Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The RO Report, "Wall Of Worry" Edition
There's an old saying on Wall Street, that the stock market climbs a "wall of worry" when it's moving higher. Clearly, there are plenty of worries for this market to climb. We're right up near our early December highs and heading into what should be a relatively slow couple of weeks.
Sorry, Devildog, no "new lows this month."
I was surfing today with an old floor trader. He seemed certain that we're going to 6,000 on the Dow. There seems to be a lot of this certainty out there... that's not great if you're bearish.
Anyway, it was a decent day in the RO for those who weren't fading the rally. Lots of money made in the last hour of trade. Shit, I may take off tomorrow morning too.
Out of 24 traders today, 14 finished gross positive, or 58%. 9 traders made over $1,000 and 5 lost over $1,000. Not great numbers there, just average. I was #7 of 24. Not bad for 2 hours of work... especially after a great surf session.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader C, $40,423 on 551k shares traded.
2. Trader Z, $29,805 on 328k shares traded.
3. Trader N, $22,505 on 98,000 shares traded.
4. Trader P, $19,056 on 442k shares traded.
5. Trader 9*, $9,077 on 300 shares traded.
"Chambermaid" - Trader B, -$18,875 on 701k shares traded.
2. Trader G, -$4,226 on 45,000 shares traded.
3. Trader H*, -$2,879 on 4,200 shares traded.
4. Trader 10*, -$2,575 on 300 shares traded.
5. Trader D, -$1,131 on 504k shares traded.
NOTE: If you want to be included in this year's "Best Stock Market Blog Post of 2008" shebang, than email me your favorite post of the year that you've written. Time is running out.
Also, don't forget that you can get your daily "funny money" links over at Shane's new blog, "Butterknuckle."
Surfing > Trading
Surfed all morning. Completely exhausted and ready to hit the markets.
Looks like a chop fest so far. Glad I missed it.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Third Eye Blind, "Semi-Charmed Life"
Dew-dew-dew, dew-dew-dew-FUCK YOU! This song, this band... SUCKS.
The RO Report, "RIP Wealth" Edition
Okay, so I'm being a bit over the top there, but I did lose money today for the first time in a long time. Add to that some new fears among my office mates that we're in for some rough sledding and I'm spooked.
Anyway, I have a lot to say today but little time. Unfortunately, I have to get right to the numbers.
Out of 27 traders today, 16 were gross positive, or 59%. 8 traders made over $1,000 gross, while 3 traders lost over $1,000 gross. I was #22 of 27. Lightly smoked.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader D, $13,261 on 161,000 shares traded.
2. Trader Z, $10,817 on 153k shares traded.
3. Trader B, $4,903 on 207k shares traded.
4. Trader P, $3,552 on 179k shares traded.
5. Trader E, $3,157 on 102k shares traded.
"Chambermaid" - Trader N, -$16,210 on 162k shares traded.
2. Trader H*, -$3,051 on on 9,500 shares traded.
3. Trader 9*, -$2,914 on 1,500 shares traded.
4. Trader R, -$277 on 9,800 shares traded.
5. Trader 7, -$195 on 22,000 shares traded.
Also, since I lost money and no one sprayed, today is the first time in awhile that I'm forced to post bad music as punishment.
Smoked Myself Early
Notice the wording on that title. I just traded like an idiot, trading way too much size on a dead day. There's absolutely no volume.
Specifically, what I did was try to short JPM with size through $29. Apparently, that's a very sticky area today and I got chopped.
I'll come back in the afternoon and try to shave this loss. Ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow, you should be hitting singles, not swinging for homeruns. Word to the wise.
Friday, December 12, 2008
The RO Report, "Phoenix" Edition
I'll have the post up a little late...
UPDATE: And when I say "late" I mean this weekend. We're busy preparing for our daughter's birthday party and I won't have time to get to the post tonight. So, I give you the rare reason to stop by this weekend. Thanks for all the nice comments on my earlier post.
Okay, Sunday night and I'm about 10% recovered from the birthday party. We'll see where that gets me.
On Friday I named the report the "Phoenix" edition because it featured me coming back from a huge deficit in the last hour of trade. Also, the market started off smoked and ended the day positive. So, you know, like a Phoenix rising from the ashes...
I guess I was feeling pretty dramatic at 4:05 or whenever I came up with that title.
Today, I'm not feeling dramatic at all and think the title is very hokey.
Anyway, I don't remember too much about Friday. I've completely erased the work portion of that day from my memory. Okay, I remember one thing, which is kind of funny. I bought a boatload of FLE at .09 and sold it at .13, all in a manner of seconds. Pennystocking indeed, suck my nuts Timmay.
Yes, apparently I'm in an aggressive mood. I guess I'll just get right to the numbers.
Out of 25 traders on Friday, 15 finished gross positive, or 60%. 7 traders made over $1,000 gross, while 4 traders lost over $1,000 gross. Average numbers. I was #6 of 25, very happy considering the depths I touched.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader B, $15,240 on 409k shares traded.
2. Trader Z, $13.518 on 276k shares traded.
3. Trader C, $12,778 on 252k shares traded.
4. Trader P, $5,245 on 290k shares traded.
5. Trader 9*, $3,646 on 3,800 shares traded.
"Chambermaid" - Trader H*, -$6,781 on 4,200 shares traded.
2. Trader R, -$1,323 on 33,000 shares traded.
3. Trader L, -$1,149 on 27,600 shares traded.
4. Trader D, -$1,003 on 423k shares traded.
5. Trader E, -$855 on 48,900 shares traded.
IMPORTANT INTERNET NOTICE: Our friend Shane who was the brains behind Wall Street Fighter has moved on. If you enjoyed his morning links before, you can find them now at his new blog, "Butterknuckle." In addition, for something completely different, (think Break meets "Am I Hot Or Not") check his other project, "Looku." Please, go check out his new sites.
See You Later Happy Birthday "Munch"
Solid surf and my daughter's fourth birthday means I won't be trading this market until the late afternoon.
Don't blow up.
UPDATE: Surfing trip cancelled due to the impending Great Depression/riots.
That's right. I left the house pre-dawn, stepping out into a tremendous gale (I think "tremendous gale" sounds very 1930s, no?) and drove to my surf buddy's house. Water had flooded the back room of his house and he didn't look like a millionaire... he looked haggard. Still, we pressed on.
As we sped down the local turnpike, his thumbs were flying all over his Blackberry as he shot emails off to important clients. He's a real estate agent, and he's working on a couple of large deals. Anyway, despite the fact that I left my house without looking at the market on purpose, so as not to be detracted from my decision to "take off," I gave in and said, "Dude, anyway you can get me a futures quote on that thing?"
He looked at me like I was from 1996 and said, "Yeah, it's called CNBC." Seconds later he was staring down at the screen, face blue from the illumination and said, all too calmly, "The futures are down 311 points."
311 points!
"Dude," I said. "I can't surf if the fucking futures are down 311 points," and I made a hasty U-turn, much to his chagrin. His Blackberry flew out of his hands and slid down into the netherworld that exists between my passenger seat and the door. "Fuck man," he said. "Chill out!"
"Dude," I said. "Don't you get it? They're gonna drive the market down to the lows again! Citigroup is gonna die! The fucking REITs are gonna be fucking worthless! My mother is gonna be living in my fucking basement and there's gonna be riots in New York FUCKING City if the fucking terrorists don't blow it up first! FUCK DEVILDOG!"
"Dude.... what???" he said, looking scared. "What the fuck is a "Devildog?"
Perspective washed over me now that I had released my fears. I looked over at him. He seemed so innocent and somewhat naive. "Ah, nothing... don't worry. Look, the Great Depression may come, but the winds will still blow, waves will still break. I'll surf with you tomorrow morning. It's supposed to me nice and clean."
In a span of 10 seconds, I went from "the world is ending" to "the waves will still break" and I understood, briefly, why I'm a daytrader.
For the next few minutes, we drove in silence. I dropped him off and stopped for a coffee in town. I ran the 20 feet from my car to the entrance of the coffee shop, arm up to brace myself against the wind (again very 1930s, no?). The cafe door slammed behind me and it was like I had entered a new world.
The store was overly bright, peaceful, and quiet. The dulcet tones of an instrumental version of "Morning Has Broken" streamed out from behind a speaker camouflaged to look like a Santa Claus. I walked over to the "coffee station" and studied the 6 pots of coffee in front of me, each with a different colored handle.
"Are these all the same?" I asked the man behind the counter. "No, my friend" he said, and pointed to what looked like a "coffee chart" that was in a stand up frame next to the pots.
The hopeful music coupled with the 6 flavors of coffee made me feel like this place was sure to go out of business sooner, rather than later. Still, I paid over $8 for two coffees and a hunk of blueberry crumb cake... so perhaps they'll make it after all.
I got home and crept upstairs. My daughter was still asleep. It's her fourth birthday. Her foot was sticking out of the bottom of her comforter and I kissed it. She woke up.
"Daddy!" she said, beaming. "Happy Birthday, sweetness!" I said, beaming now too.
She stood in the middle of her mattress, chin up and shoulders back to make herself appear "super-tall." "See how big I am now, Daddy?" she asked. "I'm four!"
Judy stumbled into the room, wrapped in a blanket, squinting. "What are you doing home?"
Forgetting about the Dow for a moment and taking a glance at my daughter who was now jumping up and down on her bed I said, "I wanted to wish 'Chela' a Happy Birthday before she went to school."
UPDATE: Surfing trip cancelled due to the impending Great Depression/riots.
That's right. I left the house pre-dawn, stepping out into a tremendous gale (I think "tremendous gale" sounds very 1930s, no?) and drove to my surf buddy's house. Water had flooded the back room of his house and he didn't look like a millionaire... he looked haggard. Still, we pressed on.
As we sped down the local turnpike, his thumbs were flying all over his Blackberry as he shot emails off to important clients. He's a real estate agent, and he's working on a couple of large deals. Anyway, despite the fact that I left my house without looking at the market on purpose, so as not to be detracted from my decision to "take off," I gave in and said, "Dude, anyway you can get me a futures quote on that thing?"
He looked at me like I was from 1996 and said, "Yeah, it's called CNBC." Seconds later he was staring down at the screen, face blue from the illumination and said, all too calmly, "The futures are down 311 points."
311 points!
"Dude," I said. "I can't surf if the fucking futures are down 311 points," and I made a hasty U-turn, much to his chagrin. His Blackberry flew out of his hands and slid down into the netherworld that exists between my passenger seat and the door. "Fuck man," he said. "Chill out!"
"Dude," I said. "Don't you get it? They're gonna drive the market down to the lows again! Citigroup is gonna die! The fucking REITs are gonna be fucking worthless! My mother is gonna be living in my fucking basement and there's gonna be riots in New York FUCKING City if the fucking terrorists don't blow it up first! FUCK DEVILDOG!"
"Dude.... what???" he said, looking scared. "What the fuck is a "Devildog?"
Perspective washed over me now that I had released my fears. I looked over at him. He seemed so innocent and somewhat naive. "Ah, nothing... don't worry. Look, the Great Depression may come, but the winds will still blow, waves will still break. I'll surf with you tomorrow morning. It's supposed to me nice and clean."
In a span of 10 seconds, I went from "the world is ending" to "the waves will still break" and I understood, briefly, why I'm a daytrader.
For the next few minutes, we drove in silence. I dropped him off and stopped for a coffee in town. I ran the 20 feet from my car to the entrance of the coffee shop, arm up to brace myself against the wind (again very 1930s, no?). The cafe door slammed behind me and it was like I had entered a new world.
The store was overly bright, peaceful, and quiet. The dulcet tones of an instrumental version of "Morning Has Broken" streamed out from behind a speaker camouflaged to look like a Santa Claus. I walked over to the "coffee station" and studied the 6 pots of coffee in front of me, each with a different colored handle.
"Are these all the same?" I asked the man behind the counter. "No, my friend" he said, and pointed to what looked like a "coffee chart" that was in a stand up frame next to the pots.
The hopeful music coupled with the 6 flavors of coffee made me feel like this place was sure to go out of business sooner, rather than later. Still, I paid over $8 for two coffees and a hunk of blueberry crumb cake... so perhaps they'll make it after all.
I got home and crept upstairs. My daughter was still asleep. It's her fourth birthday. Her foot was sticking out of the bottom of her comforter and I kissed it. She woke up.
"Daddy!" she said, beaming. "Happy Birthday, sweetness!" I said, beaming now too.
She stood in the middle of her mattress, chin up and shoulders back to make herself appear "super-tall." "See how big I am now, Daddy?" she asked. "I'm four!"
Judy stumbled into the room, wrapped in a blanket, squinting. "What are you doing home?"
Forgetting about the Dow for a moment and taking a glance at my daughter who was now jumping up and down on her bed I said, "I wanted to wish 'Chela' a Happy Birthday before she went to school."
Thursday, December 11, 2008
The RO Report, "Support Broken" Edition
All morning long, the guys in the RO were remarking about how light the volume was. Once the afternoon rolled around however, volume picked up and the market got more used than a greased gerbil in a gay bar.
Support was broken on the SPY, on the QQQQ and financial stocks just shit themselves.
It makes me question this recent rally. If the market were healthier, support would have held today. It's very possible that we rip over those levels again tomorrow, but it doesn't speak well for the strength of any future rally when good support doesn't hold.
Anyway, the RO doesn't care about the health of the market. They just care about the health of their accounts... and their accounts inflated nicely today.
Out of 26 traders today, 19 finished gross positive, or 73%. 13 traders finished up over $1,000 gross and 2 lost over $1,000 gross. It was a solid day. I was #15 of 26, or grossly underperforming... however, in my defense, by 3pm I was watching Mary Poppins and wearing a glitter crown while my daughter cut me paper hearts.
I'll have to have a strong word with Judy about that... developing....
Meanwhile, special kudos to "Trader P" for taking his game up a notch. He made a bucket of money during a time of day that he normally doesn't. Well done, boss.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader C, $40,841 on 237k shares traded.
2. Trader Z, $21,401 on 119k shares traded.
3. Trader B, $21,037 on 585k shares traded.
4. Trader P, $18,430 on 140k shares traded.
5. Trader N, $16,054 on 207k shares traded.
"Chambermaid" - Trader A, -$6,865 on 56,800 shares traded.
2. Trader 9*, -$4,244 on 400 shares traded.
3. Trader 6*, -$899 on 0 shares traded.
4. Trader 7, -$119 on 32,000 shares traded.
5. Trader X, -$67 on 1,000 shares traded.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader C, $40,841 on 237k shares traded.
2. Trader Z, $21,401 on 119k shares traded.
3. Trader B, $21,037 on 585k shares traded.
4. Trader P, $18,430 on 140k shares traded.
5. Trader N, $16,054 on 207k shares traded.
"Chambermaid" - Trader A, -$6,865 on 56,800 shares traded.
2. Trader 9*, -$4,244 on 400 shares traded.
3. Trader 6*, -$899 on 0 shares traded.
4. Trader 7, -$119 on 32,000 shares traded.
5. Trader X, -$67 on 1,000 shares traded.
Bulls Getting Bashed
I need to see that movie in its entirety.
Check out this video of the opening scenes from Challenge of the Tiger.
You must watch the ENTIRE thing - no skipping.
Yawn!
I know it sucks for trading, but this action is perfect for the market if you're hoping for more upside anytime soon.
After a 1500 rip off the lows, the market needs to digest. Just take it easy and don't chop yourself to itty bitty pieces in this low volume environment.
I'm chilling until the afternoon. "Porn Thursday" post forthcoming!
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The RO Report, "In Santa's FACE!" Edition
I know we have a few weeks to go before Christmas comes, but the market is trading like it's ready to take an early holiday vacation. Unfortunately, when I went neutral after we hit the 50dma on the Dow on Monday, the market decided to listen. We seem to be caught in this 8600-9000 "death range." Volume is slackening and the intraday ranges are getting smaller.
Of course, this could be contraction before expansion. It could be like, I dunno... the market could be swimming in a really cold lake, but soon, it's gonna get out of the lake, dry off, and meet its girlfriend in a cozy little cabin by the lake... hmmm...
I'm not taking that analogy any further. Frankly, I'm slightly bothered it popped into my head.
All day, the RO was hating on me because I made a little money in the morning in coal longs (which I shouted scums!) and they were busy getting smoked. Towards the end of the day, when I still hadn't lost my money to join them in their misery, they were like a drunken crowd of fat ugly women tearing some hot chick apart.
Or, maybe this Bob Dylan lyric is more to the point...
While one who sings with his tongue on fire
Gargles in the rat race choir
Bent out of shape from society's pliers
Cares not to come up any higher
But rather get you down in the hole
That he's in.
By the end of the day, they caught me and I wasn't even a boss. They're out there, reading this now, some of them no doubt snickering but here's why I win... I have a really nice blog. Like, it's really important and people connect with it. And you know, they're just jealous.
LOL in your FACE office!
Anyway, out of 25 traders today, 15 were gross positive, or 60%. 6 traders made over $1,000 gross, while 5 traders lost over $1,000 gross. I was #6 of 25. All kidding aside, kudos to Traders Z and N for their solid comebacks. Still, it wasn't enough to prevent the office from "manservitude" today.
"Chambermaid" - Trader D, -$11,627 on 561k shares traded.
2. Trader C, -$10,212 on 342k shares traded.
3. Trader E, -$2,034 on 69,400 shares traded.
4. Trader J, -$1,879 on 52,600 shares traded.
5. Trader H, -$1,379 on 8,700 shares traded.
"Lucky Pierre" - Trader Z, $6,191 on 263k shares traded.
2. Trader N, $4,314 on 214k shares traded.
3. Trader 9*, $3,748 on 1,800 shares traded.
4. Trader P, $1,781 on 288k shares traded.
5. Trader 6*, $1,643 on 0 shares traded.
NOTE: Tis the season for my annual Best Stock Market Blog post. If you're currently not on my blogroll and wish to be included, please email me and my "Best Stock Market Blog Post Committee" (BSMBPS) will review your submission. Thank you.
Auto Urine Therapy
"Trader E" sent me this pic... I thought that "drinking your own pee" was a fitting metaphor for the market. Meanwhile, I'm really hoping 8600 holds. If not, my new 8600-9000 trading range theory will fail.
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