Thursday, November 8, 2007

Stock Market Volatility

Yesterday I was, in a word, "de-balled." I just want to briefly touch on what it was like to be squeezed for over 50 points in FSLR.

It sucked.

Okay, moving on.

At around 3pm, my balls were handed back to me by "mother market" and I was able to resume trading. Actually, I was massively short at 3pm and got badly squeezed giving back $1000 of my then, $2500 in profits. "Mother market" is one fucked up chick.

However, due to the strength of that squeeze, I realized that it was probably a buy program. I took a look at C and GS, which were rallying hard, took a deep breath, and started to buy stock hand over fist.

Funny thing is that I really bought the wrong stocks. My largest positions, DSL, FLR and MTG all either shook me out or didn't move in a way that allowed me to profit. Instead, I made good money in smaller positions in CMI and FXI.

Basically, you could have bought almost anything and made money. That's my kind of rally.

Earlier, I caught the bottom in DRYS with 300 shares. I mean, not "the bottom" exactly, but close enough. I bought around $91.80 and sold at around $95.



Now, you can be a dick and ask my why I sold so "early" but the fact of the matter is that at 1:00 we hadn't entered "rally mode" yet and it still looked like the sky was falling. I thought it wise to take some profits and get ready for it to go back to the lows.

Anyway...

So, I'm a little shot right now. I'm going to let this post die and go play with my kid.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $5179
Best, DRYS, $971
Worst, GHL, -$422

82,100 shares traded.
22 winners, 11 losers.
461 trades.

12 comments:

artha said...

Nice job today!

I'm glad to hear you are no longer "de-balled".

Bubs said...

Good stuff today but I was expecting a 5 digit day.

tapeworm said...

nice!

Dinosaur Trader said...

Thanks!

Bubs, it should have definitely been a 5-digit day, no argument there. It's just uncanny that the 3 positions I loaded up on FLR, MTG and DSL all just fucked around instead of going straight up.

Still, no complaints.

-DT

JJ2000426 said...

I want to comment on FSLR.

I do not think it is wise for you to cover at a loss. If your intention was cover and then short again higher. That may be understandable. But cover and walk away with a loss, knowing that it probably falls back to ground a few months later, that is really a stupid thing to do. You have let your fear controled you. Shouldn't be that way.

FSLR has no future, period. It is confined by the extreme limited tellurium supply of the earth. See this article. It needs 135 tons for each GW products. Most of the factories it is trying to build will be idled.

It's own demand will drive tellurium price crazy, and cut its own throat in cost. Worse, it signed a bunch of long term sales contracts on fixed pricing terms that's dirt cheap and that the price must go down 6.5% year by year, regardless of inflation or cost overrun. That's really stupid and could lead to a losing quarter pretty soon. If you start to lose money people judge you at your book value. Guess where FSLR book value is?

For now just watch me short this bloated pig and deliver a glorious victory at the end. Just watch on. It will take some time.

You might be interested in buying some tellurium to speculate on the future price gain. I think I can make 100 folds on the material in 3 to 4 years.

Sanglucci said...

Nice day DT... Gotta luv this juice huh??

Dinosaur Trader said...

jj,

I'm very happy with my decision to cover my short in FSLR. I'm sure it will dip at some point, but I have no desire to sweat it out short from $164 as a swing.

My mistake was not covering when I had the chance to when it first gapped into the $180s.

-DT

Dinosaur Trader said...

sanglucci,

Absolutely nuts.

The juice is good as long as it doesn't drown you.

-DT

High Probability Trader said...

Nice day DINO.
I should have put up big a big number today but I'm still relapsing into my old bad ways. Maybe another day.
For sure.

Tomer said...

Congrats on the 5K+ pnl!!
Thats an amazing result, everytime the market crash day traders seem to be profitable :)
I guess many swing traders are out of the game as it for yesterday lol :)

JJ2000426 said...

Dinosaur:

You are foolish in covering your FSLR short in a hurry and you feel happy about it? You are foolish to let your greed and fear control you, and let your rational thinking sleep. Couldn't you at least wait a few days and see what happens before covering FSLR shorts?

I shorted at a much lower average price than you, and I am holding. If I cover today I would have a lower loss than you already. But I will show you a marvelous profit at the end of day when I eventually cover. Just watch me and learn patience from me.

Dinosaur Trader said...

JJ,

I'm a trader, not an idiot.

Meanwhile, I made money in the short side today, daytrading the stock. No reason to hold onto a swing loser.

Cut your losses short, let your winners run. It's the one rule that you should follow to be a good trader. Like I said, I should have covered at $180, I didn't... I wouldn't want to be holding the stock short at $250 thinking I should have covered at $219.

Good luck.

-DT