Virtual Office, -$5530. SPY, +0.16, $142.69.

Me. $428 on 7200 shares traded.
Timmay!, $346 on 5600 shares traded.
OBAT, $231 on 8400 shares traded.
Denarii, $77 on 3200 shares traded.
Ainkurn, -$152 on 200 shares traded.
Tokyo, -$218 on 190 shares traded.
Retardo, -$6242 on 40 contracts traded.

Holy fucking shit! I made over $400! Last time I made over $400 was way back on April 24th.

It's been a grind...

But the VO isn't just about me... there are other third-tier bloggers we need to discuss. Take Retardo for example. Dude sits on a position for weeks and then gets blown out of the water. Best thing he can do now is get famous like HPT and make a viral blowup video or something... at least that might get him laid. Go click some ads. Together, we can bring that loss down to $6240.

Speaking of viruses, check out this cartoon... I loved it.

Anyway, nice reversal for the bulls today. But guess what... we're still stuck at unlucky 13,000 on the Dow.

In fact, I'm going to make my year-end prediction for the Dow right now... 13,000.

All weekend, I'll be stuck in churches and luncheon places celebrating communions. It's gonna suck. However, I'm in such a good mood today that it isn't bothering me much yet. Tomorrow, when I re-enter my customary bad mood, I look forward to passing loads of gas-guzzling SUVs and laughing scornfully at the drivers.

Enjoy your weekend.

NOTE: Check out this classic post from "the Fly." Kind of describes how I've been feeling about the market for the last few months.

Bush Sacrifices Golf For The War Effort

Indeed, he's a mighty fine leader...

Ruby Suns, "Oh, Mohave"

I just came back from one of my best surf sessions ever.

I wish I had more time to get into it, but I want to be able to describe the feeling you get when you're on a wave and everything lines up perfectly.

The only thing I can say is that you just feel like you have more time. Not more time as in, you thought it was 9:30, but it's really only 9:27. More time as in seconds take longer to tick... they stretch out. You're just stuck, nailed to the moment and the moment sometimes feels like forever.

I've felt high since leaving the beach. I'm hoping it translates into a good trading session as well. I'll get more into the "stoked" thing later... I need to get to work. But I wanted to share something. Here's a great song to be "stoked" to.

Good luck today.

Beach House, "You Came To Me"

No Follow Through

I'm busy tonight, so this will be a very quick post describing my loss for the day.

Basically, today I got chopped. My biggest loser was for $67, but the problem was that my largest winner was also for only $67. I just couldn't get any follow through in my positions.

I had a couple that initially worked in my favor only to reverse negative. These included AGU at $89, BEC at $69, and MON at $125. In each of these trades I bought the stock, made a dime or so, and then got out as they quickly reversed through my buy points.

My worst stock of the day was ATW... this one I did as an "over lunch" hold. I short at $104, put my buy stop at $104.25 and went with Judy to watch our daughter's swim lessons. While I was out, the stock dropped all the way into the deep $102s, only to reverse strongly and stop me out at $104.34. A bummer, but not a bad play. I did have buy limits in, but they were below $102.

Close...

Sorry for the runty and humorless post. Enjoy the night.

Here's the stats:
P&L, -$249
Best, BHI, $67
Worst, ATW, -$67

10,800 shares traded.
12 stocks traded, 4 winners, 8 losers.

Virtual Office, -$1135. SPY, +1.80, $142.57.

Denarii, $44 on 5000 shares traded.
OBAT, -$37 on 14,000 shares traded.
Me, -$249 on 10,800 shares traded.
Timmay!, -$413 on 4000 shares traded.
Tokyo, -$480 on 113 shares traded.

Here's a good trading rule... don't trade hungover.

Well, looking at the VO, I may not have been the only one out on a Wednesday night... in fact, this must be one of the lamest VO boards of all time... hopefully I'll be able to announce some changes next week. It's still developing.

However, I have to say, I was a little underwhelmed by the response I got from last night's VO post, asking for some nicknames/historical characters etc. to name potential "ghost" VOers. Not that I don't have plenty of ideas, I just thought I'd get some good feedback.

Again, the volume sucks... again, energy and ags were on the move... this market is really getting dull. As we head into the end of May and Memorial Day, I expect it to get a little lamer. My real office was about 50/50 today in terms of up traders to down traders... a couple of guys had big days... I'm guessing they made good money on the oil stocks. A couple of oil names had crazy ranges. But in a good trading market, my office would be more like 80% green. This isn't a very forgiving market.

Crude oil was all over the map today, enjoying a $6 intraday trading range. WTF?

Anyway, lets hope for a more interesting day tomorrow.

"Groggy-Eyed And Fried"

Vagina, 2008.

About ten years ago, this essay was published. I read it, and liked it enough to remember it, but I didn't really get the full meaning.

Everything is on a scale, of course, but last night, while drinking a little bit more than I'm accustomed to, and enjoying the company of a new group of people, I thought of the essay again.

Judy and I had an excellent time. I'll work on a post describing the whole scene, but right now, I'm just focused on recovery. I will relay the following... the hosts made a gigantic tray of paella. The diameter of the tray was at least 3 feet. Honestly, I'm not even sure how you store something like that. But anyway, the tray was overloaded with huge clams and mussels.

A girl next to me picked up a clam that was slightly open and gave it an odd look. "I mean, how do you eat something like that?" she asked, "It looks like a vagina." In real life, as is often the case on this blog, I'm blessed with the gift of "smart-assism." However, that comment caught me a little off guard, and was actually, too much of a layup. I let it pass.

The girl quickly corrected herself, "Not my vagina...."

Judy and I ducked out of the party early and head to a local watering hole. We played backgammon and drank. The table next to us, was filled with Germans. They were being very rude to the waitstaff. I wondered, with the dollar as weak as it is, if that wasn't a glimpse into the future, as more Europeans take advantage of the exchange rate to vacation, or even buy second homes, here.

Perhaps soon, we'll be complaining about "loud and obnoxious Europeans" in the same way that Europeans now deride us "dumb Americans."

Edwards Endorses Obama

In a move to "solidify support" within the party...



One question... had he done this is February would the nomination race ended months ago, thus saving us from all types of awful news coverage?

You're 5 months late, Mr. Edwards. DT had this race sussed on January 2nd.

Punk.  Go weep on poor people.

Morrissey, "Suedehead"

I'm Rich!

I had a couple of decent trades today and one heart breaker. Which would you like to hear about first?

The heart breaker?

Seriously... you people suck. You just come here to make yourselves feel better about your own shitty trading. Here's the heart breaker.

First of all, I have a very closely-held watchlist. True, HCPG and some other "election rigging" bloggers make a big deal about their watchlists... but I guard mine with my life. I certainly wouldn't share it with you since you're so intent on watching me fail.

HRS was on my watchlist this morning. I was watching for a "base and break" to $60 trade.



Worked beautifully if you were patient enough to buy at .77, instead of at .65. Ironic, I know, but there was no pullback after .77... the thing just soared.

I loved this stock at $59.65... I really thought this was going to be "the one" to help boost my confidence. If any of you HCPGers are lurking, here's why I liked it so much. Same thing as YGE yesterday... It started a little wild and volatile, and slowly edged up to the high of the morning in an ever-tightening range. The volume was okay... but ultimately, I was early.

Anyway, speaking of HCPG, here's one I caught today that I think they mentioned back in mid April, CY.

Here, the target was $30. CY is kind of a stealth solar play... not sure why. Trust me. Anyway, with the solar stocks strong again, led by Ragin's FSLR, I was keeping a close eye on CY from the open. You'll notice that the chart below is a 1-minute graph. I now find it useful in the first 20 or 30 minutes of trade to watch 1-minute graphs... there's just so much action/information in the first few minutes of trade that a lot of it gets lost on a 5 minute graph... even on a 3 minute graph.



As you can see, this wasn't exactly a "pretty" trade for me... but fortunately, it was profitable. I'll work on "pretty" later.

Okay, and my other good trade today is another from my watchlist... CFX. This one I was watching for a run to $24.



Anyway, I hope I can build on today's gains tomorrow. I feel good again. I need to re-read my posts from last week... to remember exactly how I fucked it up so badly.

Here's the stats:
P&L, $345
Best, CY, $283
Worst, HRS, -$86
9400 shares traded.
8 stocks traded, 5 winners, 3 losers.

NOTE: Check this post for a discussion on stops... it "riffed" off of my "respecting stops" post from yesterday...

Virtual Office, -$604. SPY, +0.29, $140.84.

Tokyo, $565 on 719 shares traded.
Me, $350 on 12,000 shares traded.
OBAT, $273 on 8000 shares traded.
Denarii, $21 on 8400 shares traded.
Tardo, nothing.
Timmay!, nothing.
Ainkurn, -$398 on 500 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$1415 on 12,600 shares traded.

It was a pretty active day for the indexes. They all ran early and then sold off hard into the close. The Dow dropped over 100 points in the last hour and a half of trade. Volume, which was quiet all day, picked up late. I mean, the market still closed in the green, but only because the government won't let it close in the red anymore...

NO INFLATION MY ASS!

Anyway... it was a mixed day for the VO. Our newest member, Tokyo Trader, took the top slot. He edged me out... so instead of saying that he had a "nice day" or something "team building" like that, I'll say this... I hate Tokyo. I spent 10 days in Tokyo... I can't tell you how many times I got bodychecked by aggressive old Japanese women on the subway.

Meanwhile, Sanglucci took it on the chin again... I'd link him up and say "go visit his blog to see what went wrong," or something, but the fucker doesn't update his blog anymore... so, no linky. Perhaps if he updates his blog, mother market will let him make money again.

Finally, I have this idea for the VO which I'm not yet ready to share. However, pretend I had a mass of traders and I could report their P&Ls but not their real names... I need nicknames. I was thinking of historical Wall Street figures, and I have other ideas too, like all the rabbits from Watership Down and shit... but I figured I'd ask you people for some too... who knows if this will develop... I'm just doing this "in case." So, fire away.

NOTE: I haven't mentioned the VIX in some time... mostly because I find it too depressing. Adam, however, is just fine with discussing depressing. Note that he souped the post up with a shot of cheerleaders photoshopped as your favorite CNBC anchorettes.

Colbert Interviews The Anti-Gun Lobby

Man, this is classic. Dude is so damn smart.

Fuck All Cats

Long time readers of this wondrous blog know that last summer, we had a difficulty with one of our cats, Doc.

As a brief recap, we went away on vacation, and a friend of ours fed the cats. But instead of having our friend walk into our basement to feed them (people have entered our basement and never returned) we brought the food bowls into the kitchen. This seemed to trigger a strange reaction in Doc, and he started using our kitchen as his litter box.

Apparently, "don't shit where you eat" doesn't apply to cats.

If you've never had the chance to smell cat urine, consider yourself lucky. It's a vile, thick smell that is very hard to mask.

We worked out the problem, and after months of retraining, Doc resumed using his litter box in the basement.

Then, this morning, on my way back from a dawn patrol surf session, I got a call from Judy. "I have some bad news," she said.

I'm half Italian. When the phone rings and the voice on the other side tells you that they have "bad news," you're pretty sure someone has died. However, when Judy told me about the puddle of pee in the middle of the kitchen floor, I almost wished my Uncle Santo had died instead... he's had a nice, long life.

Anyway, I came home to find Doc sitting by the crime scene, nonchalantly licking his paw. "I will fucking ruin you!" I shouted at him... he looked up, without a shred of fear, and walked past me to lay in a sunspot.

So, fuck all cats.

O'Reilly At His Best

Maybe the only time I've been able to watch him for more than 5 seconds...

See more funny videos at CollegeHumor

"the Fly" Wins Again!

Congratulations to "the Fly" (small "t") for getting recognized by some third-tier Canadian newspaper... Actually, since Canada is a fourth or fifth tier country, and it's a third-tier newspaper, that really waters down the significance of the event... 

I guess it's not a big deal afterall.

Well, at least it spurred on the comment section of this post.  That "Martinez" bit and the karma points gag, was classic.

Fleet Foxes, "Katie Cruel"

Backstage Sessions : Fleet Foxes - Katie Cruel (Cover) from Hard to Find a Friend on Vimeo.

Respecting Stops

I think most of the time, when traders say they need to respect their stops, they're talking about the stops they place to control downside risk.

They'll set a stop, say, at $50, and if the stock comes down to $50.10, they then move that stock down to $49.85 or something, to give the position "more room." Then, some traders even add more...

I am, of course, familiar with that particular trading problem... I've been there. However, I'm having a slightly different problem with my stops lately.

Lately, when I'm in a winning position, instead of following the stock up with a stop, I cancel my stop and sell at market, only to watch the stock continue to move in my favor. I think this comes from my current "confidence crisis" because I'm so afraid the stock is going to reverse and take me out at a loss, that I sell and take whatever profits I have.

I know this is not unique.

I think that ultimately, it's a better problem to have than cancelling stops on the way down and not being able to accept losses, only to watch them mount. However, it may be equally frustrating.

I had a few cases today where I sold out of positions instead of respecting my stops... with longs in YGE, MLM and GWW. Had I simply respected my stops, I'd be green, instead of slightly down.

First, MLM. I showed good patience not getting involved directly at $115, because I suspected a hosejob. I bought at $115.21, when it emerged from the base. The position immediately looked good, because it got some volume right away. This was an HCPG watchlist stock, with the target as $116. I checked the daily and saw that back in February, it gapped down from $116.96 and so I thought if it had some mojo, that it could even fill that gap. So I placed a sell limit at $116.24 and watched to see what would happen.



At $116, it hit some turbulence... but really, in retrospect, very, very minor turbulence. Still, I was afraid the stock would reverse back to my entry, so I took my $60 gain instead of respecting my stop and my target. Perhaps I was so afraid to lose my gains because this trade basically brought me flat on the day... still, had I respected my target, I'd be up $28 on the day instead of down $14.

The next stock, GWW, was one from my watchlist. I was expecting a run to $89. Again, I bought at a very good time, and was not really in danger of losing money on the trade.



As you can see, the stock ran straight through $89, picking up volume along the way. It ran easily up to $89.50 before taking a breather and forming a tight base between $89.35 and $89.50.

I save the most heartbreaking for last. YGE was another HCPG play and a run to $24 was expected. While the stock jerked traders around early, it cleaned up nicely into the afternoon. I think the main problem I had with this particular trade was that it came in the middle of the day... a time I don't like to trade actively.



As you can see from the graph, I completely fucked up this gem. I kept buying higher and getting more and more nervous... Really annoying to look back at that and think about what could have been.

Meanwhile, I have him blogrolled, but if you want to see how a trader at the peak of his game handles some of these same trades, go check out Wall Street Warrior.

Anyway, today was a battle. But really, I only have myself to blame for losing money in KSU, a complete waste of a stock. I need to avoid losing money in shit like this...



Bottom line, if I can have more bad days like this, where I lose only $14, I'll be a happy trader. Despite my poor performance, I can take some positives out of today.

Here's the stats:

P&L, -$14
Best, YGE, $249
Worst, KSU, -$170

13,600 shares traded.
10 stocks traded, 5 winners, 5 losers.

Virtual Office, -$1272. SPY, +.05, $140.51.

Ainkurn, $282 on 300 shares traded.
OBAT, $230 on 11,000 shares traded.
Tokyo, $135 on 1115 shares traded.
Retardo, no trades.
Me, -$14 on 13,600 shares traded.
Timmay, -$450 on 600 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$1455 on 35,000 shares traded.

Still a quiet market out there, but with significant movement in energy names... in fact, today kind of felt like the 'ole, "sell financial, buy energy, ags and commodities" play from earlier this year. Only problem with that is that the ag names mostly dropped...

Also, FLR knocked the cover off the earnings ball ripped, creating "pin action" rallies in SGR and JEC.

My real office was at 50/50 again... the VO got a little smoked. However, score one for the kids from Mississippi. Perhaps in the ultimate irony, when I'm poor and they're rich, we'll trade houses or something... developing...

Anyway, it's that day I hate... the house is about to be overtaken by ravenous 3-year olds since we're hosting "playgroup."

Have you ever been to one of those drive-thru safaris at a theme park? You know the kind where a wild group of Baboons run out from a cluster of trees to rip the headlights off your car? Playgroup is like that... so I need to get the heck out of here... However, I'll have an extensive daily post up later this evening.

Free And Legal Music

Back in the early 90s, I liked Nine Inch Nails. I haven't bought an album of theirs since The Downward Spiral, but I'll listen to the new one, because it's absolutely free.

Check it out.

Keeping Perspective

After the cyclone in Mynamar and now the earthquake in China, your "quiet boring life" doesn't seem so bad, huh?



You never know when your "quiet boring life" will be turned upside down, so these kind of events should serve as a constant reminder to be thankful for what you have, when you have it. Perspective is all important.