Thursday, November 8, 2007

Sniff The Wombat


The $40 Pizza, Part Deux

Read part 1, here.

It's a running joke among my family and friends that without Judy, I'd be in big trouble or perhaps, already dead. It had only been 2 hours since she'd left and already I had botched a simple financial transaction and managed to lock myself out of our house.

Why? You might ask, did I not have my key? Because the day before was Halloween and I didn't want a lot of shit in my pockets when we went trick-or-treating. I don't like carrying shit in my pockets. I removed the house key from my keychain and then, I had forgotten to return it.

I put my pizza down on my back porch and secured it in place with some rocks, so that it would not be blown by the wind. I walked down the block to get a spare key from a friend. She's an old woman who lives alone. We hadn't visited her in awhile. She opened the door with a big smile.

She just bought a new car. She proceeded to tell me all about it.

"I mean, you won't believe it. I say 'XM5' and the radio comes on. I mean, isn't that something? Can you believe that? Guess what color it is? 'Midnight Moon!'"

It was clear she hadn't seen another human being, in weeks.

She continued... "It has a 'spoiler' and I told the guy, 'Look, 70 year old women don't need spoilers! HAHA! And he winked at me and said, 'No, but 50 year old women do.' I mean, can you believe that?"

This kind of talk went on for some time while I imagined my pizza getting colder and clammier. Still, there was nothing to be done. I nodded... I said, "Really?" I fixed her printer, hooked up her DVD player and patiently sat as she showed me a number of chain emails she had received in order to help her determine the credibility of each.

"Don't send the money to Nigeria," I cautioned. "I think that one's a fake."

Then we drank some scotch and she showed me nude photographs of herself taken when she was 23 years old.

Anyway, by the time I got out of there, key in pocket, the dwindling light had faded and it was pitch dark. Luckily, I live in a neighborhood that doesn't suffer from excessive lighting. we don't have street lamps and most people don't use obnoxious floodlights to keep their asphalt and grass well lit while they sleep. I walked home, enjoying the stars.

As I neared our house I got excited about my "Mardi Gras" again, even though it would now have to be reheated.

Take a walk at night and you'll notice that your footsteps seem to make more noise than they do during the day. With all of the recently fallen leaves and beech nuts on the ground, I sounded like Autumn itself as I walked up the driveway. However, this peaceful rustling of my feet was soon overtaken by a commotion and a cackling twitter, taking place by my back door.

I stopped to listen. "Hey!" I said, in a stage whisper. There was no answer... I walked closer.

Something ran by me and I noticed a strong odor in the air.

"Tabasco?" I said to the darkness.

My $40 pizza had been eaten by raccoons.

When I got inside I called Judy.

"Please come home," I pleaded.

Pavement, "Frontwards"

Moving on...

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

Nighttime Reading

I learned a lot from this article.

Turn off those useless outside lights!

A True Trading Disaster

For the record, this is the first time I've ever been 40 points out of the money.



I'm not trying to be flip about this trade or anything... I guess I got short at $164 or so.

It's almost humorous. Meanwhile, we got a "cheap pizza" tonight... no "Mardi Gras."

It's a bad trade, it blew up my swing account, and I'm moving on. There are two lessons I take away from this:

1. Things can always get worse.
2. Should they "get worse" life still goes on. Gotta keep moving.

I will keep making money in my daytrading account, re-fund my "swing account" and hopefully not make this type of fucked-up mistake again.

Odd Nosdam, "Kill Tone"

If there's one instrumental you listen to this year, let it be this one. Featuring birds and "baby-baby" my daughter's favorite doll.



Meanwhile, don't expect a daily post tonight. I'm turning my crap off.

Virtual Office, $5034. Dow, -360.92, 13300.02.

Evolution, $1448 on 91,700 shares traded.
Me, $541 on 41,300 shares traded.
Denarii, $130 on 800 shares traded.
Akalawoo, $48 on 1 contract traded.
Wincity, no trades.
Stewie, no trades.
OBAT, -$68 on 14,000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$135 on 3480 shares traded.

Wow, well we blew right past those lows from October 19th at 13,407.

It's hard to really read how serious this sell-off is though because at this point, it's clear that so much volume is trading off of the NYSE that the volume numbers I report each night are basically irrelevant. We traded about 1.6 billion on the NYSE today. Good, but not worthy of this market move. I'm sure there was tons traded elsewhere that would really blow these volume numbers up.

If you were silly enough to watch CNBC at the end of the day you were treated to Maria making a fool of herself once again as she breathlessly explained that the market on close sell imbalances which come out EVERY DAY were going to take the market down in the last 10 minutes.

"I can only tell you that things are going to get worse in the next 10 minutes," she explained. I guess that first 320 points had nothing to do with us losing another 40 more there at the close. It's called a "trend" Maria, and it's going down. Please, CNBC... do something about her.

The VO did okay today, but really, I thought we'd have some big numbers.

I have shit to do right after the close so my daily post will be late.

UPDATE: I just blew up my "swing" account by shorting FSLR into earnings. In retrospect, that was dumb. The stock is up $30 afterhours. I was short 100 shares. Luckily, I covered the other 200 I was short before the close.

The $40 Pizza, Part 1

The other evening, Judy took our daughter out to a "book party." That meant I had 4 hours all to myself. The first thing I did, was to call in a "Mardi Gras." The "Mardi Gras" is a pizza, but calling it a pizza is like calling Melissa Theuriau a "woman."

To be absolutely clear, the "Mardi Gras" is the best pizza ever conceived by man.

It's loaded with shrimp, jalapenos, andouille sausage, tabasco, and onions. It's truly a "man's pie." In fact, it once made a less manly friend of mine cry... true story. After I eat a "Mardi Gras" Judy will avoid me for a full day because you don't digest a "Mardi Gras" as you do normal food... Instead, you sweat it out... you breathe it out.

Anyway, I drove the 20 minutes to "Pizzacatos." I hadn't been there in awhile, but I found an old promotion punchcard in my wallet... one of those things where if you buy 10 pizzas, you get the next one free. Ours had been punched 7 times.

I handed it over with $40 to the girl behind the counter (the "Mardi Gras is a $24 pie). She looked at the card like it was some weird crazy thing that confused her. She cocked her head, made a WTF? kind of face and walked into the kitchen holding my card up to the light as if to verify it was a real object. She also took my $40.

I stood at the counter and stared longingly at my pie sitting atop the pizza oven. A TV was tuned to Fox News and some lobotomized looking man sat at a table, watching the show and nodding while practically drooling all over himself.

"Fucking lemmings," I thought.

A fat woman swung open the kitchen door. "We don't take these anymore," she said, holding up the promotion card as if it were a toddler's dirty diaper. I stood there, blinking wordlessly for a moment while she continued, "Oh yeah, we stopped using them a long time ago" in order to emphasize the fact that I hadn't dined there in so long that I was completely out of touch with their policies and therefore didn't deserve much respect.

She was a big woman with many "creases."

She reached up, grabbed the pizza box and slid the pie across the counter to me, all the while staring me dead in the eye.

Due to the confusion with the card, the intimidation by the "creased" woman or my elation at having the pie in my hands, I forgot to pick up my change. Like a pervert buying a porn mag, I made a quick exit while averting any unnecessary eye contact with the other patrons. I walked nervously to my car and sped off.

I didn't realize that I had paid $40 for my pizza until I was nearly home. I thought about turning around right then, but instead thought of "the creased one" and told myself that I'd just call the restaurant and pick up the money the next time I was in the area. I was really hungry and just wanted to get inside to be alone with my "Mardi Gras."

I pressed a little harder on the gas pedal and made it home in record time, narrowly avoiding a raccoon as I made a quick turn onto my block. I bounced over the curb and parked hastily in my driveway.

"Mardi Gras" in hand, I marched triumphantly and purposefully towards the back door. I grappled my keychain with my right hand while holding the "Mardi Gras" with my left, all the while balancing on my left leg as my right held the screen door open.

As I stood there balancing, I realized the real problem... I didn't have my house key.

Part 2 tomorrow.

Freaky Hybrid Trade Of The Day! FLR!

Yesterday in my daily post, I highlighted how the Hybrid Market has ruined trading in illiquid names like BAP. However, lest you think that the Hybrid Market only wrecks havoc in low volume names, take a gander at this 1 minute chart for FLR today.



Really, is going from $144.50 to $151.50 in 3 minutes an orderly market in a stock that trades millions of shares a day?

Short answer is "no." They Hybrid Market is an abomination on many levels. We're almost at the year anniversary and I can already hear the NYSE getting ready to tout it's success with a big PR bash. However, I still can't find any traders defending this joke of a market. Where's the much promised "price improvement and matching?"

Meanwhile, I made money shorting FLR this morning... so don't go thinking I'm just bitter or something. I just can't stand what has become of the NYSE.

Strong Oil, Weak Dollar. Time To Horde Food

Nuts, dried beans...



Meanwhile, I'm not even going to turn on CNBC. I can't imagine they're saying anything useful.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

"The Fly" Shutting Blog, NYSE Vows To Remain Open

"The Fly" has announced that his blog will be shutting down "live" on Monday November 12th, at 10:00am.

While it's somewhat awkward for such an event to take place smack dab in the middle of the trading day, John Thain, CEO of the NYSE, was quoted as saying, "While we expect a significant drop in trading activity on Monday, we'll remain open for trade."

He went on to say that the exchange would acknowledge the "passing" of "the Fly" with a moment of silence.

Ron Paul Sets One-Day GOP Fundraising Record

Not bad for a guy who has "no shot."

Who knows?

The Cure, "Fascination Street"

A Profitable Slumber

We had a late night. Saw Darjeeling Limited, really liked it and then had drinks with friends afterwards. Last time I had seen 11:30 on a worknight was in 1997, so I was hurting this morning when I woke up.

I planned on taking it easy today anyway, since I got so smoked yesterday. All day long I was trading with small positions, maxing out at 400 shares. I basically scalped all day... I hate trading like that, but I wanted to focus on taking profits and cutting losses quickly.

My best stock of the day was ABK.



They had a conference call at 10:00. It was pretty clear that they were going to come out and bash on the analysts who have recently been bashing on them... it was stupid of me to not load up more since I had good conviction on this play and it worked out.

Another good play I had today was DSX. This was a "darkside" trade... or short.



I noticed the relative weakness in this stock as compared to the other shippers at around 10:30 or so. The stock had a large bid (a rarity in the hybrid world) at $38.72 and I figured if he smacked it out that he would plunge a bit if the other shippers started to weaken. That exact scenario played out and the stock dropped nearly 2 straight points in short order.

Yesterday really messed with my head. I was so consistently off with my timing in the morning that it's hard to believe. Also, I lost about $800 in BAP in the first 15 minutes of trade. I'm posting a 1-minute graph here so you can easily understand the absurdity that occurs when you mix the hybrid market with thinly-traded stocks.



So, I got short right away, at around $72.85. I hated the trade and went to cover at what I thought would be a small loss. Instead, when I went to cover, the "ask" jumped above the $73 and I lost a quick $200. Worse yet, I screwed up and forgot to cancel my buy-stop order. So, instead of just covering my short, I also got long, up near $73.50. It was basically like I was trading with myself. There was absolutely no liquidity and the quotes were all 1x1 and spread wide. The stock quickly dropped over a point so I lost money on my short and then on my "accidental" long.

This trade made me so angry, so quickly, that really, I should have at least walked away from the computer for a few minutes. But I thought yesterday was going to provide good opportunity, so I kept plugging. Clearly, a mistake. Yesterday did provide great opportunity, but it was later in the day.

The point is, I'm happy I bounced back today but I traded really nervously. So, even though I "won" I feel like I "lost" a bit.

Hopefully, by the end of the week I'll be back on track.

Here's the stats:

P&L, $1074
Best, ABK, $556
Worst, CNS, -$155

25,000 shares traded.
15 stocks traded, 11 winners, 4 losers.
147 trades.

Virtual Office, $7568. Dow, +117.54, 13660.94.

Me, $1074 on 25,000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $1027 on 3260 shares traded.
Denarii, $336 on 3800 shares traded.
Akalawoo, $48 on 1 contract traded.

Wincity, $34 on 200 shares traded.
OBAT, -$520 on 18,200 shares traded.

Evolution, -$2486 on 167,000 shares traded.

Okay, so I made it past 11am today. Unfortunately, it was the kind of day that puts a trader to sleep... choppy melt-up. So I didn't pay too much attention. I did chores, etc.

Unfortunately though, I passed my "blow-up cold" to OBAT and Evolution. Oh, and the supercomputer known as Misstrade made gobs of money again... but does anyone even notice anymore?

Meanwhile, is Guy Adami always stoned or does he just not give a fuck? And Maria with that 4:00 "Do you know where your money is?" thing... that's just annoying. "Yes, Maria, I know where my money is. Will you please shut up?"

Anyway, volume was decent today on the NYSE, we traded close to 1.5 billion shares. Better than the totals of a few weeks ago but hardly exciting.

I've been blogging lightly, I know. I'm having some computer issues. I think the guys from MtM threw a hex on my computer or something... My internet is "broken."

I think it's time for a new one... I priced out a Dell today with huge memory and dual-core processing. Perhaps that will help. $1049. Basically, today's profits for a new comp... we'll see.

Anyway, I have a highly researched post about "pizza inflation" going up tomorrow. Be sure to check it out.

Finally, GO ISLES!

Cell Phone Idiots, Beware!

Sure, these things are illegal in the US, but so is marijuana... and who hasn't tried that?

I wish I had one of these babies back when I was taking the train to the city everyday. Before cell phones, I was able to read a couple of books a week and actually enjoy the ride.

After cell phones, I stopped commuting.

Worst Person In The World

Roger Ailes wins due to his editing of criticism for his new, floundering, FBN.

Pretty damn funny!

America's Wealth Spectrum

Here it is.



That there is a graphical representation of said "spectrum."

What I want to know is how am I up near the top and still struggling?

I blame the hybrid market, and SWC.

Monday, November 5, 2007

Brief Foray Into Negativity

While I don't normally revel in the pain of other's trading losses, the blow to my awful day has been cushioned by seeing SWC down 15% or so. Sorry, JJ. Not really.



I guess it's a buy here?

A Musical Representation Of My Shitstorm

I don't feel like writing. Instead, here is a brief idea of what my day was like, musically.

First off, I was turned away at the gates of prosperity. In kind of a nasty, cold way.



Then, I took a drive. It was odd because I was happy to be heading to the beach for perfect surf with a full day ahead of me, but unhappy because I had to lose gobs of money to be in this situation.



Finally, a cleansing.



Now I'm off to watch the new Wes Anderson movie. Hopefully, that completes my escape from the day.

Back to your regularly scheduled blogging tomorrow. My apologies.