Outkast, "Spottieottiedopaliscious"

The RO Report, "Dinner With The Gods" Edition

I'm driving into the big city tonight so that the RO can take me out to dinner and buy me drinks and women.

Needless to say, the RO report will be egregiously late.

Also, the RO kicked ass...

UPDATE: Okay, here we go. I'm tired and drunk, so no analysis. I'm in Trader P's empty apartment, another victim of the "housing crisis."

Out of 27 traders today, 18 were gross positive, or 67%. 14 traders made over $1,000 gross and 6 lost over $1,000 gross. I was #12 of 27, simply okay.

The Bosses came back in a big way today, really taking it to the Manservants in an uncomfortable, "non-lubricated" sort of way.

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader D, $54,547 on 813k shares traded.

2. Trader B, $45,347 on 995k shares traded.
3. Trader E, $22,261 on 191k shares traded.
4. Trader C, $21,475 on 272k shares traded.
5. Trader P, $13,965 on 259k shares traded.

And the Manservants...

"Chambermaid" - Trader H*, -$14,747 on 8,400 shares traded.

2. Trader 10*, -$2,358 on 8,400 shares traded.
3. Trader J, -$2,219 on 183k shares traded.
4. Trader 6*, -$1,555 on 0 shares traded.
5. Trader 3, -$1,176 on 14,400 shares traded.

I'll be trading from the physical RO tomorrow. I haven't traded in the big city for years. I haven't traded next to real people for years. I'm almost sure that means I'll get really smoked. Still, I'm looking forward to it.

As I puzzled over the cost of the dinner tonight, "Trader B" told me I need to stop thinking about money. Make a lot, spend a lot, lose a lot. If you're going to be a good trader, there's something to that...

Re-Instate Short Selling Ban?

Just heard that come over the box...

Like that worked the first time...

Fucking idiots run this country.

The Neti-Pot

The market can make you feel dirty. It's fucking awful out there today. Guys have had massive swings and if you haven't covered at perfect times, you're getting stomped.

When the market makes me feel bad, I now turn to the Neti-Pot. See below.



Sure it looks funny, but it'll clear your head out like nothing else. And sometimes, that's what you need to trade right.

UPDATE: Here's more info.

"The Bottom" Coming Soon To A Market Near You

One of the signs of a bottom according to the IBD is when you start seeing bears on the covers of major news magazines. When the national media (not just CNBC and other 24-hour "news" outlets) become obsessed with the bear and the bottom, the fog will soon clear. So it actually made me feel pretty good this morning to read this article in The Times, that seemed to suggest we were screwed beyond repair.

Below is an excerpt.

But it was financial stocks that bore the brunt of the selling, and, for many analysts, seem the most worrisome. Financial shares are plunging far below the levels plumbed in October, when panic gripped the markets. On Wednesday, Citigroup, the hobbled financial giant, plunged 23.4 percent to a mere $6.40 in an avalanche of sell orders. Once the most valuable financial company in America, Citigroup is now worth less than U.S. Bancorp.

Big banks like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo & — all of which, like Citigroup, have received billions of dollars from the government — fell more than 10 percent.

Goldman Sachs, the former employer of Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary, sank to its lowest level since it went public in 1999. Analysts predicted that Goldman, the most profitable bank in Wall Street history, would suffer its first loss as a public company.

Even Warren E. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, which owns the Geico Corporation and recently invested in Goldman Sachs, fell 12 percent, its steepest decline in more than two decades. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 427.47 points or 5.07 percent, at 7,997.28. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index closed down 6.12 percent or 52.54 points at 806.58 while the technology-heavy Nasdaq ended down 6.53 percent at 1,386.42.

But even as markets tumbled, analysts saw few signs of capitulation, that final burst of panicked selling that typically marks a market bottom. If anything, Wednesday’s new lows are a sign that Wall Street has farther to fall.

Another newer sign that Mr. O'Neill and his group might be interested in, is the bearish commentary left on blogs. If you read "the Fly's" blog, you might have noticed that the "head bear" in the comment section, "DevilDog," has been particularly triumphant lately, explaining that he has the perspective of real pain, and therefore knows that we're screwed beyond belief and that this time it's different and that we're never going to bounce and that America is dead forever.

I agree, in many ways we are "fuckified," but these bears assume fear is stronger than greed. It's not. The two are equal and they're what make the market work.

Remember the idiots in 2000 who were saying silly things like "Dow 30,000!" in just a few years? Well, they're cut from the same cloth as the idiots who are now saying Dow 4000 until 2040.

Greed just won't let that happen. This is short-term myopia. The market has been around for hundreds of years and human psychology hasn't changed much since then... why should it now?

And of course, the fact that once again I considered buying a gun and storing grains and water in my basement mean sometime in the next couple of days there's gonna be a massive spike. Hopefully, this time it will hold.

Anyway, the scariest outcome from a trading and investing perspective is what reader "Jawbone" mentioned last night in my comment section. That we could have an "L-shaped" bottom, whereas we decline and just stay there for an extended period of time. That truly scares me, because it would make trading nearly impossible on a short-term basis.

Anyway, for now, I'll take a bet that this time is bad, but no different from past panics we've had, because greed will soon rear its beautiful head again.

NOTE: However, shit like this gives me pause...

Minutemen, "History Lesson Part 2"

The RO Report, "Death To The Market!" Edition

That's a 20-year graph of the Dow. Make sure to take note of the little blip back there in 1987, just to put things into perspective.

I'm not a mathematician, but I think back in 1987, we had a 38% move from the top to the bottom. Now, purely for fun, and acknowledging that we've already moved a huge amount from the top of the market, a 38% move from the start of this month would put us at around 5985 on the Dow... I think. Again, math isn't my thing.

But anyway, my point is that 7000 is no longer scary. This sell-off is way too controlled. We're heading into the 6000s. However, I'm not even sure how we'll get there. I mean, I guess C can go to $1, BAC could go to $5, and JPM could go to $12... I just hope they don't stay down there too long.

In short, everything is a big mess. It's hard to imagine how much lower stuff is going to go when everything already looks completely oversold (if we were in normal times). And again, when I start to feel like the end of the world is coming, it normally means we're due for a bounce soon.

My best case scenario for a meaningful, long term, bottom is a complete washout through 7000. I mean, blast it like it doesn't even matter, touch down at 6482 (I just like that number) and then shoot back above 7000, all in the same day. Then, hopefully, never look back, just like how in 1987 they never saw 1616 again.

At this point, if you're hoping something worse happens, you're really fucked up.

Speaking of fucked up, the RO saw more blood today. But again, our results are mixed. So the volatility is there, the opportunity is there, but it's not easy. The risk/reward ratios are not as favorable as they were even a month ago. "Trader A" (yes, he's still alive) explained to me that the Average True Range of the indices (based on a 5 period) is about half what it was a month ago. Additionally, volume is down.

Those two things together may go a long way towards explaining why short-term aggressive trading has been more difficult.

Anyway, out of 24 traders today, 15 were gross positive, or 63%. 8 traders lost more than $1,000 gross, and 12 traders made over $1,000 gross. Not bad on the face of it, but Traders B and D held hands and skipped together towards death, destructing the office.

Indeed, they took the term "Manservant" to a new level today.

I was #8 of 24. Happy enough, but I could have easily been in the top 5 had I a pair of balls.

Here are the Manservants:

"Chambermaid" - Trader B, -$52,792 on 614k shares traded.

2. Trader D, -$38,873 on 412k shares traded.
3. Trader H*, -$8,320 on 3,300 shares traded.
4. Trader C, -$2,493 on 64,600 shares traded.
5. Trader 10*, -$1,948 on 2,600 shares traded.

And the Bosses (congrats to A, N and Z for strong bouncebacks from yesterday):

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader A, $15,501 on 109k shares traded.

2. Trader N, $12,325 on 68,600 shares traded.
3. Trader Z, $11,062 on 147k shares traded.
4. Trader J, $5,472 on 86,400 shares traded.
5. Trader V, $5,008 on 72,400 shares traded.

Dylan Ratigan Questions Paulson's Integrity To Handle Bailout(s)

This is old, but on point, especially since we're considering more bailouts. Meanwhile, the anchorwoman pretty much is clueless. (h/t "Trader Z")

The White Stripes, "The Big Three Killed My Baby"

Let them fail.

Fuck Trading, I'm Becoming A Pirate!

I mean, check out this interview with a real life pirate... sounds like a nice guy. Just wants a little money.

They even eat with their hostages!

Q. [There are 20 crew members, most of them Ukrainian, being held hostage.] How are you interacting with the hostages? Eating with them? Playing cards?

A. We interact with each other in an honorable manner. We are all human beings. We talk to one another, and because we are in the same place, we eat together.

Strictly Business, "EPMD"

One of "Trader D's" many aliases is "Strictly Business." Another is "Mangina Wipe" but to my knowledge, there are no songs or bands with that name.

Nice day, D.

The RO Report, "Bailout" Edition

The RO made some bad decisions today and finished in the red. Especially "Trader A."

So tonight I come to you, hat in hand, asking for a bailout.

I mean, look, if "Trader A" has to take his loss today, it could have a negative psychological effect on him which could potentially lead to him trading less. Or he could start to lose money all the time. If this happened, the U.S Government would see an immediate tax revenue hit.

Moreover, should "Trader A" be allowed to fail, the NYSE would lose even more trading volume creating a worse liquidity problem for traders everywhere. This might appear to be inconsequential at first, but consider how added liquidity helps all traders and then you get at the scope of the problem... it's huge. If "Trader A" is not bailed out, traders everywhere will start to make less "cake."

End result? The US Government will lose even more tax revenue. Oh, and terrorism.

So again, while I don't ask you, my cherished readers, for much, tonight I ask you to bailout "Trader A."

All we need is $45,140 by tomorrow. I've done a quick calculation... Perhaps 700 of you will read this before midnight... would you shell out $64.48 to save the stock market? Sounds hefty? Well think of it like this... it's $64.48 tonight, but next month, it could cost you $876 billion.

I apologize for the serious tone I'm striking here, but it's your children's safety and happiness that we're talking about. You thought we were talking about a stock trader? No. Not at all. I'm talking to you about your children. Should you fail to cough up the $64.48, your children will die.

Anyway, out of 25 traders today, 13 were gross positive, or 52%. 8 traders made over $1,000 gross, and 8 traders lost over $1,000 gross. Again, we have volatility, but not an easy trading environment. Volume on the eminis came in at 2.8 million, not bad... so still not sure what's making this month more difficult than last.

I was #9 of 25, gross positive but net negative. Shitty.

The Manservants win. This is happening too much.

"Chambermaid" - Trader A, -$45,140 on 461k shares traded.

2. Trader N, -$16,313 on 60,600 shares traded.
3. Trader C, -$9,699 on 174k shares traded.
4. Trader Z, -$4,244 on 190k shares traded.
5. Trader H*, -$4,037 on 1,800 shares traded.

And the Bosses:

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader D, $17,884 on 167k shares traded.

2. Trader B, $4,767 on 478k shares traded.
3. Trader P, $2,430 on 49,114 shares traded.
4. Trader E, $2,339 on 89,200 shares traded.
5. Trader F, $2,086 on 98,600 shares traded.

NOTE: Attitude Trader is back with his Attitude Index. Check it.

Superchunk, "Slack Motherfucker"

Dedicated to myself, for being so damn lazy about posting these last couple of days.



The season is changing, I have a ridiculously large beard going, and I'm settling into winter. I'm not in the mood to just post shit, so you'll have to wait until I feel inspired again. Of course, the RO will be up as usual.

The RO Report, "The George Michael" Edition

Today, my blogging and trading was decidedly third-tier.

I'm not going to apologize though. I feel like I'm just getting back in touch with my roots a bit. You never want to forget where you came from.

I remember a week ago thinking that the market was dead and that I wouldn't ever be able to make money again. But then Thursday came and I made a shitload. I told myself, "I just need to be patient. Have to pick your spots in this market."

I felt smart for not overtrading the slow market of the previous week.

However, on Friday I gave back half of my gain from Thursday. I told myself, "Holy shit you're a fucking idiot." Then today I traded lightly and made $50. I don't have any great feeling about it. I'm not smart for making $50, and I'm not an idiot.

I'm Joe The Plumber. It sucks. I want my hair back.

Anyway, all day the RO bitched about the market action. I don't get it really, because we had a 200 point rip in the middle of the day followed by a 200 point tank at the end. We traded decent volume in the eminis, about 3.4 million shares. But for whatever reason, no one made great money.

In fact, the Manservants took the day, but largely because of "Trader D" and his new long term account, "Trader 10." In fact, since he was a double Chambermaid, the office coined a new term for this ultra-rare occurrence, "The George Michael."

Here are your Manservants:

"George Michael"
Trader 10*, -$8,825 on 24,100 shares traded.
Trader D, -$7,701 on 135k shares traded.

3. Trader H*, -$4,744 on 4,600 shares traded.
4. Trader C, -$2,760 on 73,000 shares traded.
5. Trader T, -$937 on 1,800 shares traded.

And the Bosses:

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader A, $4,910 on 71,400 shares traded.

2. Trader B, $3,907 on 315k shares traded.
3. Trader Z, $908 on 51,448 shares traded.
4. Trader E, $516 on 31,000 shares traded.
5. Trader N, $460 on 22,600 shares traded.

The Difference Between A Recession And A Depression

I found myself wondering what made these two terms different and I found the following joke. (The real answer involves numbers and boring shit.)

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job.

A depression is when you lose your job.

Another Person Who Shouldn't Trade

One of the better trading rules applies to this video. Disaster starts slowly.

David Guetta - "The World is Mine"

Ummm... NSFW. Apparently, "Trader N" is the resident pervert of the RO. Anyway, maybe he just likes the song...

The RO Report, "Deathed" Edition

The bloodletting is too heavy.

Today was my single worst day ever trading, and I think "Trader D's" worst day as well. It also may have been "Trader Z's" worst. Naturally, I blame "newequity."

We all had decent exposure to the market just after 3pm, when it really took a dive. The selling was so intense, and quick, that it didn't feel sustainable, and we were slow to exit our longs. In fact, I know I was adding a lot before I finally got washed out. As a little lesson, I took my loss with 20 minutes to go in the trading day... it was a hard loss to take, but it was the right thing to do.

The only consolation, is that we all did well yesterday. Truly, if you need life lessons in "impermanence" and the importance of always keeping perspective, trading is a great job to have.

These lessons aren't always easy to learn. In fact, they're downright painful lessons to learn.

Anyway, this day is over.

Out of 24 traders today, 5 were gross positive, or 21%. 14 traders lost over $1,000 gross while only 2 managed to make over $1,000 gross. It was a bloodbath, plain and simple. I was #18 of 24, or completely smoked.

The Manservants got their revenge on the Bosses today in a big way.

"Chambermaid" - Trader D, -$59,866 on 509k shares traded.

2. Trader H*, -$23,705 on 4,600 shares traded.
3. Trader Z, -$22,431 on 245k shares traded.
4. Trader C, -$11,730 on 165k shares traded.
5. Trader B, -$10,919 on 741k shares traded.

And the Bosses:

"Lucky Pierre" - Trader N, $3,213 on 76,000 shares traded.

2. Trader E, $1,442 on 112k shares traded.
3. Trader 9, $857 on 500 shares traded.
4. Trader 3, $140 on 15,800 shares traded.
5. Trader 7, $81 on 8,000 shares traded.

Got Smoked, Went Surfing

Back to see if the afternoon magic works once again...

Why "The Internets" Is Dangerous

I made a nice chunk today, took my family out for dinner and then, after that, met friends for drinks.

I came home slightly buzzed with my new Pitchfork 500 in my hands... one click purchasing could be a very expensive habit.

Now if I could only hook up this webcam...

Developing...