Saturday, January 26, 2008

The Stock Market Crash Of 2008 That Wasn't

I don't normally do link-whoring weekend posts, however this was one doozy of a week and Jon Swift has me convinced I should be linking more liberally.

So, let's do this chronologically.

MONDAY January 21, 2008

Martin Luther King day, so the US markets were closed, but this is what the futures looked like. Complete carnage. Beanieville had a nice summary of the bull and bear arguments. Apparently, the bears were winning handily...



This washout led to our first and most famous trader blow-up of the week. HPT lost $31 grand, posted this now famous video, and became an Internet sensation overnight. Go ahead, watch it again... let's see if we can push it over 400,000 views.

Now there have been many theories bandied about for why the futures got so slammed. There is, of course, the rogue trader theory. However, let's talk about something that was only briefly mentioned and never discussed again... the Ducati theory.

I mean, if you've been following along for the last year, you've seen what seemed like intense dislike blossom between "the Fly" and his arch-nemesis, Ducati. Yet on Monday, "the Fly" with a very "third-tier" window display, tabbed Ducati. Perhaps there was advance knowledge of this move over in Europe... I dunno. All I know is that Ducati was tabbed and the market nearly crashed.

My personal theory on the futures selloff is The Dr. Brady Barr, "biggest idiot ever" theory. On Sunday night his infinitely idiotic "special" where he dressed as a hippo, hung out in a hippo field and then got freaked out about it aired on NGC. Then the futures sold off... seems pretty clear cut to me...

So on Monday, the futures closed near their lows... I think. Anyway, this isn't about market analysis. It's about link-whoring. Overnight, the futures went limit down and on Tuesday, we woke up to great fear and panic.

TUESDAY January 22, 2008



See that flat line between 2am and 4am? That's when the market died. As Art Cashin so aptly put it on Friday, Goldilocks was in the ICU and taking clear fluids. So early Tuesday morning, she died and, not ironically, she was killed by a bear.

Anyway, thankfully, "Ben the Beard" came in with a not so surprising "surprise" rate cut just after 8am. That's the green line. Goldilocks wins again!

Unfortunately, such volatility totally crashed all of the models that the team over at Move the Markets took so much time developing. Trendlines failed, blips blopped, and overall mass hysteria set in. Prospectus, even though he no longer trades, lit himself on fire to protest the pain others were feeling in the markets. It was an emotional day.

Oh, also on Tuesday Ragin Cajun, egged on by the perma-bullishness of Sloth over at Wallstreak, said Apple would hit $400 in a matter of weeks.

And another stock market blogger blew up, but it took 2 weeks for anyone to discover the body.

WEDNESDAY January 23, 2008



Wednesday was the kind of day that traders will talk about 5 years from now. It was probably a year-maker for many. Still, that didn't stop another blowup from happening as VO member Dehtrader, blew up his account. Another indication of the day's volatility was that fellow VOer, Wincity, used the word "toad" 327 times in a single post.

Blogging mayhem ensued, as Option Addict poked fun at certain bloggers, while those certain bloggers poked fun at other more famous, bloggers.

Even the CNBC anchors who normally stand together to pump the markets, fought like schoolchildren.

In every sense of the word, Wednesday was an emotional shitstorm.

In fact, due to all the crazed energy in the markets, Dr. Brett's blog melted and Dr. Brett was said to be "hitting the sauce" at a local watering hole.

Meanwhile, Shane laughed through the entire ordeal, like a mad buddha.

Oh, and finally, due to the market move, Ragin Cajun upped his target on AAPL to $600 a share.

THURSDAY January 24, 2008



After all of the fireworks of Wednesday, Thursday was bound to disappoint.

In fact, about the only thing I found interesting was the "subliminal message" I heard in Brian's stock market technical analysis review. Listen closely... in the middle of the video, a woman whispers "If you can hear this whisper, you're dying." True story.

Oh, and Ragin Cajun, spurred on by the ultra-bullishness of Sloth over at Wallstreak, raised his target on AAPL to $827 a share.

And another stock market blogger, blew up.

FRIDAY January 25, 2008



On Friday, the market suffered another bloodletting.

Indeed, by the end of trading on Friday, despite all the rate cutting and confidence building of the past week, the Dow found itself near 12,000... again.

Still, there was a lot of joking going around in Blogdom. HPT posted a parody video of himself and 12,000 crazy lunatics came out of the woodwork to call for his head, while Dehtrader, in his understated way, also poked fun at himself.

No DooDahs reminded us that we're freaking paranoid but also reminded me about my favorite press conference of all time. Still timeless...

In short, with the FOMC meeting next week, anything can happen. I can't imagine it being more eventful, but we'll just have to stay tuned.

Check back here often for your updates.


BONUS LINK! Ainkurn discusses HPT's blowup and what it means for his 4th tier blog.

12 comments:

Woodshedder said...

Egregiously good.

Woodshedder said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ragin' Cajun said...

lol, fuck AAPL

Dinosaur Trader said...

Yeah, I've hated AAPL after my first iPod died after 6 months...

-DT

Danny said...

good post here dt. I give it 5 stars

Dinosaur Trader said...

Thanks! That means a lot coming from a first-tier blogger.

-DT

Dinosaur Trader said...

Meanwhile, this post is now being linked by appleinvestornews.com...

LOL!

-DT

Adrian said...

Dear Dinosaur man,

I think you are a monkey. I don't think you or any other traders have the slightest idea what is going on regarding what is going to happen in the stock markets. Here is a video i took of you playing with your dog: http://www.lottoluckydays.com/chimp-and-dog.html


P.S. The markets are only going to crash on August 14, 2009

Adrian said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Adrian said...

http://www.cellwarn.co.za

Adrian said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Dinosaur Trader said...

adrian,

Did the planets tell you I'm a monkey?

Good luck with that. So as long as they're not going to crash until August I guess for now we're good to go long, eh?

-DT