Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Sigh
Some background.
I started this blog in March after I took the worst 2 day smoking of my 8 year trading career. At that point, I was nearly through my capital. I battled back in March and ended the month down only a few hundred dollars, capital intact. It was the first month that I had ever lost money.
In April I don't recall having any big bomb days, but I lost again, my second down month in a row. So my loss was a little over $1000.
May has been a bit of a rollercoaster. There were times when I felt confident again and thought momentum was building. I had a couple of good days. But I've had a few recent bombs as well. Therefore I am in the red and close to halfway through my capital. The end of the month is near. We're in a holiday week, I just don't feel any big gains coming my way anytime soon.
If in March I was at some type of crossroads I'm not sure where I am right now... ever seen footage of the polar bears swimming around looking for some ice to hold onto? It's like that right now. I'm simply at a loss.
I'm not sure how much longer I can continue to munch at my savings account. I had some good years and saved good money but that was before I had a kid and felt this sudden surge of responsibility hit me. Every day I lose I kind of feel like she loses too. Continuing this slide feels irresponsible to me. I feel that soon I may have to swallow some pride and go sit in a gray cubicle somewhere pretending to be busy again for a steady paycheck.
Damn this is a depressing post. Well, fuck it, I'm depressed.
The silver lining is that my longer term account made some money today. The Fly's stock, MVIS took off a bit and another of mine, KOG, rose as well.
I'm considering taking off the rest of the week. You can't trade when you have no confidence.
Here's the stats:
P&L, -$1452
Best, DSL $53
Worst, FWLT, -$466
shares traded, 21,200
stocks traded, 13, 1 positive, 12 negative (that's so bad it's almost funny...)
total trades, 110
Virtual Office, $3012. Dow, -2.93, 13539.95.
Misstrade, $3830 on 10,400 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $815 on 19,200 shares traded.
One Bad-Ass Trader, $66 on 11,200 shares traded.
EvolutionTrader, -$247 on 57,800 shares traded.
Me, -$1452 on 21,200 shares traded.
Not a bad day for the VO, but a bad day for Dinosaurs.
Misstrade and Dehtrader lead the pack today. Congrats to MT on a nice bounce back day.
I could do no right today. I have no quick summary of the day's action because frankly, I have no idea what's going on anymore. This blog may be morphing into a discussion of employment opportunities for washed up stock traders soon... stay tuned.
Dan Deacon, "Drinking Out Of Cups"
You know those Geico commercials with the gecko? Well, apparently this lizard was the runner up. It's been hard for him to watch the gecko become world famous. He's understandably bitter... this is hilarious.
Anyway, you can find more from Dan Deacon over on the forkcast. Enjoy!
Monday, May 21, 2007
Al Gore On Good Morning America
Doesn't Diane Sawyer realize that she proves his point with every idiotic question she asked him?
How much do you weigh, she asks him? I don't know, how much do you THINK, Mrs. Sawyer?
If we had a real media our country wouldn't be in the mess it's in.
Sleepy Market, Sleepy Trader
Like I mentioned in my morning post, it was a long weekend here. What I failed to mention was that before I spent 17 straight hours in the field documenting bird species for a local environmental advocacy group I had only 2 hours of sleep because we had friends out for the weekend. So I woke up this morning feeling very groggy.
It worked out because I really traded lightly on a day where I otherwise would have over-traded.
My best stock of the day was again, TNH.
Although I really missed the money trade by getting long off the open. However, with the way this stock has been moving, I decided that was more of a missed dice roll than a missed trade.
Here are my trades:
9:55:03 Short 200 @ 85.87 (-200)
10:07:07 Buy 100 @ 86.39 (-100)
10:16:13 Buy 100 @ 84.80 (flat)
10:47:50 Buy 100 @ 84.94 (100)
13:04:11 Sell 100 @ 86.60 (flat)
Short and sweet. I made $218 in the stock and enjoyed a nice lunch out with a friend to boot.
Anyway, I traded TNH today just to basically "keep up" with the stock even though I knew I would be taking it easy today. He's been such a good mover and I didn't want to get out of the game. Basically, by trading him (however small or infrequent my positions were) I was forced to actively watch him. That will put me in a better position to trade him tomorrow should he be moving.
Although, I do expect that unless TNH can make a new high soon that the volatility will dry up in him. That's unfortunate, because right now I'll take volatility wherever I can find it.
Tonight I plan on sleeping well. Tomorrow I plan on trading.
Here's the stats:
P&L, $355
Best, TNH $218
Worst, DE -$62
shares traded, 12,200
stocks traded, 16, 9 positive, 7 negative
total trades, 109
Virtual Office, -$3226. Dow -13.65, 13542.88.
EvolutionTrader, $584 on 88,300 shares traded.
Me, $355 on 12,200 shares traded.
One Bad-Ass Trader, $88 on 13,400 shares traded.
Denarii, $19 on 1000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$54 on 19,500 shares traded.
Misstrade, -$4218 on 6400 shares traded.
Well, what can you say? It was a slow day. Not much going on. ET did his best to trade the heck out of the market to give it a boost, but despite his best efforts, the market was quiet and tired.
Misstrade ends a long string of really remarkable gains with a bit of a downer today. If it's any consolation MT, I think CROX are ugly as hell too.
Unfortunately, there really is a lack of economic data out this week and we're up against the Memorial Day holiday weekend. It could be a tumbleweed-blowing type of week. Perhaps this will give me some time to work on a new history post. We'll see.
Slow day... some more sick humor
"Oh, I think she's actually hurt there..."
Because I posted this, I am sure to have my wind knocked out soon...
141
That's the number of bird species I saw yesterday while taking part in a local "faunathon" to raise money for an environmental advocacy group.
We were out in the field by 3am searching for noctunal birds (like Chuck's Will-Widow and Barn Owl) and ended in a field at 8pm watching American Woodcocks display.
It was an amazing day. However, I'm completely shot today and I think I may be forced to trade very lightly.
Friday, May 18, 2007
A Happy Ending
Today was all about TNH again.
I went into the day short 100 shares of this freak. That was stupid. Worse, I added to the short position right after the open and got my face ripped off. It hurt, but finally, things made sense to me. It was not my job to be squeezed, it was my job to be the squeezer.
At around 10am, a small offer showed up in TNH at 90.94. A few days back when the stock nose-dived, an offer like this would send the stock right down. Today, it sent the stock down about 40 cents, but then it came right back up and took the offer out. That's when I decided that it was time to buy TNH all the way up to the early morning highs of 92.15.
Why? Because I knew there were a bunch of idiots like myself who saw the retracement in TNH from 78 up to 92 and decided that it was a good short. But things are never easy, especially in TNH, and that's why I knew they were going to have to feel more pain for the short to work.
Here's what I did once I figured that out:
10:08:51 Buy 200 @ 91.51 (200)
10:09:10 Buy 100 @ 91.50 (300)
10:09:24 Buy 100 @ 91.62 (400)
10:11:16 Buy 200 @ 91.20 (600)
10:16:24 Sell 100 @ 91.71 (this was actually a mistake... i meant to buy, 500)
10:16:52 Buy 200 @ 91.90 (700)
10:17:40 Sell 100 @ 92.32 (600)
10:19:57 Sell 100 @ 92.10 (500)
10:20:33 Sell 100 @ 92.31 (400)
10:23:51 Sell 200 @ 92.19 (200)
10:23:56 Sell 200 @ 92.04 (flat)
So at this point, my long trade was over. He had broken the early morning high and I expected him to reverse and head lower. POT was selling off and this added to my bearish feeling on the stock. So I entered limit orders at around 92.10, 92.15... but the stock broke below 92 and was heading south aggressively.
All I could do was to enter a market order. I was filled at 91.67. I hated this fill and so I covered very quickly. I covered 100 at 91.50, 91.20 and 91.40 and I was flat again. I entered Short limit orders above 91.80 and again, wasn't filled. The stock broke again and so I had to chase with a market order.
10:34:30 Short 100 @ 90.77 (-100)
10:38:19 Short 100 @ 90.60 (-200)
The next 20 minutes saw a spectacular selloff in the stock. But because the stock broke so quick and so suddenly I was unable to add to my position. This was very frustrating. I almost read the trade perfectly but I just didn't expect it to break so fast and hard.
10:57:55 Buy 100 @ 88.35 (-100)
10:59:05 Buy 100 @ 86.07 (flat)
In 2 minutes the stock dropped over 2 points! The thing had tanked down to 86 and now I was flat. I was also getting bullish. So, I had to start buying.
11:00:56 Buy 200 @ 85.42 (200)
11:01:42 Buy 100 @ 84.68 (300)
11:03:51 Sell 100 @ 85.69 (200)
11:03:54 Sell 100 @ 85.66 (100)
11:25:37 Sell 100 @ 84.91 (flat)
11:26:09 Buy 300 @ 83.69 (300)
11:32:33 Sell 100 @ 83.02 (200)
11:37:23 Sell 100 @ 82.76 (100)
11:38:59 Sell 100 @ 82.02 (flat)
11:42:23 Buy 100 @ 81.71 (100)
11:43:14 Buy 100 @ 82 (200)
11:45:53 Buy 100 @ 82.54 (300)
11:54:39 Sell 200 @ 83.65 (100)
12:00:12 Sell 100 @ 84.48 (flat)
12:23:19 Buy 200 @ 83.10 (200)
12:28:22 Sell 100 @ 83.70 (100)
12:29:01 Sell 100 @ 84.60 (flat)
And that was that. I didn't trade in the afternoon. I made good trades in TNH today after I lost on my first shorts. My total gains in TNH were $1214. I lost probably over $800 on my initial shorts, so really, once I got my act together, I made over $2000 trading him today. Of course, the potential to make so much more was there.
I'll miss TNH when the volatility goes away...
Anyway, here's the stats. I have to cut this short because we have friends staying the weekend who just showed up. I hate friends...
P&L, $715
Best, TNH $1214
Worst, DE -$330
shares traded, 25,800
stocks traded, 12, 3 positive, 9 negative (another awful ratio)
total trades, 186
Virtual Office, $3452. Dow, +79.81, 13556.53.
Misstrade, $2849 on 4300 shares traded.
Me, $715 on 25,800 shares traded.
One Bad-Ass Trader, $82 on 12,800 shares traded.
EvolutionTrader, $82 on 63,800 shares traded.
Denarii, $8 on 4000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$284 on 18,400 shares traded.
Largely a green day for the VO. A nice way to end the week. Not bad volume either.
Will the market ever go down again?
One reminder... If you click on the name of the trader, you will be directed to their website. There, you can read that trader's daily post about how they made (or lost) their money today.
My daily post is forthcoming.
Enjoy your weekend,
-DT
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Ministry, "Thieves"
I plan on alienating any female readership I have by posting this song.
But hey, last week I posted Joanna Newsom!
Joanna Newsom at a Ministry concert... there's an interesting idea.
I Threw Up A Little In My Mouth
Today was disgusting.
This job is so harrowing. You're on a roll, making money and then BAM! you get hit.
Yesterday, I made money by trading DE and AG together. Today, I got smoked doing the exact same thing. Shorting AG today because of the weakness in DE cost me over $619.
I could have bought a nice lawnmower with $619. Better yet, I could have paid a landscaping service to mow my lawn all summer. Sigh...
I did make money in DE, shorting the weakness that he was clearly exhibiting. But sometimes, I guess you have to step back and watch stocks individually. AG wasn't showing weakness. I remember it was very clear to me right off the open because I short some and was trying to buy back some shares with a limit order at 41.80. He just wouldn't hit 41.80 and he never looked back. He rallied from that point on. AG rallied from 9:50am until the close.
Ben Bernanke didn't help me today either, or was it the LEI? I dunno, all I know is that at 10:00am I was short everything and I got squeezed in everything. It was awful. UBB and POT squeezed the bejesus out of me. It was awful.
Anyway, the one stock I really made any money in today was DE. So, for your reading enjoyment, here are my trades in DE.
10:23:46 Short 500 @ 118.59 (-500)
10:31:02 Buy 100 @ 118.52 (-400)
10:33:27 Short 200 @ 118.26 (-600)
10:34:03 Buy 200 @ 118.05 (-400)
10:37:56 Buy 100 @ 117.91 (-300)
10:43:09 Short 200 @ 118.19 (-500)
10:44:14 Short 100 @ 118.03 (-600)
10:47:40 Buy 400 @ 117.84 (-200)
10:51:14 Short 100 @ 118.34 (-300)
10:56:22 Buy 100 @ 117.81 (-200)
10:56:43 Buy 200 @ 117.84 (flat)
10:56:45 Buy 400 @ 117.90 (400)
10:57:05 Sell 200 @ 117.84 (200)
10:57:14 Sell 200 @ 117.91 (flat)
14:21:49 Buy 100 @ 117.61 (100)
14:21:54 Buy 200 @ 117.56 (300)
14:21:57 Buy 300 @ 117.58 (600)
14:24:21 Sell 200 @ 117.61 (400)
14:24:36 Sell 100 @ 117.63 (300)
14:25:06 Sell 300 @ 117.58 (flat)
14:42:39 Buy 200 @ 117.69 (200)
14:42:51 Buy 100 @ 117.72 (300)
14:45:31 Buy 100 @ 117.66 (400)
14:45:51 Buy 100 @ 117.69 (500)
14:56:33 Sell 100 @ 117.79 (400)
14:58:26 Sell 100 @ 117.90 (300)
15:09:43 Sell 300 @ 117.88 (flat)
Anyway, with that, I'm putting this day behind me. I'm looking forward to ending the week green tomorrow.
Here's the stats:
P&L -$1467
Best, DE $549
Worst, AG -$619
shares traded, 60,800
stocks traded, 23, 6 positive, 17 negative (bloody ratio)
total trades, 333
Virtual Office, $719. Dow, -10.81, 13476.72.
Misstrade, $2480 on 4700 shares traded.
EvolutionTrader, $657 on 40,600 shares traded.
Denarii, -$55 on 2000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$426 on 7000 shares traded.
One Bad-Ass Trader, -$470 on 23,600 shares traded.
Me, -$1467 on 60,800 shares traded.
And this after a day the whole VO was green for the first time ever...
I'm honestly shocked that anyone figured out how to make money today. I got smoked on my shorts and chopped in my longs. Congrats to Misstrade and ET for putting up some nice numbers in a tough market to trade.
For the rest of us poor slobs, there's always tomorrow.
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