Fucking Cats

Hello, my name is Dinosaur Trader and I've had bearish thoughts....

(pause)

Whew! Well, I'm glad I got that off my chest. It's important, because the last time I got all bearish, after the friggin blowup in February, it took me months to get over it... truth be told, I may not be over it yet.

Anyway, today is the worst kind of day for me. Friends and family alike will listen to the news, see that the Dow was up 187 points and ask me expectantly, "So, did you do well today?"

NO! I SUCKED! AND FOR THE RECORD, JUST BECAUSE THE MARKET IS UP DOESN'T MEAN EVERY DAMN TRADER IN THE WORLD IS MAKING MONEY!

I have some anger issues today. I'm working on it. Fucking cats. He's down there, locked in the bathroom wailing away and to be honest, I don't give a damn. I can be a stubborn prick. He can stay in there until he learns how to use that goddamn box. If you're confused by this aside, read my post from earlier today. My entire house reeks of cat urine.

Anyway, what went wrong today? I just got chopped. No big disastrous losers, just too many medium sized losers. It feels ironic to say this on a day when the Dow ripped, but I just didn't see many easy opportunities today. Check the VO, I wasn't the only one...

Not sure how to explain it but I think on some level I just couldn't believe the market was ripping so much. So every time I got long, I looked for quick exits and didn't let my winners run. More often though, I was putting my stops too close and getting stopped out. So I suffered the death of many small cuts, not the death of one fatal blow to the skull.

My best trade of the day was a UBB long right after the Beige Book came out. But even in that trade I sold early. Later I bought back and got chopped. Sigh...



My worst trade of the day was in my old friend TNH. After the 11 am run-up, I thought he'd flay the shorts by consolidating and making a new high. Eventually, this is what happened. He just dropped much lower while consolidating than I expected. What was especially frustrating is that I sold 15 cents from the low of the move... I just missed being able to hang in there and avoid a loser. But, as it was, I took the loss.

Later, after 2pm, I would take over a point out of him on the long side. So we're good again. No hate for TNH today. Just a medium loss in him, $368.



Anyway, I know how the VO did but I'd love to hear how others did. Please feel free to share how your day went via the "comment" section. And if you're interested in posting to the VO, shoot me an email.

I'm still confused how I failed to find more winners today...

Here's the stats:

P&L, -$484
Best, UBB, $304
Worst, TNH -$368

shares traded, 49,600
stocks traded, 24, 9 positive, 15 negative (there's the rub)
total trades, 327 (too much churn on a day where I never had traction)

Virtual Office, $1389. Dow, +187.34, 13482.35.

Misstrade, $2365 on 5600 shares traded.
Evolution, $385 on 64,700 shares traded.
Denarii, -$134 on 2000 shares traded.
Me, -$484 on 49,600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$743 on 6000 shares traded.

It was an uninspiring day for the VO.

Yes, yes, Misstrade made good money again but the sun also came up today. I hardly notice anymore.

Outside of that, it wasn't an easy day. The morning was downright choppy and that move at 10:00am seemingly came out of nowhere. Then we were back to chop until the Beige Book was released at 2. That's when the market really ripped.

Anyway, it was an impressive move. When the market moves that much, I discount volume which today, was again on the lighter side, at least on the NYSE where it about equalled the amount traded yesterday.

It's hard to tell what the market is going to do next. Perhaps the answer is right there. The market may not be ripping up thousands of points anytime too soon but after today, it doesn't look like it's about to tank either...

Time will tell.

Choppy Action, Misbehaving Cats

I was very disciplined this morning and didn't get too involved in the chop. However, just when I was going to step away for lunch I made a boneheaded trade and took a hit. I'm waiting the Beige Book data at 2 to make more moves. My win/loss ratio today is disgusting.

Anyway, we went away last weekend. Our friend watched our 3 cats for us. Upon our return, we were greeted with the acrid odor of cat urine in our kitchen. However, the litterboxes are hidden deep in the abyss that is our basement...

We hoped it was just one of our cats signaling its disapproval with us leaving for the weekend. However, the next day there was a fresh pool of urine in the kitchen. A new crisis in the household had begun.

We singled out the guilty party yesterday in mid-squat and locked him in the downstairs bathroom with his litter box. We told him that until he learned how to use the litter box that he wouldn't be allowed to leave the room. A look of fear crept across the face of our daughter, who has been doing well with her potty-training but isn't perfect yet. She was scared, yet equally fascinated. Would we lock her in the bathroom if she had another accident?

All last night, our cat wailed from the bathroom. This morning we woke and the other two cats were sleeping next to the bathroom door in a show of support. Hours later, I walked downstairs and found a new puddle of piss... we are now facing a cat insurgency.

I'm not sure how this will all pan out, but we just spent $50 on different "enzyme" activating cleaners to rid our kitchen of the smell and hopefully prevent another "attack".

We never counted on this cat solidarity movement that has gripped our household since Sunday evening. The vibe here is thick. And with me losing money today, many threats have been made in the direction of the cats. They blink at me slowly seemingly unmoved by my rants.

Meanwhile, my daughter has not had an "accident" since Sunday.

Developing...

Pavement, "Greenlander"

Pavement = High School and College.

Nirvana, "Lithium"

Solid Day

Today felt good. Not one bad loss or stubborn trade. I didn't fight the market. I missed the rally between 1 and 2 because I really don't like to trade those hours, but didn't chase it. Had I chased, I probably would have been buried. Instead, I waited and got short again.

This tape is weak.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of mediocre bounce days here and there. Tomorrow should be a telling day because of all the data to be released. Should be fun.

Anyway, once again, TNH made my day. Here are the trades I made in him.



9:33:50 Buy 100 @ 95.35 (100)
9:34:37 Sell 100 @ 95.60 (flat)
9:40:03 Buy 200 @ 97.54 (200)
9:41:00 Buy 100 @ 97.10 (300)
9:42:52 Buy 100 @ 97.86 (400)
9:44:32 Buy 100 @ 97.33 (500)
9:45:12 Buy 100 @ 97.73 (600)
9:47:40 Sell 200 @ 98.00 (400)
9:49:02 Sell 100 @ 97.65 (300)
9:50:40 Sell 100 @ 97.50 (200)
9:50:53 Sell 200 @ 97.42 (flat)
11:23:12 Buy 100 @ 94.64 (100)
11:26:44 Sell 100 @ 95.64 (flat)
11:35:27 Buy 100 @ 94.86 (100)
11:47:22 Sell 100 @ 96.08 (flat)
11:55:51 Buy 100 @ 95.89 (100)
12:13:35 Sell 100 @ 95.83 (flat)
14:52:20 Short 100 @ 94.42 (-100)
15:00:42 Short 100 @ 94.93 (-200)
15:18:40 Buy 100 @ 92.91 (-100)
15:27:33 Buy 100 @ 92.25 (flat)

It was somewhat frustrating because I had a hard time building my normal position in him today. But again, I showed restraint by just taking what I could get where I wanted it instead of chasing the stock all over.

Anyway, besides my win in TNH I had solid gains in ARD and CMI. My only triple-digit loser was in WCG. One trade, one loss. Kept me sane.

In other news, I raised some cash in my swing account (see the stockalicious ticker near the bottom of this page) by selling my laggards WAT and ARWR. It was tempting to want to sell my big winners, MVIS and KOG to lock in the gains, but I thought it was a better idea to sell the stocks that could turn into potential large losers faster. Needless to say, at this point, I'm keeping a close eye on the general market. It could be a good time to start scanning for some shorts.

I'm looking forward to trading tomorrow. I can't remember the last time I was really interested to see how the market would react to economic news, but intrigue is back!

Anyway, here's the stats:

P&L, $1230
Best, TNH, $737
Worst, WCG, -$114

shares traded, 29,200
stocks traded, 21, 11 positive, 10 negative
total trades, 203

Virtual Office, $5106. Dow, -129.95, 13295.01.

Misstrade, $3432 on 5300 shares traded.
Me, $1230 on 29,200 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $386 on 18,200 shares traded.
Denarii, $40 on 2400 shares traded.
Evolution, $18 on 30,200 shares traded.

That's what we like to see, not one red VOer today!

Anyway, as I mentioned in yesterday's post I'd be careful short term in this market. The rally that began in March (after the February "panic") is in danger of being killed here. Distribution days are piling up on all the major indexes. Bounces, such as the one that came on Friday, are coming on light volume while the selloffs are coming on higher volume. Not healthy action if you're a bull.

That said, a minor correction would be welcome... markets don't go up forever. Taking a step back would be good. Back to the VO...

Misstrade continues with his winning ways, while I had a pretty solid day myself. That brings me back into the green for the month. It would be nice to begin to build a nice cushion again so I could feel comfortable taking more risk... especially if we're going to decline a bit here.

Dehtrader had a solid bounce-back day after having a discouraging loss yesterday. Denarii makes in 9 in a row and ET barely eked out gains. But, as I like to say, green is green.

Tomorrow should be an interesting day. Lots of data out including the Beige Book at 2pm.

Do Not Ship Orders Start Tomorrow

This from Hybridtalk...

Good news if you're a little unhappy about paying .025 per share when you get an "improvement" of a penny on your order. No one likes uncontrollable fees.

UPDATE: One problem, it only applies to 28 stocks... and only to limit orders... let's hope they roll it out quickly.

The New Pornographers, "My Rights Versus Yours"

New song, can't stop listening to it. Pop perfection.

Sam Cooke, "A Change Is Gonna Come"

Believe me, I'd love to see us reverse and go positive... but with the bond yields skyrocketing, I don't see it happening... hence, this song.

Attitude Trader

Another site that I regularly monitor is Attitude Trader. Here's a guy that is trying to get back into trading. The best thing is that his focus, front and center, is on keeping his attitude correct and approaching the market from a good place mentally.

He gives himself a +1 for a good attitude day and a -1 for a bad attitude day. I joked with him awhile back that my Attitude Index for the year was a -72 or something.

Even if you don't keep a graph of your mental ups and downs (as he does) it's an important reminder to just check in with your 'tude' and notice how it changes the way you approach the market each day.

Short Da Bull

Hey, just a reminder. Don't forget to check this new website. I think it's a great idea that just needs more users to really get off the ground. It has already provided me with some stories that I wouldn't have found on my own.

If you see a story that you like, just click the "vote" button with the number on it to the left of the story. If you see one you don't like, you click "bury".

That said, don't bury mine, mmmkay?

Check it out!

Panda Bear, "Comfy In Nautica"

From Panda Bear's recent solo effort. Think of what Brian Wilson of the Beach Boys would have sounded like if he did even MORE drugs...

Viking Moses, "Crosses"

I urge you to find the studio version of this song. It's on this compilation which may be very difficult to find. However, if you do find it, you will be rewarded.

What he's saying is, "Without love, life is gone. Without life, love goes on and on."

I'll Take It

There was a lot of movement in individual names today even if the indexes all closed close to flat.

Tha Latin American stocks like, ITU, UBB, CPA and CPL all had good gains. The steels and other metal stocks took hits. The Agriculture names like, DE, TNH, CNH and AG all moved well.

So, there was a good amount of opportunity out there today. And thus, I had some good winners. Unfortunately, I also had some decent sized losers.

My big winner was TNH. I caught a nice smooth long between 94 and 97. After the morning correction and squeeze, the stock ran up into the mid 94s, only pennies away from the high of the morning. I assumed that many people short the stock in the morning and were hoping that TNH wouldn't see 95. However, TNH being TNH, of course he'd see 95 again... he hates shorts.



With that in mind, I started buying in the low 94s expecting him to bust through 95. This went according to plan. My mistake was not letting the winner run more. I covered most by 95.5 and the rest by 96.5. While it was frustrating to see it run a couple of points higher, I was happy with the win anyway.

Another good trade I had was a short in SPG. After a hard and fast drop in the early morning, the stock trading back up to the 100 area. I figured this might serve as resistance because of the psychological impact of the even number 100 and also because it was testing the morning's opening price on a day that the REITS were downgraded. They've been weak now for the last week. And a glance at the daily chart of SPG shows a deteriorating technical situation (although here I've posted the 5-min).



Anyway, I ran into my normal mistake of taking losses by shorting strong names early. Thus, I suffered substantial squeezes in DE and MTW. I covered DE at *THE* high of the day... this added insult to injury because immediately after I covered, the stock dropped hard for almost 3 points. Sigh...



Despite making this mistake again, i.e., shorting strong stocks while they are still acting strong, I stuck to my new 3-trade rule and didn't get stubborn. So my worst of the day was a $441 loser in MTW. Bad? Yes. Debilitating? No.

Anyway, here's the stats:

P&L, $367
Best, TNH, $839
Worst, MTW, -$442

shares traded, 42,200
stocks traded, 23, 13 winners, 10 losers
total trades, 276

Virtual Office, $972. Dow, +.41, 13424.80

Misstrade, $1113 on 3700 shares traded.
Me, $367 on 44,200 shares traded.
Evolution, $226 on 48,600 shares traded.
Denarii, $69 on 600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$803 on 6000 shares traded.

Well, it was a quiet day in the VO. This is somewhat expected on a summer Monday. Volume was very low today. The good news is that Denarii is on an 8-day win streak. Small wins often breed big confidence.

And yes, I'm a little upset I missed the rally on Friday. But the thing is, I like to watch volume. Friday's rally came on volume that was much lower than the volume shown during Thursday's sell-off and only equal to the volume shown on Wednesday's sell-off. So I probably wouldn't have been very aggressive on the long side anyway... My real point is that if we were to see another couple of sell-offs this week on higher volume it may be time to start thinking defensively near term.

Of course, I'm only a trader and thus, I suffer from severe myopia when it comes to forecasting the markets.

Anyway, hopefully we get some more volume and better trading conditions tomorrow.

The Books, "The Lemon Of Pink"

Waking Up

Crusty eyes this morning... now here are some people who know how to wake up!

CROX

As I traveled to the great north this past weekend hanging onto my CROX short from Thursday and pondering the squeezing I was enduring, I couldn't help but feel tiny amounts of hatred for every foot I saw clad in the fluorescent colored form that is a CROX shoe.

At the same time, I felt great pity for the people who were dressed in this manner. Clearly they are the fashion victims of the day.

In time, CROX shoes will go the way of parachute pants and leg warmers. The question is, are they recyclable? Or will one day our landfills resemble huge piles of M&Ms because of them?

Speaking of recyclable, I heard a very interesting report this morning on NPR about what happens to all those millions of plastic Poland Spring bottles. 33,200 are made each MINUTE! Check out the report here.

Evolution Trader Hosting VO Today

So, we're on the road and for the first time, staying at a Hampton Inn. We used to stay at B&Bs all the time, but many of them do not appreciate toddlers... some do, but it sucks to have to "shush" your kid the whole time if they don't.

Anyway, the one we're in is actually pretty nice! I'm pleasantly surprised. And hey, free wireless! They even were nice enough to give us the AAA discount. I think we'll skip the breakfast though....

So here's a nice long video of an intricate prank from a Japanese television show. For the first minute or so, they explain the prank, and, unless you speak Japanese, you can skip over it. Make sure you watch until they "upgrade" the "mission"... damn they're nuts!

Don't forget to check Evolution Trader's site (still can't figure how to create links with a Mac...) for the VO at 4. Good luck everyone! Personally, I hope CROX drops 5 points. I stayed short some overnight... chances are it's been upgraded...