The Beatles, "I Am The Walrus"
This week's music video theme is "the 60's!" OOOH! AHHHHHH!
Monday, February 4, 2008
Let Your Winners Run!!!
I guess what I'm finding is that I find it easier to cut my losses than to let my winners run. Today I had a couple of trades that would have worked out quite nicely had I been a little slower to take profits.
The first was in TIF.
See that 3rd bar? The big green one? I got short there, at around $40.36, 500 shares. I covered 100 at $40.15, 100 at $40.08 and 100 at $40. The first 200 were by design. I'm trying to boost my size again and the way I'm working at it is by selling 400 or 500 and then covering 100 or 200 when I'm 20 cents in the money or so. Then, I hope to be more comfortable holding the other 300... to let them run.
So in the case of TIF, I could have just put my remaining 200 shares up at $40.37 and been assured of a winner on the day. Instead, I covered my remaining 200 at around $39.65. So I made a couple hundred in the stock, but I could have made another easy point on those 200 shares, thereby doubling my profits without any pain, had I just held.
Same problem with TUP, a trade that I nonetheless feel really good about.
$38 was a fairly important level in TUP on Friday. This morning, I noticed it couldn't really gain much traction off the open and had a very bearish second candle. Volume was picking up as it slowly head down, so I short a small amount, 200 shares in anticipation of it breaking the $38 level.
When it did, I added another 300 shares to my position at around $37.85. So far, so good. I wanted to add more, but the stock never really got up near $38 again. However, again, I covered early. By 11:00 I was out of 400 of my 500 shares at around $37.50. I let that last 100 run another quarter until I was too anxious to "lock in" that profit and covered at $37.27.
Again, the stock dropped from that level. It would have been very easy to hold and cover the entire position well south of $37.
LET YOUR WINNERS RUN!
Anyway, other than that, I thought the day was really slow. We only traded 1.3 billion shares on the NYSE today... that's like holiday levels of trade. Not sure why it was so slow. But I'm happy that I'm disappointed at myself when I'm making $100. It beats the hell out of being disappointed at myself for being down $100.
I know that as long as I keep staying green that the bigger days will come. They always do.
Here's the stats:
P&L, $105
Best, TUP, $320
Worst, VMC, -$165
9200 shares traded.
12 stocks traded. 5 winners, 7 losers.
Virtual Office, -$1710. SPX, -16.10, 1381.00.
Evolution, $1170 on 44,000 shares traded.
Tim Sykes, $202 on 200 shares traded.
Me, $105 on 9200 shares traded.
Misstrade, no trades.
Retardo, no trades.
Wincity, no trades.
OBAT, -$190 on 13,200 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$635 on 20,000 shares traded.
Dehtrader, -$2362 on 4100 shares traded.
Holy shit today sucked. Where'd the volume go?
Suddenly, the market is in suck mode. Hopefully, it wakes up tomorrow. If not, it could be a long boring week.
Maybe everyone is watching and waiting to see what happens in the primaries... I don't know. I didn't really see "Super Tuesday" as a catalyst for stock market movement, but I guess it's possible.
Super Tuesday... Super Bowl... can't we get some new words around here to describe big events?
What I do know is that the volume today was completely pathetic. We didn't even get close to trading 1.5 billion shares on the NYSE. I don't think it has been this slow since the holidays.
Anyway, so we have a new member of the VO, Timothy Sykes. Some of you like him, some of you don't. He's "controversial..." dude went short Wallstrip... who does that?
Meanwhile, I'm currently in negotiations with other famous people so that I can start a "Celebrity VO." First on my list... Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson... Not many people know this about "Hank" but he churns the shit out of his Schwab account.
True story.
Timothy Sykes, "Blingmaster", Newest Member Of The VO
His story is now well known.
He was on Wall Street Warriors, he wrote a book, he was on CNBC, he sometimes drinks and curses a lot, and most recently, he was interviewed by the beautiful Julia from Wallstrip... but there was something nagging Tim Sykes.
He had not yet conquered Dinosaur Trader's Virtual Office.
So with that said, he immediately becomes the second most famous person in the VO (after me of course, and just ahead of Misstrade).
He had not yet conquered Dinosaur Trader's Virtual Office.
So with that said, he immediately becomes the second most famous person in the VO (after me of course, and just ahead of Misstrade).
He told me his specific goal in joining the VO is to take down resident tough guy, Sanglucci. He said, "I'm going to ruin that fucker. I'm the 'blingmaster' around here."
No word yet from Sanglucci.
Anyway, sure, he's controversial, but when has the VO ever backed away from a little controversy? Go say hi to our newest member!
Anyway, sure, he's controversial, but when has the VO ever backed away from a little controversy? Go say hi to our newest member!
Morning Link Love
- Traders predict US dollar will benefit from rate cuts. I know nothing.
- McCain says, "My friends" for millionth time in campaign. Super Tuesday tomorrow!
- Google cozies up to Yahoo; pisses off Microsoft.
- Which was the best Superbowl Ad? View them all here and vote too.
- Stewie sees some bullish sector charts.
- Just in case you missed this (because you were watching the Superbowl) COAL!
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Coal: Black Crack.
Perhaps my title is overstating things... anyway, lately people can't get enough of the stuff.
For those few, lonely souls who aren't watching the goddamn Super Bowl, check out Woody's post on the coal sector. Good stuff.
The Super Bowl Is Gay
That's right.
BONUS SUPERBOWL OBSERVATION: Joe Buck's head is enormously large. Way out of proportion to the rest of his body.
A Beautiful Morning
I woke up this morning to go surfing. The conditions were perfect for me and my longboard. A nice, clean and glassy, 4 foot swell. Really mellow. Although the water temperature is now sub 40 degrees, it didn't feel cold at all because there was absolutely no wind and the air temperature was pleasant.
It felt like spring.
The coolest thing was when a harbor seal poked his head up out of the water about 20 feet from where I was sitting on my board.
So a couple of times after I caught rides I had to paddle all the way back out from the inside. It was somewhat challenging, because I'm still not in great shape. My lungs are still feeling the effects of a month-long bout of bronchitis. When I was in that position, I thought of a quote I read when I was browsing around late Friday night.
"Fall seven times. Stand up eight."
-Japanese proverb
Its worth in terms of getting through trading and trading slumps, is obvious.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
The Library Rules
So after work, Judy left immediately to go to a dance performance with a friend and I took our daughter out to dinner with some friends. We got home, played, and then I put her to bed.
This was at 8pm. I fell asleep until 10:30. (And thus, you get a 1am "special.")
I woke up, and started writing my daily blog post. Afterwards, I surfed my blogroll and stopped over at Wall Street Warrior. From there, I found Trader-X (his annotated charts are newly blogrolled).
Shortly after, I was on the verge of buying $125 Fibonacci stuff and self-help books.
Luckily, (remember, I'm still struggling here) I moved on and quelled my desire to purchase by visiting my public library's site and picking up some good books.
This is what taxes are for people...
I ordered Steve Nison's "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" from the inter-loan library system of my public library.
Anyway, I expect by this time next year I'll be a freaking millionaire. The market should just send me a check to make it easier for everyone involved.
However, I also ordered "The Great Crash of 1929" by John Kenneth Galbraith. Just to keep myself steady.
Hope your weekend started right.
NOTE: My weekend has started in grand fashion as I woke up this morning to a fresh attack from another stock blogger. Seriously though, I relish an attack from Ragin Cajun. It gives me another chance to embarrass him...
Friday, February 1, 2008
Flaming Lips, "Slow Nerve Action"
Here's an example of why Youtube is great. I love this song, yet there's no official video. This guy made a really nice video for it, where before none existed. Kudos, moody walking dude.
Daytrading As A Spiritual Practice
The other day, in one of the comment sections here, I told someone that daytrading is analogous to a spiritual practice.
Sounds funny, I know, but it's true.
I mean, I write down these rules, all of the age-old daytrading adages, like, (add booming voice of God coming down from mountain), "let your profits run young man, but cut your losers" yet I still make the same mistakes.
I have the wisdom, it's just hard to implement it in the reality of the market moving. It's so easy to look back at static graphs and no where you went wrong. But when the futures are moving one way, ticks are moving another and news is constantly hitting, it's hard to keep your presence and perspective.
It's like "love thy neighbor." I mean, okay, I get it, but when I get cut off by some shithead driving a Hummer and talking on a cell phone, it's a good thing I don't carry a gun.
I freak out. I lose my presence and perspective. 10 minutes later I can look back and know that throwing my water bottle against my windshield only hurt myself and not the Hummer shitcake, but that doesn't help me in the heat of the moment.
So here are two trades that I wish I could make again.
First off, LFG. It was as perfect an afternoon play as any.
I bought 200 shares at $49.85 at 2:41 in anticipation of a move up to the figure. So far, so good. The most the trade moved against me was 22 cents. Now here's where I begin to fuck up. At 2:50, I sell 100 shares at $49.90 locking in the 5 cents of profit... YES! And then, at 3:16 I sell my last 100 shares "all the way up" at $50.13. Total profit, $32.
Meanwhile, look at the move! I should have made a straight point on my shares without question! There was never a reason for me to sell. The market wasn't coming in. Furthermore, I should have added to my position when the market broke $50 and then came back on light volume. In other words, I made $32 on a trade that I should have made hundreds of dollars on. It was an easy trade. My execution is all wrong.
Here's another, MTW. While this trade wasn't as perfect, still, it should have brought me more money than I let it bring.
Again, I bought 200 shares in anticipation of a breakout at 2:20. The stock had been in a long tight base and the market was moving higher. Volume started increasing to the upside. And here's where I screwed it up. I sold 100 shares at $38.65 and the other 100 at $38.72. Why? I don't know. Again, here's a trade that didn't even run a dime against me yet the moment it ran a little in my favor I locked in the profit, $37.
In this trade, I'm not as upset that I didn't buy more because the position never really tested the base. It just ran. Here, I'm upset that I didn't have the patience or the confidence to let a winner run.
Here's a final analogy for you Seinfeld fans. Remember the episode where Jerry makes a plane reservation but then his seat is sold anyway? He gets into an argument with the ticket representative and repeats over and over to her, "You see? You can take the reservation, but you can't hold the reservation..."
It's like that.
Anyway, I can't get into the system to give all the stats. Enjoy your weekend. I'll post here once or twice this weekend, so check back.
P&L, $155
27,600 shares traded.
NOTE: Again, I apologize if there are egregious spelling errors in this post. Spellcheck isn't working. WTF, blogger?
Virtual Office, $2396. SPX +17.40, 1397.00.
OBAT, $830 on 7600 shares traded.
Evolution, $808 on 64,800 shares traded.
Retardo, $796 on 2 contracts traded.
Me, $155 on 27,600 shares traded.
Dehtrader, $51 on 2328 shares traded.
Wincity, $35 on 200 shares traded.
Denarii, -$44 on 3100 shares traded.
Sanglucci, -$235 on 39,600 shares traded.
And we have a new leader!
OBAT has been on a real roll lately. It was a real dogfight at the top of the VO today too. Good job, guys.
I felt that it was a slow day today, but that didn't stop people in my office from making thousands of dollars. We traded 1.8 billion shares today on the NYSE and the VIX fell 2 points to close just over 24.
I'll post a little this weekend, so be sure to stop by.
UPDATE: It's 10:53. Judy went to a dance performance tonight and I was babysitter in chief. I fell asleep with my daughter when I put her to sleep! So now I'm wide awake. Daily post forthcoming...
Luna, "Time To Quit"
Art Cashin's Comments, February 1st, 2008
On the Microsoft Yahoo deal
I think the MSFT deal is a defensive move, only a counter attack against GOOG.
On the futures giveback after th jobs data
By the end of the day, Goldilocks will throw down a few Prozacs and have a few cosmopolitans as well.
Has anything altered your short-term view?
No. The underlying technicals are still short-term weak. Though this oversold rally has lasted far longer than I thought it would. I also failed to anticipate that the MBIA conference call, with only written questions, could only provide positive headlines.
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