Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Dow Gain Is Largest In 4 1/2 Years

Isn't that silly? C'mon. Are things that good? Has the dollar suddenly regained it's footing? Has everyone who was poor gotten rich overnight so that they can pay their mortgages? Is Maria Bartiromo going to take off forever?

Unfortunately, the answer to all these questions is "no."

I didn't get short into this rally even though I think it will ultimately fail. I mean, when the Dow finds the strength to rally almost 600 points in 2 days it throws enough bullishness into the mix to make the bears doubt their situation. It's kind of like Exxon spending all those billions to make people doubt global warming. But the reality is, things haven't suddenly gotten better (and indeed, global warming exists).

Instead, in a few months, we'll look back on these 2 days and say, "Man, that was a great spot to get short. Remember that? BIDU at $368? And hey, remember snow?"

Anyway, I didn't do too much today. I bought ALB at the open and held for a point and made a little over $500 in him.

I did the same in MTG and KMT and I was up a little over a grand by 10:30.

Then I went surfing.

Before I left, I bought a little OSK, CNS, and KMT expecting them to trade higher. My plan was to get home by 2:00 when they released the Beige Book. Unfortunately, all of my positions sucked and when I got back, I was up about $750.

I assumed with the market up a gazillion points into the Beige Book that it would have to sell off a little after the release. I short a little FLR into the number.

Wrong again. After that, I decided to stop trading and be in a bad mood.

Anyway, here's the stats:

P&L, $648
Best, ALB, $527
Worst, FLR, -$197

9600 shares traded.
8 stocks traded, 4 winners, 4 losers.


mOOm said...

"The Model" expects downside to start Monday at the moment for a likely repeat of mid August. Don't give up hope yet!

Dinosaur Trader said...


Well, for the record, I don't care if the market goes up or down as long as I make money on the moves. Worst case scenario for me is the volatility withering away. Unfortunately, I think we're due for a quiet period here.

We'll see. What's this "model" you're referring to?


mOOm said...

It's my time series model for predicting the direction of the stochastics (daily data).