whether or not I should actively cover, trail stops down, or just leave my original stop in. In this case, ultimately, the stock went lower on the day.

It's already late so I can't get into everything about my day (I'm waking super early again tomorrow) but there were a couple of other trades that bothered me and that I didn't handle well.

The first was SPG which was my biggest winner of the day.



I bought 500 at 96.13 and figured if I put my stops just below the low of the day that I'd be risking about a half point. On the daily this stock has been crushed because it's a REIT and I guess it sold off with the rising interest rates. Anyway, I sold out early. 100 shares at 96.18, 200 at 96.37, and 200 at 96.85. But all of these were nervous sells. I mean, I was never as much as a dime out of the money on the trade but I was nervous whenever the market looked like it was weakening and sold really, because I was scared to lose.

It gets worse. Check out this beautiful graph for AB.



At 11:24 I bought 300 shares at 85.10 just before the breakout... right before the stock ripped straight up for 3 points. But guess when I sold... at 11:28 at 85.18. I really wanted to lock that 8 cent gain in... awful.

Finally, I get to my big loser on the day, CF. I short 500 shares at 56.50 at 2:20. When it broke the lows from 12:30, I thought it could break and follow the downward path that TNH, another fertilizer stock, was tracing. Anyway, 2:20 was basically the afternoon low on the S&P and the stock followed the futures up and squeezed me out at 57.15 for a $300 loser.



So anyway, I lost money. But I realized something that explains the title of this post. The way I've been trading for the past few months is just wrong. Everyone who has told me I was overtrading was exactly right. I am churning positions when I really don't need to.

I picked some good stocks today and had I let them run instead of getting nervous and covering, I would have made good money. I think it's a matter of readjusting and regaining confidence that I am actually buying stocks at decent levels. I mean, my entries weren't the big problem for me today, it was my exits.

It's the old rule, "Let your winners run".

What I realize is that this isn't really a huge change to my trading style. It's just calming it down... a lot. I don't need to reinvent the wheel, I just need to let the old wheel roll a bit and gain momentum and maybe it won't fall over so much... it's late and I'm going to let that corniness about the wheel slide. Hopefully you understand what I mean.

Oh, and GO LNN! Beat and raise! Beat and raise! Please! I held into earnings.

Anyway, here's the stats:

P&L, -$102
Best, SPG, $193
Worst, CF, -$297

shares traded, 9600 (about a third or a quarter of a "normal" day for me)
stocks traded, 9. 4 positive, 5 negative.
total trades, 78

Virtual Office, $6700. Dow, +23.09, 13635.91.

Misstrade, $5066 on 6300 shares traded.
Denarii, $768 on 3600 shares traded.
Evolution, $544 on 58,800 shares traded.
HPT, $423 on 30 futures contracts traded.
Me, -$102 on 9600 shares traded.

It was a big day for the VO, especially for MT who caught a nice drop in my old friend TNH.

Denarii also stepped up to the plate, Evolution had a solid bounce and HPT got off to a green start here in the VO.

I was the sole player in the red today. Although I'm happy enough with the results since I tried a completely new trading style.

My daily post will come later this evening. For now, I am chief babysitter.

Russell Rebalancing On Friday

If I recall last year this was a huge event. Things can get crazy.

Ray over at Hybridtalk deals with the issue in this post. If you're interested in trading this event on Friday you should check it out.

The VO Is Expanding

I would like to welcome High Probability Trader to our esteemed Virtual Office.

As regular readers know, the VO is a daily compilation of some active bloggers trading stats for the day.

HPT is the first non-stock trader that will be posting here, so bare with me if I screw up some futures terms now and then. I am looking forward to learning more about futures trading from HPT. If you haven't checked his site before, check it now. It is very informative and useful.

Blitzen Trappen, "A Lover Loves"

I woke at 4:30am today and went surfing. I haven't surfed in a decade. It's seriously the best thing I have done in a really long time. Sometimes, you get so far away from a good place that you forget how to get back there.

Life moves quickly if you let it. You have to slow it down.

Let's see if it helps me make money. Even if it doesn't it will probably help me not care about losing it so much!